I thought it was about time to take a more thorough look at the 2014 Cubs and eventually discuss ways in which they could contend. The first thing to look at is how much money the Cubs may have to spend, which means we need to know how much money they currently have on the books for 2014.
Cots Contracts at Baseball Prospectus makes this easy.
| Player | Salary |
| Alfonso Soriano | $14,000,000 |
| Edwin Jackson | $13,000,000 |
| Starlin Castro | $5,857,143 |
| Carlos Villanueva | $5,000,000 |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | $4,500,000 |
| Jorge Soler | $2,666,667 |
| Anthony Rizzo | $1,535,714 |
| David DeJesus | $1,500,000 |
| Gerardo Concepcion | $1,200,000 |
| Total | $49,259,524 |
Not included in this list are arbitration eligible players or David DeJesus whose $6.5 million option will surely be picked up. The Cubs currently have five players who are. James Russell will earn the last of the three while Nate Schierholtz can expect a modest raise from his 2013 salary of $2.25 million. Darwin Barney and Travis Wood are eligible for the first time. Jeff Samardzija earned $2.64 million in 2013 and has had a pretty good year. The Cubs and Samardzija appear to be interested in working out a long-term contract this offseason.
If no extension is worked out, Samardzija can probably expect a salary in the $5 million range. Schierholtz can probably anticipate earning $3 million and James Russell about $1.5 million. Barney and Wood are a bit more difficult. There's no doubt that Barney is an offensive black hole, but there's also no doubt that the guy can play exceptional defense.
Wood has been about average if you look at WARP and above average if you look at fWAR. He was the team's only all-star, but I'm guessing the Cubs work something out with him in the $2 million range. I'd be surprised if the Cubs are willing to pay Barney anything over $1 million.
The total for arbibtration eligible players can probably be expected to be about $13 million.
Also not included are any players who are not yet eligible for arbitration. These players earn $500,000. Even if you fill out the rest of the roster with these players, that would add about $6 million in salary. That, along with the $13 million (arbitration eligible), $6.5 million for DeJesus and $49.3 million (contracts) takes the Cubs payroll up to $74.7 million.
The payroll entering this season was just a bit over $107 million. We don't know what kind of budget the Cubs will have for next year, but we can probably bet it's not going to exceed that. The payroll has been going down since the Tribune sold the team, but I think we can all agree the Cubs needed to rebuild in some way, which means a lower payroll.
The Ricketts' family has gotten approval from the city to renovate Wrigley and that will have to have some sort of impact on the payroll in future years. I would expect in the next two to three years that we see the payroll hover right around $100 million and that impact beyond that will likely be positive.
The Cubs should have at least $25-35 million to work with this offseason. That's not a tremendous amount of money these days, but the Cubs should be able to make some improvements.
Comments
I believe Russell is second-year arb eligible next year. I also believe DeJesus has a $6.5MM option with a buyout if you want to just assume the buyout.
But that stuff is negligible, the Cubs should have a bunch of financial flexibility. It doesn’t make sense to just sign Cano though, they’d have to sign everyone. Just but a contender while continuing to cultivate the farm. Or else pass on Cano and pick up some non-QO guys.
rice in limboQuote Reply
@ rice in limbo:
You’re right. Shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Updated. Thanks RC. That drops the available money down to around $25-35 million. Not a whole lot when you think about it.
dmick89Quote Reply
If I’m connecting the dots right, I think you’re missing something in your analysis here. Sure, the club is going to see a decrease in MLB payroll during rebuilding, but shouldn’t you mention something about the dramatic increase in expenses elsewhere? If you add spending on the FO staff, expansions in Latin America and the scouting staff that goes with it, IFA bonus spending, $ spent on the Mesa expansion, and the impending expenditures on Wrigley, there has been a huge increase on personnel and facilities. I can’t imagine Thoyer or Ricketts and his biz managers look at MLB payroll spending in a vacuum, why should you?
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
I’m not missing it. It’s not relevant to what I wrote. I was in no way criticizing Ricketts or the front office for lowering payroll. I fail to see how this is something here. I didn’t say that overall spending has decreased. I don’t think it has, but relative to average, it may have.
In 2010 the Cubs payroll was significantly higher than league average, but is now just average. I wouldn’t know exactly how much they’ve spent so it isn’t really something worth exploring. IMO
dmick89Quote Reply
I think people should stop bringing up Cano, because that has a 0.00% chance of happening. Signing players in their 30s to megadeals is not the MO of this front office. Not to mention that they’re going to need to find ABs for Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, and/or Watkins and Lake in the IF in the next few years. Cano would be investing probably $120 million in what should be an area of positional depth and low cost for the next 5-7 years.
