The Cubs open their first homestand against a team that is in even worse shape than they are. The Brewers are already missing first basemen Corey Hart and Mat Gamel due to injuries suffered before the season, and in the past week 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Ryan Braun, and SS Jean Segura have all been banged up. None of the injuries are necessarily *that* bad, but the Brewers didn't want a short bench so Ramirez hit the DL. I wouldn't be surprised to see Segura follow him there too. The Brewers already had SS Alex Gonzalez playing first, now he'll probably move to SS if Segura can't go and (dying laughing) Yuniesky Betancourt (dying laughing) is probably their starting first or third baseman.
Team Overviews
2012 NL ranks listed in parentheses
| Brewers | Cubs | |
| wRC+ | 105 (2nd) | 80 (16th) |
| BSR | 7.4 (2nd) | -8.1 (14th) |
| UZR | -4.4 (9th) | 30.5 (2nd) |
| DRS | 14 (3rd) | -7 (7th) |
| SP FIP- | 96 (4th) | 108 (13th) |
| RP FIP- | 101 (11th) | 116 (16th) |
The Brewers had a better year than I remembered, finishing with a 83-70 record but well out of the last playoff spot. They lost half of their rotation from last year, with Zack Greinke going to LA, Shaun Marcum going to the Mets, and Randy Wolf going upstate to live on a farm with a nice family (and millions of dollars). Offensively their best player is obviously Braun, but don't sleep on the rest of the outfield. Norichika Aoki quietly had a solid year and settled into the leadoff role, and while Carlos Gomez is still a terrible OBP guy (.305), he has plus power and speed and could be the best defensive center fielder in the NL now that Michael Bourn is in Cleveland.
Injuries
I covered most of the Brewers ones above, but one of the other reasons why they had to break the glass on Yuni was because their usual backup infielders, Jeff Bianchi and Tyler Greene, are both on the DL as well.
Sveum thinks Barney could be back in a week. He gets his stitches removed soon, and has already taken some BP and fielded some grounders. Ian Stewart is DHing in extended spring training, but it will probably be a few days until he starts playing on defense. Matt Garza threw another bullpen session yesterday without incident.
Storylines and Players to watch
There's going to be epic amounts of booing whenever Ryan Braun steps to the plate. We might have a chance to see dueling bullpen implosions, as Brewers closer John Axford has been extremely hittable in the small sample of the season we've had thus far. He had plenty of struggles with walking batters last year (5.06 K/9), so he can get in trouble in a hurry.
The Cubs are still waiting for a few of their starters to heat up. Soriano has four singles and nine strikeouts, and leadoff man David DeJesus has two hits (both doubles) and a single walk. Starlin Castro has yet to record an extra base hit as well.
Pitching Matchups
2012 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and 2013 ZiPS projected FIP are listed for each pitcher.
Monday: Marco Estrada, RHP (3.64, 86, 3.48, 3.80) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.03, 99, 3.79, 3.62) 1:20 PM CT
Estrada was knocked around in his first start, facing the Rockies. He struck out eight batters with no walks, but was burned by the long ball. Estrada has been a fairly extreme flyball pitcher in his career, so pitching in Wrigley in April is likely to suit him. He throws mostly fastballs, curves, and changeups. His fastball is definitely his best pitch, which is a little strange considering it averages around 91. He must get a lot of movement.
Edwin Jackson's last start looks okay from the statline, but I thought the start was pretty rocky. Jackson struck out five and walked one, but seemed to be struggling with his control of his fastball throughout the start. He'll get another chance against this decimated Brewers lineup.
Tuesday: Wily Peralta, RHP (2.48, 68, 3.56, 4.47) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.27, 120, 4.62 ,4.39) 7:05 PM CT
I'll admit I don't know much about Peralta. He went up the ladder from high-A in 2010 to the starting rotation this year. It looks like much of his (pretty good) minor league numbers are related to a very low home run rate. He can be pretty wild but gets his share of strikeouts. He's a 95 mph fastball-sinker pitcher, which probably explains the home run rate somewhat. He gave up four runs, including a homer, in 5.1 innings against the Rockies in his first start.
Wood was solid in his last start, throwing six innings of shutout ball. I'm struggling to say much more about Travis Wood. He's okay, I guess #thisisayear
Wednesday: Kyle Lohse, RHP (2.86, 92, 3.96, 3.60) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (5.09, 92, 3.87, 3.83), 7:05 PM CT
Lohse was only signed a few weeks ago, thanks to the CBA's latest free agent compensation boondoggle, as well as some pretty high salary demands for a pitcher in his mid thirties. Lohse is another member of the Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame. He was mostly terrible during his 5 seasons with the Twins, but reinvented himself as a sinkerballer with Dave Duncan after joining the Cards. He's been solid ever since, aside from 2010 in which he was suffering from a rare elbow malady.
Feldman was awful in his first start. He gave up four runs in four innings and change, and was lucky that he didn't give up even more. His control was all over the place. I'm really hoping that he's the one who gets squeezed out of the rotation when Garza gets back. Villaneuva seems like the obvious choice for that though, and I wouldn't put Travis Wood out of the question either since the Cubs are likely planning to try and trade Feldman and Villanueva.
Prediction
I think the Cubs win today, but lose the next two. Two pitchers with heavy sinkers against this lineup? At least the Cubs have the prospect of Yuni trying to field those grounders.
Comments
Wind howling out today
BerseliusQuote Reply
Looks like Segura is starting today, but no Braun.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Did you write that yourself?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Would you ask
Tom PettyPaul Sullivan that question?mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
…yes?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
I guess the counter argument regarding sullivan and plagiarism is this: BN has Sun times linked and referenced numerous times throughout the article, so its being attributed and essentially summarizing the article. For someone like me, who is not going to get on the ST website under nearly any circumstance, at least I’m clicking through sometimes to see the article that I otherwise would not have know even existed. Sullivan is getting page hits when his articles get summarized and linked.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I didn’t read the ST article and have no opinion on this issue. However, what exactly is plagiarism? Is there a legal definition?
dmick89Quote Reply
According to the first sentence that interested me on wikipedia, there doesn’t appear to be a legal definition of plagiarism.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Some Trib articles are also behind a paywall, not sure about Sun-Times though. So they’re losing direct hits and revenue if the buck stops at BN.
@ dmick89:
We need a GBTS signal.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think plagiarism is more of an academic term, and legal issues arise when you have piracy or copyright infringements.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Best I can tell, Brett didn’t pass the info off as his own work. He provided a link to the original source.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Is there any legal action the Tribune could take? And if so, why wouldn’t they do that, as opposed to making the claim that they did?
This just seems like petty bullshit to me. I saw Brett was going to respond in some post or something, but I kind of wish he wouldn’t. I know he needs to be more friendly with these guys than we do, but I don’t see how this turns out well for him. I would guess that if a journalist like Sullivan throws that word around that he’s made up his mind and won’t change it. Not to mention, I don’t think there’s any reason to want Sullivan on your side.
/$0.02
dmick89Quote Reply
There are a bunch of academics around here. Come on. Enlighten us.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yea, I think plagiarism is more of an academic concept where one passes of concepts or writing as their own without referencing the original source. That doesn’t seem to me like what Brett did. But i don’t really care; I’m not going to bother reading Sullivan or Wittenmeyer anyway.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I don’t think Brett has ever taken a pay article like one from ESPN Insider or the like and just copy/pasted the whole thing out in public. So I doubt they can get him for stuff like that. If he just tells people the gist of something and leads them to the source, more power to the source and I can’t foresee anyone giving him trouble. But Brett’s the lawyer, not me (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Plagiarism is not a legal concept, but “plagiarizing” someone in an academic sense could certainly result in a violation of copyright.
As someone who went to school for journalism, worked very briefly in the journalism field, and is now heavily involved in academic publishing, making a public accusation that tosses out the P-word is really serious and borderline defamatory, based on who the target is. I really hope Sullivan has more in his arsenal than just “He summarizes my articles and provides a link that not enough people are clicking.”
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Several years ago (2006?) Will Carroll sent me an email asking me to remove something I had quoted. He felt I quoted too much and I went ahead and removed it. He didn’t complain on twitter or facebook or anything. I just don’t get why Sullivan didn’t handle it privately. Then again, I have no idea what kind of relationship they have. I would not expect Sullivan to handle any issue with me (ACB or this blog) privately. He would complain to HJE instead as he did in the past.
dmick89Quote Reply
GBTS wrote:
That’s what I was thinking. I think Sully is a piece of garbage that would stoop to the lowest levels, but any journalist throwing that word around is a serious accusation.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pay no attention to the fact that the guy talking about copyright law has a Photoshopped avatar of a person pulled from a commercial website.
GBTSQuote Reply
Doesn’t MLBTR exist almost solely because of what other people have reported? I don’t get to read as much of Brett’s stuff as I might like, but I’ve never thought he was at MLBTR’s level, which is basically just an rss feed for tons of sites.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
That works. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Chicago Cubs:
1. CF: David DeJesus
2. SS: Starlin Castro
3. 1B: Anthony Rizzo
4. LF: Alfonso Soriano
5. RF: Nate Schierholtz
6. C: Welington Castillo
7. 3B: Luis Valbuena
8. 2B: Brent Lillibridge
9. SP: Edwin Jackson
plagiarized from mlb.com
dmick89Quote Reply
GBTS, how’s the OV Legal Department coming along?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Just want to make sure Myles sees my comment in the previous thread. I got no beef in the least.
On the Sullivan thing, I’ll be writing out my thoughts. He was not accusing me of a specific instance of plagiarism (nor have I ever even remotely approached such a thing – or a copyright violation, for that matter). He was just beefing generically. Though I’m not thrilled with his choice of words.
BrettQuote Reply
Oh, and for the record …
If all I did at BN was copy/paste, link other people, etc., I suspect BN wouldn’t survive very long. I do quite a bit more than that, but thoughtful aggregation of other reports is absolutely an important part of what I do.
