I'm not sure any Cub of the past 10 years is more enigmatic than Juan Carlos Paniagua (JCP for short). He's been "signed" 3 times, and the first 2, questions about his age (questions being used rather euphemistically) resulted in suspensions and deals being rescinded. He was signed the first time by the Dbacks in May 2009 (as Juan Carlos Collado) for $17,000, then after a year suspension signed for $1.1 million with the Yankees, was suspended another year for falsifying paperwork again, and then signed for good on July 19, 2012.
As you could imagine, the MLB took it's sweet, sweet time in doing his paperwork for the third time. It also took forever for his visa to clear, so while he was expected to debut at the beginning of the year, he didn't get stateside until July 8, 2013.
Performance
As a 23-year old, you'd expect JCP to dominate basically anywhere he went short of AA on up. That isn't what happened. He played a lot in the DSL (and he was excellent there in 12.1 innings), but he only pitched 21.2 innings above rookie ball and was quite underwhelming in all of them. He allowed 25 runs in those 21.2 frames, walking 24 and striking out 24 as well. Those are gross numbers, and it's best to just imagine he didn't pitch at all (and considering his 4 stops, his visa, and everything, he basically didn't).
Scouting
Luckily, there's some solid scouting on Paniagua (seeing as he signed essentially 2 major contracts). I'll concede to the inimitable Ben Badler, who is the preeminent source on international prospects:
Paniagua hasn't shown the same velocity he had when he signed with the Yankees—he sat at 93-95 mph at a May workout in Puerto Rico—but his 81-84 mph slider has improved after some scouts last year thought it was a slurvy pitch that graded out behind his changeup. He also throws an occasional curveball, and while he was around the plate in Puerto Rico, his command and pitchability have been issues in the past.
Comically, Baseball Prospectus still has him as Juan Collado in their system. They've never once mentioned him, which seems incredible considering he's not an NP. Baseball America also had little to say, and what little they said about him this year was quite negative.
All of that being said, I don't really care. He's 6'1", 175, so his 93-95 heater (which was up to 98 at the time of the Yankees signing) could even gain a mile or two as he fills out (and accounts are that he is getting bigger). He has 4 pitches so he's a threat to start, but as a 23-year old, it's probably time to seriously consider a permanent move to the bullpen, where he could likely return to 98 mile cheese and a hard slider. That generally is the arsenal of a closer.
Outlook
JCP has, frankly, been very disappointing since he signed the contract. Some of that is his fault and some of it isn't. In any case, he's a 24-year old who hasn't shown he can handle even A ball, so he just isn't much of a prospect at this point. He'll likely start the year as a reliever in Kane County, and if he dominates, he'll be promoted extremely aggressively. If he doesn't, at least he cost 5.5 million less than Gerardo Concepcion!
2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews
- Matt Szczur
- Trevor Clifton
- Trey Masek
- Logan Watkins
- Willson Contreras
- Corey Black
- Yoanner Negrin
- Tyler Alamo
- Marco Hernandez
- Shawon Dunston, Jr.
- Ben Wells
- Brett Jackson
- Armando Rivera
- CJ Edwards
- Dillon Maples
- Duane Underwood
- Zack Godley
- Justin Grimm
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Zeke DeVoss
- Jae-Hoon Ha
- Ivan Pineyro
- Alberto Cabrera
- Paul Blackburn
- Yasiel Balaguert
- Josh Vitters
- Rob Zastryzny
- Neil Ramirez
- Christian Villanueva
- Jeimer Candelario
- Juan Carlos Paniagua
Comments
@ dmick89:
Agreed. They nailed it in the first season. Killing was an addiction, but the ritual was his compulsion. They made strides to address it in season 2, but they were a little too literal, imo.
Maybe it’s nothing, but addiction is something not everyone truly understands. Dexter had a chance to show a lot of people what it’s all about and they whiffed. I think it would have made it a better show if you could have seen the internal struggle Dexter faced.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
Sorry about what happened to your phone, Myles.
http://youtu.be/e8eZuxjo3iY
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[img]http://i.minus.com/ibg2eRrqn1FPkD.gif[/img]
Omar LittleQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
It’s a Nokia, it survived.
MylesQuote Reply
Omar Little wrote:
I’m not sure a show about a serial killer is the best way to inform an audience about addiction. I definitely agree it did at one point and should have continued to do better, but I really don’t think, as a whole, it would have made people more understanding of addiction.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
That’s probably true. And to be clear, I’m not suggesting Dexter be a PSA about addiction.
When I think of the Dexter series as a whole, I’m bothered by the fact that the creators decided to spend more time making Dexter into Pinocchio, trying to be a real boy, than explaining why he is who he is. The Dark Passenger thing was perfect for the beginning, but then it just vanished. By contrast, I think Breaking Bad did an excellent job explaining Walt’s transformation.
Stepping back, Dexter basically breaks down like this:
SPOILERS
Season 1, Dexter realizes the root of his urges. Season 2, he tries to understand them further. Season 3, he begins to open up to others. Season 4, he seeks a mentor to help him balance his two lives. Season 5, he bangs a snaggletooth. Season 6, he kills Tom Hanks and his AP Calculus teacher. Season 7, he chases a faget mobster. Season 8, he fixes the cable?
Incidentally, I forgot how good some of the scenes in Season 7 were. Dexter and Isaac had a great dynamic.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
The ending would have been better if Dexter had died instead of Deb. Deb becomes Harrison’s guardian and catches him choking his chicken.
Scratch that… Let’s make that him choking his cat. Or even better, let’s say Deb catches him stabbing the neighbor’s dog.
I think that would have been awesome. We spent the entire series assuming that Dexter’s mother’s death made him and Brian what they were. The entire show was him trying to understand and escape that. And then, with one scene, it turns out that he was just an asshole who reproduced.
Such beautiful poetry.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
The differences between those two as they aged were never as obvious as they were this year when they aired at the same time. As I said yesterday, Breaking Bad knew what it was and stuck to it. Dexter forgot what it was. One show remained awesome and the other turned to shit. I have confidence that Vince Gilligan will deliver a finale that’s deserved and all I was doing was hoping that that Dexter could get one or two scenes half right.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
For sure. Same with Lost. Lost always entertained me and I was content with the ending. After watching Breaking Bad, I now realize the Lost creators painted themselves into a corner.
Lost was different, though. They built the show on a mystery and, based on the ending, I assume they never planned the series out.
Dexter…I don’t know what the fuck happened there. They had a chance every season to right that ship. Even though it began to suck, they could have saved it with one good final season. Really? He’s a fucking lumberjack?!
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
When it appeared he had died, I thought “you know, I know live with that ending.” Nothing great, but I could say it was alright. Then the show went on and you just knew they fucked up an ending that wouldn’t have even been good.
Here’s what Breaking Bad would have been if the Dexter people ran it: Walt gets cancer and starts cooking meth. Shit happens and some people even die. Tom Hanks and his AP Calculus teacher would have been the big bad in season 3 and we’d have no Gus. Mike would have been played by Quinn. Not the actor. Quinn! By season 4 Walt starts to break good and in the end Marie dies while Walt’s a lumberjack.
Who would Masuka play? Cartel boss?
It’s frightening to think of what BB would be if those clowns ran it.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s funny. I really wanted to start watching Lost when it first aired, but by midseason I had zero interest in watching it. I think I watched the first episode at some point, but I do that with a lot of shows.
dmick89Quote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
That’s probably about right, except that Gus would have been a faget and Walt would have banged a snaggletoothed rape victim.
Another thing that bugged me about Dexter is how he had virtually no relationship with his son. They went out of their way to make the kid be “born in blood” like Dexter and then completely abandoned it. Dexter is ready to stop killing for some piece of ass, but his child (who went through exactly what he did) has nothing to do with it?
Omar LittleQuote Reply
I just got The Show 2013 and simming the season using the April 1st rosters, Cubs finished 73-89, a game ahead of the Brewers.
The league results were pretty accurate in both central divisions, but the other divisions were not.
Then I updated to the current rosters and ran it again. Most of the results weren’t too different, but the Cubs only won 67 games.
/I had a life once
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I wonder how much of Dexter not going as dark as the show initially promised was that it got so big before Dexter could kill Doakes. They were showing watered-down episodes on CBS after what, a season and a half? I could see Showtime/CBS saying “hey, we’ve got a goldmine here and we’re not letting you ruin it by shooting this character’s likability all to hell.” It would explain the showrunners’ line about Dexter being a sort of superhero Pinnochio, which sounds like total bullshit to me.
sitrickQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
which division was the farthest from reality? AL east?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’m not crazy about the new Fangraphs format. The columns on the right now are offense, defense and WAR. The problem is, defense is UZR + positional adjustment, which, while useful in WAR calculations, is pretty confusing by itself.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I guess I see where they’re coming from, though. Their previous policy of displaying UZR without any (positional) context was kind of strange.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe it’s more that I’m depressed to see Anthony Rizzo below average in both offense and defense than anything else.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/2013-cubs-prospects-in-review-arismendy-alcantara.html
MylesQuote Reply