JQuote Reply
I see the Theo/Jed going after guys like Feldman again but none of the big names as they are either too old or will command close to 9 figures. Not exactly sure whom that would be at this point but I would imagine if they decide to spend the full 25-35M it’ll be acquiring a few guys about to be paid in Arb more than their club is willing/able to pay.
JManQuote Reply
@ J:
THIS. Not only is it not their MO (Carl Crawford notwithstanding), it just doesn’t make sense for Cano or for the Cubs for all the reasons you mentioned. IF depth is something the Cubs have a plethora of…they have plenty of areas of need (all other areas?) they can fill with free agency $.
srbutch5Quote Reply
I just find it very hard to believe the is FO will sign a FA to a mega deal. I know it wasn’t this FO or this owner, but Soriano was the only player to ever receive such a deal as a FA. (I don’t count ARam, Big Z or DLee since they were current Cubs) Not that Soriano wasn’t productive, but they see how that much money later on in the contract really limit the flexibility of the FO. I think they will add a few pieces (like EJax) in the mid-range for value over the mega superstar. Hopefully, the system will produce those stars and they can be locked up early like the league seems to be trending.
Horse —-> Beaten
srbutch5Quote Reply
Daiskuke cost the Sox over $100 million. So did Adrian Gonzalez. John Lackey was over $80 million.
We’ve got at least 4 examples of Theo spending big on a player in the past. I’m fairly certain we’ll see it again. I don’t think it would be very smart of any GM to just take himself out of play for the best free agents because he doesn’t want to spend that much.
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/bears/chicago-bears-preseason-depth-chart.html
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
So we’ve seen him spend more than a few times. Those signings aren’t exactly glowing examples of why you should spend big money on a guy in the middle of his prime or on the tail end of it.
We’ve talked in recent years that the Cubs will have to sign a big free agent or two to get this rebuild sped up…and it just hasn’t happened. Maybe I’m just weighting the recent past too much and not seeing the big picture of this team actually getting close to contending where spending big will have it’s rewards.
srbutch5Quote Reply
I have to think that Schierholts is going to cost more than 3 million next year. In arbitration things like HR and XBH pay extraordinarily well. The arbitrator isn’t going to see a platoon guy, he’s going to see 20 HR, 30 2b, and a .265 average, which looks like plenty of corner outfielders who make 10-15 per year.
MickQuote Reply
@ Mick:
Salaries in arbitration are depressed and he is a platoon guy. He’s had a good season for sure, but he’ll have about 400 plate appearances, which isn’t a full season. If he had 650 I’d agree, but I just don’t see him getting anything over $4 million. Just my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
The free agents that could make some sense to me in approximate order of some mix of reality and fantasy would be:
1. Shin-Soo Choo: Can we say OBP? I hear Jed and Theo are big on that. His glove is a liability and I’m not sure he’d be seen as an upgrade worth the spend over Schierholtz/DeJesus.
2. Brian McCann: Top ten in slugging, after seeing Wellington Castillo hit in the #4 spot the other day I think I almost cried. This isn’t really about needing a Catcher so much as it is about wanting a legit bat for the middle of the order.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury: He’s not quite what he was in 2011, but dude can play. Haven’t heard what the market for him is going to be like or if the Red Sox are going to extend him.
4. Jamey Carroll: C’mon who doesn’t want a guy who boasts a 0.00 ERA, and 0.00 WHIP out of the ‘pen — I think he could be an emergency infielder too, but was his MLB debut before or after Sveum??? Would that create some friction in the hierarchy of things???
5. Cano – To hell with the organizational depth and tight purse strings. Throw a boatload of cash at him, use that organizational depth to add pieces at the deadline and go for it. I think I heard Theo say something like “I’ve got 99 plans for free agency, but Jay-Z’s client ain’t one”
Let’s play make believe and say they sign McCann and Choo, you could conjure up an opening day roster that can compete if, I mean big IF, IF, IF all of this: Olt can hit MLB pitching, Rizzo takes another step forward, Junior Lake can sustain his hitting, Castro takes a huge step forward (I think <20 errors, BA back around .300, maybe 15 HRs might be possible), Arrieta or Grimm turns out to be a respectable #3 or #4, Shark takes a step forward, Travis Wood doesn't regress, was to happen.
Choo made $7.4 this year and McCann $12, I doubt both would fit in a $100 million budget for 2014 although budgeting for 2015 is going to be a bit easier with Soriano's contract finally coming off the books. I severely doubt they would sign both or either of these guys, but my take is that we're flush with average to mediocre players and a couple of legit bats is what would be needed to make this team competitive immediately, then maybe a little of the organizational depth could be traded off to pick up a starter to improve the rotation.
The rational take on all of that is, there's always 2015 and hopefully a couple of in-house, young bats are producing.
JasonQuote Reply
You also missed Valbuena, who I can’t see being non-tendered. He won’t make more than a million or so though i bet
AndrewQuote Reply