2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Arodys Vizcaino

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by Sitrick25 Comments

Arodys Vizcaino came into pro ball as a Yankees J2 signing in 2007 out of the Dominican Republic. Nobody seems to have his signing bonus listed anywhere, so let's assume it was a pittance. He went straight to the Gulf Coast League in 2008 and began moving up the prospect ranks, finishing the 2009 season as the Yankees' third best prospect according to BA, wielding monster velocity on his fastball and a devastating curveball. He was sent to the Braves in December of 2009 in a trade that sent him, Melky Cabrera, and Mike Dunn to Atlanta in exchange for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. He continued as he always had, dominating the Sally League before getting promoted to the Braves' Carolina League affiliate.

It was after a short stint in the Carolina League that Vizcaino's injury woes first began to turn up, suffering a partial tear of an elbow ligament after just three starts and getting shut down for the remainder of the 2010 season. He returned in 2011 after a winter of rehabbing, and went back to beating up minor league foes and racing to the big leagues, posting a 3.06 ERA with 100 Ks in 97 innings across high-A, AA, and AAA ball. He got his first taste of the big leagues in August of that season, appearing in 17 games out of the Braves' bullpen and posting a 4.67 ERA while striking out a batter an inning.

In March of 2012, Vizcaino's torn elbow ligament finally gave out, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. He was traded to the Cubs in the Paul Maholm deal while still on the disabled list, and, due to setbacks in his recovery, has yet to throw a pitch for any level of the Cubs organization at this point.

Performance

Nothing to see here.
 

Scouting

Here's what BA had to say before the year began:

Before he got hurt, Vizcaino was one of baseball's top pitching prospects. He had a 93-95 mph fastball that topped out at 97, and it might be his second-best pitch. The only negative about his sharp curveball was that he threw it too much. Refining his changeup and improving his fastball command were on his to-do list. Assuming Vizcaino regains full health, the biggest question will be his future role. Chicago sees a potential No. 2 starter while his detractors think his track record indicates that he won't hold up in a rotation, even if his mechanics are fine. At worst, the Cubs think they have a closer.

The setbacks this season certainly haven't helped his projections any, and have given added volume to voices outside the organization that see his future in the bullpen. The Cubs are sending Vizcaino to the Arizona Fall League in order to get him facing hitters and, hopefully, prepare him to be a contributer in some way to the 2014 club. Fastball command has been a weakness for him up to this point, and the Tommy John recovery won't help it any in the short-term; as such, the walk totals may not be pretty as he gets re-acquainted with getting outs. The biggest question, though, remains how close Arodys can come to his pre-surgery form on what has been a difficult, setback-filled road back to pitching.

Outlook

Assuming he gets a decent workload, Vizcaino's AFL performance should provide a good deal of insight as to what to expect from him in 2014. If the velocity is down, the curveball lousy, and his elbow balky, Vizcaino could spend next season going the way of Ryan Madson. If the signs are more encouraging, one would think the logical step for next season would be to start with Vizcaino in the bullpen and let him get some major league innings under his belt. If he performs well, stays healthy, and showcases the electric stuff he had pre-injury, perhaps he would be an intriguing rotation candidate for 2015 and beyond. Until then, let him find his footing and prove he can be successful and get outs.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

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  3. Author
    sitrick

    @ GBTS:
    Realistically I think the only thing that keeps him out of the bullpen permanently is if he does it for a year or two, proves he can stay healthy, and still really wants/asks to be a starter.

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  6. Omar Little

    I know you’re all interested, so I’ll relay this tidbit: Texas AD Deloss Dodds is moving into a new role after this season. Basically, new AD means new coach. The Mack Brown farewell tour has begun.

    [img]http://media.twirlit.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/will-smith-celebration-gif.gif[/img]

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  10. Edwin

    When evaluating past trades, is it useful to try and discount future WAR, similar to time value of money calculations?

    For example, with the Cubs Rich Harden trade, they traded away Josh Donaldson, who is having a pretty great year this year. But the Cubs got 2.1 WAR from Harden in 2008, and 1.9 WAR in 2009. The A’s didn’t get positive WAR from Donaldson until 2012.

    Is it fair to say the Cubs “won” the trade with Oakland, or does the fact that 5 years later Donaldson is looking like an MVP candidate mean that now Oakland “won” the trade?

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  13. Suburban kid

    @ Edwin:
    Meanwhile, Geovany Soto and Henry Blanco are on the bench.

    Paul Bako is selling bats in Baton Rouge but Michael Barrett’s whereabouts are unknown.

    Do you remember when Jason Kendall was on the Cubs? Me neither.

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  14. dmick89

    @ sitrick:
    My guess is he’ll get another chance to start next year. When they’re going through rehab he’ll be starting games and I’d expect that they stretch him out a bit. I also think the Cubs have all but made up their minds that Vizcaino is a reliever.

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  15. dmick89

    @ Edwin:
    Evaluating trades is difficult. That trade was to specifically help the Cubs out in 2008 and 2009. It did. Probably not as much as the Cubs hoped (2009), but it still helped them more than keeping Donaldson at the time.

    We can always look back at trades to see who won (advantage A’s here if you were to ask me who won), but really the best and maybe only decent way to analyze a trade is when it happened. At the time it was a good trade for both teams and I don’t think one or the other got the better.

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  16. WaLi

    Just wondering mb, do you think you are a little high on Vizcaino? How successful is Tommy John nowadays? I dont know which is why I ask.

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  17. dmick89

    @ WaLi:
    I really don’t think I’m all that high on him. I think the potential is still there. By the way, TJS is quite successful these days, but the issue with Vizcaino is that he doesn’t appear to be able to handle the starter’s role. He also has a troublesome injury history for someone his age and it’s probably important to remember that two organizations have already passed on him because of that (Yankees and Braves).

    Like I said, I think the potential to be a very good starter (probably a number 2) is still there. I just think there’s little chance of that happening. I’d say here what I said about Edwards in the last thread. We hear about all these pitchers who are future closers and it seems to me that few of them are. Closers and these lockdown relievers tend to come out of nowhere. Not always, but usually. They’re also not very good for very long (not always, but usually). So future closer as some have said is likely for Vizcaino just means to me that he’s probably headed for a career as an average reliever and that’s only if he can stay healthy.

    I think I’m probably lower on him than a lot of people here, but I still put him higher than Edwards just because I believe in his potential and he’s done it at a higher level at a younger age.

    What I mean by “I believe in his potential” is that I believe the potential is actually there. I don’t with Edwards. I think his ceiling is as a number 4 or 5 starter and I think he’s much less likely to reach that ceiling than Vizcaino (who is not at all likely).

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  18. dmick89

    Anyone know of a site that allows you to sort players by height and weight? I’m looking for a database of stats that include those two things to compare Edwards to and I don’t know of any. I know you can do it with a retrosheet database, but IIRC, it was more difficult to set up on a Mac.

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  20. WaLi

    @ dmick89:
    I guess you haven’t been high on him, but you have liked him since we got him. Which is rare, because you don’t like anything (dying laughing)

    Thanks for info on TJS

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  21. dmick89

    @ WaLi:
    I was fairly high on him, but also fairly cautious because it seemed he was destined for the bullpen. That’s only more true since his injury this year so I’ve lowered my expectations further.

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