I haven't posted anything in a couple weeks. Thanks to everyone else for taking over. I've mentioned it before, but I've had neck problems for 6+ months now. They've continued and I've been unable to do much of anything. Unfortunately, it's only slightly better right now because of medication and I won't be around that much over the next few months. Hopefully by then I'll be better and ready to write as much as many of you were used to.
Very early in Starlin Castro's career, I noticed some similiraties to Ichiro. I wrote about this at Another Cubs Blog, but since it was only a month after his debut, it's not worth linking to. I know I've written about it since, but can't find the article here at Obstructed View. Oh well.
The basis of the comparison was that Castro, like Ichiro, hits a lot of singles, doesn't walk much, doesn't have great power and that both are free swingers. Castro had a relatively high BABIP his first two seasons, which made me wonder if he could sustain it, much like Ichiro has in his career. I was skeptical that he could sustain it. It was more likely he could not.
He hasn't. In his first two seasons in 2010 and 2011, he had a .345 BABIP. His BABIP has fallen to .313 since. This seems to be a more sustainable BABIP for Castro who doesn't have great speed.
It's no surprise that some of his numbers have fallen off, along with the lower BABIP.
Castro batted .304/.343/.422 over his first two seasons. He had over 1200 plate appearances and a 106 OPS+. He had a .334 wOBA and a 105 wRC+. These weren't great numbers by any means, but for someone Castro's age and position, it was very good. There were some small improvements between 2010 and 2011 and every reason to believe that improvement would continue.
He had the 8th most fWAR among qualified shortstops in 2010 and 2011. He was 6th in wRC+.
While his walk rate declined slightly in 2011, that was largely due to the intentional walks he had as the number 8 hitter in 2010. He had an unintentional walk rate of 4.4% in 2010, which is not good at all. It was 4.6% in 2011. His strikeout rate declined a bit and despite that, his power numbers increased. His ISO went from .108 his rookie season to .125 his sophomore year.
His unintentional walk rate fell to 4.5% in 2012 though his power did further increase. His ISO was nearly .150 so despite the overall letdown of a performance from him last year, there was still a sign that things could be better.
However, since the end of the 2011 season, he's hit only .278/.316/.414. That's good for a 96 OPS+ over 928 plate appearances. His unintentional walk rate is 3.8% this year and his ISO is lower than it was his rookie season. He's fallen to 10th in fWAR over those years and 9th in wRC+.
He's swinging at more pitches out of the zone since the end of 2011 than his first two years. He's swinging at more pitches in the zone. His out of zone contact rate is lower, which has led to an increase in strikeouts. His zone contact rate is below 90% for the first time. The contact rates aren't necessarily bad numbers if it comes with a power increase. It has in some ways, but not in others.
When Castro came into the league as a free swinger, there wasn't yet a great deal to be concerned about. He was so young and was performing well. He would surely get better as he aged at which point it might even become a strength. It hasn't. It's as much or more a weakness today than it was the day he came into the league.
Combine the poor plate discipline with the declining BABIP and you've got a guy who hasn't improved since he reached the big leagues.
This isn't to say Castro isn't a valuable ballplayer. He is. He's stayed at SS much longer than I expected and it doesn't seem as though there's any urgency to move him to a new position at this point. Despite being close to a replacement level player this season, he's better than he's performed. His numbers will improve. He's probably end up with just over 2 fWAR.
I know myself and a couple others caught some shit saying that Castro is what he he's been a couple years ago. He was probably not going to become the superstar many thought possible. Considering the lack of improvement to this point in his career, I see even less reason to be optimistic that happens.
The Cubs recently criticized some of the returning players for not showing an improvement in their walk rate. The front office was speaking directly to Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo when this was said. Castro's walk rate is terrible and his OBP skills have fallen to that of a bottom of the order hitter. Rizzo's plate discipline hasn't improved at all this year either. It's disappointing to see on a team that has a front office as sabermetrically inclined as they are.
Comments
Callis, Law and Mayo all have the Cubs taking Appel in their latest mock drafts. I’m a fan of this.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s nice to see that Javier Baez has started to hit and be a little more patient since I’ve been away.
dmick89Quote Reply
Castro has hit a number of balls that probably should have been out but were held in by the wind. I remember him having at least 4 shots that should have been HRs that were either caught at the track or went off the wall, so I expect his power numbers are going to rise this year, which will help reduce the impact of his reduction in OBP. But yeah, I don’t expect him to be much better WAR-wise than he has been so far until he starts taking some damn walks.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m glad you mentioned this, as I think it’s right on. The FO went out of their way to criticize the “team” OBP when they could have easily just said “we’ve been unlucky” and left it at that. I think it’s pretty clear they are frustrated.
I was going to write something to that effect earlier in the week, but it would have been a few sentences long.
GWQuote Reply
Try comparing him to other players who cam into the league at the same age as Castro did, at the same position to. Perhaps Trammel or Jeter. It took Trammel I believe 6 years to really start showing more promise. You need to give Castro more time, as he came into the league way before he was ready. Trammel tried to explain this before this before he left, but of course no one was listening. Starlin is also far better defensively, and his approach at the plate. At times he takes steps back, and forward, but that is not unusual for young players.
AmieQuote Reply
I can’t get too worked up about Castro or Rizzo one way or the other because I don’t really believe they’ll be at the top of a winning Cubs lineup anyway. I love Rizzo but in a lineup that ideally includes Almora, Baez and Soler I’m not sure he hits higher than fifth. Shrug.
sitrickQuote Reply
Amie wrote:
Everybody had pretty much given up on Carlos Gomez maturing as a hitter too, and now he’s exploding. Meh.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’m not worried about his power either. I don’t think he’ll ever be a power hitter, but I think we’ll see similar ISO by the end of the year.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
i wish i had your optimism. when rizzo was soler’s age, he was destroying aaa pitching.
GWQuote Reply
@ Amie:
Derek Jeter’s 3rd, 4th and 5th seasons in his career were the best stretch he ever had. He’s a poor example to use here. Trammell is a decent one.
I’m not worried. Castro is what what he is: a guy who doesn’t take many walks and will probably never be all that good at the plate. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value (as I said).
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
I’d been working on this Castro post for about 10 days. Yes, that’s what it takes to get shit done these days. I’m going to work on another post having more to do with what the front office said, but it’s probably a week away yet.
They’re definitely frustrated and I would be too. Rizzo is still a good hitter and there’s reason to be optimistic there, but I was glad to hear the front office point this out. The Cubs still have a long way to go offensively to be a competitive team IMO.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
hope you start feeling better. maybe a prp injection is the ticket.
GWQuote Reply
Sorry about the neck issues DMick. Maybe you need acupuncture or a massage.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dmick–Brian McNamee called. He said he can fix you right up.
My phone has surprisingly good voice recognition. Maybe Siri can help you write, since you’re an Apple guy. Hope the neck responds like Adrian Peterson’s knee and not Prior’s arm.
SVBQuote Reply
@ GW:
Funny you mention that. I saw a spine specialist yesterday and he mentioned that as a possible treatment. He, like the ortho, seems to think that surgery will be required, but they have to go through the process before insurance covers it. I start physical therapy on Tuesday. If that doesn’t improve it, and neither doctor has thought it would, we’ll do some traction.
I’m basically planning to have surgery sometime in August or September.
The ortho gave me some pred more than a week ago. That has seemed to reduce some inflammation. My neck has felt better, but the shoulders and arms still hurt like hell from the pinched nerves. Today has easily been the best day I’ve had in 3 or 4 months so I’m psyched.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
been there and done that. It will get fixed sometime. It’s just the bullshit process that you have to go through, which is partly my fault. I have an implant for epilepsy and am unable to have an MRI below the head, which leaves ruling other shit out.
the good news is that the 25 pounds I put on after I tore my ACL a few years ago is gone.
dmick89Quote Reply
We should open a forum topic for suggestions on how dmick can fix his neck. (dying laughing).
One might be not sticking it out to burst the bubble of the Cubs’ latest icon: Starlin Castro. Remember he is supposed to be the second coming of Dunston, at the very least.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
(dying laughing)
I wrote much of this article with siri dictation on my iPad. I had to correct some things, but I also had to look up numbers for two years. That’s surprisingly difficult on some days. The first day I started this I opened his 3 stat pages (BPro, Bref, Fangraphs) and was done for the day. What’s funny is that I have a workflow app so I just hit command-command stats player name and all 3 tabs open in my browser.
Some days are better than others. Most have sucked, but today has been good. I’ll take it.
dmick89Quote Reply
SVB wrote:
(dying laughing) I almost did that a couple months ago. I was going to set up an Elderly OV Forum, but then I realized SK would be the only one posting there.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Sounds like the last year of my marriage.
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It could be for old souls, old bodies, and SK.
SVBQuote Reply
On another topic…do you guys think Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado are for real or just on a streak?
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
SVB wrote:
No and not this good.
MylesQuote Reply
I’ve been disappointed with Castro this year, but I do think he’s improved defensively to the point he can stay at SS 3-4 more years, and he has increased his P/PA this season to the highest of his career. I think they’re trying to teach him to hit for power more rather than get so many base hits. I’d like to see a mix of that, but wouldn’t be surprised if the newer approach “sticks” a little more in the second half of the season. I’ll take Castro at SS for now, the Cubs will suck until they upgrade numerous other positions.
Hope the neck gets better dmick
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ SVB:
machado: real; donaldson- semi-real but also streak. Hard to believe Cubs traded him for Rich Harden. Billy Beane is good at his job.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
You only had to reference me once. I am getting pretty decrepit though. My neck is OK but eyesight is going to shit and I have one or two other decline-based ailments.
LifeSK’s a bitch..Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Some things are improved. I’d say the power is despite it being down this year. Same with defense. He’s a worse baserunner according to UBR, but that’s probably typical. Some things are better and some things are worse. The Cubs P/PA as batters is interesting. Don’t they lead the league or something? You’d expect a lot of walks, but nope. Dead last in walk percentage.
dmick89Quote Reply
If someone had told us that Castro would show little overall improvement by his 4th season I think all of us would have laughed. Some expected more from him than others, but I think even berselius would agree that he’s not improved at the rate that we expected either.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Fastball isn’t what it used to be?
dmick89Quote Reply
Machado could be one of those guys who progresses suddenly, but he’s riding some luck right now.
joshQuote Reply
Just saw about the problem my avatar link caused. Whoops, my fault.
sitrickQuote Reply
Sitting through the rain delay at Wrigley right now… at least I have a Darwin Barney bobblehead!
MylesQuote Reply
Fuck FOX baseball and their exclusivity.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
this is the last season of it
GWQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
No big deal. It was easy to find so in a way that was good. I was thinking our site had been hacked and that could have taken hours.
For reference, there’s an upload box toward the bottom of the edit or my profile page where you can upload an avatar.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
It only bothers me a few times per year so it’s not really a big deal. I was looking forward to watching F7 tonight so it just pissed me off when I turned the tv on. I’m over it. It’s a good thing they’re done with it, though. 800% fewer complaints from Alvin next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/
At least I can be certain the Cubs won’t be taking Coty Blanchard in the 1st round.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bob Brenly.doing color for FOX.
rice in limboQuote Reply
Almost surprised the first base ump called Kennedy out on that bunt.
Robot umps please.
rice in limboQuote Reply
Damn Samardzija. 10 Ks in 5 innings. Wish I could watch this one.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sorry about your neck, MB. Rub some dirt on it and keep blogging The Right Way. No surgery or Tylenol.
gbts22Quote Reply
I don’t think either of these teams have any interest in playing anymore tonight.
gbts22Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Viagra
SVBQuote Reply
mb lacks the will to blog (TWTB)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
FOX showing the Bartman seat for literally no reason.
gbts22Quote Reply
fuck marmol. my drunk girlfriend is providing commentary thats hilarious. I should record this shit
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
When I went to bed it was 4-4 in the bottom of the 7th…..
joshQuote Reply
Adam Wainwright has walked 6 batters in 89 innings.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Marmol had 3 in .1 innings. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Not a good night for Marmol at all, but considering his previous six appearances I think he’d have to string together two or three of these in a row before they DFA him. As it is I doubt they release him until after the trade deadline.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Remind me why people go to baseball games again? And why Wrigley shouldn’t be blown up?
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I go to relax. I don’t know about the rest of you.
I can’t give you a good reason for the second query though. I think it has something to do with history and tradition and $$.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
So easy….
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-6-02-13.html
sitrickQuote Reply
It is right on to compare Castro to Dunston. Neither one of them has any discipline. They can/could both make the tough plays, but struggle with the routine plays. Let’s face it, neither one of them is/was a smart player. There is absolutely no thought process going on with Castro, it’s all reaction.
He still hasn’t figured out how to run like hell and trust your 1st and 3rd base coach. He puts the ball in play and then follows it himself. There have been so many times he either takes a chance and is thrown out because he doesn’t watch his coach or he is standing on first when he should be on second when a throw comes home. As a young player, I’d really like to see him hustle to first every time. He does the Aramis Ramirez jog down the first base line. @ dmick89:
It’s Not Easy Being a Cub FanQuote Reply
Sorry, I don’t care what dude’s “ISO,” was, or his “Intentional Walk Rate.”
He’s a guy who in seasons 20-22 hit a combined .297/.336/.425 for a OPS of .761. Yup, young SS’s like that are just floating around! But hey, at 23 years old, he’s maximized his potential.
I’m certainly not adverse to advanced metrics. RBI’s are certainly one of the more outdated and useless stats and Joe Morgan makes my Brain hurt when it comes to baseball. But not anymore than people who just can’t seem to actually watch the game and try WAY too hard to use whatever stat it is that validates their opinions.
The Shortstop position has changed over the last 10-15 years. A 23 year old SS with a .761 OPS as ages 20, 21 and 22 is a extreme rarity in today’s game. What constitutes a superstar in today’s game and the last 20 is very different.
EricQuote Reply