When I checked the schedule before my work trip to San Francisco two weeks ago, I was bummed that the A's weren't also in town to allow me to knock another stadium off my list. When I got there, I was glad that they weren't in town, as raw sewage backed up through the drains and flooded both clubhouses and the umpires' room following a day game on 16 Jun. Too bad this didn't happen before Moneyball was filmed. Or maybe it was a good thing. Now it is the Cubs turn to visit that stadium. Hopefully the players will get hazard pay.
Team Overviews
MLB ranks in parens
| Cubs | A's | |
| wRC+ | 89 (23rd) | 103 (8th) |
| BSR | -0.1 (14th) | 2.7 (11th) |
| UZR | 10.1 (8th) | 5.5 (14th) |
| DRS | 2 (16th) | -22 (26th) |
| SP FIP- | 94 (6th) | 105 (17th) |
| RP FIP- | 113 (27th) | 90 (10th) |
I kind of scratch my head at how the A's have succeeded for the last season and a half. They won 94 games last year in a division with a clear favorite (Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland), but had no particular aspect of their game that blew you away. Their offense, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense were above average but only just so. Maybe it was just that they didn't seem to have any real weaknesses. Also, the variance fairy, or whatever we're calling it these days. True to form, their shit didn't work in the playoffs and they lost to the Tigers, 3-2. They're on pace for the same record this year, and their numbers if anything look worse. Maybe they sent a bucket of fried chicken to the Diamondbacks' voodoo idol or something.
The Cubs have won three series in a row…so they got that going for them. Enjoy it while it lasts. Or don't.
Injury updates and roster moves
The Cubs put Ryan Sweeney on the 60 day DL following his breaking a rib last weekend in a collision with the wall. He's pretty much done for the year. Young Player Brian Bogusevic is taking over the majority of the CF duties until DeJesus gets back. Speaking of DeJesus, he's not expected to be back for another 2-3 weeks.
After trading Feldman and Clevenger, the Cubs called up Chris Rusin to take Feldman's turn in the rotation tonight, though it sounds like it will be Villanueva's spot the next time it comes around. Dave Sappelt was also called up to replace Sweeney. Pedro Strop and Matt Guerrier are expected to join the bullpen tomorrow. There should be a flurry of other intra-organization moves over the next few days as the rosters shake out. Maybe we'll start seeing some promotions in the minors soon too.
It looks like the A's didn't make any IFA moves today. Injury-wise, Coco Crisp is day to day with a back injury, while C John Jaso has been battling a hand injury that has made it unable for him to catch (he can still hit, however). Possible Thursday starter Jarrod Parker left his last start with a hamstring injury, and it's unclear if he'll be able to go this week. SP Brett Anderson has been out all year with a stress fracture in his ankle. It has healed much more poorly than expected, and he's still wearing a walking boot. It's not clear whether he'll need surgery, but either way it looks like he's not going to be pitching this year.
Mini-facepalm
GW gave great coverage of today's IFA signings, which was the main news today along with the trade of Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger to Baltimore for RP Pedro Strop and SP (probably future RP) Jake Arrieta. Brett and Sahadev had Keith Law on their podcast not long after the news broke, and they talked a lot of Breaking Bad. Also baseball, I guess. The Cubs also sent money (and international signing bonus money) to the Dodgers to get the Marmol deal done, getting another DFA'd washed up reliever in return in Guerrier. The Cubs got a little salary relief, but I don't know why they didn't just release Marmol.
Brett also recently did a mini-interview with BPro's prospect guy, Jason Parks, who likes the the Cubs system more than most evaluators.
When asked by Carrie Muskat on Sunday whether the Cubs would make a trade before the ASB, Theo said it was '50-50'. It could have gone either way (dying laughing).
Two triples for Junior Lake tonight.
Pitching Matchups
Tuesday: Chris Rusin, LHP (4.87) vs A.J. Griffin, RHP (3.56, 105, 4.28, 4.23), 9:05 PM CT
Rusin got seven starts with last year's team and was hit hard, never going more than five innings in any start. He's relatively inconsistent, which is kind of a good thing when you're a fringe-y pitcher like Rusin. If memory serves me correctly, he's had a run of solid starts with Iowa over the past few weeks.
Griffin got 15 starts with the A's last year, and posted a 3.06 ERA. His peripherals were more 4 FIP-ish, and his numbers this year have moved more in that direction. Griffin throws a lot of strikes and gets lots of fly balls. Luckily he makes half of his starts in his cavern-sewer of a home park.
Wednesday: Matt Garza, RHP (Probably) (3.83, 99, 3.74, 3.74) vs Zombie Bartolo Colon, RHP (2.79, 83, 3.95, 3.71), 9:05 PM CT
After a rocky stretch coming off his injury, Matt Garza has been busiily pitching himself onto a contender. He struck out 23 batters to 5 walks over 22 innings in his last three starts, allowing just two runs. Pretty much every start could be his last one for the Cubs, as it sounds like an extension is unfortunately not going to happen.
Colon was a solid pitcher for nearly a decade, posting 4-5 WAR in just about every season from his debut in 1997 to 2005. Then his career fell off a cliff with shoulder problems and he was out of baseball completely in 2010. Following an experimental shoulder surgery which may or may not have involved HgH, he joined the Yankees and had an improbably solid year (and also resulted in this hilarious mid-pitch pic that's on his wikipedia page). He's kept it up with the A's, and is having an even better year this season. He's never been a big strikeout guy since 2002 or so, and now he's pretty much turned himself into a contact pitcher inducing a fair number of ground balls.
Thursday: Travis Wood, LHP (2.85, 91, 4.40, 4.19) vs Jarrod Parker, RHP (4.11, 122, 4.61, 3.89), 3:05 PM CT
Parker had an amazing rookie year, posting a 3.47 ERA and 3.43 FIP in 29 starts. This year has not been so great. He had a lot of luck with HRs last year, which has regressed this year. Despite his poor peripherals, he's been helped by a .259 BABIP this year. He left his last start with a hamstring problem, and the A's are supposed to re-evaluate him today after he throws a bullpen.
The Travis Wood bandwagon keeps rolling along. He's still sitting at a .218 BABIP, and getting a lot of fly balls without letting many leave the yard. Aside from that the biggest difference is that his control has been much better this year. He'll regress, but he's already provided nearly 2 fWAR and 2.5 bWAR (not to mention ~0.5 WAR with his bat), which is already twice as much as I expected the Cubs to get out of him all season.
Comments
Gleyber = GLAY-bare rhymes with Mayfair. (Gly-bare would be spelled Glaiber in Spanish)
Jeesh. We are really scraping the pot if I’m providing Spanish help.
Not sure if this was posted before, but MLB drug policy apparently has cost someone his job. Sort of high profile too.
SVBQuote Reply
I’m kind of bummed about the timing of this series as well, as I was going to walk up to one or two of the games but have decided against it because BART isn’t running. (I am enjoying the unexpected week or more of working from home, however.)
So are folks really convinced that Torreyes should be comped to Pedroia or Altuve, or that he’s right around the corner from the bigs? I’m not sure I’d buy any of that. Sure, he’s been young at every level and he’s at AA, but he’s not really hit for the last two years (and when he did his line was fairly hollow). If he has a big second half this year I’ll feel differently about his chances, but without a solid year-plus of hitting very well at higher levels of the minors I have trouble slotting him onto a big league roster in the future with any kind of confidence.
In fairness, I’d feel this way about most of our prospects. I’ve always thought that if you plotted the probability of a minor-league player making the bigs, it would be a pretty steep J curve, and you wouldn’t really hit any significant probability of success until a guy shows extensive success at advanced levels. Torreyes simply isn’t there yet.
I like the idea of swapping out some low-ceiling organizational depth in exchange for upside at this point. The execution on finding the latter might wind up being not so great once the IFA signing period is up, but I can’t fault the approach.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Adolfo!!
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SVB:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpUK_gj7CTk
GBTSQuote Reply
Because this site can never have enough Bagpipes, or Game of Thrones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N11xS9Xq-Us
SVBQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/cubs-to-sign-eloy-jimenez.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Badler says nothing’s been signed yet.
BerseliusQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
i don’t think anyone is saying that, dave. i don’t know who would be a good comp for him. i definitely think you are selling him short, though. as far as i can tell, there are exactly two qualified 20-year olds putting up above average wRC+ numbers at AA anywhere, torreyes and domingo santana. (sano will get there, of course, when he gets more at-bats.) he’s leading the league by a mile in strikeout rate, and not in the way that brett jackson “leads” it. the hit tool? he has it.
GWQuote Reply
quick, keep the meatheads away from this guy
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
There are a lot of missed dinners in this kid’s future.
sitrickQuote Reply
Well, this showed up on my internet today:
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Someone out there is paying MONEY for this.
AkabariQuote Reply
@ GW:
Fair enough, and I know that nobody is throwing out those guys as legit comps. I guess I don’t get the gnashing of teeth from the last thread about this move, though. Torreyes has a lot of things going for him that most prospects don’t, and maybe it’s not fair to hold his relative lack of success over the past two years against him given his age. But the failure rate on guys at his level is still really high, even for a seemingly high-floor player, and given his distance from the bigs the Cubs probably have two or three guys in the system who are every bit as likely to stick in the middle infield as he is. If you have limited upside and no real track record of success at advanced levels, you’re not worth all that much.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Also, Bartolo Colon is having a hell of a year for a guy who looks like a frog.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I don’t want to speak for anyone else, but I’m just reflexively fighting off the barney/campana/”here’s another short guy who can’t hit” comps.
I also think that if someone made up a list of all the 16 year old pitchers that received top-level signing bonuses over the last 10 years, it would inject some sobriety into the debate.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Concepci-who?
AkabariQuote Reply
James Russell should probably not pitch to right handers anymore.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
Sure, and I think it’s no coincidence that the signing bonuses for IFAs are substantially lower than those for domestic draftees. There’s added risk because the guys are so young, and that’s baked into the price. I think that the initial analysis offered in the last thread is accurate, though — neither of these guys is likely to ever be heard from again. If that’s the case, you might as well go with upside as that has more value when it comes time to cash in your assets for actual major league talent. I don’t think you can fault this deal from the perspective of either the Cubs or Astros.
uncle daveQuote Reply
O9RBLAN
uncle daveQuote Reply
GW wrote:
This has been quite the difficult task. Here’s the best I could do
top 20 as of 2010-2011
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html
List of everything dating back to like 2000 (I’m assuming amatuer free agent from other countries are the same as IFA)
http://www.mlbprospectguide.com/p/international-signings.html
2004 class – Carlos Santana, Felix Doubront, Welington Castillo, Rafael Dolis, Juan Francisco, Johnny Cueto, Hector Rondon, Jhoulys Chacin, Kenley Jansen, Hector Noesi, Eduardo Nunez, Jose Tabata, Kendrys Morales, Wilson Ramos
2005 class – Neftali Feliz, Gerardo Parra, Jeanmar Gomez, Luis Valbuena, Wily Peralta, Ivan Nova, Ramiro Pena, Francisco Cervelli, Antonio Bastardo, Elvis Andrus
2006 class – Henderson Alvarez, EverCab, Freddy Galvis, Ruben Tejada, Salvador Perez, Kelvin herrera, Juan Nicasio, wilin Rosario, Starlin Castro, Jesus Montero (out of 57 players listed)
2007 class – Starling Marte, Jordany Valdespin, Oswaldo Arcia, Alexi Amarista, Jean Segura, Avisail Garcia, DD Gregorius, Julio Teheran (out of 65 listed)
2008 class – Hak-Ju Lee, Junichi Tazawa, Alfredo Aceves, Dayan Viciedo, Marcell Ozuna (out of 37)
2009 class – Jurickson Profar, Miguel Sano, Jose Iglesias
2010 class – Adeiny Hechavarria
I think it’s safe to assume that as time goes on, these players will end up having more success than previous years as more data/scouting effort is probably going to be made, but it looks like there are a few guys every year that turn into something useful. Spending 5MM and/or a low-ceiling AA prospect seems like it could be worth the gamble. That being said, we’re 5+ years away from even thinking about these guys effecting our MLB roster
exhoosier10Quote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/cubs-to-sign-eloy-jimenez.html
fang2415Quote Reply
@ exhoosier10:
Wow. Interesting list. Thanks for putting that up. Looks like a lot more position players than pitchers, which makes sense. But it also suggests that the point of view of interpreting the Torreyes deal as “getting slot money to execute the IFA strategy that included a class of X, Y, and Z” (ala sitrick) is probably a more accurate explanation than Torreyes for the 16-yr-old P.
SVBQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at Starlin Castro’s B-ref page host
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Also suggests that if the IFA’s don’t progress fairly quickly, then you may lose useful tools to R5, Minor league FA, or DFA/Roster rules (i.e. Hector Rondon, Valbuena)
SVBQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I tried to say it in the last thread a couple times and maybe I said it poorly, but here’s what I don’t like: trading a 20-year old, above average hitter already in AA for cash. There must be better uses of such players. Since the Cubs were in no danger of losing any draft picks, why not just go over the allowed bonus pool?
It seems odd to me that you’d enter the day thinking “if we need more space, let’s trade 20-year old Ronald Torreyes for cash.”
Like I said near the end of the last thread, this is a decision I don’t like much like giving a dollar to a stranger and hoping he’ll turn it into $1000 the next day. It’s probably no real loss.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
Instead of signing, the international free agent prospect rankings would probably be a better way to study this.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/cubs-sign-top-international-free-agent-eloy-jimenez.html
dmick89Quote Reply