Despite watching only a batter here and there, I wanted to watch this series. For one thing, I figured the Cubs would finally put an end to all of this Pirates as a contending team stuff to rest. They did. Second, it had been awhile since I really sat down and watched Cubs baseball and figured I had enough distance at this point so that I could just enjoy the game for what it is: a game. That I did. Finally, for some reason I really thought the Cubs were going to play good baseball this series. Part of that was because I fully expected them to put an end to the Pirates hopes of contending and part of it was just one of those feelings that you get. They played good baseball.
Zambrano had a solid start, Wells easily had the best start of his season, Garza was dominating, the Cubs scored some runs, ran the bases well for the most part, didn’t fuck up too much defensively and just seemed the superior team. It’s been awhile since we can say that about the Cubs. It’s probably going to be awhile before we can say it again unless they invest large sums of money in the club this offsesaon.
Sweeping a team in 4 games is very tough to do. If we say the two clubs were evenly matched, ignore home field advantage, we basically have a coin flip for each game. The odds of one team sweeping the series would be 6.25%. There’s a reason the Cubs haven’t swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh over 4 games since 1959. It’s not easy to do. That, and there probably haven’t been that many 4-game series in Pittsburgh between these two teams.
If we apply a 5% home field advantage, we get the Pirates with a 55% chance of winning each game. We’re still considering the teams equal and ignoring starting pitchers. It’s good enough for our purposes. Now we’re down to 4.1%.
If somebody had just started watching baseball this series they’d probably think the Cubs were a pretty good team. They’d think much less of the Pirates, but that’s baseball. In small samples just about anything can happen. But I don’t care about the small samples. I made a point to watch Cubs baseball for the first time in some time and I quite enjoyed it.
To be honest, it reminded me of watching Cubs baesball much of my life. You know, seasons in which they’re not in contention. Yeah, those. It’s not as exciting as playoff bound baseball, but it’s baseball and it’s enjoyable just the same. I’m sure Tim will have a picture of the day coming up, but I wanted to at least say that I enjoyed 2011 Cubs baseball at one point. It was hard to do and it took a long time, but this series was a lot of fun.
Comments
I think the Cubs players actually had fun today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This reminds me in some ways of the Cubs/Padres series last year. The Padre’s like the Pirates, were way over their heads in terms of standings, and the Cubs put them out of their misery.
ACTQuote Reply
I had fun today and let’s be honest, RC, that’s all that matters. From now on, ask yourself one question: did mb21 have fun?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I had fun today and let’s be honest, RC, that’s all that matters. From now on, ask yourself one question: did mb21 have fun?[/quote]
I’m not sure I want to be in the same room when that happens.
/scared
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I just want to point out that I totally called sweep earlier in the week.
/broke-clocked.
binkyQuote Reply
I was able to watch two of the games and listen to most of the third on the radio. Good games. Lots of fun. I’m sorry I missed today with the big comeback.
binkyQuote Reply
Random fact: Soto has thrown out 32% of runners this year, tied for 4th best in the MLB.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I’ve been thinking the same thing, MB. This is the first series in weeks that I’ve watched multiple games. I’m not going to pretend that the Cubs are going to contend (see the comments about how the Cubs are still not in a great position even if they win their next 20 games), but these games reminded me that I like just hanging out and watching baseball sometimes.
Also, I had no idea how much of a mirage the Pirates record was until I wrote the preview for this series. Holy shit, they might be as bad as the Cubs. I’m glad the Cubs season didn’t work out the same way because they didn’t try to trade for players with the illusion that they’re contending.
BerseliusQuote Reply
It’s easy to forget how enjoyable it is to watch the Cubs win when it never happensl
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’ve been thinking the same thing, MB. This is the first series in weeks that I’ve watched multiple games. I’m not going to pretend that the Cubs are going to contend (see the comments about how the Cubs are still not in a great position even if they win their next 20 games), but these games reminded me that I like just hanging out and watching baseball sometimes.
Also, I had no idea how much of a mirage the Pirates record was until I wrote the preview for this series. Holy shit, they might be as bad as the Cubs. I’m glad the Cubs season didn’t work out the same way because they didn’t try to trade for players with the illusion that they’re contending.[/quote]Yeah, their GM seemed pretty realistic about their chances.
binkyQuote Reply
On the other hand, that wild Cards-Brewers game yesterday reminded me of how much I missed watching contending baseball. (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m thinking the 5th starter should be 3 innings of Lopez, 3 innings of Ramon Ortiz and that’s it.
binkyQuote Reply
Just watching some clips. That McDonald guy is really tall.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m thinking the 5th starter should be 3 innings of Lopez, 3 innings of Ramon Ortiz and that’s it.[/quote]It’s a coin flip that either of them would last that long. (dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m thinking the 5th starter should be 3 innings of Lopez, 3 innings of Ramon Ortiz and that’s it.[/quote]
I love that Sullivan is bitching that Lopez is pitching while Coleman is pitching in AAA (dying laughing). Not a ton of difference there at this point.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]It’s a coin flip that either of them would last that long. (dying laughing)[/quote]I know, but 4 innings is pushing it too far, I think.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Yeah, their GM seemed pretty realistic about their chances.[/quote]
It was nice that the Pirates “bought” Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick for next to nothing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Speaking of rental players, Kosuke had a pretty decent April night against the Red Sox.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I love that Sullivan is bitching that Lopez is pitching while Coleman is pitching in AAA (dying laughing). Not a ton of difference there at this point.[/quote]Coleman is young. Also, he might help himself a bit with the bat and glove. That’s about it, though.
ACTQuote Reply
Thome —> 598 HR
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It was nice that the Pirates “bought” Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick for next to nothing.[/quote]Yeah, it was a kind gesture to the fans who wanted the team to look like it was trying to make something happen.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
Also, I had no idea how much of a mirage the Pirates record was until I wrote the preview for this series. Holy shit, they might be as bad as the Cubs. I’m glad the Cubs season didn’t work out the same way because they didn’t try to trade for players with the illusion that they’re contending.[/quote]Baseball Prospectus projects the Pirates as being slightly worse than the Cubs.
ACTQuote Reply
Link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
The Pirates are a “true” .453 team, while the Cubs are .465. Of course, prediction models are imprecise, so this is well within experimental error, I assume. I think it’s safe to say that they’re about the e same talent level: well-below-average, but not horrible, teams.
ACTQuote Reply
Hi, I’m Troy McLure. You’re reading this in my voice, aren’t you?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Hi, I’m Troy McLure. You’re reading this in my voice, aren’t you?[/quote](dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
…huh?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]…huh?[/quote]See the on-duty manager.
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
[/quote]
Nice marmot.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Nice marmot.[/quote]Also, let’s not forget – let’s *not* forget, Dude – that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city – that aint legal either.
WaLiQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Also, let’s not forget – let’s *not* forget, Dude – that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city – that aint legal either.[/quote]
Who gives a shit about the fucking marmot?!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]See the on-duty manager.[/quote]
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Somebody has to be the uncoolest person. Someone should inform Al.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/8/3/2342981/who-is-the-best-player-you-could-imagine-the-cubs-getting-via-trade#73839237
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint].[/quote]
Is that Al or Dr. Aneus Taint speaking?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/8/3/2342981/who-is-the-best-player-you-could-imagine-the-cubs-getting-via-trade#73839237[/quote]That comment thread is fap worthy. Why would anyone post on that site?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint].[/quote]I don’t like your jerk-off name. I don’t like your jerk-off face. I don’t like your jerk-off behavior, and I don’t like you, jerk-off. Do I make myself clear?
WaLiQuote Reply
Hahaha idiot.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Is that Al or Dr. Aneus Taint speaking?[/quote]
That’s all Alvin.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]I don’t like your jerk-off name. I don’t like your jerk-off face. I don’t like your jerk-off behavior, and I don’t like you, jerk-off. Do I make myself clear?[/quote]
I’m sorry, I wasn’t reading.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]That comment thread is fap worthy. Why would anyone post on that site?[/quote]
To be cool.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/8/3/2342981/who-is-the-best-player-you-could-imagine-the-cubs-getting-via-trade#73839237[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]To be cool.[/quote]You’re not cool.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Also, let’s not forget – let’s *not* forget, Dude – that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city – that aint legal either.[/quote]What are you, a fucking park ranger now?
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
The Cubs have only 5 less wins than the White Sox.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]You’re not cool.[/quote]
Maybe, but you’re the uncoolest.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
My favorite part is Alvin saying, “This isn’t junior high. And you’re not cool.”
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]My favorite part is Alvin saying, “This isn’t junior high. And you’re not cool.”[/quote]It’s lines like this that occasionally make me think Al is a bit. If only that were the case…
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]It’s lines like this that occasionally make me think Al is a bit. If only that were the case…[/quote]As Mr. Cat says, You crazy Al.
WaLiQuote Reply
I like how the Pirates immediately went into the toilet right after Hendry used them as an example of how quickly a team can turn it around and so the Cubs can contend next year. Delusional.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]My favorite part is Alvin saying, “This isn’t junior high. And you can’t beat me up and steal my Rick Monday lunch box and Superman comics anymore.“[/quote].
GBTSQuote Reply
Spencer McDonald-Sopoaga-J. Smith Rogers
A. Smith-Bowman-Willis-Haralson
Whitner R. Smith
Man. All those Smiths make this the Matrix Reloaded defense.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I like how the Pirates immediately went into the toilet right after Hendry used them as an example of how quickly a team can turn it around and so the Cubs can contend next year. Delusional.[/quote]Brief hot streak in the middle of the season = World Series. It’s perfectly logical.
binkyQuote Reply
b, your expertise is needed:
http://www.cracked.com/article_19360_7-questions-you-didnt-know-could-be-answered-with-math.html
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Brief hot streak in the middle of the season = World Series. It’s perfectly logical.[/quote]
You forgot about the shitty division. The problem is that its the Cubs that beat them. One or two more wins in a row and we will start hearing from Tommy about how this is more like the team they broke camp with because they are finally healthy.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]You forgot about the shitty division. The problem is that its the Cubs that beat them. One or two more wins in a row and we will start hearing from Tommy about how this is more like the team they broke camp with because they are finally healthy.[/quote]I know, I’m worried about that too. And the Red have been up and down, so that series could go either way. Really, it won’t matter. Once you (read: the Cubs) have committed to a narrative as completely as they have, no one’s going to change your mind.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]b, your expertise is needed:
http://www.cracked.com/article_19360_7-questions-you-didnt-know-could-be-answered-with-math.html%5B/quote%5D
2 or 288.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
^^^ reminds me of the Cubs
MishQuote Reply
49ers 49ers49ers
dylanjQuote Reply
We talkin’ ’bout practice.
Allen IversonQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]49ers 49ers49ers[/quote]
sucksucksuck
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
i liked their moves yesterday
dylanjQuote Reply
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Can-the-49ers-get-value-for-Taylor-Mays.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Man, tell that fucker to add 20 pounds and move him to OLB.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Lots of days off for this home day game following a road night game.
SS Castro
CF Campana
3B Ramirez
1B Pena
2B DeWitt
LF Soriano
RF Colvin
C Hill
P Dempster
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i liked their moves yesterday[/quote]
Adding a starting WR, starting C and starting SS for about $10 million in a couple of days is pretty good.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Q looks willing to let the winning streak die at 5.
ACTQuote Reply
For some reason this is what cracked me up the most. We need to start an Al Yellon reality show competition called “The Factor” (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]b, your expertise is needed:
http://www.cracked.com/article_19360_7-questions-you-didnt-know-could-be-answered-with-math.html%5B/quote%5D
That’s not math, just shittily justified modeling. Except maybe the bike one.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]For some reason this is what cracked me up the most. We need to start an Al Yellon reality show competition called “The Factor” (dying laughing)[/quote]
Each week he would “ban” one contestant by saying, “You are the uncoolest.”
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Not a game. Practice.
Allen IversonQuote Reply
MaioccoCSN Matt Maiocco
49ers’ deal for WR Braylon Edwards is $1M base w/no guaranteed money. He only gets full $3.5M if he catches 90 passes and makes Pro Bowl.
dylanjQuote Reply
thats a crazy good deal for SF
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Q looks willing to let the winning streak die at 5.[/quote]He’s trying to win ballgames here. He’s not going to let petty streaks get in the way of that.
binkyQuote Reply
49ers committed $16 mil in 2011 to Akers, Rogers, Goodwin, Whitner, Edwards, Williams. Raiders committed $16 mil in 2011 to Michael Huff.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]thats a crazy good deal for SF[/quote]
Yeah, that’s nuts. I’m surprised Edwards couldn’t get more from some other team.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]49ers committed $16 mil in 2011 to Akers, Rogers, Goodwin, Whitner, Edwards, Williams. Raiders committed $16 mil in 2011 to Michael Huff.[/quote]
Saw that tweet last night.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Amen brother.
As much as I would much, much rather watch a competitive baseball team, baseball is still fucking fun to watch. The Cubs have some players who really good at baseball (Garza, Castro, Marmol) and I like watching people who are good at baseball play baseball.
I know some other season ticket holders who haven’t even bothered going to the games and I don’t get it. I still go whenever I have tickets. I’d rather watch bad baseball on a warm sunny Saturday with a Red Stripe in my hand at Wrigley than not watch baseball at all.
The WreckardQuote Reply
I live out in Denver. you guys should hear the Sports Radio out here regarding the Rockeis and the Ubaldo trade.
paraphrasing:
“I dare you to find another MLB franchise that takes such an arrogant and know-it-all stance on player transactions and franchise direction”
“The way the Rockies trashed Ubaldo’s trade value was utterly disgraceful”
haha tones of home.
ABQuote Reply
[quote name=AB]I live out in Denver. you guys should hear the Sports Radio out here regarding the Rockeis and the Ubaldo trade.
paraphrasing:
“I dare you to find another MLB franchise that takes such an arrogant and know-it-all stance on player transactions and franchise direction”
“The way the Rockies trashed Ubaldo’s trade value was utterly disgraceful”
haha tones of home.[/quote]Yeah, AB, I’ve really started to take a different approach to everything I thought I knew about the Cubs. It’s not fair for me to criticize them if it’s something every other organization does and the truth is, I don’t have the foggiest damn clue what every other organization does. I do know that trashing players isn’t exclusive to Chicago. I’d prefer the Cubs didn’t do it, but I’d also prefer the Rockies didn’t do it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, AB, I’ve really started to take a different approach to everything I thought I knew about the Cubs. It’s not fair for me to criticize them if it’s something every other organization does and the truth is, I don’t have the foggiest damn clue what every other organization does. [/quote]
TEX doesn’t do it. They’re cool.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]TEX doesn’t do it. They’re cool.[/quote]This isn’t jr high.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]TEX doesn’t do it. They’re cool.[/quote]
They have The Factor
BerseliusQuote Reply
false.
WaLiQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
^ Don’t know if there’s a color version of the Rick Monday photo, and the lunch box should probably be blue, but there’s your random Photoshop project du jour.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So Michael Cuddyer is a FA this year. Unless he signs an extension he is the Cubs 2012 starting 3B.
JManQuote Reply
preview up http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-cincinnati-reds-54-57-at-chicago-cubs-47-65.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]there’s your random Photoshop project du jour.[/quote]
Who are you talking to?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply