The Cubs will get a whiff of success this weekend, and it will probably be coming from the other dugout. (Blatantly plagarized from Brett's preview blurb at Bleacher Nation, because it's too funny. Take that, Paul Sullivan. Or something.) The Cubs are on a roll, not having lost for two straight days. The Giants, meanwhile, have crushed all before them and are coming off a sweep of the Rockies. I've been more down on the Giants this year than most, but they're a team that I always seem to underrate.
Team Overviews
2012 NL rank listed for each stat
| Giants | Cubs | |
| wRC+ | 99 (4th) | 80 (16th) |
| BSR | 4.6 (7th) | -8.1 (14th) |
| UZR | 13.9 (4th) | 30.5 (2nd) |
| DRS | -7 (8th) | -7 (7th) |
| SP FIP- | 102 (10th) | 108 (13th) |
| RP FIP- | 99 (10th) | 116 (16th) |
Injury news
The Giants have no significant injuries to speak of. Pablo Sandoval had some nerve irritation in his elbow in March that the Giants are being careful with, but that's about it.
Darwin Barney starts a rehab assignment with Kane County tomorrow.
Fun with small sample sizes
Welington Castillo has been the Cubs hottest hitter so far this year. He has a .381/.409/.619 slash line, good for a .440 wOBA. Castillo has looked pretty good at the plate in general, making solid contact. I like his throwing arm behind the plate, though his throws have not been as accurate as in the first few games. It seems like a lot of runners have been stealing off the pitchers. Nate Schierholtz is right behind Castillo, with .304/.385/.565 and .406. I'm finding myself liking the RF platoon a lot more than I thought I would in the offseason. One nice thing about Schierholtz is that he's not a big enough name that a manager is likely to keep him out there vs lefties since he's had a hot start to the year. There's still time yet.
Jeff Samardzija has a K% of 40.7%.
Brent Lillibridge is 0 for 17 with no walks. Marlon Byrd must be his role model.
Tim Lincecum has walked 11 batters in 11 innings.
Pitching matchups
I list each pitcher's 2012 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and their 2013 ZiPS projection
Thursday: Ryan Vogelsong, RHP (3.37, 99, 4.15, 3.87) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (5.09, 86, 3.87, 4.08), 1:20 PM CT
Vogelsong was so bad that the Wandy Rodriguez HOF might as well be renamed in his honor. I'm still kind of baffled by how good he's been since joining the Giants (see also: Samardzija, Jeff). He's not a guy who strikes too many batters out, and his big problem in his Pirates career was walks. It dropped by one and a half walkers per nine in his second career, and has showed no signs of inching up. He was hit hard by the Cardinals in his first start, giving up five runs in five innings and change. The Cards big inning doesn't necessarily reflect badly on him though – it was an infield single, a walk, and a couple more singles and suddenly it was three runs. He has a decent fastball, but his best pitch is his curveball.
Feldman (and everyone else) was pushed back a day due to the rainout. I'm lazy, so I'll just repeat what I wrote in my last preview.
Feldman was awful in his first start. He gave up four runs in four innings and change, and was lucky that he didn't give up even more. His control was all over the place. I'm really hoping that he's the one who gets squeezed out of the rotation when Garza gets back. Villaneuva seems like the obvious choice for that though, and I wouldn't put Travis Wood out of the question either since the Cubs are likely planning to try and trade Feldman and Villanueva.
Friday: Matt Cain, RHP (2.79, 61, 3.82, 3.30) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (4.16, 114, 4.09, 4.22), 1:20 PM CT
I guess Cain has earned the right not to be referred to as Ricky Nolasco around here. Cain's best pitch is all of them, but especially his slider, which he throws equally likely on any count. Cain shut out the Dodgers for six innings on opening day, but was absolutely shelled by the Cardinals in his following start. He gave up nine runs in 3.2 innings and struck out only two.
I thought Villaneueva looked pretty good in his last start, and that's no even considering his excellent mustache. He worked into the seventh, striking out six and allowing only a solo HR to Justin Upton. Carlos Marmol apparently decided to one-up him by allowing homers to both Uptons in the ninth.
Saturday: Madison Bumgarner, LHP (3.37, 94, 3.45, 3.24) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.81, 89, 3.38, 3.39), 12:05 PM CT
Bumgarner went eight innings in his first start shutting out the Dodgers on two hits, striking out six, and walking no one. He struggled in his next start against the Rockies, walking five in 5.2 innings but only yielding two runs. He'll get to face the vaunted Cubs RHH lineup that looked so awful against the likes of Wandy and Mike Minor.
Shark was electric for the first four innings of Sunday's game, striking out ten batters. Things started getting wild for him when he had to pitch out of the stretch later in the game though. He walked two batters and threw two wild pitches in the fifth, then had a walk and a HBP on his way out in the sixth. But those first four innings, wow. Kerry Wood was on everyone's mind. He had everything going to start that game.
