2013 MLB Draft: Live Draft Thread- Surprise! Cubs Take Kris Bryant

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by GW72 Comments

2013-MLB-draft1Draft Coverage

The 2013 MLB Draft kicks off at 6pm on MLB Network. The first two rounds are tonight. Pre-draft coverage is already underway. Unfortunately, Greg Amsinger is hosting rather than Brian Kenny. And as always, it seems, the guys who really know what’s going on are more or less marginalized. Peter Gammons, Harold Reynolds, and John Hart are at the main table. More Jim Callis, please. Can’t argue with the video highlights, though.

I’lll update this thread with analysis of the Cubs’ picks at #2 and #41 as the night progresses. OV draft archives are here.

Late Breaking News

Not much, really. Jonathan Mayo mentions that Kohl Stewart’s name has cropped up in the conversation for 1-1.

 

It will be interesting to see how seriously the Cubs take the position player over pitching philosophy. I’m guessing not very, and they end up with one of the college pitchers, and things play out mostly as has been predicted. Pitch f/x guru Harry Pavlidis, on the other hand thinks that the first 10 picks could play out very differently than everyone is expecting (h/t MO):

 

UPDATES

1. The Astros go with Appel. Oh, well.

2. Shocker! The Cubs passed on the live-armed Gray and went with Kris Bryant, the powerful third basemen from the University of San Diego.

Kris Bryant

From BA:

Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball’s premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant’s best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he’ll be better than that. Bryant’s arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he’ll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.

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  1. Author
    GW

    @ Nate:

    looks like that originated with danny knobler at CBS.

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  2. dmick89

    I gotta admit, I like the Cubs drafting early in the 1st round. However, I very much look forward to the years in which they draft very low in the 1st round. Hopefully the Cubs will eventually be drafting in the upper 20s on a consistent basis. Except for some arb picks. Lots of them, please.

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  3. Suburban kid

    The Baseball America logo font has to be the most mis-matched design choice ever. There is nothing about that Gael font that says “baseball” or “America” to me.

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  4. dmick89

    @ Nate:
    I think they take a pitcher. Considering how shitty the Cubs pitching is in the minors, I think there would have to be quite a difference in talent to take Bryant. Not that I won’t be happy. I will be. You can easily argue he’s the best talent in the draft. He needs a lot more work than Appel and Gray, but that 70 to 80 power is special.

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  5. Nate

    @ dmick89:

    Yea, I really hope they go pitcher. I’m just partial to Appel because I think he’s the best based on almost nothing (dying laughing). Yea it will be fine whoever they get. Maybe if they get Bryant they can trade Soler for David Price or some shit. I just want them to get good players, and compared to the Hendry years, at least I’m not nervous we’re getting a nasty case of mono in the first round.

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  6. Suburban kid

    @ dmick89:
    I like when they showed their draft room when the clock started and no one was doing anything except one guy on the phone, probably telling their guy in the studio who the pick is.

    Four minutes of our lives gone.

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  7. dmick89

    @ Nate:
    I like Appel because he seems to be the closest to the big leagues. Gray isn’t far behind. I worry about Bryant needing several years in the minors due to the skills he needs to improve. I think it’s relatively safe to expect that Appel sees the big leagues late next year. Gray too.

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  8. Mercurial Outfielder

    Source: TX, BOS, Cubs, LAD among seven teams with serious interest in Cuban pitching prospect Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez MLB.com— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) June 6, 2013

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  9. dmick89

    I really don’t want to leave this first round with the Cubs top pitching prospect still being Arodys Vizcaino and Dillon Maples. Pierce Johnson is off to a fantastic start. Pretty sure Dave and I rated him higher than the Maples, but he doesn’t have the highest ceiling.

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  10. Mercurial Outfielder

    More from Harry, via Twitter:

    I feel like the 2nd pick will be one of a few good things. It’s 41 and 75 that are gonna make or break this draft.

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  11. dmick89

    This makes the left side of the infield a little clogged. I assume Baez will move to 3rd at some point. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs move Bryant to RF.

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  12. dmick89

    GW, Huge thanks for doing this. I was disappointed when I finally realized I wouldn’t be able to do it. I’ve always really liked this day so thanks for picking up the slack.

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  13. shawndgoldman

    I approve. I don’t know shit, but I approve. His numbers this year were ridiculous. Does anyone track things like OPS+ for college baseball? I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers were Bondsian. (Not that it means he’ll be Bonds, just that they’re that ridiculous.)

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  14. Mercurial Outfielder

    My guess is Cubs will keep Bryant at 3B for as long as they can, but they actually project him as a corner OF.

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  15. uncle dave

    Harold Reynolds is kind of a dolt.

    I don’t think there’s much to separate Grey and Bryant, and am happy that they at least got one of the two. They were suppoosedly the highest-upside college pitcher and player, so I guess it just boils down to how you evaluate player development/injury risk. Tough to go wrong here, though.

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  16. shawndgoldman

    In 2013, Bryant had a BB/K ratio of 0.6. He walked more than he struck out. His OBP was .500 and OPS 1360 without an absurd BABIP (.292). This, after the move to wooden bats.

    I don’t care where they play him. Those are eye-popping numbers.

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  17. shawndgoldman

    I don’t think you can say he’s the best hitting prospect on the team, but I think you can say he has the best statistical track record, for whatever little that’s worth w.r.t. prospects. And unlike many of the other Cubs prospects, this guy has very good command of the strike zone.

    I like.

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  18. uncle dave

    @ GW:
    I like the .295 BABIP with a .340 BA he had this year. (Not from a scouting perspective, but just as an oddity.)

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  19. Nate

    After hearing Appel talk all jesus on tv, i’m less disappointed. Hopefully the Cubs can hit a shit-ton in 2015.

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  20. Myles

    I don’t love the pick but you almost can’t draft for need this high. I think it’s clear that either the Cubs value Bryant more than most, or that Gray values himself more than the Cubs do.

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  21. Berselius

    @ Myles:

    I wanted Appel, but I’m fine with this pick. Unless it’s someone who’s as close as Appel is to the majors anyway, BPA is probably more important. The Cubs can trade some of their glut of bats for arms when they need to anyway, and have $$ to pay for FA pitching.

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  22. uncle dave

    @ Myles:
    I think in baseball you almost always have to go with the best available. There’s so much uncertainty between draft day and the time a guy is scheduled to reach the majors that it’s difficult to even know what your needs three or four years down the road will be. That might not be the case in other sports, though I admit a bias towards best available even in something like the NFL, where guys play immediately.

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  23. Author
    GW

    “I changed my approach a little this year. The biggest thing I did coming into the year was just focus on the mistake pitch that pitchers are going to throw. I realized that I wasn’t going to get too much to hit…but I think I did a good job all year of just hitting that pitch that came over the white.”

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  24. sitrick

    GW wrote:

    “I changed my approach a little this year. The biggest thing I did coming into the year was just focus on the mistake pitch that pitchers are going to throw. I realized that I wasn’t going to get too much to hit…but I think I did a good job all year of just hitting that pitch that came over the white.”

    I just blue myself prematurely.

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  25. dmick89

    @ shawndgoldman:
    Here are Bryant’s grades from ESPN (I would assume that Keith Law is largely responsible for these)

    Skill: Present, Future
    Hitting: 45, 45
    Power: 70, 70
    Plate Discipline: 50, 55
    Running Speed: 40, 40
    Fielding Range: 45, 45
    Arm Strength: 55, 55

    And the scouting report

    Bryant was a possible first-rounder out of high school — I had him ranked 29th in that draft class — but fell due to signability concerns and a middling performance in his senior year. He largely resolved the latter issue as a freshman for the Toreros, raking for three straight years now.

    He sets up with a very wide base and has no stride, just a toe-tap for timing. It’s a quiet swing overall, with excellent hip rotation for power, but his bat speed is just average or a tick better and I worry about his contact rates when he’s consistently facing guys throwing 90-plus in pro ball. He can murder a good fastball but I’m not sure how he’ll react to better off-speed stuff in the pros.

    Now a third baseman, Bryant may not stay in the infield at all — he’s most likely to end up in right field, but would probably be above-average or better there, and I think there’s a non-zero chance he stays at third, where he has plenty of arm and some athleticism but doesn’t have the quick reactions a third baseman needs.

    He’s probably a low-average/high-power hitter down the road, with a ceiling of .260-.270 averages (and likely less) but 30-homer potential as well, and I expect him to go in the first five picks.

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  26. dmick89

    Myles wrote:

    I don’t love the pick but you almost can’t draft for need this high. I think it’s clear that either the Cubs value Bryant more than most, or that Gray values himself more than the Cubs do.

    I’m perfectly happy with the pick. Like GW, I’d have preferred the Cubs have their choice of Appel, Gray and Bryant. I think it’s fairly clearly they wanted Appel and ended up taking a bit longer to make the choice than the 5 minutes they were allowed. They were probably surprised Appel was taken and were flipping coins on the other two. Since Appel was off the board, I think you have to be pretty happy with the pick. The Cubs think he’s better than Gray and that’s good enough for me.

    I like it even though I really wanted to leave this 1st round with a better pitching prospect atop the Cubs rankings than Vizcaino and Maples. Pierce Johnson has probably separated himself at this point anyway.

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  27. dmick89

    So if Bryant stays at 3rd (and I’d assume he will for now), he’ll probably start this year in Boise or Peoria after he signs. Could be Daytona if they promote Baez.

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  28. dmick89

    @ dmick89:
    (dying laughing) I just assume Baez is a 3rd baseman. I know he’s currently playing SS so nevermind. Just can’t get over the fact he’s playing SS. (dying laughing)

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  29. Berselius37

    (dying laughing) Bryant thinks he can play in the bugs right now, “but will leave it up to the Cubs”

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