2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Jake Arrieta

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by Obstructed View Staff41 Comments

With 409 professional innings under his belt, Jake Arrieta isn't a prospect. As one of the major acquisitions over the past 12 months, however, and as someone who remains more potential than performance at this point, we felt it was worth it to take a look at his 2013 and try to get a sense of what he may or may not become for the Cubs down the road.

A 27 year old right hander taken in the fifth round of the 2007 draft by the Orioles, Arrieta worked his way through the Orioles' farm system and arrived in Baltimore in June 2010. Along the way he would rack up impressive strikeout totals (posting 10.68 and 7.66 K/9 rates between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk as a 23 year old in 2009), sterling ERAs (sub-3.00 ERAs at both high-A and and Double-A, and a 1.85 mark in his second go at Norfolk in 2010), and iffy walk rates (Arrieta owns a career 3.8 minor league BB/9). Baseball America ranked him the 67th best prospect in the game after his debut 2008 season, falling to #99 a year later due to a lackluster first go at AAA.

Arrieta spent his first two seasons as a big leaguer being not much good at anything. His walk rates continued to be terrible, walking more than 10% of his batters faced in both 2010 and 2011, leading to FIPs of 4.76 and 5.34, respectively, and 0.9 and 0.0 WAR seasons. 2012 offered some promise of development, as his strikeout rate rebounded (8.56 K/9, 22%), he cut his walk rate nearly in half (2.75 BB/9, 7.1%), and posted a 4.05 FIP that was almost a run and a half lower than the year previous. His ERA swelled to over 6 thanks to a godawful strand rate (57.3%), but he still managed a 1.6 WAR season, and began 2013 looking to shed a rep as a Quad-A player.

Performance

The promise of 2012 faded quickly for Arrieta, who was terrible in 4 April starts for Baltimore before being banished back to Norfolk. He allowed a total of 20 runs and 17 walks in 23.2 innings for Baltimore before the Orioles dealt him to the Cubs along with Pedro Strop in the Scott Feldman trade. Over the course of 2013, his walk rate has ballooned once more to a hair south of 5 per nine. His HR/FB rate, while down from the ~15% mark he'd posted the past two seasons, is still an awful 12.3%, allowing more than one per nine. His ground ball rate stinks, his BABIP is unsustainably low (.239 compared to a career .284 mark), and he's FIPing at a 4.84 mark on the year. He's found a bit more success since the trade, offering 5 quality starts out of 9 attempts for the Cubs and a 3.66 ERA in 51.2 innings, but has still walked 24 against only 37 Ks since switching leagues.

All in all, while the Cub portion of Arrieta's 2013 season has looked acceptable enough, it looks like he's done it with smoke and mirrors, and there's little in the numbers that suggests much reason to get excited about him long term.

Scouting

Arrieta mainly throws five pitches, though he added a cutter in 2012 that he's mixed in about 1% of the time since. Mostly Arrieta works off of his two fastballs, a four-seamer and a sinker, both of which sit about 93 mph. He also throws a curveball and slider with regularity, and an infrequently used changeup that's a clear level or two below his other offerings.

There's a lot of pro opinion out there on Arrieta, so let's dig into that a bit, eh? Here's what B-Pro had to say in April when Arrieta was sent back down to AAA-Norfolk:

After 62 starts spread over parts of four seasons it's time to ask: When do you move Arrieta to the bullpen? The 27-year-old heads to Norfolk as the big-league leader in walks issued, having granted 16 free passes in 19 innings. Arrieta is a big, physical guy with a pair of good fastballs and the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games. Unfortunately, his command and control leave everyone wanting. There's probably a good reason why the O's have abstained from throwing Arrieta in the bullpen—perhaps he can't warm up quick enough, or they can't bring themselves to give up on his starting days…For now it's worth asking the question. Starting just isn't working.

And in analyzing the trade to the Cubs post-deadline:

[Arrieta’s] got a big fastball and was a top 100 prospect at 23, but he hasn’t shown the pitchability to get batters out a third time through the order, or the changeup to handle lefties. He's 27, past the age at which he can ask for patience. That all makes him a potential bullpen reclamation.

That same piece links to a really interesting MASN Sports column about Arrieta and what's potentially wrong with him. One interesting quote from it:

"I think Arrieta, when he gets in trouble, goes a little too hard and it snowballs on him. He doesn't pitch and he loses his composure. He just panics."

This, more or less, is the book on Arrieta everywhere; fantastic stuff with no command, and an approach to pitching that doesn't reflect a guy that trusts his top-tier stuff (sounds pretty Marmol-esque, to me, for whatever that's worth). Just about every scouting report will mention how Arrieta might have a dominant future in the bullpen if a team ever tries him out.

Outlook

Barring some semi-miraculous, Cliff Lee-style evaporation of his walk rate, Arrieta doesn't seem to have much of a future as a major-league starter. He's had more success since joining the Cubs, but even the quality starts look to be fairly smoke and mirrors, fueled by a low BABIP and lofty aspirations. Most everyone agrees he's got the stuff to succeed as a late-inning reliever, but that last quote above raises questions for me about makeup, and whether or not he has the personality that can handle blowing an eighth or ninth inning lead without taking it with him into his next appearance. 

As far as next season goes, his solid superficial numbers since the trade might earn him a few starts next season, especially if Theo and Company decide to shoot for 2015 instead of 2014. Whenever the organization decides to really try to contend, however, you'd have to think Arrieta would fall into a bullpen/6th starter role, with the potential to earn more high-leverage late-inning work as the year progresses.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

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Comments

  1. GW

    re:wood, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a favor to him to keep his era under 3 for the year with the 200 innings, like how guys get pulled in the last game if they are just above .300

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  3. dmick89

    I’m really hoping that Arrieta isn’t a part of the rotation next year. I think he might be able to do well enough in relief, but I just don’t see a starting pitcher.

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  5. Myles

    GW wrote:

    re:wood, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a favor to him to keep his era under 3 for the year with the 200 innings, like how guys get pulled in the last game if they are just above .300

    It Didn’t Work

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  8. Author
    Rizzo the Rat

    Cliff Lee had 54 strikeouts and 1 base on balls this month (first person in history to strike out 50+ and walk 1 or fewer in a month).

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  12. dmick89

    Who had Dioner Navarro leading the team in batting average with 2 games left in the season? He’s the only one over .300 for those who care about that.

    Who had Dioner Navarro leading the team in OBP?

    Anyone have Dioner Navarro leading the team in wOBA?

    (dying laughing)

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  21. dmick89

    @ Suburban kid:
    That’s true, I didn’t like that contract and still find it hard to believe any other team was offering anywhere close to what the Cubs gave him. They’ve gotten great value out of it and now I just hope they let the guy walk. No reason to Gary Gaetti the guy. I guess as a backup he’s not bad at all, but how much money is he going to get now? $3 million to be a backup? No thanks.

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  22. Author
    Suburban kid

    dmick89 wrote:

    They’ve gotten great value out of it

    And because of this, I don’t really mind what they do with backups and bench guys. They seem to know what they’re doing.

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  24. Author
    Suburban kid

    @ dmick89:
    I see what you’re saying but I’ll still give them the benefit of the doubt if they give out another head scratcher contract next year.

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  26. Author
    Suburban kid

    JD is the perfect guy for the Cubs booth at this point in time. His dry humor is making this meaningless beating the Cubs are taking quite enjoyable to watch.

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  28. Jim L

    I don’t understand why people think Girardi might be coming to Chicago. I understand he went to Northwestern and played here, but Theo and Jed have no ties to him and I cannot see them overpaying for a big name manager when there are so many other places to better spend the money to improve the team, especially for the next year or two. Furthermore the Yankees have stated that they want Girardi back and he has said he wants to be back. i cannot imagine the Cubs outbidding the Yankees for him and I cannot imagine Girardi taking less money to leave a team that expects to compete for the playoffs each year to come to a team who has lost 96+ games the last two years.

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  30. J

    Have you guys seen the Yankees roster? That’s not a team that’s ready to compete for 2-3 years. Their infield is going to be brutal next year, and the outfield is going to be older than time with Soriano, Wells, and Ichiro figuring to play just as much next year. Cano will be 31 next year and is already in decline. There are a ton of injury concerns. They have no position players rising through the ranks. They have to get under the luxury tax threshold for a few years, and won’t be breaking the bank.

    I could definitely see Girardi wanting a team that should be on the rise. I like his experience and track record with a veteran team. However, I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that suggests he’s good with young players. But probably anyone would be an upgrade over Sveum in that sense.

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  32. dmick89

    @ GW:
    Hendry traded Miller to the A’s for Barrett. Henry Blanco is maybe who you’re thinking of? That’s who I’d compare it to.

    And I actually remember defending the Blanco signing when MO bashed it so maybe I ought to just get over the Navarro thing. (dying laughing)

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  33. GW

    @ J:

    i’ll gladly take the yanks over the cubs total wins over the next two years if you’d like.

    and as jim mentioned, i’m not sure why he would be all that appealing to the Cubs. he’s traditional tactically and hard-headed.

    yanks have been ok at player development. Nova looks pretty good, as well as their bullpen arms, I guess. Hughes and Joba were failures. Gardner has been fine when healthy. he’s been good at getting a very veteran group ready to play, if that’s what they want.

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  34. GW

    @ dmick89:

    no, i’m thinking of barrett. it wasn’t a free agent signing, but there were a bunch of stories at the time about hendry coveting his bat, which were strange given his performance to that point in his career (78 OPS+ from 1998-2003). proceeded to put up three good offensive seasons with the cubs before getting shipped out.

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  37. dmick89

    I agree with Jim and GW. I just don’t see Girardi having much interest in coming to the Cubs. After the 2010 season when Girardi’s contract was up last, there was talk the Cubs may go after him. Cubs fans were all excited and predicting Girardi would be the manager. I said the same thing then. Girardi has the best manager gig in baseball. Why would he leave for Chicago? Because he’s from there? Best manager job in baseball.

    If for some reason Girard decided to walk away from the Yankees, he could land Tim McCarver’s job announcing the World Series and work weekly on FOX. If he loved Chicago so much, he could move back to Chicago and do all that and still have a better job than managing the Cubs.

    Then, add in the fact that it doesn’t really make any sense from the Cubs perspective and you’ve got a situation that really shouldn’t even be talked about.

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  40. Andrew

    It’s interesting, I thought Hairston was a great signing at his price for what the cubs needed and navarro was a headscratcher, guess that was wrong. Guessing right on these fringe guys seems like a crapshoot, except for the A’s because they seem to always sign the best scrapheap players. Whoda thunk Marlon Byrd would have a 5 rWAR season this year. That guy is weird. he hits more home runs than ever the year after he gets caught doping. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera, who I thought was a good signing at his price, lays an egg. baseball is a crazy sport

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