Sunday: The Collapsing Remains of Tim Lincecum's Career, RHP (5.18, 98, 3.82, 3.70), vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.03, 99, 3.79, 3.68), 1:20 PM CT
Lincecum fell off a cliff after signing his giant extension at the beginning of 2012. His strikeout rate was much steadier than I thought, but he started walking a lot more batters, and coughed up some more gopherballs. Some of that could be bad luck, but the concerning thing is that he lost 2 mph off his fastball last year, and it looks like it had a detrimental effect on the rest of his pitches too. His changeup velocity did not drop, for example. Still, I don't know how much of a difference a 7mph vs a 9mph gap between those pitches would make. He's walked 11 batters already this year.
Jackson got rocked early in his last start, but the coaching staff noticed something was up with his grip and he pitched fine after that. He's still hoping to put together his first solid start in a Cubs uniform. Also that the Chicago Police weren't so zealous about parking violations.
Lineups for today's game
Giants
- CF Angel Pagan
- SS Brandon Crawford
- 3B Pablo Sandoval
- C Buster Posey
- RF Hunter Pence
- 1B Brandon Belt
- LF Gregor Blanco
- 2B Nick Noonan
- P Vogelsong
Cubs
- CF David DeJesus
- SS Starlin Castro
- 1B Anthony Rizzo
- LF Alfonso Soriano
- RF Nate Schierholtz
- C Welington Castillo
- 3B Luis Valbuena
- 2B Hide your kids
- P Feldman
Comments
@ Akabari:
i kind of like michigan turns
GWQuote Reply
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/22051821/jorge-soler-to-be-suspended-for-batwielding-incident
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
It’s nothing like a New Jersey onramp, in which you drive your car into reverse down the exit ramp to get on a highway (I’ve seen this happen)
BerseliusQuote Reply
from wikipedia:
GWQuote Reply
@josh
Yeah, I live in Grand Rapids and they are on every main street, really. Esepcially trying to learn a city makes it hard since you think you passed everything but you haven’t even come up to turn left yet.
They’re all over the state and like GW said, they’re actually called Michigan Lefts. I think they’re terrible, too.
And yeah, they probably ARE safer for certain things, but having to do a sharp ass Uturn into traffic is nerve wracking for someone like me who is the least aggressive driver on the face of the earth.
AkabariQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Feldman
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
Plagiarism.
AkabariQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
five games, apparently. sounds light to me.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, makes me think what we’ve heard was an exaggeration of what happened.
dmick89Quote Reply
Winner.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
No, I wouldn’t like that.
joshQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
plagarised from MB
BerseliusQuote Reply
Here on the north side of Indianapolis (to which Myles can probably attest to), we have roundabouts everywhere. I actually kinda like them.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Dammit. Just realized I plagiarized the Soler news on a dead thread.
/going without dinner
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
give it a few months. i think they end up working out pretty well, mainly because of the elimination of the left turn light phase.
GWQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
Yeah. If you live in Carmel, you are surrounded by them. I think they are pretty sweet, EXCEPT the double roundabouts (they have a few in Avon). Those kinda suck.
I’m not rich enough to live in Carmel, so I live on the southwest side. We have good old-fashioned stoplights and people that look like Brent Lillibridge here.
MylesQuote Reply
Lilliburg should celebrate his two RBI on a weak ass single by shaving. Granted, it will make him look like a child rather than a child molester, but at least he won’t be mistaken for a neighbor of Myles.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
There was a roundabout in Mt Prospect by my Dr’s office. They did it, presumably, because it was a 6-way intersection. You got to it after dipping below a railroad track, so the first couple of times you reach it its like blindfolded frogger.
joshQuote Reply
Seems like a lot of errors for Castro so far this year
BerseliusQuote Reply
CUBS D IS GURD!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I assume GURD is Swedish for Shitty.
Tom RickettsQuote Reply
@ Tom Ricketts:
Dammit. I hate it when I’m not logged in and don’t fucking notice…
BTW, dmick, can you edit the generic avatar to have a cowboy hat?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Tom Ricketts:
joshQuote Reply
Commenter on the hardball talk
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
joshQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Walked the pitcher?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Perfect
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’ll see if I can add that. Nice job.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs gotta Cub
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
What’s worse is walking the fucking pitcher to fucking walk in a fucking run to tie the fucking game. Fuck.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
At some point, you just have to laugh. This team could break a record for futility.
joshQuote Reply
I’m impressed that the Cubs’ leader gave up 10 baserunners in four innings but no earned runs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
If nothing else, seems like you should be able to replace the default avatar file or something. May be more effort than it’s worth.
joshQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
(dying laughing) did that happen?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
fixed
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Hell of an inning for Takahashi.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Right, especially considering the cowboy hat thing is like 2 weeks old now, and is destined to get replaced soon.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Did that just take an hour?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Exactly
joshQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
If fedoras are the next fad, I think we’re still good.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
That inning took our entire lives. That inning will still be going when we’re all nothing but dust and life nothing but a holographic simulation.
joshQuote Reply
That gravatar isn’t hosted on our site so it would probably require a plugin.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice catch by Pagan b
dmick89Quote Reply
I would not have predicted a 1-2-3 inning from Valbuena, Lillibridge, and Sappelt.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Or you could try hacking the Matrix.
EDIT: Yeah, I was thinking it was something like that. No bigs.
joshQuote Reply
Who the hell would want to have the new Samung Mega as they’re phone? The fucking thing is huge.
dmick89Quote Reply
Just out of curiosity, I found a hack to make your own mystery man:
http://buildinternet.com/2009/02/how-to-change-the-default-gravatar-in-wordpress/
joshQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
You could look at it as a small tablet.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Thanks. I’ll check that out tomorrow.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Could you take the cubby facepalm and add that hat to it, also?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
That’s basically what it is, but I’m thinking more about how to fit that damn thing in your pocket. Obviously that wouldn’t be where you’d carry it, which would make it useless to me. If I have to carry a bag everywhere or get into it in order to answer the phone, I’d pull out of my baseball bat and attack it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Steve Clevenger ——————-> Big Lefty Bat off the Bench
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Seriously, Lillibridge must feel pretty fucking useless to get lifted in favor of Clevenger. (I mean, he is, but…)
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It’s the cell phone equivelant of rocking a boombox on your shoulder. Stylish, but wildly impractical.
uncle daveQuote Reply
James Russell —> ice water in veins
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I can’t wait until Barney and Stewart come back. That should really bolster the bottom of the lineup.
uncle daveQuote Reply
O9R
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Look, I know this is serious nitpicking at this point, but is Hairston hurt? He’s the only guy who vaguely resembles a Major League hitter on the Cubs bench today and he’s been passed over in favor of Sappelt, Clevenger, and Navarro. Even with his platoon split he seems like a better option than all three of those guys.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Jesus that was 30 feet outside, Castro.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m also confused by how little playing time Jerry’s bro is getting.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I was wondering the same thing. Weird calls by Sveum.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jaboroni alert behind home plate
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I DEMAND ROBOT UMPIRES!!!
WaLiQuote Reply
Even if he’s not the best option to hit at the time, he needs to play. Sveum needs to play the guys who have value, whether that’s young guys who might be part of the team in later years or guys who we’re trying to trade. DeJesus and Hairston need to be in there as much as possible to showcase their skills. Sappelt and Clevenger are non-prospects with no MLB value. Those are the guys who need to rot on the bench.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I was confused at the time but it was sort of early and I figured that Dale wanted to use Hairston later on in the game in a bigger spot. Leading off with Navarro was wacky though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I can’t even imagine talking on that thing. It’s 3.5 inches wide. Add a case to it, which would have to weight like 18 pounds to hold something that big and a lot of people won’t even be able to get one hand around it. At least not comfortably. Talking with 2 hands would kind of suck.
I guess I could see it as useful at home when you could easily set it down and talk, but that’s not so easy outside. I’ve got an iPad and I wouldn’t even want to use Facetime on it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I take offense to accusation that Dave Sappelt is a non-prospect. He’s like an ultra-fringe prospect.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
His minor league numbers line up fairly well with DeJesus, I noticed.
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’m a little suspicious because of specific they are with which types of collisions they reduced. I can see that from the pedestrian perspective, though. I’ve almost been run over by people turning left who neglected to check the crosswalk many times. You get so focused on oncoming traffic, you can forget to check that the way is clear.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
You’d pretty much have to use a headset. Do people actually talk on the phone anymore, though? Unless it’s for business or to my folks, I’d say I text 95% of the time instead.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Well, if you want to delve that deeply into it…
I feel like he’s got a bit more in him than he’s showing right now (and showed at Iowa last year), but he’s 26 and not yet established any sort of performance at the big league level. He just seems very fungible, I guess.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Mostly just my parents and my brother on occasion, but there are is at least a few times each day I make a call. Bank, doctor, drug dealers, hookers, other miscellaneous calls like that.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m just sticking with the standard issue OV phone.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’m currently testing the OV Phone 2.0, which uses the same slick design, but does email along with the same great calling features of the 1.0.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Kind of what I was thinking. Easier to use the keyboard. I could see it filling a niche, if not being a direct competitor with the iPhone. They may be testing to see what size and combination of tablet and phone is most popular.
joshQuote Reply
dodgers/padres brawl in san diego. cameras were on matt kemp who kept repeating: “that’s fucking bullshit, man.”
vin scully: “‘that’s fertilizer,’ says kemp, over and over. ‘that is fertilizer.'”
GWQuote Reply
@ GW
And apparently Greinke broke his collarbone during the fight… How very Cub of him.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ GW:
Also, this from the Dodgers official Twitter account
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Why does Carlos Quentin even care about getting hit? I thought that was his whole game plan.
joshQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/journeymen-of-tomorrow-4-11-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply
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raovatQuote Reply