Iowa Cubs 3 @ Salt Lake Bees 6
Mike Olt went 0-4. Jae-Hoon Ha went 2-3 with a walk. No one else played so don't even look. I seriously considered linking that score to a rick roll.
Justin Grimm had a pretty forgettable 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 SO start. Casey Coleman was dicey in his scoreless frame, but then Marcus Hatley allowed 4 runs in 0.2 innings. Ick. Marcos Mateo, newly promoted, pitched 1.1 scoreless.
Birmingham Barons 2 @ Tennessee Smokies 3
Javier Baez did everything Javier Baez does. He went 1-3 with a HR, a walk, and 2 strikeouts. TTO%: 100. Of course, he also committed an error. Christian Villanueva had a double as did Chad Noble.
Matt Loosen is back in Tennessee and he had a decent outing. Jeffry Antigua blew the save but received the win, with 2.2 scoreless innings (he allowed one of a bases-loaded inheritance to score). Frank Batista had the save.
Daytona Cubs 2 @ Fort Myers Miracle 1
Anthony Giansanti played 1B AGAIN. I don't get it. He went 3-4 with a double. Dustin Geiger hit a home run, and Pin-Chieh Chen was 3-3 pinch hitting and playing RF. Chadd Krist had a pair of singles. The Cubs had 12 hits but only sent 2 home.
Ivan Pineyro, a fairly intriguing prospect, went 6 dominant innings, allowing 3 baserunners and striking out 7. Austin Reed blew the save but allowed a run in 2 innings, not awful. Frank of the Valley allowed 2 hits in his frame, but neither scored.
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers 3 @ Kane County Cougars 6
Gioskar Amaya was 2-4 with a double. Albert Almora walked, as did Dan Vogelbach (he also had a hit and 2 runs). Jeimer Candelario had 2 hits, as did Rock Shoulders. They both homered, but Shoulders walked also.
Felix Pena had a decent start. 7 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs (1 earned), 3 walks, 1 strikeout. Sheldon McDonald and Michael Hamman each had a scoreless inning.
Boise Hawks 4 @ Everett AquaSox 7
Kris Bryant was 1-4 with a pair of K's. The real damage was a 2-run blast by Yasiel Balaguert, who also had a single and another RBI. Jacob Rogers singled twice and walked. Kevin Encarnacion had a trio of singles.
Paul Blackburn allowed 2 runs in as many innings. Duane Underwood allowed 4 in as many innings, and Masek allowed 1 in 2 innings. Masek's run was unearned (on his own missed catch); he also fanned 5.
DSL Nationals 0 @ DSL Cubs 5
VSL Cubs 6 @ VSL Mariners 8
AZL Giants 1 @ AZL Cubs 2
I'll give you three guesses who started this game.
Comments
Wow. Baez is 1 HR off the minor league lead as a 20-yo SS playing at A+ and AA.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
I think Baez is legit. His BB rate still sucks, but it has improved as he’s moved up the ladder, and he’s obviously still crushing the ball.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
My concern is he still has Brandon Wood as a good (great?) comp, and that will remain the case until his plate discipline numbers improve.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
Olt has an impressive -42 wRC+ with iowa. Only 33 PA so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Ya I wasn’t saying sign all 3 of Choo, Ellsbury, and Cano. Just one of them along with McCann and a RP/CL.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I wouldn’t be surprised if they did that. I do think they’ll go out and do something like that. Could be a trade too.
dmick89Quote Reply
shawndgoldman wrote:
It’s funny you mention this. A buddy of mine said same thing yesterday and i threw up.
Not worried.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Did Wood have this kind of power at this age and level? Also, did he play SS or 3B? I don’t remember that much about him.
As far as this offseason, I think the good thing about where the Cubs are with their MLB roster is that they’re likely to simply add the most wins at the most value, regardless of position. Sure certain areas are less likely to be addressed (namely 1B and SS), but otherwise, they could stand to improve on any area- SP, RP, OF, IF or C. Unless their assessment of Castillo has changed, I doubt they go for McCann unless they feel they can get excellent value there.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Yep http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood–002ric
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s a really good comp
dmick89Quote Reply
Castillo is a fairly nice player, but he’s not so good that you’d avoid signing Brian McCann. True, McCann is going to be 30 next year, so it’s not completely doom and gloom; he played over 120 games every year from 2006 to 2012 so you’d hope and think that he should play 110/120 games for you. He’s a lefty bat, so you could platoon him with Castillo also (with a harsh split: 866 OPS RHP, 747 OPS LHP against the 696 OPS RHP, 803 OPS LHP platoon of Welington). That said, McCann is just a year removed from a sub-.700 season.
MylesQuote Reply
I don’t see Cano signing for anything under 7 years and $150 million. He’ll be 31 next year and I’m sure looking for that huge payday. Cano will probably age a lot better than Pujols and Fielder but that’s a lot of money on the back end. If I’m the Cubs, I’d look to see what it would take to sign Utley on a 3 year, Choo on a 4 year, MCann on a 4 year, a reliever and maybe kick the tires on Lincecum.
MuckerQuote Reply
Pat said that henderson guy closing for the Crew was in the Cubs system in the 2006-2009 time frame. I have no memory of him, which is weird, because I was paying attention more closely then.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
To me, what you just described is “Plan A” for the Cubs if they want to compete in 2014.
McCann, even if he doesn’t age tremendously well, could still be useful as the bulk-PA side of an expensive catcher platoon. Utley is a perfect fit if you can sign him to a short-to-medium term deal. Lincecum is worth rolling the dice on, particularly given the Cubs’ coaching success with pitchers the last couple of years.
The other thing to keep in mind here is the large amount of budget the Cubs have at their disposal. This means that can pay guys more $/year on shorter-term deals that work for both the team and the player. I don’t mind spending up to their salary limits if the deals are short-term.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Rule 5 pick by the Cubs. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood–002ric
dmick89Quote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
I don’t either. I would rather the Cubs get Cano but I just don’t think Cano will take 5 years $130 over let’s say 7 years at $180. Either way, I’m excited to see what happens over the winter.
MuckerQuote Reply
baez’s career iso is now at .268. some other really young, really powerful guys that came up while researching my article a few weeks ago:
Name (BB%, K%, ISO)
Through Age 20:
Stanton (12, 27, .295)
Manny Ramirez (13, 19, .279)
Baez (6, 24, .268)
Chris Davis (8, 23, .244)
Jay Bruce (9, 23, .244)
Wood (8, 22, .243)
Dopirak (8, 23, .237)
Karim Garcia (7, 21, .229)
A few others through age 21:
Jonny Gomes (15, 29, .299)
Russell Branyan (12, 31, .294)
Chris Davis (7, 26, .286)
Hee-Sop (13, 21, .271)
Chris Carter (11, 24, .257)
GWQuote Reply
Can they fit all this?
The Cubs have $49M committed in 2014. If they have a budget of $110M, that leaves ~$60M to play with. McCann, Choo, and Utley are all 4-ish WAR players, based on updated projections for the year. Offer them both 3-yr/$70M contracts (something like 20/25/25). That would leave little or no room for spending on the rotation, but you likely don’t get all three of those guys. Assuming you don’t you’d have $20M to spend on Lincecum and a bullpen arm. Timmy hasn’t had a year of 4+ WAR since 2009 (wow), and is projected to be about a 2-WAR player this year. A 1-year deal at $15M might get him, and you’d have $5M left for the bullpen.
C: McCann/Castillo
1B: Rizzo
2B: Utley (or Barney)
SS: Castro
3B: Olt/Valbuena
LF: Lake (or Choo)
CF: DeJesus
RF: Schierholtz (or Schierholtz/Lake)
SP: F7/Lincecum/Jackson/Wood/Arrieta-Grimm-Villanueava
BP: Still needs work
That’s starting to look like a competitive ballclub. This plan constrains you quite a bit for the following two FA periods, but not much thereafter. But the 2015-2016 years are when you’re planning to get an influx of talent from the minors, so it might not be as critical by then. Once you know what you have from the crop of kids, you can then spend on the FA market again.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
The main reason I don’t like the idea of pursuing Cano is the Cubs have way too many infielders coming up through the system. Sure, you could move Cano to a corner OF spot… but that’s also the “backup plan” for a lot of the kids. I don’t mind a long-term deal, but if you’re going to pursue one it should be at a position where you don’t expect some help for a while.
The only position where I’d be comfortable pursuing a longer-term deal would be C or SP. But even in that case there aren’t any good potions in this year’s FA class at either position – not for long term deals anyways. Plus, tthere’s injury/regression risk at both those positions.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
CF would be an option, too… but again there aren’t great long-term options there, either.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
I thought about the middle infield prospects the Cubs have but then I thought none of them would be better than Cano and if they are, then that’s a great problem to have. If Cano had to move, I’m wondering if he couldn’t move to 3B? He has the arm for it.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Albert Almora is the long-term option in CF. I don’t think they’re going to spend more than 1 big FA signing this offseason, and I think they definitely will if they finish in the bottom 10 because the pick is protected. I bet they end up with a few more of the Feldman, Baker, DeJesus type signings who they can flip if they aren’t in contention again, but who might give them a chance to contend for a wild card.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I agree about Almora and I’m thinking if the Cubs do sign Choo or Ellsbury, it’ll be until Almora, Soler and/or Bryant are ready. I don’t know if Bryant is the future at 3B or if they plan on moving him to corner OF but I think an OF of Choo/Ellsbury, Lake/other prospect, Schierholtz/DeJesus is pretty decent until the above mention break camp. Then you can move Choo/Ellsbury to LF, Almora to CF and Soler/Bryant to RF. I realize the odds of all these guys making the team and being regulars is pretty slim but this would be an ideal situation I would imagine.
MuckerQuote Reply
Just got a Team Stream from Bleacher Report and they have the Cubs as the #2 system after the deadline. Twins #1 and Cardinals #3.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Huh. I thought he was a corner OF’er. Shows how much I’ve been paying attention lately.
My main point is they should try to get 1 or 2 4-ish WAR guys that fill a short-term need, but don’t need long-term contracts. That’s why I like Choo, Utley, and McCann over Cano.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
It’s not so much that I worry about Cano “blocking” the infielders… it’s more that I’d rather focus on the positions we *know* there isn’t a chance at near-term help. So of the three holes I’d probably prioritize C first, then CF, then 2B. There’s nothing at all on the horizon at C, and even with Almora pencilled in at CF that’s a single point of failure… as opposed to 2B where you have Castro/Baez/Lake/Alcantara/Watkins as options. Odds just seem better 2B will be filled than CF.
I’d go SP before CF if there were more interesting options out there.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
My only issue with the Wood comp is that Wood’s walk numbers decreased at every level he played at. Baez’s have gone up.
I know Prospects Will Break Your Heart, but I can’t help believing this kid is gonna be something really, really special.
sitrick2Quote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
No, those are good points and I never really thought of that. It’s amazing how much the system has changed since they drafted Baez. There are so many potential impact bats in the system.
MuckerQuote Reply
Speaking of which, Javy’s up to an 8.7% BB rate with 16 PAs left before the 120 PA stabilization benchmark.
EDIT: He also doesn’t have a single IBB or HBP at AA. Huh.
sitrick2Quote Reply
The problem with saying “Player X is the future at Position Y” is that propsects will always break your heart. Castro is the future at SS because HE’S THERE RIGHT NOW. Almora is hopefully the future at CF, but I’d probably lay 2:1 odds that he never plays a total of 162 games there for the Cubs. It just doesn’t always work out like that, or even usually work out like that.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I agree with this for the most part, though I think they may try to make a play for guys at a higher price point than the $4-6MM we’ve seen over the past couple of years as long as they come in on two or three year deals. They have the payroll space, but I think they’ll be (rightly) reluctant to sign too many guys to long-term deals all at once so as to avoid the deadweight issues they’ve had over the past couple of years. If you spread those guys out more evenly, maybe one every couple of years or so, you shouldn’t have more than one or maybe two Sorianoesque back ends on the books at any given time but will still be able to grab impact free agents. I think that would be a decent outcome.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I actually want to take a step back from my previous statement, I just looked at the past 20 years of the BA #33 pick and they do average 7.71 career WAR, with 5 of the 20 having 14.9 WAR or more. Still, for every Andrew McCutchen there is a Jeff Clement and an Angel Villalona
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Yep. This is also part of the reason why they should be reluctant to wait until they have a lot of young talent at the ML level to start spending. Over the past couple of years, I think they’ve been looking to tank to help build up the system because they knew they would not have sufficient flexibility to add enough talent to compete. Now that they have at least some sort of base made of cheap talent (the kids plus reasonably cheap vets like DeJesus and Schierholtz) to go along with payroll space, I think they’ll start adding guys who will help them win in the short term.
Flexibility is the key here. You can’t count on the kids to produce, but you don’t want to block those who do pan out. That’s where all of these short-term deals come in handy, I think.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Agreed. Shin-Soo Choo (for example: he’s the player I want the absolute most) isn’t blocking anyone, because no one is pounding down the door. If Soler ever gets here, it’s in a few years, and you deal with it then.
MylesQuote Reply
@ sitrick2:
I would think his walk rate would go up as pitchers get more afraid of him (I can’t believe they aren’t already)
WaLiQuote Reply
From now on, please refer to Shin-Soo Choo by his proper nickname: “The Seoul Train”
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
And a quick/dirty Choo breakdown:
31 next year, so a 4 year deal would run through his age-34 season. He’s on pace for 4.3 WAR this year, but let’s call it 4 WAR and say 3.5/3/2.5/2 for the rest of his contract. However, he’s playing LF for us, and his defense (which is bad) saps a lot of his value at CF, where he plays, so I’d argue we can place it really at 3.7/3.2/2.7/2.2.
If a win is worth 5.5, and we inflate at 5%, we get values of 20.4/18.5/16.4/14, or an AAV of 17.3. If you think 3.5/3/2.5/2 is better, it’s a 16.117 AAV. If we do a 10% discount, we get an AAV of 14.5 or so, and a 13/14/15/16 seems incredibly reasonable and probably close to what Choo is likely to get. The surplus value we get out of the deal (we have no LF at the moment unless you are a Lake believer) is likely to exceed our other competitors, also.
I’d be very comfortable with the Cubs offering Choo something like 4/64 (though I’d be hesitant to go any higher than that). That’s a 16 AAV for a player that is one of only a few on the market worth anything and that won’t be awful at the end of the contract. He’s also a high-OBP, mid-SLG type, which is exactly what we need.
MylesQuote Reply
sitrick2 wrote:
No they didn’t. His breakout was in the Cal League, and he raised his walk rate the next season in AA (about 2%). Came back down a percent or so the season after that in AAA.
The big difference is that Wood’s breakout came in the hitter’s paradise Cal League, while baez has put up prodigious power stats in the Midwest League and FSL so far.
GWQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Barely related, but an excuse to post my favorite thing on the whole internet:
http://youtu.be/AsVyPAVBzRQ
uncle daveQuote Reply
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
He’s from Pusan, be more sensitive jeez
I like that nickname
MylesQuote Reply
@ sitrick2:
also, I’d be nervous about applying those baselines to minor league numbers.
GWQuote Reply
To me the biggest question isn’t related to position players; between prospects, short-term platoon FA:s who offer good value, and actual FA’s with bigger contracts, I feel pretty confident that the Cubs are going to be able to field a decent roster next year, and even better in the years after. I’m really wondering where they’re going to get pitchers, and I generally expect them to make some trades this offseason, whether “buying” type deals or “selling” type deals.
NateQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
THIS.
To be clear, what I was discussing above was assuming “The Plan” is to compete in 2014. But I don’t think that is or should be “The Plan.” A more likely, more sane approach would be to pursue one medium-to-high cost player on a relatively short (2-4 year) contract. Preferably, you get that player at the position least likely to block a prospect. Then fill in with lower-tier, even shorter-term signings. That doesn’t make you an immediate competitor in 2014, but if a few things break your way you would be one. More importantly, it sets you up to compete in 2015 and doesn’t reduce your flexibility in 2016 onwards, when the rebuilding plan is in high gear.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ GW:
FWLIW, Wood was also a year older at each stop. Dunno if that matters much if Baez is truly not being challenged enough by his competition, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I like that. The reason I prefer McCann is if Choo ends up in a corner OF slot, that’s also where Olt/Bryant/Lake/Baez go if they can hit but can’t field. (I suppose this isn’t likely with Olt… but if he can hit it makes the others more likely to end up in LF/RF.)
The issue with McCann is whether he can keep playing C. If he can’t he’s not worth much to the Cubs. (He couldn’t play a credible corner OF could he?) Anyone know the likelihood of him sticking behind the plate for 3-4 years?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Wood also saw time in AAA at 20, and the bigs at 22.
In the larger view, I don’t think it’s something to be too worried about. Plenty to worry about with Baez without projecting Wood’s failures onto him.
GWQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
This is the BIG question with Baez, IMO. With his high K rate and HR rate, pitchers will eventually learn to stop throwing it near the plate. As that happens, one would hope his BB rates go up. What’s encouraging is that his BB rate went up as he spent more time in A+, and it’s going up over time in AA. That’s a good sign.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Yep, and that sort of thinking is largely consistent with the way Theo ran the Red Sox. He let a decent number of established players (and even some guys who were still at or near their prime years) walk from good teams because he had alternatives. I’m pretty confident that there’s a plan in place, and that it will eventually work.
It’s an odd position to be in as a Cubs fan. (Or a Bears fan, or…)
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ GW:
Sometimes, a comp is just a comp.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
completely agree here, which is why I think it will be Ellsbury and not Choo if they sign a big FA this year. He can man center while they try out the guys coming up in the corners.
GWQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
yep. and if baez wasn’t showing this much power, he would have other comps that had actually succeeded in the bigs.
the thing that makes him unique is the complete lack of walks in combination with the power. hopefully that’s changing.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Whoops, misread fangraphs, they only had AA and AAA listed. I’m an idiot.
sitrick2Quote Reply
@ sitrick2:
yeah, it happens. fangraphs isn’t always complete, particularly with guys who have played in the bigs. b-ref is about as good as it gets, but they don’t give you the nice per PA stats, and they omit the fall and winter leagues.
GWQuote Reply
Re: the baselines, does walk rate in the minors not stabilize after the same number of plate appearances at the MLB level? Interesting. I suppose that makes sense but also confuses me.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
i’m not sure, but I doubt it. those baselines were determined from mlb stats. there’s a lot more variability in terms of player movement in the minors. in baez’s case, he’s switched to a different league with different ballparks and a completely different set of pitchers, many of whom he’s taken deep in the past few weeks. at the minimum, you would want a park/league adjustment. good to see it going up, but i would tread lightly in terms of pronouncing confidence in what’s a real trend, and what’s noise.
GWQuote Reply
For the first time in awhile, it was pretty cool to read all your comments. We haven’t had a decent discussion like this in (seems like) months.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ GW:
If I had any idea how to do it, this would make me want to do a big study about minor league walk rates by league and level and track which players saw their walk rates actually increase as they moved up the ranks, and how that correlated to their major league approach. Interesting stuff to think about.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Myles:
His rest of season average projection on fangraphs is 1.1 WAR over 209 PA. That’s 3.15 over 600. Drop that to 3 next year (2.5, 2.0, 1.5 after that) and you get 4 years and $48.25 million (including the 10% discount teams get on 3+ year deals and longer). That includes 7.5% inflation and a beginning $5.5 million per win.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Of those who saw an increase, we can be pretty sure that they performed better at the MLB level than those who did not. If the improvement was real, and I agree with GW that it’s awfully hard to know for sure if it is. I’m glad it’s better than it was in High A, but I’m very reluctant to say he’s improved at it. There could be a number of reasons why it’s higher and has nothing to do with his talent level. Especially in this small a sample.
Even if it did normalize at 120 PA, we’d still have to regress his current rate by 50% with another rate. What rate would we use? League average? Baez’s career average? A combination of both, probably, but since these rates are done in different leagues and different ages, which ones deserve more weight? Is walk rate over 120 PA at AA the same as A+ in the same amount of playing time?
I don’t think an 8% walk rate in AA changes his overall forecast. This is still a guy who could be a huge asset to the Cubs or he could completely collapse. This is true of all prospects, but probably more so of someone whose swing and miss approach is as drastic as Baez’s is.
Based on what we know of prospects, I’m going to be a lot more surprised if he becomes that huge asset. Players rarely reach the potential that we see in them. Even if successful, Baez probably won’t be a superstar.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
That’s because Shawn has been around and he keeps us on point.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
Better change it from Seoul Train to Pusan Wagon then
BerseliusQuote Reply
Nate wrote:
Yeah, I think the Cubs go after a pretty good pitcher by trading a prospect or two.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
note to IPL: a dumber version of Ryno has hijacked your twitter account.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply