It's safe to say that it's been a disappointing season for Starlin Castro. 82 games into the season, Castro's -1.4 fWAR makes Jeff Francoeur look like a valuable major league player (J.C. Bradbury nods approvingly). What is so different this year? MB posited to me a few weeks ago that pitchers have been pitching differently to him this year, and the numbers seem to bear it out.
Pitch mix
For the last two seasons, the pitch mix that Castro had seen was fairly steady – roughly 32% four seamers, 21% two-seamers/sinkers, 20% sliders, and 10% curveballs (plus smaller amounts of less usual pitches). This year he's seen a lot more fastballs, with four-seamers going up to 38% and two-seamers/sinkers to 25%, a swing of about 10 points. While Castro has had about average results against sinking pitches, he's been awful against fastballs. In 2011-2012, Castro posted a .311 BA and .472 SLG against four seamers. This year it's .223/.311, with zero HRs. It looks like it's mostly due to contact issues – previously in his career he fouled off 48% of pitches he swung at and whiffed on 14%. This year, his foul rate has climbed to 53% and he's whiffing 18% of the time, for a total of 71% of negative to negative-ish outcomes when he swings. On average, he's not facing 'better' fastballs: the average velocity he's seeing is right around 92, which was also the average last year.
Plate Discipline
Plate discipline-wise, there hasn't been any significant change. The Cubs coaching staff has been trying to change Castro's approach, getting him to take more pitches early in the count and from what quotes I remember there's been some progress there. It's not really showing up in the plate discipline numbers though (and certainly not in his slash line). His in-zone and out of zone swing percentages are right in line with his career averages, and pitchers are throwing about as many strikes as in the past as well. The only significant differences that I see are a dip in his in-zone contact percentage (not surprising, given the fastball numbers above) and a drop in first-pitch strikes thrown by opposing pitchers.
Batted Balls
Castro's batted ball percentages aren't too far off from what is normal for him. There's a slight dip in line drives and a rise in fly balls. His results on grounders and liners have been about the same, but he's seen a huge drop in performance on fly balls. Castro hit .300, .311, and .370 on fly balls the last three seasons. This year, it's .239. Maybe some balls aren't dropping in, I'm not sure. But that's a crazy low number. I can't remember if fangraphs includes popups with fly balls in those numbers, but even if they did his popup rate isn't particularly high this year.
Platoon numbers
Proportionally speaking, Castro has faced more left handed pitching than any other season of his career (26% of PAs are agaisnt lefties). However, as MO pointed out the other day, Castro has been strangely dreadful against lefties, posting a .213 wOBA when he was regularly posting an average of .360 or so earlier in his career. He's getting about 43% fastballs from LHP, and given his struggles against fastballs this year that could be part of the cause. He's hitting poorly against all types of pitches from lefties this year, while in the past he crushed lefy fastballs, sinkers, and changeups. He still has a .154 ISO against lefty changeups this year, but overall he's making poor contact.
Like other noted bloggers around the Cubs-o-sphere, I'm no hitting coach so I have no idea how Castro of the Cubs coaching staff should make these adjustments. But if I had to pick one thing, it would be whatever is up with his contact rate.
Comments
I haven’t watched as closely as others, but my impression has been that he’s not doing as well against fastballs because he’s mostly seeing them early in the count and taking them (often for strikes).
GWQuote Reply
they don’t, btw.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
The batted ball numbers vs fastballs are terrible too
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
which would be expected if he was only swinging at them when he was behind in the count.
GWQuote Reply
Now Brett is suggesting the Cubs might just use their INTL money next year to acquire prospects/players, like the opposite of what they did this year. That could work, as by 2014, hopefully they’ll be closer to buyer mode, even if its for dudes in AA. Plus it might also fit with their development plan. I’m down for that, as they’ll still have alot of money from having a crappy record this year.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I wish we had access to hit f/x data. In the past, Castro regularly hit the ball fairly hard, but this year I think he’s making much worse contact. That could be a result of always hitting behind in the count.
I listened to Dale Sveum recently and I didn’t get the impression the Cubs were trying to get him to take pitches early in the count. Sveum seemed to be saying he’s not being aggressiveness enough and he’s letting pitches go by early that he should be hitting.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bogusevic replaced by Borbon, so quickly and secretly that not even Gameday noticed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
TOOTBLANanza. A’s broadcasters ripping Starlin a new one right now.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Oh. Tight hammy. No int’l pool trade (dying laughing)
Sucks for Bogusevic though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Every other team’s announcers do that, too.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
To be fair to the A’s announcers, Castro deserved that. WTF
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I don’t know how that would work. It cost over three quarters of a million dollars for the Astros to get Torreyes. I didn’t like the deal and still don’t, but it seems fairly clear that you’re not going to get a really good prospect doing this. Right now the Cubs have the 6th worst record in baseball. The Marlins occupied that spot a year ago and had $3.4 million. I just don’t see that buying what the Cubs would be looking for.
I think we’re just looking into this too much. Right now the Cubs haven’t officially gone over their spending limit. They’ve reportedly agreed to terms with Jimenez, but it’s not being announced. Either that rumor is bogus (his agent floated that out there to get Jimenez more money) or the Cubs have agreed to the contract and are waiting to create additional pool space.
Other possibilities: the dollar figures for the Jimenez bonus are less than what has been reported (GW mentioned this yesterday), the Cubs know the world is ending soon and just thought they’d get fans excited for nothing one last time, the Cubs have lost their minds.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Dang, first he plagiarizes the print media, then he plagiarizes my comments in the last thread! Sheesh. (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Bet his comments were more lucid than mine though.
SVBQuote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply