Chris Jaffe looked at the Cubs worst starts and found that this 15-31 bunch ties for 5th worst with the 1962 team. Jaffe's article is worth a read. It's a brief article so it won't take you very long.
Last night I became curious how well the Cubs would have to play the rest of the season to reach certain win totals at the end of the year. Let's start with the most obvious one: how well do they have to play to win the division? Baseball Prospectus projects the Cardinals will win 90.5 games by the end of the season. So I decided to go ahead and calculate how well they'd have to play to win anywhere between 60 and 91 games.
| EoS Wins | RoS Wins | RoS Losses | RoS Win % |
| 91 | 76 | 40 | .655 |
| 90 | 75 | 41 | .647 |
| 89 | 74 | 42 | .638 |
| 88 | 73 | 43 | .629 |
| 87 | 72 | 44 | .621 |
| 86 | 71 | 45 | .612 |
| 85 | 70 | 46 | .603 |
| 84 | 69 | 47 | .595 |
| 83 | 68 | 48 | .586 |
| 82 | 67 | 49 | .578 |
| 81 | 66 | 50 | .569 |
| 80 | 65 | 51 | .560 |
| 79 | 64 | 52 | .552 |
| 78 | 63 | 53 | .543 |
| 77 | 62 | 54 | .534 |
| 76 | 61 | 55 | .526 |
| 75 | 60 | 56 | .517 |
| 74 | 59 | 57 | .509 |
| 73 | 58 | 58 | .500 |
| 72 | 57 | 59 | .491 |
| 71 | 56 | 60 | .483 |
| 70 | 55 | 61 | .474 |
| 69 | 54 | 62 | .466 |
| 68 | 53 | 63 | .457 |
| 67 | 52 | 64 | .448 |
| 66 | 51 | 65 | .440 |
| 65 | 50 | 66 | .431 |
| 64 | 49 | 67 | .422 |
| 63 | 48 | 68 | .414 |
| 62 | 47 | 69 | .405 |
| 61 | 46 | 70 | .397 |
| 60 | 45 | 71 | .388 |
EoS – End of Season
RoS – Rest of Season
PECOTA is projecting them to win 69 games (68.6 to be precise). They're expecting the Cubs to play 8 to 10 games under .500 the rest of the way. If the Cubs were to play .500 ball, they'd only accomplish 73 wins and the right to brag that they didn't lose 90. Playing .500 ball the rest of the way seems unlikely. If that's unlikely, what about the division? .655!
Maybe you're thinking the Cardinals could stumble and fail to win 85. That's true, but the Reds EoS wins projection is 88.1. For the Cubs to beat the Reds they'd have to play better than .635 ball the rest of the way. For what it's worth, PECOTA projects the Cubs have a 0% chance of reaching the post-season. It's not actually 0%, but rounding it gives you 0. PECOTA also projects the Cubs to finish in 6th place and have the third pick in the 2013 draft.
If the Cubs are to lose 100 they have to play no better than .405 baseball the rest of the way. I wouldn't rule that out though I don't think it's likely. I think PECOTA is too optimisic. I don't see this team finishing the season with 70 or more wins. If I had to guess I'd go with 67 or 68. The average of the 6 worst Cubs teams who started as poorly as this team is 66 wins.
I thought I'd also add that I'm beginning to wonder about whether or not it's even worth extending Matt Garza. Sure, it would be nice to have him around, but he's going to cost a lot of money and he's going to be playing on a lot of bad Cubs teams. I also wonder why Garza would even consider re-signing with the Cubs when he could join a contender when the season is done. If I was the Cubs, I'd be shopping Garza at the trade deadline.
Comments
Oh great, the Cubs announcers are highlighting hitting numbers at different counts for today’s “Stats Sunday.” Weak.
ACTQuote Reply
Another day, another Matt Garza throwing error.
ACTQuote Reply
Trade value —> down (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wish Andrew McCutchen was a Cub.
At least we’d get something good back when we’d have to trade him for prospects in a couple years (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Uh oh, Roy Halladay was taken out of the game after 2 innings. Something’s wrong.
ACTQuote Reply
Makes me think the Cubs should’ve traded Garza at the beginning of the season for whatever Detroit wanted to give them now…I know he’ll get back to typical Garza-ness but hey, I’m only human…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Judd Sirott says it’s shoulder tightness.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
So his struggles have likely been because of that. Sucks for the Phillies.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
What’s Dolis’ excuse?
ACTQuote Reply
At least we get to find out what 424 had in mind for the post game if the got to 12 in a row.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m hoping for a Sesame Street song that helps us count to 12.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Len, its stats day. Use them to talk about how Dolis sucks. Not hard to do.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
K/BB ratio is a good place to start.
ACTQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Cubs relievers
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
He should be struggling in AAA.
mb21Quote Reply
I was thinking just that but focusing on his minor league numbers and how such poor peripherals at those levels are an indication of how much he sucks.
mb21Quote Reply
The radio guys are searching for non-baseball subjects to talk about.
ACTQuote Reply
Hmmm. I’m assuming that Sveum won’t get fired even if they lose 30 in a row but I can see the headlines now…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rangers put up a 7 spot in the second. They like scoring.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
They are good at baseball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
When did the Cubs radio broadcast become an infomercial for Ron Santo books and CD’s?
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I thought Pat Hughes co-wrote the book so there might be some personal interest in there, especially when the Cubs’ chance of winning this game approaches 0.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Starlin was mad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTS —-> Wheels down in D.C.
GBTSQuote Reply
I haven’t seen a team score as many meaningless runs as this one.
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
Just in time to catch the ending of the cubs game.
mb21Quote Reply
New recap: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/cubs-post-game-recap-by-sesame-street-counting-to-12-old-school.html
Aisle424Quote Reply