Kiley McDaniel has posted his first mock for the 2013 MLB Draft and passes along some potentially interesting machinations from behind the scenes. Dmick has previously addressed the possibility that the Astros could once again pass on Mark Appel, but McDaniel doesn’t think it will happen:
Last year, there was a large top group of talent with varying price tags that allowed the Astros to be creative. This year there’s a top group of two players: Appel & Gray. Appel has a better frame, arm action, delivery, track record and projectability along with a wider base of skills. Right now they may be comparable prospects, but scouts prefer Appel going forward… With a weaker crop to spend savings later from this pick, Gray will need to come in well below Appel’s price tag to get serious consideration here, but he doesn’t have the motivation to do that as he’ll get paid just fine going second.
If the Astros have the same feelings as McDaniel, they will probably take him first overall and offer slot value. However, McDaniel also hears that the Cubs are very high on Appel, which could push them towards drastic actions:
This could create a situation where the Cubs could float a full slot or above slot number to Appel to see if they can play the signability game to get him slide to them.
The signability card used to be wielded by draft candidates with some regularity in order for them to get more money, but the current CBA makes that very difficult. Could the Cubs and Appel feasibly strongarm the Astros into passing on Apple under the current system? I do think it’s possible.
For this exercise, let’s assume that the Astros would offer slot value for Appel, but no more (keeping in mind they set a hard line at significantly less than slot for their top pick last year). If the Cubs really wanted to go all in, it would have to look something like this:
1. Make it clear to Appel that they will offer significantly more than #1 slot value.
This would require significant sacrifice on the part of the Cubs. The difference between the slot value of the #1 and #2 picks is about $1.1 million. The Cubs could offer up a 5% overslot for their entire draft budget (approximately $0.5 million) to close that gap to $0.6 million. In addition, they would need to essentially punt on other early selections in the draft. The slot value of their second pick is $1.4 million. Taking an extremely signable college senior at that slot would allow them to devote nearly the entirety of that money to an Appel offer and substantially top the slot value for the #1 overall pick. They could do the same for a combination of their third and fourth round picks, or their fourth through seventh picks, or fifth through tenth, etc…
2. Convince Appel to take a hard line with the Astros.
Appel is advised by Scott Boras, which is really all that needs to be said. The Appel/Boras duo played hardball last year, and could well do the same this year if given assurances by the Cubs. They have limited leverage, but not none. No team wants to risk giving up a year’s worth of development time on a prospect when there are other good options available.
Would it be worth it for the Cubs to sacrifice #41 overall to “move up” from #2 to #1? Historically, yes. In the 2013 MLB draft? I have no idea. If Appel really grades out that much better than Gray, it’s probably a decent bet. To take some recent examples, is upgrading from (#2) Dustin Ackley to (#1) Stephen Strasburg worth (#41) Chris Owings? Of course. Is it worth (#40) Tyler Skaggs or (#42) Garrett Richards? Still yes. How about upgrading from Danny Hultzen to Gerrit Cole (prior to Hultzen’s injury)? Is it worth (#40) Jackie Bradley Jr.? Maybe not.
Comments
I think historically that the gap between #1 and #2 is quite a bit higher than the #41 pick. Honestly, I’d be willing to overslot Appel (if the Cubs think he’s the significant best player) to the point of just being forced to take Hayden Simpson with #41. Anyone at #41 is no guarantee anyway (unless you have signability issues, a moot point anyways in this CBA)
MylesQuote Reply
Can there be that much maneuvering before a draft? I was thinking there rules against the stuff, but I actually don’t know.
joshQuote Reply
I’d be willing to do it, but I don’t think looking at Strasburg/Ackley is a fair comparison to Appel/Gray. Strasburg was far and away the best prospect and someone that would have gone number 1 in drafts if you made a best of draft board. The same is true the following year with Bryce Harper. Those were unusual drafts.
I remember that people kept saying that the drop off in talent was discouraging and I’m thinking, duh. You’ve got two all-time great draft prospects in consecutive years. If the rest of either of those drafts doesn’t have a huge drop in talent, we’re looking at easily the best draft class ever.
A fairer comparison may be Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen. Tyler Goeddel went 41st that year and he’s not very good.
Like I said, I’d do it. I don’t think it will happen. either the Astros want to take Appel and do or they pass. I don’t think the Cubs or any backroom agreements are going to push the Astros in another direction. This assumes the Cubs don’t go way overslot and give up future top picks and pay huge penalties. If they’re going to do that, all bets are off. Also, if they’re going to do that, they’re stupid.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
You can’t reach a deal with another team on a contract (can’t sign the damn thing), but you can talk to them to see what kind of money it’s going to take to sign them. Before the new CBA, there was a ton of this stuff going on.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
yeah, i wanted to present recent examples on both on both ends of the spectrum. cole/hultzen is probably closer to this year’s case. although, ackley was really highly regarded.
GWQuote Reply
Sorry, the idea of strong-arming Houston to get a Boras client makes no sense to me. It seems more likely that Houston will choose Gray to avoid being strong-armed by Boras. Houston has a very long way to go before they’re rebuilt. They need lots of players. The problems with dealing with Appel/Boras seem out of place at this point for Houston.
P. HertzQuote Reply
P. Hertz wrote:
uhh… yeah. that’s the premise of the hypothetical
GWQuote Reply
One thing to consider about Houston and Appel in last year’s draft. Houston simply didn’t want to give Appel slot value. It wasn’t that they didn’t think he was the best player. They just didn’t think he, or anyone else, was worth slot. The Astros weren’t alone. Several draft prospect analysts thought the same thing.
Because they didn’t think he was all that, they wanted to get creative in a draft where there was no elite talent even worth slot. Anyone who has seen Appel this year has said he’s much better. Appel wasn’t the number 1 prospect in all the lists, but he is this year. He’s basically become good enough to become a unanimous number 1 prospect in the draft.
My guess would be that the Astros won’t have a hard time giving him slot this time around. I’d also guess that there’s a relatively slim chance he falls to the Cubs. I’d say that chance rests on the Cubs willingness to pay a luxury tax and/or lose next year’s first round draft pick. If Boras and Appel have good reason to believe the Cubs are going way over slot for him then they may just tell Houston to draft someone else.
It’s also important to point out that it was not Boras playing hardball last year. It was the Astros.
dmick89Quote Reply
I mentioned it before, but one thing we can’t know is whether or not Houston just wants nothing to do with Appel. As for Boras, they don’t have a choice. He’s an agent for many of baseball’s best draft prospects and baseball’s best players. He’s a necessary evil, but Appel isn’t.
dmick89Quote Reply
For weeks last year it seemed as though Appel to Houston was a foregone conclusion and then in the last minutes that changed. Here’s to hoping the Astros believed they had a deal with Appel and feel pissed off that he backed out at the last minute.
I’d think we’d have heard about that if it happened that way, but maybe it did.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Well, initially. Then Boras played hardball with each of the teams in the successive picks, and ultimately with the Pirates.
GWQuote Reply
Watching the Nats game, heard this exchange between their announcers:
PBP: “Cubbies coming into town for a three game set.”
Color: “We’re going to see Samardzija, ……………………. that one guy who used to pitch for the Nats…”
PBP: “Edwin Jackson taking on Stephen Strasburg on Saturday.”
[PBP goes on brief aside comparing Samardzija to Strasburg in that they both have impressive peripherals with poor W-L records]
Color: “Heard a couple people talking about Edwin Jackson this morning. We miss that guy.”
(dying laughing) Sounds like it. Couldn’t even remember his name.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
yep. additionally, they may well like Gray as much. he’s a big righty that sits in the high 90s. they could probably save a half million or so buy going with him if they wanted too, anyway.
GWQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/35676/andrelton-simmons-makes-all-the-plays
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
True, but I don’t think he did anything that any other agent wouldn’t have done in that situation.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
Gray is probably just a bit behind Appel as far as reaching the big leagues go. That could appeal to Houston. And it’s also possible they throw another curveball and do something similar to what they did last year. We could learn down the road that was more by design and not because they couldn’t get Appel to sign for well under slot. Wouldn’t surprise me.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s interesting to think about. I don’t know if they do it though.
I’ve heard rumors they may not even take one of the pitchers. Don’t know how accurate that might be, but that’s the rumblings I’ve heard.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Normally I’m not a big fan of taking pitchers with your top pick, but this year I think they have to. There’s a fairly big drop after Appel and Gray. If the Cubs are actually serious about contending anytime in the next 5 years, those two are the guys you want to target. If they’re thinking 6 years and later, take someone else.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I’m not so sure of that. Going back to school was a pretty big risk for him. I think it’s clear that the Boras camp took the stance that he was by far the best player available, whereas the general consensus was that he was closer to a group of top talents. Other agents could well have acknowledged that the leverage just isn’t what it used to be.
GWQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/mlbs-crappy-replay-tech-its-a-miracle-umps-ever-get-499041275
GBTSQuote Reply
Random fact: the total number of games played between the highest-paid NL player and the highest-paid AL player this year is 0.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Pass pass pass. I would not sacrifice later round picks for Appel. The MLB draft is a crapshoot. You can find Hall of Fame talent beyond the 10th round. Look at Albert Pujols.
/Yellon’d
GBTSQuote Reply
I just realized that the two reigning Cy Young winners are squaring off in Tampa right now. Only the 3rd time in history that’s happened.
GBTSQuote Reply
Something about an illegal pitching change in Houston. Game under protest. Hoo boy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
You Never Know.
BerseliusQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-5-9-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply