2014 IFA: Yankees, Cubs, and #FreeDSLCubs2

In Commentary And Analysis by GW24 Comments

2014 International Free Agency

I’m still catching up on the latest developments in the international free agent market, and it turns out there’s a few to cover, including a big one: The Yankees have decided to go all out on this year’s class. Kylie McDaniel had the story back on December 30th, and ESPN New York belatedly followed.  The Yankees are making the same noises as we heard from the Cubs last July: this is a banner class and we want in, etc…

A source with direct knowledge of the Yankees plans says they aim to spend $12-15 million in bonuses on international amateurs this year, which would trigger penalties of about $10-12 million per to the 2-year old rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that limit international spending.

For reference, a total of $97 million was spent last year by all teams combined. There’s a good chance that number stays constant or even decreases this year due to increased penalties, so $12-15 million will likely account for a huge chunk of overall spending.

McDaniel further reports that the Yanks have already come to an agreement with no less than six prospects already, including a $3 million dollar agreement with Dominican shortstop Dermis Garcia*. This isn’t just a possibility; it’s already in motion. Though teams can’t officially sign prospects until July 2nd, these agreements are being made right now, as is typical in this market.

*For reference, man-child Eloy Jimenez received the largest bonus last year at $2.8 million.

Cub Implications

So, where does the impending Yankees binge leave the Cubs? 

Given the amount the Cubs have spent thus far in the 2013-2014 period, the team will not be allowed to sign any one player for more than $250,000 in 2014-2015. They will, however, have a large bonus pool again (probably a bit over $4 million), meaning that they can either distribute that money on a swarm of lower-level prospects or trade it to a team in need of additional space. Quoth Theo, last August:

We can take a different strategy (in 2014-2015), where we really need to replenish some of our organizational pitching depth and can stretch some of the money around with lower-level investments. That might match up better with the talent available, at least what it looks like early, in next year’s class.

In a vacuum, there will be more of a market for trades this year, as penalties have been increased. While spending pools haven’t yet been announced for the 2014-2015 period, the Yanks will likely be "allowed" on the order of $2.5 million. In order to stay under their cap, they would need to acquire the equivalent of all of the Marlins’ and the Astros’ spending slots. They obviously don’t have the farm system to make that happen, which is why they are planning to spend this freely in the first place. And as a rule, trading for extra space when you know you will be in the max penalty makes no sense. So they are out as a trade partner.

What about the rest of the league? In theory, the competition will increase demand for the Cubs’ excess space. And maybe it will, but I’m not completely convinced. At least, it’s likely the Yankees will sign the players that they want, and leave the rest for everyone else. When you’re willing to spend $35 million more on Mashahiro Tanaka than anyone else, what’s an extra million on a particular prospect to supplement your barren farm system? What remains to be seen is what other teams think of the remaining talent.

Elsewhere in IFA

One team to watch is the Brewers. McDaniel is reporting that they have agreed with Dominican third baseman Gilbert Lara to the tune of $3.2 million dollars, meaning they will probably need some extra space. Keep an eye on McDaniel’s twitter feed for other high-dollar agreements. The Cubs aren't going to have any high profile signings, but the teams that do will be potential trade partners.

 

Affiliate Watch

Last year, the Cubs, having just completed a massive, state of the art facility in the Dominican, decided to drop their second Dominican Summer League affiliate. I thought that was a curious decision at the time (though it was balanced by the addition of a Venezuelan Summer League affiliate). Uncertainty around talent levels gets much higher the further down one goes into the minor league ranks. Sixteen and seventeen year-olds are really far removed from where they will end up, so it makes sense to have multiple affiliates at the lowest levels. The occasional Miguel Cabrera will be highly regarded from birth to death, but for every one of those guys, there are a dozen who come out of nowhere. 

Having great scouting and development people is nice, but why not play the odds, as well? Sign a dozen 16-17 year-olds who may have slipped through the cracks at $10,000 a piece, and let them play. Given the league-wide restrictions that have been put into place on draft and international spending, it seems like a no-brainer to me. And if they really do end up spreading their money around widely in the coming period, that’s all the more reason to bring back the second unit. Along with the Yankees, the Pirates, Astros, Mets, and Rays all now have nine total affiliates while the rest of the league is at 7 or 8. It's a genuine opportunity for a small edge. 

#FreeDSLCubs2 

#FreeAZLCubs2 

Though in the latter case, someone would have to clone Arizona Phil. 

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Comments

  1. cubsin

    First, I don’t understand how saving $900,000 in luxury tax by acquiring additional cap space made “no sense” for the Cubs last year. Second, at least last year there was a limit (I believe 50% of each team’s original cap) that could be added to the original cap space so that a team could spend more to sign IFA’s without incurring penalties. While technically the Yankees could trade for a dozen teams’ cap space, they’d only be able to use a small portion of it to increase their cap for avoiding penalties (so they wouldn’t).

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  2. Like You Care

    BVS, my dad drank Hamms wrote:

    Hey Ryno, what’s your prediction about how Michael Sam coming out will change his place in the draft (aside from Miami not drafting him)?

    The fact that he’s admittedly gay won’t have much of an impact on his draft stock, imo, but I bet there are a few GMs who will drop him because of the distraction it could create (more with the media than teammates).

    The fact that he told his Missouri teammates last year and nothing leaked out before his announcement should say all anyone needs to know about how teammates accept a gay player…or at least what type of person Sam is.

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  3. Like You Care

    I say that, but then I remember how S Kerry Rhodes is still unemployed after rumors of his sexuality surfaced. He was PFF’s fourth best S in 2012.

    I only watched two CHI games last season, but they have no excuse to not sign Rhodes.

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  7. Like You Care

    @ Myles:

    Sam was and is an early Day 3 pick, imo. He’s a high-effort guy with limited athleticism and there are about 10 DEs I’d pick before him.

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  9. Edwin

    Like You Care wrote:

    @ Myles:

    He’s a high-effort guy with limited athleticism

    Only thing keeping him from being a 2nd round pick by the Bears is if he also had surgery on a knee or shoulder recently.

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  13. Author
    GW

    cubsin wrote:

    First, I don’t understand how saving $900,000 in luxury tax by acquiring additional cap space made “no sense” for the Cubs last year.

    I’ve been been pretty boorish on this topic in the past, so there’s plenty there to help you understand my position. Executive summary: I think it was Plan B rather than Plan A.

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  15. Author
    GW

    @ Like You Care:

    do you really think it will be that big a distraction? I expect that the drafting team will get a ton of coverage for a few weeks, but then die off. I mean, FOX and CBS will avoid the issue like the plague on Sundays, right?

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  18. Like You Care

    @ GW:

    I don’t think it will, but I’m sure there are a few teams who will drop him for it.

    Think of it this way: In the draft (much like sports in general), there’s usually a very small difference between players. I guarantee there are teams that think there will be enough drama (which doesn’t have to be a lot) surrounding Sam to drop him on their boards.

    The difference between this situation and Te’o is that Te’o was more of a meme-like story that became boring. After the story came out, no one really cared. It seems to me that a lot of media will want to find out what life in the NFL is like for a gay man.

    Again, Sam’s ranking for me stays the same. I think it would be naive, though, to assume that everyone would feel the same.

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  22. Like You Care

    @ GW:

    Please. The only good thing that has ever come out of Lubbock is Buddy Holly.

    Athlete/fan interaction is a topic that you guys have broached before, and this one was interesting to me because it involved a college kid.

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  23. Author
    GW

    Like You Care wrote:

    this one was interesting to me because it involved a college kid.

    indeed. it surprised me because the college basketball games that i’ve been to involve way more trash talking than pro games, since so many students are near the court. yet i’ve only seen one or two players really get rattled.

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