New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (1:00 ET, FOX, 10/6/2013)

In Commentary And Analysis by myles22 Comments

Last Week

The Saints blew the doors off of the Miami Dolphins 38-17. The Bears lost 40-32 the Lions in a game that wasn't very close at all.

Bears Run Versus Saints Run Defense

Forte had a pretty nice game, but again it was pretty much the result of one really long run (53). 14/95, all told. Alshon Jeffery had a nifty end-around that got 27 yards as well. Still, the Bears running attack still leaves a little to be desired. 

Fortunately for Chicago, the Saints are a sieve on run defense. They are 26th in the league in adjusted line-yards, and RB's average 4.96 per carry against them, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Since running attacks shorten the game (which would be a good idea for us to do), look to see Forte get plenty of work, especially early.

Saints Run Versus Bears Run Defense

The Saints don't have a run game, and the Bears (Bush excepted) are a stout line. I'd just forget this part.

Bears Pass Versus Saints Pass Defense

Jay Cutler had a WTF game last week (of course Cutler has around 4 a year). He'll look to rebound against a unit that is actually incredible against the pass. It's going to suck for Jay all day, and it's yet another tough test. The best option for the Bears is to go to Marshall; Saints secondaries have held #2 options to the worst rate in football, and TE/RB fare similarly horribly. 

The Saints also get to the passer with fair frequency, and the Bears' pass protect is showing it's warts.

Saints Pass Versus Bears Pass Defense 

One thing you need to know; the Bears are 31st against TE this year. Jimmy Graham is the best TE of the past 5 years. Uh oh.

Special Teams

I had some stuff to say here, but then I realized that the Saints don't have Devin Hester, and we do. Advantage: Bears.

Prediction

It's going to be rough. The Bears don't have a credible path to victory without winning the turnover battle, so I'm looking to that as the bellwether (as it often is). Fortunately, the Bears are virtuosos at created turnovers (and scoring on them), and Trestman will take the game out of Cutler's hands as the situation dictates. It's a home game, which provides another small edge to the Bears. I think they rebound and win a close one.

Myles: Bears 24, Saints 21
Myles' Brother: Saints 31, Bears 24

(4-0 straight up)
(2-1-1 ATS)

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  14. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    MGL ——-> blogging again

    I love the sour grapes in the blog description. “Most of them never followed through on any of the advice I gave them, the dumb bastards.”

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  15. Omar Little

    @ josh:

    I wouldn’t worry too much. I still see them winning 10 games, which should be good enough to get them the 5 seed in the surprisingly weak NFC this season.

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  19. Author
    Myles

    MGL:

    but in my opinion he thinks that he is a lot smarter than he is and consequently he seems to habitually do some really obviously stupid things.

    i almost can’t believe the irony here

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  20. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ sitrick:
    I’m sure I’ll enjoy the blog, but MGL sure is an asshole.

    Which probably makes him about the same as everyone else working in baseball. Meh.

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  22. car ignition

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