John Heyman passes along a few nuggets today with respect to the Cubs' efforts to extend Jeff Samardzija. JefF7 is three years from free agency, and the Cubs have apparently made two distinct efforts to extend him, to no avail. The two are apparently far enough apart that talks are on hold. We have had some word about this previously, but Heyman provides more:
Word is, the Cubs' offer was "well above" the nearly $30 million, five-year deal the Rangers gave Derek Holland last spring, though with Samardzija a year closer to free agency (he has three years to go) and other factors, he's believe to be seeking something in an entirely different ballpark.
This is more evidence that the front office is not afraid to make decisions based on one year's worth of performance. A year ago, it seemed as if Samardzija was pitching his way towards unemployment and the decision to move him to the rotation was laughable around these parts. The Cubs seem satisfied enough with his 2012 performance to want Samardzija at least through his age-32 season, though obviously not enough to match his demands.
As Heyman mentions, Samardzija obviously isn't lacking in confidence, as another strong season would likely drive up his price substantially. His refusal to accept a deal likely also reflects an understanding of the free agent market, as his next deal is likely to be the largest of his career, and he will be more attractive to suitors following his age 30 season than if he is extended. It probably also doesn't hurt that Samardzija hauled in a significant bonus in the draft, and based on that financial security can take a riskier position at this point in his career.
Comments
Well above 5/30? 5/35?
2013: 2.64
2014: 5*
2015: 10*
The lady two are best case scenarios through arbitration. Total there is 17.64 million and that’s the max
5/30 sounds fairly good for Jeff Samardzija.
I’m not sure I buy Heyman’s remarks here unless by well above he means something like 7/45 or 7/50.
dmick89Quote Reply
At 7/45 or 7/50 I could see Jeff Samardzija passing, but I don’t think he will make much more than 30 million over the next 5.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’d probably have to be at least in line with the contract Chris Sale just got, and likely more since Sale was still pre-arb. Sale basically got a modified Longoria/Moore-style contract and I’m guessing that’s what Theo/Jed tried to do. As GW said, Samardzija has enough $$ so he can afford to make the Cubs pay him more by waiting it out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
That’s true of quite a few players who have held out for more money in free agency. Even guys coming off huge contracts have held out for more money.
My point was that we know he almost certainly won’t make more than $17.5 million in arbitration over the next 3 years so a 5/30 or 5/35 deal is more than fair for Samardzija. Garza was a super 2, was better earlier in his career than Samardzija was, and over his first 3 arbitrations he earned just over $18 million.
We don’t know what Heyman means by well above 5/30. If I had to guess it wasn’t 5/35 or even 5/40, but probably 7/50 or something like that. At that point Samardzija is probably thinking he can do better if he just stays healthy. And he’s probably right. But over 5 years he’s not going to earn much more than $40 million even if he doesn’t sign an extension. That’s if he stays healthy and keeps pitching as he did last year. Neither of those is likely due to the risk of pitcher injury and age-related decline.
Let’s say he earns $17.5 million over the next 3 and then signs a 5/75 contract. He ended up making $47 million over those 5 years. That would probably be as close to best case scenario as possible.
By well over 5/30, Heyman could have meant 5/31 for all we know.
I’d like to see another year from him before the Cubs extend him so it’s just fine with me that they couldn’t get it done.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hey, GBTS, did you say you’re in London? How long you here?
fang2415Quote Reply
I think Heyman tends to be full of crap.
SVBQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, i’m not entirely convinced that Samardzija is the ace that he wants to be paid like. I’m fine with the Cubs waiting, even if the cost goes up. It’s not like the Cubs can’t give him a lot of money if he truly deserves it or anything.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Even if he reaches free agency without that contract, there’s the question of whether or not you want to extend someone his age. I could accept the argument, assuming he keeps pitching well, that he less mileage on his arm than other similarly aged starters and would therefore age a bit differently, but still.
dmick89Quote Reply
WATN? Archer, Guyer and Chironos all sent to minors in the last few days.
SVBQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Good day for the cubs starting pitchers.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think it might be fair to cut Baker some slack. I assume this is his first appearance, so he’s way behind the hitters.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
And I have low hopes for Villanueva anyway.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/how-much-is-jeff-samardzija-worth.html
dmick89Quote Reply