2014 Cubs Projections: CAIRO

In Commentary And Analysis, Projections by dmick896 Comments

SG has released version 0.1 of his annual project, CAIRO, to the public. Now it's time to post some of the Cubs players here and talk about a few things. First, this is version 0.1 and there are still some errors. Mike Olt is listed as a 1st baseman. He's not, but that will get fixed. Due to this, I have not listed the players' projected offensive WAR. Sure, I could calculate it myself and adjust only a couple things that SG provides, but we're not really at the projecting value stage for next year's team anyway. It's not important right now.

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO avg obp slg wOBA
Anthony Rizzo 640 568 148 38 2 25 65 124 .260 .343 .463 .351
Welington Castillo 371 329 87 18 0 10 33 85 .265 .344 .413 .335
Kris Bryant 236 210 56 14 1 8 16 56 .265 .319 .454 .329
Ryan Sweeney 326 294 81 17 2 6 27 56 .275 .337 .415 .329
Nate Schierholtz 420 381 99 23 3 13 30 76 .259 .317 .439 .326
Brian Bogusevic 406 361 92 17 3 10 39 91 .256 .336 .397 .326
Donnie Murphy 348 313 76 17 2 14 24 89 .243 .311 .443 .326
Javier baez 385 350 85 19 2 15 24 106 .243 .306 .438 .322
Starlin Castro 675 630 174 33 6 12 38 102 .276 .322 .404 .319
Luis Valbuena 458 401 96 21 1 11 51 90 .240 .329 .381 .317
Jorge Soler 238 215 54 12 1 6 19 44 .252 .318 .396 .314
Cody Ransom 294 259 60 15 1 10 29 88 .231 .310 .411 .314
Junior Lake 446 412 108 23 2 10 26 105 .262 .315 .400 .313
Josh Vitters 339 310 79 18 1 9 21 63 .254 .309 .408 .313
Mike Olt 407 360 78 18 1 13 42 125 .217 .302 .381 .302
Brett Jackson 455 406 91 18 4 12 43 157 .224 .306 .376 .302
Logan Watkins 504 452 107 18 5 7 46 113 .236 .317 .345 .297
Julio Borbon 360 328 83 14 3 4 25 58 .252 .311 .349 .293
Arismendy Alcantara 451 414 99 22 3 8 31 104 .240 .297 .366 .290
Christian Villanueva 503 458 105 28 1 12 25 115 .229 .284 .373 .287
Matt Szczur 504 460 111 23 3 5 36 83 .241 .303 .333 .286
Darwin Barney 530 483 118 24 2 7 34 67 .244 .298 .344 .285

SG provides all the stats so I couldn't have miscalculated any of them this time.

1. Holy shit, Kris Bryant!

2. Not surprisingly, CAIRO also think Javier Baez is the best shortstop in the Cubs organization. 

3. Sorry Castro. CAIRO likes you a little better than Bill James and this would be a nice improvement on last year, but you've been replaced as the top shortstop in the organization.

4. Did I mention Kris Bryant? 3rd on the team in wOBA. 

5. Darwin Barney is a great fielder, but is this good enough? 

6. Yes, right now, it probably is.

7. CAIRO is not a fan of Mike Olt. Neither am I.

Name Age IP H HR BB SO K% BB% RA ERA FIP
Kyuji Fujikawa 34 31 27 3 11 31 23.9% 9.2% 3.86 3.69 3.38
Pedro Strop 29 65 56 4 34 68 24.3% 12.8% 3.93 3.75 3.54
Brian Schlitter 29 67 78 6 23 56 19.5% 8.6% 4.92 3.80 3.66
Kyle Hendricks 25 141 154 11 44 97 17.1% 8.5% 4.48 3.82 3.68
Jeff Samardzija 29 166 159 19 63 163 23.2% 9.5% 4.42 4.12 3.76
Edwin Jackson 31 182 194 19 63 149 19.1% 7.8% 4.77 4.32 3.80
Tony Zych 24 62 67 3 33 47 17.8% 13.0% 5.76 4.33 3.89
Carlos Villanueva 31 113 101 14 39 100 21.5% 8.3% 4.11 4.04 3.96
Zac Rosscup 26 53 46 4 39 62 27.7% 17.2% 4.10 3.80 3.96
Marcos Mateo 30 39 40 3 22 35 20.7% 13.4% 4.63 4.13 3.97
Michael Bowden 28 66 57 7 30 60 21.8% 11.1% 4.22 3.99 3.99
C.J. Edwards 23 106 101 4 78 96 22.4% 18.8% 4.49 4.16 3.99
Blake Parker 29 60 52 7 32 64 25.5% 13.0% 4.47 3.96 4.11
Travis Wood 27 181 170 21 64 137 18.3% 9.1% 4.47 4.21 4.15
Hector Rondon 26 61 58 6 27 52 19.8% 9.6% 4.53 4.45 4.17
James Russell 28 62 60 8 20 48 18.7% 6.5% 4.49 4.08 4.17
Justin Grimm 26 148 177 15 65 112 17.7% 10.8% 5.48 4.94 4.18
Jake Arrieta 28 150 145 18 74 129 20.2% 12.2% 5.14 4.79 4.42
Dallas Beeler 25 96 114 10 42 57 13.9% 11.5% 6.01 4.92 4.70
Rafael Dolis 26 44 45 4 28 32 16.8% 15.2% 5.69 4.85 4.74
Chris Rusin 28 172 198 23 67 102 14.1% 10.0% 5.56 5.08 4.82
Neil Ramierz 25 118 119 16 70 109 22.3% 15.5% 5.94 5.59 4.90
Pierce Johnson 23 122 150 13 81 99 19.3% 16.9% 5.66 5.24 4.93
Scott Baker 33 93 99 17 35 74 18.9% 9.4% 5.41 5.16 5.05
Trey McNutt 25 63 75 8 41 42 15.2% 15.7% 6.20 5.74 5.48

1. CAIRO projects Kyle Hendricks to have the lowest FIP among starting pitchers. Raise your hand if you saw that coming.

2. Something goofy is going on there with CJ Edwards. FIP below 4.00 even though he has a walk rate of nearly 20%. Only 4 home runs allowed and if there was a chance of that, I'd be thrilled, but there really isn't. 

3. The more I think about it, there's a strong case to be made that Kyle Hendricks should be in the rotation when the season begins. I'd start him at AAA, but I probably wouldn't hesitate to call him up early on.

4. CAIRO thinks Edwin Jackson's FIP will be fine, which it was last year. On the other hand, it thinks he'll give up nearly 5 runs per 9 inning, which I wouldn't be entirely surprised about.

5. The Cubs have some good to decent starters, but that's about it.

6. There's really a lot to be unimpressed with here, which is why they say the Cubs have shit for pitching. They do say that, right?

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  2. Myles

    Samardzija, Wood, Jackson. Those are the ONLY 3 I’d feel confident have a spot in the rotation next season. The other 2 are totally up for grabs (and the list is Baker, Hendricks, Negrin, Rusin, Raley, Grimm, Arrieta, Villanueva, Cabrera, and Bowden). This is, of course, why I feel it’s imperative to sign at least 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers this offseason.

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  4. Author
    dmick89

    @ Myles:
    I would guess that’s partly because his walk rate was just awful prior to this season. These are also based on MLE so unless you mash in the minors, you’re usually not projected to be much of a hitter at the MLB level, especially for those below AAA.

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  5. Suburban kid

    Myles wrote:

    Also man does it hate on Alcantara.

    “Animals don’t hate, and we’re supposed to be better than them.”
    ― Elvis Presley

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