The Cubs acquired Mike Olt from the Rangers on July 22nd. Along with Olt, the Cubs acquired CJ Edwards, Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez (PTBNL).
Olt is 6-2, weighs 210 lbs., bats and throws right-handed. The 3rd baseman was the 22nd ranked prospect in baseball entering 2013 by both mlb.com and Baseball America.
He was drafted in the 1st supplemental round in 2010 (49th overall) out of UConn. His brother had or still was playing there. He signed with the Rangers for $717,300.
Performance
.201/.303/.381 in 432 plate appearances (all but 12 of them at AAA). I wish that was all that I had to write.
Like Brett Jackson before him and many others before Brett Jackson, strikeouts are a huge reason for the decline. In many ways, the Cubs acquired a reclamation project in the Matt Garza trade. A project they were more than aware of, but were happy to take the risk and add his potential bat to the organization. It wouldn't be such a bad season if he hit quite well with Iowa, but he did not.
Quite the opposite happened. He was somehow worse. In 152 plate appearances with Iowa he hit shit/shit/shit. In numeric terms that is .168/.276/.275. It was good for a .262 wOBA and 48 wRC+.
Over his full season he struckout in 30% of his plate appearances and walked in 13.2%. My mom told if you can't say something nice about someone, don't say it. Unfortunately, I've already said bad things so I'll find a positive here and it's that the guy can walk. So could Brett Jackson and a lot of the others that have strikeout problems. Sorry, that's just about as nice as I can get in describing Olt's season.
I'll repost this bit I put together back in July.
|
Player |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
|
Player A |
550 |
465 |
84 |
125 |
27 |
1 |
27 |
77 |
146 |
233 |
10 |
4 |
|
Player B |
550 |
471 |
88 |
130 |
24 |
10 |
16 |
66 |
149 |
223 |
2 |
7 |
Player A is Mike Olt and he has more overall power than Player B (Brett Jackson). He takes a few more walks and their strikeouts are within 3 and keep in mind these are minor league stats. Olt hit 55 extra base hits to Jackson's 50. These players are a pretty close match even when you get to fielding.
One is an infielder and the other a centerfielder, but the positional adjustment is the same for both positions. Olt is known as a very good fielder so he probably has the edge on Jackson here who was seen as above average to good in CF.
This doesn't mean Olt is headed for the same type of career. He could still turn out to be better, but Jackson was highly thought of too. The problem with striking out at the rate these two have over their careers is that your just not putting the ball in play enough to hit for a high enough average. You have to make up for it with exceptional walk rates and be exceptional in other areas. Sometimes that's not even enough.
Scouting
I'll post some scouting reports since there's so much information about him. Assume it was written prior to 2013 unless it's otherwise obvious when it was written.
The 49th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Olt raced to Texas in little more than two years despite missing half of the 2011 season after breaking his collarbone in a home-plate collision. He led the Double-A Texas League with 28 homers and a .579 slugging percentage in 2012 before being called up in August. Plantar fasciitis in his left foot kept him out of the lineup for most of September. With plus raw power and a strong hitting approach, Olt is a threat to go deep anytime he steps to the plate. He works deep counts and piles up both walks and strikeouts, so his average will settle in the .260-.270 range. Pitchers have had success exploiting the length in his swing by attacking him with high fastballs, and he continues to work to identify and stay back on breaking balls. Scouts say Olt is a joy to watch defensively, owing to his agility and ability to make throws from any angle. He’s a well below-average runner. Like Profar, Olt has advanced rapidly thanks to his tools, work ethic and mental toughness. He’s blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre, so a shift to first base or an outfield corner could be in the works. A potential all-star, he could open 2013 in the big league lineup or get a couple of months in Triple-A. — Baseball America
The de facto top prospect prize moved this summer, Olt was once a no-brainer top 50 talent, but struggles at the plate have depressed his value, and the Rangers made him expendable in the deal for Matt Garza. The ceiling is still in the first-division range, with an average hit tool but legit over-the-fence power potential, the kind that is quite appealing given his above-average defensive profile at third base. The downside is a hit tool that might fail to play up to average and could limit the utility of his power, making him an exploitable target of higher-level pitching. I’d put a role 5 on him, with some risk given the questions about the bat-to-ball ability. — Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus at the trade deadline this year.
Olt entered the 2013 season seemingly ready for a big league job, but there was no room on the Rangers' Opening Day roster. Then Olt had problems with blurry vision that caused him to get off to a bad start and miss the entire month of May. He bounced back in June, regaining his power stroke, before being dealt to the Cubs in the Matt Garza trade in July. His hands, range and arm, the last of which being his best defensive tool, all play very well at third, though he's seen time at first and in the outfield as well. Olt may not hit for a really high average, and fans should be prepared for a good amount of strikeouts, but he'll also draw a ton of walks and is a better all-around hitter than many anticipated. The power is legit, too, and it's not a projection. Assuming healthy, he should be ready to hit in Wrigley Field soon. — mlb.com
Olt has received a lot of hype in the past year and has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. A potential plus defender at the hot corner, his path to third base at the big-league level is currently blocked by veteran Adrian Beltre. Olt has seen time in both right field — where his range would probably be below average — and at first base. His strong arm would be wasted at first base. I asked a talent evaluator if he thought Olt would be an above-average defender elsewhere on the field, right away. “Not necessarily,” the person said. “We feel he can be average at first base or in the outfield now and play higher as he gets more experience out there. He is athletic and has a plus arm, and the footwork, particularly at first base, should come along.”
Olt, 24, slugged 28 home runs in Double-A and has above-average power. His pop impressed the contact I spoke with and he said, “He has easy power. The ball jumps off his bat and has a different sound than many hitters. The challenge for him offensively will be to cut down on the swing-and-miss and continue being more selective at the plate. We think [ hitting coach] Dave Magadan will be a tremendous influence on Mike and they have already started to work together with some early, positive results.”
Olt isn’t afraid to take walks but he strikes out a lot, which will drag down his batting average. He struggles with pitch recognition at times and his swing can get long. He has a chance to be a .260 hitter with 20 home runs and above-average defense at third base. — Fangraphs
Grade A-: Borderline B+. Bothered by vision problem early, hitting just .205/.310/.388 in Triple-A, still has power, defense, but strikeout rate is getting the best of him at this point. He turns 25 next month, needs a shot soon. Mentioned in trade rumors every 12 seconds. — Sickels
Outlook
Well, if Olt can cut his strikeout rate down to a manageable and poor 25%, he has a real chance to succeed at the MLB level. He won't reach the potential Cubs fans are thinking are there at that rate, but he'd be at the MLB level at least. There's decent reason to think he can do that. Prior to AAA it was below that and even at Iowa it just slightly over 24%. There's also reason to think it's only go get worse when he gets the MLB level.
That's really about all that needs to be written here. It's all about the strikeouts for Olt. Find a way to cut them down while maintaining a good enough walk rate that you can still have a decent OBP.
While Jackson and Olt may be similar, it's worth pointing out that Jackson would have the platoon advantage about twice as often as Olt. Against righties since 2011 (includes all but 310 of minor league plate appearances), he's hit exceptionally well against lefties. You'd expect that. Against righties, he's hit just .239/.337/.453 over 772 plate appearances. He's mashed lefties (.273/.405/.555).
If Olt struggles to reduce the strikeout rate, he could probably be a right-handed pinch hitter and give you plus defense at 3rd. I think he has a future ahead of him. It just probably isn't going to be all that bright of a future.
2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews
- Matt Szczur
- Trevor Clifton
- Trey Masek
- Logan Watkins
- Willson Contreras
- Corey Black
- Yoanner Negrin
- Tyler Alamo
- Marco Hernandez
- Shawon Dunston, Jr.
- Ben Wells
- Brett Jackson
- Armando Rivera
- CJ Edwards
- Dillon Maples
- Duane Underwood
- Zack Godley
- Justin Grimm
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Zeke DeVoss
- Jae-Hoon Ha
- Ivan Pineyro
- Alberto Cabrera
- Paul Blackburn
- Yasiel Balaguert
- Josh Vitters
- Rob Zastryzny
- Neil Ramirez
- Christian Villanueva
- Jeimer Candelario
- Juan Carlos Paniagua
- Arismendy Alcantara
- Mike Olt
Comments
There’s a poll at the SI website asking if SF made the right choice in “getting rid of” Alex Smith.
Man, that’s a tough call. Was it wise to trade the backup QB for the 33rd pick in the latest draft and a 3 next year (it’ll be a 2 if KC wins 8+)? Backup QB or two second rounders…hmm…
Omar LittleQuote Reply
Your secret’s out, Bubbles. Now we know that you’re really Al Yellon.
BerseliusQuote Reply
MB believes Mike Olt, at minimum, will not die soon.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
That’s why he’s the optimist around here.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
Last I checked you were 1-2 and Alex Smith’s Chiefs were unbeaten.
QED
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’ll take a 1-2 record and the draft picks over 3-0 any day.
That always cracked me up, btw. It’s bad enough that pitchers’ records matter to some people, but the fact that single football players have WL records is crazy. Pitchers have WAY more control over a game than a QB.
Who’s a better QB: Manning or Brady? So many people would say Brady because of the Super Bowls. So by that rationale, the Patriots’ punter must be better than Shane Lechler because of the Super Bowls. Tommie Agee must have been a better RB than Barry Sanders (2 Super Bowls to 0).
Omar LittleQuote Reply
I like how the picture of Olt is a dumb stare straight ahead.
MylesQuote Reply
I’m not a Alex Smith fan at all and anytime you can get 2 early round picks for a very average QB, I think you make that trade 10 times out of 10.
MuckerQuote Reply
That being said, draft picks are useless if you don’t draft well. I’m not keen on 49ers drafting but it looks like they have a pretty good scouting dept. considering the talent on the team.
MuckerQuote Reply
I guess the question is okay if you think that Capernick (sp?) sucks and Smith is awesome. If that’s the case then SF made the wrong move. I mean Alex Smith was drafted 1 overall right? So two 2nd round picks (even if 33 and 34) are not worth 1 overall. Now, Alex Smith is clearly not a 1 overall so my point is moot.
WaLiQuote Reply
From the Sveum Thread:
dmick89 wrote:
Do you think they might fire him just to get some fans in the seats? Be like “Look, we aren’t trying to lose any more! We are bringing (INSERT BIG NAME) in to take the team to .500!”
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Sounds like it’s time to re-hire Dusty.
sitrickQuote Reply
Ryno, what’s your email? You still have mine, right?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
They could drag TLR out of retirement to make sure they lose even more fans (dying laughing). I think we’d have to shut down this blog if that happened.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
TLR for manager, Mark Grace for bench coach, no cabs for anybody!
sitrickQuote Reply
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ca8e174a54/between-two-ferns-with-zach-galifianakis-justin-bieber
GWQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Exactly. It was actually a pretty good trade for both teams, but I’m sticking with the lunacy of asking if it was right for SF. Look at it this way, would you use a second-round pick on a backup QB? What about packaging two 2s to move up for one? They would be mocked for that. So yeah, trading their backup for two 2s was absolutely the right move.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Many people prefer Alex Smith to Kaepernick, but that doesn’t have anything to do with SI’s question. Harbaugh decided Kaepernick was his starting QB. Your choice is:
A. A starting-caliber backup QB.
B. The No. 33 overall pick and another second rounder.
If you choose A, you still hope he never sees the field. Choice B should net you two starters.
And to those who prefer Smith, he averaged 7.97 yards per attempt last season. By far the best of his career. It was 7.1 in 2011 and 6.4 this year.
Kaepernick, in his first season starting, averaged 8.32 (for reference, that’s better than Aaron Rodgers’ career average). He also rushed for 415 yards in 7 starts to Smith’s 132. Three INTs to Smith’s 5.
If you think SF shouldn’t have traded Smith for two 2s, your rong. If you think Smith should be starting over Kaepernick, there’s not a word to describe how wrong you are.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t think I do. What’s yours and I’ll send you an email.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
MB for commish?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
Send me an email through the contact link at the top and I’ll get back with ya this afternoon.
dmick89Quote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
I’ll do it for half of what he’s asking
MylesQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
I’m a big fan of having as many draft picks as you can possibly get. Most drafts tend to have the best value in the late 1st through early 5th rounds so if I were a GM, I would stockpile as many of those picks as I can and draft with them, or package some picks to move up to get a “can’t miss”. Kap was obviously the future for the 49ers after last year so Smith didn’t have as much value to them as 2 possible 2nd round picks. It’s a no brainer really.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I’m in. I’ll come in and make a few sweeping changes and then resign. Instant replay will be fixed and will make more sense than it does now. I’ll fix whatever else I can to speed the fucking games up and consider moving the Cubs to AA where they have a chance to win the championship. Al least we could say we saw the Cubs win it all.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I’ll do it for free. All I want to do is basically speed the game up. Limit the number of mid-inning relief changes to 1. I could even be talked into a system in which a manager can buy one more chance at some cost. No more fucking around on the mound or in the box. Get your shit and get the job done. That’ll be my message and it will hang atop all ballparks. Start fucking around and you get fined. After 1 fine you get ejected and fined. After 3 ejections you get suspended without pay for 25 games.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
And drugs for EVERYONE!!
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Are you suggesting some form of formal shot clock? Also, if you limit the pitching changes to one per inning, you’ll need to add in some rules about guys getting “hurt” during innings as well. That’s the loophole that will be used. If you are a pitcher and come out of an inning “hurt” you are unavailable for the next game?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Agreed. That’s what’s so baffling about that poll, which I bet is about 50/50 right now (I won’t look at the results, because it’ll make me mad). I honestly can’t think of any justification for that being a bad move. I suppose if you KNEW Kaepernick would lose a lot of time to injury or regress so severely that Alex Smith played two draft picks better, it would be a bad deal. Incidentally, three games into this season (including his two worst games) and Kaepernick is still playing only a tick worse than Smith…and Smith didn’t play that amazing SEA defense.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
I’m now the commissioner. No more than 5 pickoffs a game per team. No more than two pitchers per team per inning. 26th player on each roster that must come in as a pinch-runner (you’re welcome, Tony Campana). If the batter doesn’t enter the batter’s box 6 seconds after the ball is thrown back to the pitcher, it’s an automatic strike. If the pitcher doesn’t deliver the pitch 10 seconds after the batter readies in the batter’s box, it’s an automatic ball. Bean a batter? Automatic ejection, even if unintentional. Touch a player from another team (in a non-baseball fashion)? Ejection and 2^x game suspension, where x is the career occurrence.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
I agree. The fact that it’s even a poll after 3 FUCKING WEEKS is just about as pathetic as you can get.
MuckerQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Minimum batters faced would be better, no? Don’t want to leave a guy who doesn’t have it in to get shelled for 50 pitches and still not be able to take him out.
sitrickQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I’ll do it for half of free
MylesQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
You have a promising future as vice-commissioner
MylesQuote Reply
Ladies and Gentlemen, the next Commissioner
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
If you suspend everyone for one game, that’s going to be a lot of lost revenue.
/exponentials
BerseliusQuote Reply
Playoffs Question (because I’m kind of dumb):
If the season ends right this second, your playoff teams are: Atlanta (E), St. Louis (C), LA (W), Pitt(WC1), Cin(WC2).
Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati in the one gamer. Does the old rule still live then whereas the wild card team doesn’t play an in-division rival in the NLDS? Because right now, the team with the best record is St. Louis. Would they then play Atlanta instead?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
IIRC they got rid of that rule last year.
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I don’t think the manufacturer intended the shake weight to be used like that. Sorry I couldn’t help, but I’m sure a reputable proctologist will have a solution.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
The moral of this story, really, is that I hate people.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Yeah, basically a clock in which the pitcher has X number of seconds to deliver the next pitch. I’d have to work it out to include all potential shenanigans, but that would basically be it.
As for a pitcher who is hurt, I don’t want to put teams in a position that they’d be penalized if the pitcher is actually hurt, but at the same time it would be taken advantage of. I’m not sure what the best way to handle that is. A simple one game suspension might work, but I could see a team with a reliever that has worked 4 or 5 days in a row trying to gain that additional change.
Instead of suspending a player for one game, I lean toward treating it like any a second pitching change. Manager forced to buy that pitching change. Not sure how to handle it, but it could be worked out.
There are other loopholes to consider and I’d do other things to speed the game up.
Not sure how long for a clock. I’d probably look at the average time between pitches and and set it a second higher than that.
I’m also curious how many people who attend baseball games would like a number of alternatives to how extra innings are currently played. For example, starting in the 11th or maybe 12 inning the inning starts with a baserunner on 2nd. Next inning there’s a runner on 3rd. Following inning 2nd and 3rd.
I can’t imagine 18 inning games appeal to anyone other than hardcore baseball fans.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Minimum number of batters faced would work too.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I could get behind most of these changes.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I thought they did, but couldn’t remember if it was just for the one game Wild Card Playoff, or if they did across the board.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Interwebs ftw:
Jebus bless Wikipedia
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Why even let a batter get out of the batter’s box?
The rule should be that once a player enters the batters box at the start of the at bat the pitcher can throw his pitches whenever he is ready (and must throw one at least 10 seconds after getting the ball back from the catcher/umpire). If the batter steps out of the box in the middle of the at bat the pitcher can still throw pitches.
A batter would have to ask an umpire for a timeout in order to stop the pitcher from throwing, and to prevent abuse, the number of batter timeouts could be restricted (maybe each player gets one a game or each team gets one an inning).
There is no need for hitters to step out of the box after every pitch. Need to adjust your batting gloves? Too bad, buy ones that fit properly. Wipe the sweat of your brow in the on deck circle before you get into the box.
Watch hitters in batting practice. They never leave the box. The pitch comes, they swing then they get ready for the next pitch. No adjusting of the batting gloves or uniform between pitches. No stretching or practice swings. If they can do it in batting practice they can do it in a game.
One of the reasons I like to cheer for Anthony Rizzo and hope he figures it out is that he doesn’t waste any time in the box. He rarely leaves the box between pitches. As much as I liked what David Dejesus brought to the Cubs it was brutal to watch him in the batter’s box. He stepped out after every pitch, adjusted his gloves, rolled his shoulders, squeezed his grip on the bat and then stepped back in. His at bats took forever.
Jim LQuote Reply
@ Jim L:
You must have hated Nomar.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
I was thinking closer to 17 seconds between pitches. I don’t even think Maddux could do 10 seconds. Fangraphs has the pitch times. I’d organize it by starters. Relievers are notoriously slow.
dmick89Quote Reply
Looks like 22 seconds is roughly the median pace for qualified starters this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d still look into making it 20 seconds.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/2013-cubs-prospects-in-review-gioskar-amaya.html
sitrickQuote Reply
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