In 2015 the Cubs payroll was a little over $133 million. We're not entirely sure what the 2016 payroll will be, but Theo did say we should expect it to increase some. That could mean anything, but we'll have plenty of time to break that down. I figured since I wasn't entirely sure where the Cubs were in terms of resources that I'd get a clue so I knew what I was talking about moving forward. I also figured it's something I've tracked nearly every year since 2005 so I'd publish it here. Maybe I'm the only one who finds it useful, but I can more quickly find things here on OV than I can elsewhere. Hopefully some of you will find it useful too.
Myles has already put together some potential offseason plans.
| Player | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Jon Lester | 20.000 | 25.000 | 25.000 | 25.000 | 25.000 |
| Miguel Montero | 14.000 | 14.000 | |||
| Edwin Jackson | 13.000 | ||||
| Jason Hammel | 9.000 | *2.0 | |||
| Starlin Castro | 7.857 | 9.857 | 10.857 | 11.857 | **1.0 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 5.286 | 7.286 | 7.286 | 11.286 | ***2.0 |
| Jorge Soler | 3.667 | 3.667 | 4.667 | 4.667 | 4.667 |
| David Ross | 2.500 | ||||
| Gerardo Concepcion | 1.200 | ||||
| Ryan Sweeney | 0.500 | ||||
| Trevor Cahill | 0.300 | ||||
| Clayton Richard # | 1.100 | Free Agent (FA) | |||
| Chris Coghlan # | 3.900 | FA | |||
| Jonathan Herrera # | 1.100 | FA | |||
| Travis Wood # | 6.400 | FA | |||
| Pedro Strop # | 4.700 | Arb4 | FA | ||
| Jake Arrieta # | 10.600 | Arb3 | FA | ||
| Jacob Turner # | 1.000 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | |
| Hector Rondon # | 3.600 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA | |
| Justin Grimm # | 1.000 | Arb2 | Arb3 | FA |
Notes
- The Cubs hold a $12 million club option on Jason Hammel for 2017 or a $2 million buyout.
- The Cubs hold a $16 million club option on Starlin Castro in 2020 or a $1 million buyout.
- The Cubs hold a $14.5 million clut option on Anthony Rizzo in 2020 and 2021 with a $2 million buyout.
- Trevor Cahill has a $0.3 million buyout (or an absurd $13 million club option, which isn't happening).
- # arbitration eligible players with projected salaries by Matt Swartz.
- Jon Lester is paid $22.5 million in each of 2018 and 2019, but also gets $2.5 million each year as part of his signing bonus. 2021 he's paid $15 million, but he also gets $10 million in signing bonus.
The total of those players is $110.71 million. Add in the auto-renewal players making roughly league minimum, as well as the 40-man roster guys not on the active roster (probably $7-12 million total) and you're already at $120 million.
Re-signing Dexter Fowler definitely becomes more difficult if the Cubs are looking to add a top-tier talent (pitcher or position player) through free agency. That is, unless the payroll is significantly higher than it was in 2015.
So let's say the Cubs increase the payroll to $140 million, which would only be a small increase considering they went to the playoffs. They'd have roughly $15 million to spend. A trade or two could clear up some more space. A $150 million payroll would give the Cubs a lot more flexibility and the option to add both an elite starting pitcher and Dexter Fowler if they wanted.
Comments
I think this is the year Gerardo Concepcion really turns it around.
mylesQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
myles,
His strikeout rate has at least gone from complete shit to pretty good, but his walk rate remains complete shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
How soon do you think Theo will try to buy out Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, etc. pre-arb, arb, and early FA years?
Bryant is a special case, because I could see him waiting it out and becoming a FA when he’s 29. I could see Schwarber signing an 8 year $40m deal.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
The year of Dillon Maples will soon be upon us all.
SamQuote Reply
What’s with all the new shit?
Who’s Gerardo Concepcion again?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Sam,
This probably would have been better as a Trey McNutt reference, actually.
SamQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I think Soler can opt into Arbitration when he’s eligible (2018 I believe is his first opportunity), otherwise he’s locked into the contract he signed as Int’l FA until 2021.
SamQuote Reply
Don’t post for years, come back to say hi, and kill the comments section. Good work, Sam.
SamQuote Reply
Immediately. I’d bet you a million dollars that Jed has at least communicated with all of Schwarber/Russell/Bryant’s agents already, though whether they want to sign one or not remains to be seen.
Bryant probably will go to FA unless he gets a big overpay. I literally cannot find who Kyle Schwarber’s agent is, but he signed an under-slot deal so it probably isn’t Boras (dying laughing). The problem is that you usually sign these types of deals with players who didn’t get 1st round money. Schwarber received $3.125 million and Russell received $2.625 million. Soler isn’t signing a deal because he already has a similar one.
In the end, I think the Cubs will eventually get one done for Schwarber and Russell that extend team control for one more year, but it won’t be all that team-friendly. It will just provide cost certainty for both sides.
mylesQuote Reply
Looking at next year’s FA crop, which is almost entirely composed of actual shit, seems this should be the year to stretch payroll a bit further than usual.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I would have to imagine Theo can expand the payroll if he feels he can get both a quality SP and either Fowler or Fowler’s replacement. If he’s got some deals working, I can’t see the Ricketts telling him no, it’s either one or the other. Heyward will most likely get a huge deal so I don’t see the Cubs signing him but what impact will that have on Fowler’s price?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I don’t think it will have all that much impact. Hell, he might even sign before Heyward does.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Yeah, Soler makes $3 million in each of 2016 and 2017 and has an outside shot of being a super 2 (most likely not). Then he earns $4 million in each of 2018 and 2019, but will probably opt out after 2018 and become arbitration eligible if he’s not a super 2.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edit: he’ll be arbitration eligible after 2017 and will opt out of his contract at that point (he’ll still be under Cubs control). So $3 million in 2016 and 2017 then arbitration.
dmick89Quote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
And they should be able to get away with it because Hammel and Jackson come off the books after 2016. I’d think stretching it in 2016 would be OK all things considered (Cubs went to the NLCS, they should be a contender in 2017 and money coming off the books after 2016).
dmick89Quote Reply
Good to see you back, too. Been a long time. Nice to see all you guys who used to post around since we moved away from Bloguin. Thanks.
dmick89Quote Reply
I really hope Theo can convince Ricketts to let him make a legit run at Heyward. More and more I think this is the way to go. Price would be pretty good to great for 2-3 years, but then you’re paying for significantly diminishing returns the rest of the way, same with Lester. With Heyward, yeah, you have to pay him a shit-ton, but it’s likely for the best years of his career and even at a sky-high price there’s a decent chance he outperforms it (he was worth almost 50MM this year). There’s even still some hope that his bat reaches another level and depending on the length of the deal, the defense wouldn’t start to regress until the latter stages. Something like that doesn’t come around in FA every day.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’d love to have Heyward, but I think you’ve got to trade Soler and sign someone like Austin Jackson for CF. I’m fine with that. I’m just not sure you want Heyward in CF.
I agree. A player like Heyward doesn’t come around in free agency very often. He ought to be the primary target. If they could get him and then Ross for the rotation, I’d be happy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, if Heyward signs an 8-year deal, he’d still be 34 on the last year of that deal. That’s pretty remarkable. I just think he’s getting close to $200 million from someone. That’s a lot of money.
mylesQuote Reply
I’ve thought about that part of it too. The sample is tiny, but Heyward appears to acquit himself reasonably well statistically speaking in CF, at minimum I think he’d be a decent upgrade over Fowler. I wonder if you can’t do something like, say, sign Heyward and then someone like Rajai Davis, who would be cheap and appears to play a solid CF as well. Keep Soler, who’s only probably good for 110-120 games per year at best anyway. Play Heyward part-time in CF, part-time in RF. Schwarber in LF a lot of days, but also catching 30-40 games and likely sitting altogether against LHP. Soler switching to LF against LHP, otherwise in RF or resting. Davis in CF against LHP, Heyward shifts to RF those days (and the days Soler gets a breather).
Maddon would be thrilled, because he’d get to move everybody around all the time and work in reps for everybody at multiple OF positions. Would buy the Cubs time to get more clarity on what they have in Soler and Schwarber long-term, and whether or not Almora is ever going to come through. In a year, revisit this shit again, maybe deal Soler at that point, move Heyward back to his more natural position full-time. Or, if it’s working, keep it going another year.
Or maybe the NL will finally get its head out of its ass and bring in the DH at that point and this is permanently solved.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
He might, but this is right in the Cubs wheelhouse. This is their dream player. If Ricketts has the money, it’s hard for me to believe the Cubs aren’t going to be seriously involved in negotiations for him. As good as Price is, Theo has said many times how they’re not going to invest huge chunks of money in players past their prime and that’s what Price is. That’s what Johnny Cueto is (he won’t cost as much though). Hayward is the exact type of player the front office has said they will be going after.
I’ll be disappointed if they don’t. I won’t be upset if they fail to sign him. That’s really out of their control to some extent, but if they aren’t involved up to a certain point, that would disappointing. What that dollar value is, I don’t know.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s also important to note that Wrigley is one of the easiest CFs to play defensively. I’d be confident in Heyward’s ability to be average there for a few years.
I definitely think the Cubs will be “in” on Heyward, whatever that means. I don’t think they’ll sign him; not when something like a dozen teams have a need for him and half of those have just as big of checkbooks as the Cubs do.
mylesQuote Reply
True. But then, I said the same thing last year about Jon Lester.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Yeah, Lester really surprised me last year.
I don’t think they end up signing him either, but what a kick in the balls that would be to the cardinals if they did.
dmick89Quote Reply
Also, I wonder if some teams with big checkbooks won’t be willing to go quite as high, because some will doubt the defensive metrics (which is where the bulk of the elite portion of his value comes from), and will balk at the idea of paying a corner OF 150+MM when he’s not a traditional masher at that position.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, he’s going to get low balled by some who can’t appreciate his value added despite not being the typical 3/4 hitter.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
That’s the beauty of the Cubs, they don’t really need him to be traditional 3/4 hitter. He could lead off or hit 2nd and be extremely valuable from those spots in the lineup.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
Depending on who else they added, my bet would be on him leading off.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dudes, stop getting me excited about Jason Heyward playing for the Cubs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
I’m watching you.
MuckerQuote Reply
If nothing else, the Cubs should push the price of Heyward up above what makes the Cardinals choke and they’ll lose him for the compensation pick no matter where he signs.
The nightmare scenario is him signing a team-friendly extension to stay with the BFIB. I don’t think he will since it’s not like he was universally loved there. He still had to wait in line behind Yadi, Wainwright, and the corpse of Oscar Taveras for the key to the Cardinals fans hearts. Shit, more of those people worshipped that slack-jawed shit heel, John Lackey.
aisle424Quote Reply
Yeah, I’d be pretty shocked if that happened. He seemed very much like a hired gun all year long.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Yeah, I think the Cardinals were waiting for this draft pick from the moment they traded for him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Guys—with all this action, it’s getting hard to read every word. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
This. Heyward was just about the only guy who showed up in the NDLS for the Cards.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Would it be, though? I mean, I’m sure they’d love to have him back but it’s not like their OF situation is a wasteland or anything.
berseliusQuote Reply
I don’t know if they are sold on Matt Adams at first, so they have a hole there. Plus Matt Holliday isn’t getting any more durable. So Piscotty and Grichuk are a lock to fill 2 of the 4 OF/1B spots, then what? So they have some work to do.
Plus their rotation is going to need a tweak or two as well depending on the statuses of Lynn, Martinez, and Lackey.
aisle424Quote Reply
berselius,
I think any time you take a 5-win player directly from a rival, it’s going to hurt. If the cardinals end up acquiring those wins back for a fraction of the price, that’s another story. It’s also just like the cardinals to do just that. They’ll trade Piscotty and Holliday for Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout in a 3 team trade. Plus they’ll get a couple players to be named later.
dmick89Quote Reply
Looks like David Price doesn’t have TWTW.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Still true because if TOR pulls this off, Price won’t be the one getting the W.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Its the return of taco shits posting.
UrkQuote Reply
Fucking Blue Jays
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Sounds painful.
berseliusQuote Reply
What Ned Yost-y thug did Nee Yost do earlier? I wax asleep #thuglife.
berseliusQuote Reply
I know when I tune in to baseball games, I’m really interested in taking umpires.
berseliusQuote Reply
Getting swept is pretty much zero fun, but I’ll take it any day over what Blue Jays fans just had to endure.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
*tries to figure out how to mute royals on twitter*
berseliusQuote Reply
Kyle Schwarber’s agent is Kent Mercker of all people.
I can’t think of a funny 2004 Steve Stone joke to tie in with this comment.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
We took inspiration from the emoji.
berseliusQuote Reply
Having learned from experience, Stone made sure to bar the door to the announcers’ booth in case he had occasion to criticize Schwarber or the Cubs
PerkinsQuote Reply
When was the last time the Cubs had a comp pick? They haven’t had very many; that’s one are where I was hoping for more throughout the rebuild.
GWQuote Reply
The national writers need to check with their urologist, they’ve been wanking off to base running for the last 10 hours now.
berseliusQuote Reply
I think it was 2012 when they took Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate the Royals. 5 years ago I couldn’t find a single person here in Topeka to talk baseball with. Now everyone wants to talk baseball and they have the dumbest fucking things to say. I just have to nod and smile.
I used to like the Royals. Even a few years ago I did, but their fans annoy the hell out of me.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m just glad for the break after the bukkake session over the inherent superiority of “young starting pitching.”
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Pitching, defense, small ball. Those are the narratives we’ll hear over and over until this season ends.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
And if the Cubs had made it, it would have been all about having a home run hitting lineup that grinds out ABs and makes pitchers work too hard, a loose clubhouse full of guys that “play dumb,” and a manager that bats the pitcher 8th.
Oh, and the unstoppable predictive power of Back to the Future II.
Just can’t stop the stupid.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Theo had a good take in an interview this week about how whichever team wins the World Series, that style will be “the right way to build a champion” according to the media, who will ignore that there are many ways to get there.
Every time Theo talks to the media, it’s really comforting to see how much smarter he is than they are.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Not that I’d expect it to happen, but what would be a fair offer for Chris Sale? I’d have to think it would start at Schwarber, Baez, and Edwards plus.
PerkinsQuote Reply
At least that narrative would have crowded out all the goat/Bartman shit.
berseliusQuote Reply
I thought TBS did a pretty good job with not talking about Bartman like FOX has. If the Cubs made the WS, that would have been mentioned 3 times per inning by Joe Fuck Yourself.
dmick89Quote Reply
It would start at too much. If the Cubs are going to give away a ton of young talent, I’d rather it be for Giancarlo Stanton.
dmick89Quote Reply
Never mind. I forgot that Stanton signed a huge contract extension.
dmick89Quote Reply
Given recent Marlins history, they’ll probably try to move him for pennies on the dollar this offseason.
berseliusQuote Reply
Whether you love/hate the Royals, this was a spectacular play:
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/155433184/statcast-cains-sprint-the-difference-for-kc
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I also wanted to leave this nice comment here.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’d almost certainly be too much, though it seems like the Cubs are close to having more talented young players than spots to play them.
I’m assuming it’s a useless thought exercise anyway, since KW will want to hang onto Sale and Abreu through their prime years, even though it’s unlikely he and Hahn put enough talent around them to make it worthwhile.
PerkinsQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/jason-heyward-is-going-to-get-paid-probably/
GWQuote Reply