BrettQuote Reply
Brett wrote:
Good to know. Thanks for clearing it up, and you know I still love your work. I unfollowed Paul so I guess I’m on #teambrett
MylesQuote Reply
I suspect Paul doesn’t understand the concept of an aggregator.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9146327/jonah-keri-ranks-mlb-teams
jonah tears into the brewers here.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/201960491.html
axford maybe, probably out as closer
GWQuote Reply
Robinson Chirinos —–> Rangers
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It’s coming along nicely. It’s across the street from a T.G.I.Fridays and we have a reciprocal agreement where we recommend clients to one another.
GBTSQuote Reply
TOOTJAPAN!
5 Run Home RunQuote Reply
Fuck.
WaLiQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
GBTSQuote Reply
Walking Bettencort. That’s how low we are as team.
joshQuote Reply
I have seen the shift not work out lately. It stinks because I know there are numbers behind the shift, but the first hit today the 2B was shifted towards 1B and on the next hit the SS was shifted towards 3B. I feel like a few hits vs the Braves were like that too. Then again, the human brain likes to remember when shit doesn’t work, not when it works out.
WaLiQuote Reply
The Cubs are miserable. I probably can’t pay attention to the MLB team this year. When will they be good again, 2015? ugh
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
On the “P” word, you’re all right that giving credit to a source and adding the link means it’s no longer plagiarism, but if one of my students turned in a paper with a big copy and paste from a web article and a citation and 2 sentences of their own analysis, I’m still going to fail them.
I’m not trying to defend Sully’s accusations here Bret, but it did strike me in the Wrigley Renovations article that you had quoted too much and not done enough of your own interpretation. I know you wanted to get the article up quickly because it’s a pressing matter. It could, however, serve as a chance for reflection on your process. Also, as MB stated above, if your quote is too big, it prevents someone like me from clicking through the link. Give credit (and click throughs) where it’s due, even if it is to the Sun Times or Trib. In this instance, the Sun Times had some valuable info and it deserved recognition.
/$0.02
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
That was nice.
5 Run Home RunQuote Reply
26.2cubfan wrote:
I don’t disagree with any of the essence of your point, and I appreciate the thoughtful take. I disagree with your take on the specifics of that particular article or the thousands that preceded it, but it’s absolutely an opportunity to reflect. Appreciated.
BrettQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Much love. As lame as it sounds, I honestly think I just got busy around that time.
BrettQuote Reply
Lead off double and can’t knock him in with your 3, 4, or 5. Ugh
WaLiQuote Reply
First time I’ve been to Tribune’s site in a long time, but I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to do this.
dmick89Quote Reply
I should ask Sullivan if that’s plagiarism.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Castillo trying to get the umpire to call a swing on a batter while the ball has gotten by him and a runner on base. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
This amused me. Wait until Jonah sees the Cubs trot out Valbuena and Lillibridge at the corners.
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
Cubs trying not to lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs decided to make it interesting. Finally.
joshQuote Reply
This is why there is no point in tuning in before the ninth inning.
joshQuote Reply
Fucking wind. At least the Cubs make losing entertaining.
5 Run Home RunQuote Reply
I’ve not been paying attention, but is this the first obligatory ninth inning rally of the season?
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Yes it is. First of many.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ESPNChiCubs James Russell on boos for Marmol: “You lose some respect for the fans…There’s no room for it.”
Well played, James Russell.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is it too early to say Roy Halladay is washed up? Why, he can’t even get Marlon Byrd out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Even Roy Halladay is getting boos.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He’s probably going to need some booze after tonight’s outing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Spike Albrecht and I went to the same high school, I’m giving out autographs if anyone’s interested.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
A little late to the game, but I basically agree with 26.2.
If you copy/paste someone else’s work and pass it off as your own, it is plagiarism. Copyright is a separate but related issue. If a student does it as a term paper, for example, it would never be published, so it isn’t a copyright violation, but it is unethical and plagiarism. In my classes they fail the assignment with no option to make it up and the second time they fail the class. Our student code of conduct says they can be expelled, but I don’t go that far because I know I won’t be backed up by the admin in a fight like this. (Plus they are likely to fail the course anyway.) If you do it for a research pub, you are plagiarizing the author, but not the copyright is probably held by the publisher and not the author (in science writing–not sure in other fields) so the copyright violation is against Thomsen Reuters Blackwell et al., or whoever.
I edited a special issue of a journal once and discovered a submission had been 42% plagiarized from another source, based on wordcount in MS word. No citation of the original author. We obviously rejected the manuscript and banned him from publishing in our journal.
Brett’s article wasn’t plagiarism because it was sourced and linked. It did heavily lean on a lengthy quote. He could have just posted a subset of the bulleted points, I suppose. I think the idea that an aggregator should entice readers to click through has merit, but honestly I have no idea where to draw the line to determine the standard.
SVBQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/journeymen-of-tomorrow-4-8-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply