dmick89 has finally been cured! Not of his back problems, but of his boundless optimism for all things Cubs. That article is more-or-less required reading for this article, but I'll very quickly sum it up and say that there isn't a whole lot of hope that the Cubs are going to be actual contenders next year or the year after. I'm not as pessimistic about the Cubs chances, but I'm going to attempt to take a hard look at what a 2014 team might look like should the Cubs actually find themselves as a competitive team. My "projections," as they are, are necessarily optimistic, because that's the only real way that this team could realistically compete; even I know that.
First, let's take a look at the 2014 free agents (mlbtr here):
A pretty slim pickings to be certain. I'll highlight who I think could be interesting:
C:
Brian McCann: I think there's every chance he reaches free agency with the Evan Gattis phenomenon coupled with his probable payday. He's on the wrong side of 30, but if you really needed a catcher (and the jury is out on Castillo's ability to put together 120 solid games: .267/.322/.353 for a .301 wOBA this season), he's really the only guy. Everyone else is a backup. I'm not about to touch him but he's the best a small crop.
1B:
The Cubs don't need a 1B. There actually three intriguing guys to me in Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales, and Mike Morse. Morse can "play" LF (worst fielder in the majors by far) and is antithetical in approach to Epstein, but he'd be instant power. He'll make too much for the Cubs to seriously inquire at LF.
2B:
In a scenario in which the Cubs compete, they either have a) landed Robinson Cano in free agency to some ridiculous deal (hopefully this doesn't happen), b) Darwin Barney finally has a wOBA north of .300 (could happen), or c) Logan Watkins picks up the mantle at 2B and sticks. I think b) or c) have equal chances of happening and would be happy with either outcome. Chase Utley will be a free agency but no thanks. Ben Zobrist also has a chance of making it, but since his option is $7MM and the buyout is already $2.5MM, the Rays will probably pick that up even if the price tag is pretty high.
SS:
I think that Brendan Ryan is actually an intriguing backup MINF prospect. He's a toolsy fielder who can't hit if his life depended on it (career wOBA: .279). However, he can play SS and 2B really well and is the type of 25th man that good teams would love to have. I don't think he fits on the Cubs, especially if Lake and/or Watkins are going to be occupying that role, but it's an interesting thought regardless, as well as a measuring stick to see if the Cubs are actually serious about competing. When they start trying to pick up the neat bench pieces, I'll start feeling confident that THEY are confident. Castro is absolutely, 100% essential to any competitive Cubs team so for the purposes of this article we are assuming he's more 2011 than 2013.
3B:
I think Luis Valbuena has played himself (current slump notwithstanding) into consideration at 3B next year, though he's been putrescent lately. There's no hope in FA at the position, so the position is either filled via Valbuena, Lake, or Vitters next year.
LF:
I'm assuming (hoping) that Soriano is not a Cub next year. There's no help here: all of the FA options are as bad as Sori or worse. Furthermore, there is no real help on the horizon next year. The only outfielders of note at AAA are Brett Jackson and Jae-Hoon Ha, neither of which have the bat to even pretend to play at LF (neither are a sure bet to have a bat for CF!). This is probably where I'm least confident in the Cubs' ability to field a competent player, though there are some creative options: Curtis Granderson can hack it in LF, though you'd rather him play CF to maximize his value, and same with Tacoby Bellsbury.
CF:
I'm hoping that Brett Jackson can at least be a below-average player here. If not him, than Dave Sappelt. If not Sappelt, than the Cubs could either target Granderson or Ellsbury. Franklin Gutierrez is an interesting option, especially defensively; unfortunately, he's so often injured, and those injuries have taken away his major weapon (speed).
RF:
I'm going to blow your mind right now. There's a greater than 50% chance that the best outfielder on the Cubs roster in 2014 right now is Julio Borbon. Schierholtz should be traded, as should DeJesus (though either could stay for competitiveness/injury reasons). The Cubs badly need an outfielder that can provide offense and can plug a hole for a little while. I think that gap is going to filled by Shin-Soo Choo. He's incredible this year, even if he's well off his pace from the beginning of the season. June was his worst month this year and he still had a .364 OBP. I think the Cubs will at least make a VERY strong play at Choo in the offseason, even if he's older than is typical for this FO to pursue. Nelson Cruz and Hunter Pence are the only other two mildly appealing options at RF and I'm not especially interested in either of them.
SP:
There are way too many options to meaningfully parse through; let's just say there are a bunch of 30-somethings that I'll trust the FO to use to address whatever holes the Cubs might have at the bottom of their rotation.
RP:
Same as SP, except there are actually a few very flattering options. Eric O' Flaherty is closer material, though he is having UCL surgery and as such is a TJS guy that this FO loves to take chances on. He's a 2015 guy at the earliest and thus past the scope of this article; I mention him only because I'd like to see this FO take a chance on him. Boone Logan is another great lefty out of the pen that the Cubs could easily look at as well; should the Cubs trade James Russell (and I really, really want them to do so because the return could be slightly better than Marshall's was), Logan could become a definite target for a 3/15 type of deal. Kind of crazy to think about paying 3 and 15 for a reliever, but here we are.
A Short Aside on Trades:
It's also important to realize that any shortfalls this team might have could be solved partially by the return on any trades the Cubs make. The Cubs could be trading Schierholtz, DeJesus, Feldman, Villanueva, Soriano, and Garza this year. The Cubs could easily net a capable outfielder in one of those trades, which really helps out the outlook of the team.
Let's go ahead and just imagine that the only impactful FA signing is Shin-Soo Choo (5/75? 5/80? IDK), and he plays RF. The Cubs of 2013 could look like this:
| wOBA | wRC+ | FIP | ||
| C | Castillo | 0.31 | 95 | |
| 1B | Rizzo | 0.355 | 125 | |
| 2B | Barney | 0.285 | 75 | |
| SS | Castro | 0.32 | 100 | |
| 3B | Valbuena | 0.32 | 100 | |
| LF | Wasteland | 0.3 | 85 | |
| CF | Jackson | 0.3 | 85 | |
| RF | Choo* | 0.36 | 130 | |
| MINF | Watkins | 0.31 | 95 | |
| CINF | Lake | 0.3 | 85 | |
| COF | Hairston | 0.31 | 95 | |
| OF | Sappelt | 0.3 | 85 | |
| SP | Samardzija | 3 | ||
| SP | Wood | 3.6 | ||
| SP | Jackson | 3.5 | ||
| SP | Villanueva | 4 | ||
| SP | Negrin | 4 | ||
| RP | Bowden | | | ||
| RP | Parker | | | ||
| RP | Rodriguez | | | ||
| RP | Coleman | | | ||
| RP | Lim | | | ||
| RP | Neshek* | v | ||
| RP | Logan* | average? |
This team is not hard to envision. It's essentially an average offense with little punch but a slightly stronger bottom of the lineup than average, and a slightly above-average rotation coupled with a dice-roll bullpen. You're only signing one player of real note (Choo), and a pair of relievers that together couldn't cost you more than 7 million per. In addition, I don't doubt for a second this FO's ability to get slightly more creative than Wasteland at LF, and this also disregards any returns on a trade this team could have at the deadline. It projects a return to form for Castro (no sure thing), a modest gain for Rizzo, and fairly achievable numbers for everyone else. Looking at that team, I could see it winning 79-87 games; not exactly knocking down the door for the playoffs, but a respectable launching pad for 2015 for sure.
Do the Cubs have more than a 5% shot of making the playoffs next year? Probably not. However, it's important to show signs of progress, and on that front I really do think the Cubs are getting there. Alcantara could come as soon as the mid-2014, and the rest of the reinforcements could arrive in 2015. Hopefully, this is the last year the Cubs are really bad, and I think that could be the case realistically as well.
Comments
joshQuote Reply
It would be great if the Cubs traded Darwin Barney for Dylan Bundy too, but I’m not holding my breath. Marshall had big value because he could get both lefties and righties out, Russell’s ERA numbers have a lot to do with how he’s been used.
BerseliusQuote Reply
FWIW, there was a report a few weeks ago that the Cubs are going to make a big play for Ellsbury. He’ll make Cubs fans forget about Ryan Theriot, except he’ll actually be good.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVswRCngHoY
RynoQuote Reply
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/blog/2013/jun/28/six-chemicals-food-drink-banned
BerseliusQuote Reply
If they can keep their shit together to the break and maybe even go on a run, there are bound to be a few pieces available. I don’t see them being big buyers next year, but maybe in 2015.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This article seems to be implying that chemical concentration as almost as important as its mere presence. FOR SHAME!
joshQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Dylan Bundy? Eh, too injury-prone. I’d need a little bit more for a hot commodity like James Russell.
In all seriousness, Russell is a worse pitcher (more situational) but comes with 3 more years of cost-control before you even have to think about extending him. That makes him valuable even to teams like the Rays.
MylesQuote Reply
Sounds like the t-shirt vendors outside Wrigley are going to have a new best-seller. I’m thinking this time they go with “Readoff Man.”
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Myles:
What about Ted Bundy? He’s got a lot of charisma.
joshQuote Reply
Actually, if they sign Choo, I fully expect some “Bud Right Breachers” wear.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ josh:
My vote is for Al Bundy.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
The best will be when they bust out all those Japanese headbands from the Fukudome signing, ignoring the fact that Choo is Korean (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
I really don’t like the idea of an Ellsbury signing, he’s too injury-prone and essentially a good player when healthy that will be paid like a very good player.
MylesQuote Reply
Would the Cubs lose their draft pick if they signed one or both of Choo and Ellsbury?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Doesn’t sound like super-chronic injury problems to me (like, say, Ramirez’s quad/hamstring and Soriano’s legs). He had a rib injury from 2010 and sounds like he just kept coming back too soon. 2012 was due to a collision and doesn’t seem to have recurred. It was also a shoulder injury, not a leg injury which is the most important thing with Ellsbury.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I’d be surprised if either of the red teams didn’t give them qualifying offers, so yes. But there’s a good chance that the first rounder will be protected.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Sounding like Marmol ——-> LADoLA
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Of course it would be the Dodgers.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m crossing my fingers that it’s for Yasiel Puig plus cash considerations.
joshQuote Reply
That’s crazy, they’d NEVER trade away cash considerations
MylesQuote Reply
@ josh:
You Never Know
BerseliusQuote Reply
Fun fact: the Astros and Yankees have scored the same number of runs this year
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I still don’t love Ellsbury. Even if you buy 100% the recovery from injury (which I’ll grant), he’s still a player who has only had one meaningful season with an OPS over .770, and this year will be his second of being even league average if he maintains his current pace. Meanwhile, Choo hasn’t had an OPS under .815 save for 2011, when he suffered his own injury (left thumb off of a Jonathan Sanchez HBP). He’s definitely had his minor bang-ups, and even in a perfect world you only play him 150 games. He’s also a strict COF no matter what Cincinnati thinks they’re doing.
Over the last 6 years:
Ellsbury average: 106 G, 9 HR, 35 SB, .294/.349/.434 (105 OPS+)
Choo average: 119 G, 15 HR, 15 SB, .289/.388/.469 (136 OPS+)
Of course, the Cubs could just sign both and be fairly immediate contenders… though I don’t think it’s especially wise and/or feasible. Still, a lineup of
CF Ellsbury
LF Choo
1B Rizzo
RF Schierholtz
SS Castro
3B Valbuena
C Castillo
2B Barney
P Samardzija
seems like it’s an 85 win team on paper (it also probably has $27 million dollars of bad contracts in 2017).
MylesQuote Reply
I’d think that with all of the (potential) trades for this deadline, there will be some returns that can be on next year’s team. It wouldn’t be totally impossible to build a good bullpen that way. Technically, the Cubs have the entire OF including platoons under contract next year, so it could still be Soriano-DeJesus-Schierholtz/Hairston. Not sure how much value that has, and I’m fine with adding Choo. I’m really interested in seeing what the starting rotation looks like next year.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Myles:
If the cubs ever want to be good long term they’ll have to accept the later years of a large contract. I’m fine with it up to a point and I hope the cubs are too.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m fine with it since they can just sell their bad contracts to the Dodgers anyway.
joshQuote Reply
As far as competing next year, getting super lucky on the international market might help. They may need to overspend to do it. Guys like Cespedes and Puig contributed have contributed and quickly. Maybe we catch a simiar rising star, though the rules have changed in some obscure way on that, right?
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m fine with them taking on longer contracts. After this Marmol thing, the only one they have is Soriano and that’s only for next year anyway. Rizzo and Castro’s contracts are very reasonable. I think they’ll have some money to spend this offseason. I also bet that none of Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, or Junior Lake are in the organization in 2014.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ josh:
For players under 23 yea, but this most recent dude is 26 and is gonna get paid big time. I bet the dodgers get him, but wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs do.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Clevenger traded for a slot?
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
good piece, btw, I think the Cubs could get to .500, true-talent wise with a couple of signings. contender? i’m not so sure.
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
“First 15,000 fans will receive a Shin-Soo Choo autographed kimchi pot compliments of BMO Harris Bank.”
DunleavyQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Brett Jackson is a bummer. I’d be stunned if he starts outside of Septembers. I think a Sappelt/Sweeney platoon would outperform him and it wouldn’t be close. I wonder if carrying six platoon OFs would yield good results. It would certainly be dirt cheap and allow you to spend elsewhere. You’d get carved up in late innings by matchups, but having platoon advantages in every game would seem to make up for it.
I feel like Valbuena’s good WAR numbers are a flash in the pan and that you have to upgrade that spot unless you bury him 8th and hope he takes a ton of walks. The defense has been surprisingly good though. The walk rate is nice, but his BABIP has sucked his whole career, which has to start meaning something.
I’m more hopeful on Barney. I know the defense is elite, and he’s showing more pop and he can take a couple walks batting 8th. I’d rather upgrade elsewhere in the lineup.
Someone here should compare the 2013 Cubs to the 2011 Pirates, to see how far you can get in two years without major FA acquisitions. I know a lot of metrics don’t like the Pirates this year. Still, I don’t think the Cubs talent level is that far away from PIT aside from the bullpen and a star in CF (who hasn’t performed that well anyway). Then again, I think this Cubs team should be close to 500, and is just taking a beating from a strong division. I think they’re already 2 credible relievers and a decent Castro performance from already being 500.
JQuote Reply
Is he like 56 years old by now?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Oh, no doubt. I’m not trying to say that the Cubs can’t afford to absorb those sorts of contracts. Just saying they’ll definitely be there if we sign both of those players.
MylesQuote Reply
Brett did an interview/chat with Jason Parks about the IFAs and the Cubs system in general
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/07/01/a-chat-with-baseball-prospectuss-jason-parks-on-cubs-prospects-international-additions-and-so-much-more/
BerseliusQuote Reply
Man! If Clev really is being traded that’ll really put Josh’s interest in the Cubs in the tank. We all know about your man-crush on Clev, Josh.
mobile svbQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply