Cubs 2013 Positional Breakdowns

In Commentary And Analysis by myles9 Comments

It's time to start actually dissecting the major league club (and it's failure to produce at the plate, specifically). I think a good first step is to measure the production they received from each position relative to the other teams in baseball.

Catcher

The Cubs were near the top of the league in production from catchers last year.

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Indians 972 31 11.60% 18.30% 0.186 0.313 0.365 0.461 0.361 132 2.7 7.2 5.2
Cardinals 709 13 5.20% 12.30% 0.142 0.316 0.33 0.431 0.331 112 19 5.1 5.0
Cubs 704 21 8.10% 19.20% 0.149 0.33 0.354 0.432 0.346 116 18.1 5 5.0
Red Sox 668 19 8.40% 29.60% 0.18 0.364 0.33 0.447 0.339 110 12.6 4.7 4.9
Royals 681 19 6.80% 16.20% 0.154 0.304 0.327 0.428 0.329 105 17 4.6 4.7
Athletics 740 18 11.60% 19.90% 0.144 0.307 0.349 0.402 0.334 113 2.2 4 3.8
Giants 839 19 8.60% 14.70% 0.14 0.3 0.343 0.412 0.33 114 9.7 4.5 3.8
Astros 771 25 8.00% 27.20% 0.171 0.318 0.317 0.419 0.323 103 11.6 4.1 3.7
Pirates 718 20 9.20% 21.00% 0.143 0.269 0.312 0.372 0.306 95 19.1 3.8 3.7
Twins 1326 34 10.30% 19.80% 0.153 0.33 0.351 0.43 0.342 116 -4.5 6.8 3.6
Braves 925 42 8.00% 18.40% 0.202 0.27 0.322 0.456 0.338 115 3.7 4.5 3.4
Angels 655 18 13.10% 24.60% 0.151 0.294 0.34 0.385 0.323 107 5.6 3.1 3.3
Padres 645 15 8.10% 22.80% 0.133 0.274 0.293 0.359 0.285 82 23.2 2.9 3.1
Brewers 782 22 7.50% 15.60% 0.159 0.273 0.313 0.411 0.317 98 14.3 3.2 2.9
Phillies 646 16 6.20% 16.60% 0.129 0.274 0.302 0.375 0.296 84 13.1 2.4 2.6
Dodgers 683 17 8.90% 21.20% 0.132 0.275 0.303 0.365 0.294 88 14.2 2.5 2.6
Rangers 743 26 4.40% 19.10% 0.167 0.293 0.302 0.429 0.318 94 11.1 2.5 2.4
Orioles 680 24 7.10% 19.30% 0.168 0.242 0.276 0.393 0.289 77 17.7 1.9 2.0
Rays 628 9 8.40% 20.50% 0.108 0.295 0.307 0.35 0.293 86 6.7 1.5 1.7
Mets 680 22 7.90% 25.00% 0.142 0.256 0.284 0.356 0.283 80 7.9 1.6 1.6
Nationals 635 19 5.80% 12.90% 0.138 0.248 0.286 0.378 0.288 80 8.1 1 1.1
Yankees 576 8 8.20% 18.10% 0.085 0.25 0.287 0.298 0.266 61 16.3 0.9 1.1
Tigers 655 16 7.90% 21.50% 0.13 0.31 0.319 0.387 0.313 94 -2 1 1.1
Reds 653 11 8.90% 14.40% 0.102 0.247 0.3 0.326 0.274 68 14.3 0.8 0.9
Rockies 924 22 4.10% 18.50% 0.129 0.308 0.3 0.395 0.305 77 2.4 0.8 0.6
Diamondbacks 728 12 8.10% 20.60% 0.096 0.297 0.309 0.343 0.29 76 6.3 0.6 0.6
Mariners 638 16 8.00% 24.80% 0.115 0.236 0.267 0.309 0.26 60 7.9 -0.2 -0.2
White Sox 596 16 4.50% 27.70% 0.128 0.242 0.237 0.323 0.246 46 10 -0.8 -0.9
Blue Jays 675 22 5.00% 27.10% 0.146 0.228 0.235 0.335 0.252 52 5.6 -1.1 -1.1
Marlins 644 10 6.80% 26.60% 0.088 0.249 0.249 0.28 0.235 42 9.7 -1.8 -2.0

I added WAR per 700 PA to make WAR a rate stat that was a reasonable facsimile of 1/8 of a team's production. The Cubs were 3rd in the league in catcher production, and that's primarily a function of having the best backup in baseball (who won't be returning) and a very competent starter. It's important to note that defensive metrics (fickle as they are) loved the tandem this year, so I'd expect that to sort itself out one way or another next year. However, it's not like defense was the only (or even primary) driver of Cub value last season; Cubs backstops contributed a .346 wOBA last season, 2nd in baseball.

First Base

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Orioles 696 53 10.50% 29.90% 0.335 0.33 0.362 0.614 0.41 160 -13.9 6.4 6.4
Diamondbacks 768 37 13.70% 21.10% 0.239 0.335 0.39 0.531 0.392 148 -6.6 6.2 5.7
Reds 739 24 18.30% 19.50% 0.182 0.355 0.429 0.481 0.394 152 -10.2 5.8 5.5
Braves 721 23 10.80% 20.10% 0.165 0.363 0.386 0.471 0.372 139 -10.3 4.5 4.4
Red Sox 821 32 11.60% 30.90% 0.224 0.373 0.361 0.494 0.371 132 -8.5 5.1 4.3
Giants 663 20 8.60% 21.40% 0.187 0.335 0.347 0.466 0.354 131 -5.6 4.1 4.3
Blue Jays 1155 59 11.70% 14.50% 0.235 0.281 0.365 0.514 0.378 139 -31.6 6 3.6
Rays 602 13 7.50% 13.00% 0.132 0.327 0.349 0.431 0.34 119 -4.9 2.7 3.1
Royals 683 17 7.50% 15.10% 0.145 0.335 0.352 0.446 0.348 118 -10.1 2.9 3.0
Dodgers 701 22 6.80% 15.30% 0.159 0.317 0.338 0.452 0.341 121 -7.8 2.5 2.5
Cardinals 973 30 7.20% 21.60% 0.157 0.345 0.345 0.444 0.346 123 -17.1 3.2 2.3
Tigers 712 25 10.50% 16.40% 0.178 0.307 0.362 0.457 0.358 125 -17.7 2.2 2.2
Athletics 841 37 9.30% 22.80% 0.203 0.301 0.335 0.465 0.348 123 -20.8 2.5 2.1
Angels 1159 51 8.70% 21.90% 0.198 0.269 0.309 0.44 0.323 107 -16.3 2.9 1.8
Cubs 690 23 11.00% 18.40% 0.186 0.258 0.323 0.419 0.325 102 -3.9 1.6 1.6
Indians 1018 37 11.80% 25.60% 0.17 0.287 0.328 0.404 0.324 107 -22.2 2.1 1.4
Mets 982 27 14.50% 26.40% 0.153 0.298 0.347 0.382 0.325 109 -23.4 1.4 1.0
Padres 1080 26 8.30% 21.70% 0.126 0.307 0.321 0.38 0.309 99 -17.5 1.4 0.9
Yankees 677 23 7.80% 24.20% 0.167 0.274 0.292 0.398 0.303 86 -6.3 0.4 0.4
Phillies 888 30 7.70% 24.20% 0.174 0.301 0.321 0.423 0.326 105 -19.6 0.5 0.4
Rangers 803 35 8.50% 24.40% 0.2 0.273 0.304 0.438 0.323 97 -16 0.4 0.3
Twins 1057 32 8.50% 22.40% 0.152 0.282 0.308 0.39 0.308 93 -19.1 0.5 0.3
Pirates 852 22 10.30% 19.20% 0.159 0.279 0.324 0.402 0.32 104 -20.3 0.4 0.3
Mariners 539 20 12.10% 23.40% 0.17 0.273 0.327 0.401 0.324 104 -14.2 0.1 0.1
Astros 1271 55 10.50% 33.90% 0.203 0.293 0.307 0.419 0.319 101 -39.5 -0.2 -0.1
Nationals 920 28 9.50% 23.70% 0.148 0.271 0.301 0.374 0.296 86 -21.8 -1.4 -1.1
White Sox 1157 46 10.90% 23.30% 0.166 0.266 0.317 0.396 0.315 94 -35.7 -2 -1.2
Marlins 715 10 9.00% 16.10% 0.103 0.265 0.309 0.333 0.283 76 -15.5 -1.6 -1.6
Rockies 746 16 6.80% 18.10% 0.13 0.28 0.297 0.374 0.296 70 -20.3 -2.8 -2.6
Brewers 932 31 5.00% 24.70% 0.148 0.247 0.256 0.359 0.268 64 -30.9 -4.6 -3.5

Here you find Rizzo squarely in the middle. If you're looking for a reason to be optimistic, I could point you to the .258 BABIP, second lowest in baseball this year. Given that Rizzo hits his fair share of LD (though it crashed from around 24% to around 19% last year), you wouldn't be dumb to think that'll climb next year. However, it doesn't quite work like that; Rizzo is fairly slow, and BABIPs don't normalize for hitters the way they do for pitchers. Instead, remember that Rizzo is still 24, and his whole age-24 season is still ahead of him. He was still league-average for first baseman this season despite his poor trinity numbers.

Second Base

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Yankees 688 27 9.60% 12.50% 0.201 0.326 0.382 0.514 0.383 141 2.5 6 6.1
Red Sox 737 9 10.00% 10.60% 0.112 0.325 0.369 0.41 0.344 113 13.4 5.3 5.0
Rays 879 17 9.40% 14.80% 0.127 0.303 0.343 0.397 0.327 110 10.4 5.7 4.5
Indians 681 17 11.50% 21.60% 0.166 0.341 0.362 0.446 0.353 127 -5.5 4.3 4.4
Cardinals 1144 16 8.50% 14.70% 0.142 0.32 0.347 0.423 0.337 117 -5.8 6.2 3.8
Angels 677 14 5.00% 19.80% 0.129 0.344 0.329 0.417 0.325 108 0.1 2.7 2.8
Diamondbacks 876 13 7.80% 14.80% 0.109 0.31 0.334 0.381 0.316 94 11.6 3.3 2.6
Tigers 781 11 5.50% 11.70% 0.104 0.306 0.32 0.384 0.31 91 7.2 2.8 2.5
Giants 805 4 7.10% 11.30% 0.083 0.314 0.333 0.364 0.309 100 0 2.7 2.3
Padres 768 29 6.80% 23.00% 0.171 0.276 0.295 0.409 0.308 98 0.4 2.5 2.3
Orioles 738 20 7.70% 18.40% 0.14 0.266 0.299 0.376 0.297 82 10.4 2.4 2.3
Pirates 756 20 7.10% 16.80% 0.149 0.268 0.313 0.389 0.31 98 0.5 2.4 2.2
Phillies 1162 29 6.80% 15.40% 0.146 0.291 0.323 0.409 0.321 102 -0.5 3.6 2.2
Mets 841 17 4.80% 14.60% 0.129 0.299 0.307 0.398 0.309 98 -7.4 2.6 2.2
Twins 829 18 7.70% 18.70% 0.135 0.279 0.305 0.375 0.302 89 1.4 2.3 1.9
Reds 818 18 6.00% 14.10% 0.121 0.271 0.3 0.371 0.292 81 13.1 2.2 1.9
Brewers 629 16 7.90% 23.40% 0.151 0.314 0.324 0.403 0.323 102 -7.2 1.6 1.8
Dodgers 1171 10 7.40% 16.70% 0.075 0.314 0.327 0.338 0.299 92 2.6 2.7 1.6
Astros 672 5 4.80% 12.60% 0.08 0.316 0.316 0.363 0.297 85 -0.7 1.3 1.4
Rangers 995 19 8.00% 13.90% 0.119 0.285 0.326 0.377 0.313 90 -4 1.6 1.1
Royals 804 6 7.00% 17.30% 0.066 0.288 0.296 0.306 0.269 64 9.5 1.2 1.0
Braves 679 22 12.80% 28.90% 0.16 0.257 0.312 0.359 0.302 90 -5 0.7 0.7
Rockies 963 10 5.70% 15.90% 0.086 0.312 0.311 0.354 0.293 69 7.6 0.7 0.5
Athletics 811 11 7.20% 16.30% 0.107 0.275 0.301 0.345 0.287 81 -5.6 0.2 0.2
Nationals 868 12 5.00% 17.30% 0.109 0.28 0.285 0.35 0.279 74 1.6 0.2 0.2
Mariners 971 16 8.90% 23.00% 0.111 0.289 0.299 0.34 0.286 77 -9 0.1 0.1
Marlins 698 13 5.30% 18.50% 0.114 0.273 0.291 0.348 0.283 75 -5.6 -0.5 -0.5
Cubs 647 8 6.30% 14.40% 0.09 0.224 0.258 0.292 0.243 45 14.2 -0.5 -0.5
White Sox 972 10 5.70% 13.80% 0.082 0.285 0.296 0.336 0.28 70 -5.6 -1 -0.7
Blue Jays 1038 17 6.70% 17.40% 0.105 0.268 0.286 0.338 0.277 69 -13.8 -2.1 -1.4

It would be hard to be much worse. It's even worse when you consider that his defense was the best in the league this year, according to defensive metrics. Seriously, look at that wRC+! It's 24 points lower than the next lowest mark. Darwin Barney makes Munenori Kawasaki look like Sadaharu Oh. This is a place the Cubs MUST upgrade if they want to be taken seriously next year. 

Shortstop

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Rockies 727 26 9.80% 15.00% 0.181 0.331 0.375 0.487 0.373 124 15 5.9 5.7
Nationals 664 20 6.60% 21.80% 0.174 0.337 0.332 0.456 0.342 117 11.8 5.2 5.5
Braves 658 17 6.10% 8.40% 0.149 0.247 0.296 0.396 0.303 91 31.6 4.7 5.0
Rays 586 9 9.70% 12.50% 0.109 0.283 0.333 0.367 0.312 100 17.6 4 4.8
Dodgers 982 25 8.10% 18.30% 0.142 0.302 0.327 0.404 0.321 107 20.4 6.4 4.6
Tigers 830 14 7.20% 19.30% 0.117 0.33 0.332 0.391 0.32 98 18.3 4.6 3.9
Brewers 623 12 4.00% 13.50% 0.129 0.326 0.329 0.423 0.329 107 5.3 3.4 3.8
Orioles 644 25 5.90% 11.30% 0.17 0.263 0.306 0.433 0.322 99 13.3 3.4 3.7
White Sox 674 6 3.90% 10.10% 0.096 0.309 0.313 0.38 0.304 86 12.7 3.1 3.2
Red Sox 843 16 9.00% 21.20% 0.15 0.335 0.342 0.423 0.335 107 3.1 3.8 3.2
Padres 636 7 8.20% 17.30% 0.097 0.33 0.34 0.372 0.316 104 -4.4 2.7 3.0
Blue Jays 708 11 9.30% 12.40% 0.111 0.297 0.342 0.381 0.322 100 1.7 3 3.0
Giants 570 10 7.50% 17.70% 0.118 0.289 0.31 0.366 0.297 91 10.4 2.3 2.8
Rangers 698 4 7.40% 13.90% 0.06 0.312 0.328 0.331 0.296 78 10.1 2.8 2.8
Athletics 852 19 7.30% 15.70% 0.146 0.298 0.323 0.411 0.322 105 -4.7 3 2.5
Diamondbacks 914 8 8.40% 15.30% 0.089 0.307 0.331 0.351 0.302 85 16 3 2.3
Reds 760 12 4.60% 15.10% 0.115 0.274 0.28 0.361 0.278 71 15.8 1.8 1.7
Pirates 730 13 5.30% 19.20% 0.121 0.286 0.289 0.362 0.284 79 10.9 1.6 1.5
Phillies 691 7 8.70% 14.00% 0.098 0.284 0.314 0.347 0.293 82 3.5 1.4 1.4
Twins 689 12 7.50% 23.80% 0.105 0.285 0.287 0.33 0.275 70 8.1 1.2 1.2
Royals 653 4 2.90% 13.00% 0.066 0.263 0.258 0.299 0.246 48 18 1 1.1
Angels 856 10 4.30% 13.90% 0.101 0.288 0.292 0.358 0.286 81 -5 1 0.8
Indians 956 23 5.20% 16.20% 0.142 0.271 0.292 0.388 0.298 89 -9.8 0.9 0.7
Mariners 754 11 6.90% 19.90% 0.103 0.265 0.277 0.324 0.268 65 4.8 0.1 0.1
Mets 819 4 7.90% 16.00% 0.07 0.276 0.296 0.302 0.266 68 3.3 -0.1 -0.1
Cubs 705 10 4.30% 18.30% 0.102 0.29 0.284 0.347 0.28 70 4 -0.1 -0.1
Cardinals 806 6 6.90% 18.20% 0.088 0.273 0.282 0.314 0.26 63 4 -0.3 -0.3
Yankees 912 8 6.10% 20.80% 0.08 0.283 0.283 0.308 0.264 60 -7.9 -1.6 -1.2
Astros 754 8 6.90% 22.50% 0.084 0.296 0.287 0.316 0.27 67 -11.5 -1.7 -1.6
Marlins 713 5 5.00% 17.70% 0.079 0.271 0.269 0.305 0.256 56 -7 -2.6 -2.6

Cubs are terrible here as well, but the light at the end of the tunnel is that Starlin Castro has shown that he can at least approximate a good shortstop at some points of his career. If you believe Castro is the 2013 model, then you probably need to upgrade here as well (and there just so happens to be this guy in the minors who might be able to do the job). 

Third Base

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Athletics 668 24 11.40% 16.50% 0.199 0.333 0.384 0.499 0.384 148 12.1 7.7 8.1
Rays 697 32 10.20% 23.40% 0.23 0.313 0.344 0.499 0.361 134 15.4 6.7 6.7
Orioles 710 14 4.10% 15.90% 0.148 0.322 0.314 0.432 0.325 101 33.6 6.2 6.1
Tigers 888 45 12.50% 14.30% 0.227 0.327 0.404 0.541 0.405 157 -11.9 7.6 6.0
Mets 1054 24 10.20% 18.80% 0.154 0.338 0.361 0.44 0.35 127 8.7 7.8 5.2
Rangers 720 30 7.20% 11.70% 0.19 0.318 0.365 0.499 0.372 131 -0.9 5 4.9
Padres 611 13 11.00% 24.10% 0.147 0.314 0.34 0.392 0.324 109 10.1 3.4 3.9
Mariners 695 22 9.80% 17.60% 0.166 0.29 0.338 0.426 0.337 113 -1.3 3.4 3.4
Dodgers 1168 17 7.10% 16.70% 0.1 0.281 0.3 0.343 0.285 82 35.5 5.1 3.1
Cubs 769 32 10.90% 23.40% 0.199 0.243 0.312 0.413 0.319 98 7.9 3.2 2.9
Braves 818 20 5.70% 23.00% 0.139 0.369 0.337 0.435 0.337 115 -0.5 3.4 2.9
Reds 762 20 9.10% 21.40% 0.152 0.273 0.315 0.382 0.31 94 12.4 3.1 2.8
Pirates 724 37 6.90% 30.10% 0.211 0.272 0.283 0.436 0.31 97 4.4 2.7 2.6
Rockies 638 11 4.70% 16.30% 0.13 0.301 0.298 0.393 0.302 75 19.3 2.1 2.3
Diamondbacks 1005 26 7.60% 12.10% 0.156 0.294 0.333 0.434 0.333 107 -0.6 3.3 2.3
Nationals 778 30 8.70% 20.30% 0.179 0.298 0.328 0.441 0.337 114 -12.7 2.5 2.2
Giants 931 15 6.10% 14.60% 0.106 0.302 0.317 0.375 0.303 95 2.6 2.6 2.0
Angels 688 8 7.40% 16.00% 0.083 0.287 0.308 0.332 0.285 81 7.6 1.3 1.3
Astros 589 21 5.10% 16.30% 0.162 0.254 0.286 0.403 0.301 89 -0.2 1 1.2
Royals 728 15 5.80% 15.40% 0.118 0.265 0.288 0.358 0.285 75 8.1 0.9 0.9
Yankees 1041 20 7.20% 25.60% 0.11 0.285 0.29 0.33 0.279 69 9.1 0.7 0.5
Indians 1094 35 6.90% 20.20% 0.146 0.258 0.286 0.376 0.292 85 -16.5 0.3 0.2
Red Sox 844 22 5.80% 20.50% 0.141 0.292 0.3 0.392 0.303 85 -12.5 0 0.0
Marlins 871 6 6.00% 14.40% 0.066 0.293 0.308 0.32 0.282 75 -2.8 -0.1 -0.1
Phillies 960 20 7.60% 18.50% 0.131 0.298 0.313 0.385 0.306 91 -17.3 -0.4 -0.3
Brewers 1130 27 5.70% 17.50% 0.124 0.263 0.284 0.358 0.283 75 -2.5 -0.7 -0.4
Blue Jays 1081 23 7.90% 14.40% 0.122 0.265 0.306 0.364 0.298 83 -19.3 -0.7 -0.5
Twins 907 17 6.40% 20.00% 0.108 0.292 0.298 0.353 0.289 80 -10.4 -0.6 -0.5
White Sox 1004 19 6.30% 14.80% 0.104 0.274 0.294 0.352 0.284 72 -4.1 -0.8 -0.6
Cardinals 949 14 7.80% 19.30% 0.116 0.293 0.312 0.359 0.297 89 -25 -0.9 -0.7

 Right Field

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Giants 687 27 7.60% 16.70% 0.2 0.308 0.339 0.483 0.356 133 -1.9 5.4 5.5
Red Sox 1077 28 7.10% 15.80% 0.152 0.339 0.371 0.453 0.362 126 1.2 7.8 5.1
Diamondbacks 1014 18 7.20% 14.80% 0.135 0.304 0.326 0.406 0.321 98 34.9 6.4 4.4
Nationals 718 28 10.40% 20.90% 0.186 0.325 0.36 0.466 0.361 130 -4.7 4.5 4.4
Dodgers 1175 39 10.00% 20.00% 0.183 0.327 0.363 0.463 0.358 133 -4.4 7.3 4.3
Reds 697 30 9.00% 26.50% 0.216 0.322 0.329 0.478 0.344 117 2.8 4.1 4.1
Blue Jays 1010 35 10.30% 17.80% 0.184 0.292 0.343 0.447 0.346 117 -9.6 5.7 4.0
Padres 1343 40 6.90% 21.40% 0.16 0.316 0.32 0.426 0.325 110 3.6 7.2 3.8
Braves 1492 45 10.60% 22.90% 0.164 0.313 0.344 0.419 0.337 115 -7 7.7 3.6
Rays 854 31 10.80% 20.80% 0.184 0.298 0.34 0.445 0.341 120 -10.1 4.2 3.4
Marlins 826 27 11.00% 24.80% 0.182 0.317 0.341 0.435 0.34 116 -3.2 4 3.4
Indians 799 27 9.90% 27.50% 0.177 0.326 0.332 0.429 0.334 114 -8.7 3.8 3.3
Athletics 485 12 10.10% 20.00% 0.141 0.25 0.298 0.359 0.292 84 10 2.2 3.2
Royals 1081 17 5.70% 20.90% 0.124 0.311 0.304 0.379 0.299 85 26.6 4.9 3.2
Rangers 710 33 6.60% 21.10% 0.207 0.302 0.323 0.478 0.347 113 -6.8 2.9 2.9
Tigers 652 17 4.00% 17.30% 0.162 0.344 0.334 0.465 0.346 117 -10.5 2.5 2.7
Mets 847 29 7.00% 25.90% 0.179 0.311 0.313 0.43 0.325 109 -8.7 2.9 2.4
Cardinals 800 26 8.00% 14.80% 0.164 0.302 0.337 0.446 0.341 119 -19.2 2.5 2.2
Angels 994 31 7.90% 24.40% 0.171 0.306 0.312 0.423 0.32 104 -12.7 3.1 2.2
Brewers 674 8 8.20% 5.90% 0.084 0.295 0.356 0.37 0.326 104 -3.5 1.7 1.8
Rockies 978 27 6.50% 18.60% 0.171 0.362 0.357 0.48 0.364 118 -31.8 2.4 1.7
White Sox 883 22 6.80% 22.10% 0.132 0.322 0.316 0.397 0.314 93 -14.9 1.3 1.0
Cubs 926 31 6.60% 19.00% 0.174 0.262 0.293 0.412 0.307 89 -11.8 0.6 0.5
Pirates 1382 35 6.50% 20.30% 0.155 0.296 0.305 0.407 0.312 99 -27.7 0.8 0.4
Yankees 671 11 5.10% 13.00% 0.093 0.275 0.292 0.343 0.28 70 -0.5 0.2 0.2
Orioles 700 10 7.90% 10.90% 0.085 0.291 0.329 0.356 0.304 87 -14.1 -0.1 -0.1
Twins 1587 40 8.10% 24.70% 0.14 0.298 0.303 0.378 0.301 88 -36.3 -1 -0.4
Mariners 1062 39 6.30% 22.50% 0.161 0.277 0.29 0.4 0.302 89 -38.9 -2.1 -1.4
Astros 1023 17 5.80% 27.10% 0.114 0.316 0.284 0.353 0.282 75 -26.1 -2.1 -1.4
Phillies 1229 37 7.20% 26.60% 0.153 0.284 0.292 0.379 0.297 85 -39.3 -2.8 -1.6

Here's another problem area for the Cubs, and I think it's one that not many people truly realize. Nate Schierholtz was really good at the beginning of the year, but his OPS fell from .825 in the first half to .703 in the second. Spelling him was 5 pretty worthless replacements in Darnell McDonald, Cole Gillespie, Julio Borbon, Dave Sappelt, and Scott Hairston. None of those 5 have a real future with this team in any meaningful capacity, and the Cubs will desperately need an upgrade at RF to be competitive next year. 

Center Field

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Angels 912 30 13.20% 19.60% 0.204 0.369 0.411 0.516 0.4 160 3.7 11.5 8.8
Pirates 705 21 11.30% 16.20% 0.183 0.349 0.394 0.492 0.383 148 6.8 7.7 7.6
Brewers 927 28 6.70% 22.20% 0.182 0.309 0.317 0.44 0.33 107 28 7.6 5.7
Red Sox 752 13 7.70% 16.60% 0.134 0.335 0.348 0.421 0.338 109 9.9 6 5.6
Reds 734 21 15.50% 18.70% 0.175 0.343 0.423 0.463 0.393 151 -12.6 5.8 5.5
Royals 681 6 7.90% 19.80% 0.101 0.312 0.316 0.355 0.297 83 30.8 5.1 5.2
Blue Jays 611 24 6.90% 28.20% 0.206 0.35 0.325 0.477 0.349 118 8 4.5 5.2
Rangers 837 10 6.80% 18.50% 0.113 0.323 0.331 0.38 0.316 92 25.6 6.1 5.1
Orioles 699 33 3.60% 19.70% 0.205 0.313 0.316 0.489 0.347 117 -7.6 3.8 3.8
Yankees 854 15 9.30% 23.00% 0.153 0.332 0.336 0.413 0.33 105 5.6 4.6 3.8
Giants 1213 11 8.50% 17.60% 0.099 0.317 0.326 0.364 0.306 98 23.3 6.5 3.8
Nationals 710 5 6.60% 12.30% 0.1 0.305 0.322 0.37 0.307 93 13.1 3.3 3.3
Athletics 968 34 10.00% 16.80% 0.18 0.251 0.312 0.415 0.317 102 -2.6 4.2 3.0
Tigers 702 14 8.00% 21.40% 0.143 0.328 0.329 0.411 0.326 103 -5.5 2.8 2.8
Diamondbacks 813 11 7.10% 17.20% 0.123 0.31 0.322 0.386 0.313 93 5.7 3.2 2.8
Cubs 1134 25 7.40% 19.80% 0.145 0.308 0.319 0.403 0.319 98 10.8 4.4 2.7
Rays 802 16 10.10% 17.80% 0.138 0.276 0.318 0.377 0.309 98 -5.4 2.9 2.5
Cardinals 799 9 9.40% 15.00% 0.09 0.311 0.349 0.36 0.316 102 -1.7 2.8 2.5
Dodgers 843 18 9.80% 20.30% 0.142 0.327 0.349 0.413 0.332 114 -17.9 2.5 2.1
Indians 1056 16 8.00% 25.90% 0.111 0.33 0.311 0.36 0.298 89 -5.1 2.8 1.9
Mets 870 16 5.90% 25.20% 0.122 0.274 0.266 0.337 0.265 68 22.2 2.3 1.9
White Sox 1010 24 7.60% 24.30% 0.131 0.315 0.313 0.382 0.308 89 -2.8 2.2 1.5
Marlins 1095 23 7.00% 22.00% 0.134 0.289 0.296 0.37 0.295 84 0.5 1.8 1.2
Astros 884 14 6.30% 27.10% 0.111 0.338 0.307 0.36 0.298 86 -3.9 1.4 1.1
Padres 1004 28 5.80% 19.90% 0.155 0.284 0.293 0.401 0.302 94 -16.1 1.4 1.0
Rockies 1221 27 8.40% 20.90% 0.15 0.319 0.33 0.413 0.327 92 -18.9 1.6 0.9
Mariners 1407 30 7.90% 20.30% 0.127 0.299 0.309 0.378 0.303 89 -24.1 0.9 0.4
Braves 847 13 9.30% 30.20% 0.102 0.303 0.294 0.315 0.275 71 3 0.5 0.4
Twins 844 13 7.70% 26.10% 0.111 0.293 0.286 0.333 0.277 71 -4.5 -0.4 -0.3
Phillies 1000 13 5.80% 19.30% 0.098 0.304 0.3 0.349 0.288 79 -19.9 -1.2 -0.8

The Cubs are middle of the pack here, but they lost their primary CF in a trade last year (DeJesus). Junior Lake will get every chance to catch on here (or LF), and so will Ryan Sweeney. Bogusevic has a chance to be a 5th OF type as well, should he stay. I'd hope the Cubs move on to someone else, but it wouldn't break my heart to see him in a Cubs uniform. 

Left Field

Team PA HR BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Def WAR WAR/700
Angels 1298 31 11.00% 16.90% 0.163 0.348 0.382 0.466 0.369 138 -4.9 11.2 6.0
Rockies 753 33 8.10% 24.20% 0.237 0.347 0.346 0.526 0.374 125 2.3 5.8 5.4
Pirates 1044 21 5.20% 21.60% 0.15 0.339 0.332 0.424 0.333 113 -5.3 5.1 3.4
Royals 700 20 7.40% 20.10% 0.156 0.31 0.327 0.422 0.326 103 1.6 3.4 3.4
Rangers 1029 26 8.70% 16.80% 0.15 0.282 0.324 0.4 0.32 95 12.9 4.5 3.1
Cardinals 898 24 11.50% 16.10% 0.144 0.298 0.357 0.411 0.339 118 -11.5 3.9 3.0
Brewers 907 29 9.30% 19.40% 0.185 0.288 0.328 0.437 0.333 109 -8.9 3.2 2.5
Cubs 970 31 5.60% 22.90% 0.17 0.312 0.307 0.43 0.321 99 3.6 3.4 2.5
Giants 1232 10 8.40% 19.50% 0.083 0.302 0.308 0.328 0.283 82 25.2 4.3 2.4
Red Sox 1261 38 10.10% 22.40% 0.172 0.338 0.362 0.45 0.356 121 -35.5 4.3 2.4
Braves 1292 49 8.80% 23.70% 0.184 0.299 0.325 0.435 0.332 111 -23.3 4 2.2
Rays 1445 44 9.70% 20.80% 0.156 0.268 0.312 0.389 0.31 99 -13.2 3.9 1.9
Padres 1668 42 8.20% 19.90% 0.137 0.293 0.318 0.387 0.312 101 -10.8 4.5 1.9
Athletics 1014 34 7.70% 23.40% 0.171 0.285 0.303 0.41 0.311 97 -7.2 2.7 1.9
Indians 634 10 7.10% 12.10% 0.11 0.305 0.333 0.39 0.317 102 -10.4 1.6 1.8
Tigers 944 22 10.00% 18.00% 0.121 0.282 0.324 0.366 0.308 90 0.9 2.3 1.7
Phillies 569 27 7.20% 18.60% 0.212 0.287 0.32 0.48 0.344 118 -17.4 1.3 1.6
Orioles 1023 25 8.10% 19.40% 0.139 0.281 0.308 0.381 0.304 87 -7.7 2.2 1.5
Yankees 841 29 7.00% 19.60% 0.151 0.27 0.296 0.393 0.303 86 -1.8 1.2 1.0
Nationals 1270 32 7.80% 20.60% 0.144 0.285 0.306 0.386 0.304 91 -8.9 1.7 0.9
White Sox 1219 31 6.50% 21.90% 0.142 0.311 0.31 0.4 0.312 92 -14.8 1.5 0.9
Mets 1293 28 10.40% 22.30% 0.129 0.275 0.314 0.353 0.299 91 -23.6 1.2 0.6
Reds 898 19 7.20% 21.30% 0.124 0.296 0.306 0.368 0.299 86 -2.8 0.8 0.6
Dodgers 1249 18 7.30% 15.00% 0.108 0.289 0.314 0.362 0.301 93 -16.9 1 0.6
Marlins 867 6 7.60% 17.00% 0.081 0.309 0.318 0.339 0.294 83 -15.2 0.3 0.2
Blue Jays 995 14 5.30% 18.10% 0.109 0.309 0.304 0.37 0.298 84 -20.6 0 0.0
Mariners 732 40 9.30% 26.00% 0.227 0.26 0.304 0.458 0.332 109 -31.2 -0.2 -0.2
Twins 1331 32 9.40% 28.80% 0.138 0.305 0.31 0.363 0.301 88 -26.9 -0.7 -0.4
Diamondbacks 943 16 7.40% 19.90% 0.115 0.299 0.311 0.364 0.299 83 -15.3 -0.6 -0.4
Astros 1545 46 8.40% 29.80% 0.155 0.313 0.301 0.389 0.305 91 -50.5 -1.8 -0.8

We can thank Alfonso Soriano for his contributions to the team. That being said, Lake provided more value in fewer ABs. He was on pace for around 2.7 WAR. 

The average outfield last year was 7.3 WAR. Right now, only Lake, Schierholtz, and Sweeney are definitively penciled in to the outfield next year, and between the 3, you've got maybe 4 WAR (Lake 1.5, Schierholtz 1.3, Sweeney 1.2 are my guesses). I imagine that if the Cubs sign Ellsbury and/or Choo, they can be at least average. For instance, let's say they sign Ellsbury and put him at CF full time. He'll give around 3 WAR. You then put Lake at LF (1.5 WAR), and platoon Schierholtz and fungible righty on short-term deal – might I suggest Andres Torres? for 1.2 and 0.6 WAR respectively. Sweeney is the 4th OF that gives you another 1.2 WAR or so, and you've got roughly 7.5 WAR (and there's upside to Lake at least, and maybe Sweeney, too). 

Clearly, we can identify the main problems with this team offensively as being up the middle of the infield, with a weaker-than-average RF as well. Luckily for the Cubs, these are problems that they are well equiped to solve. Barney never has to start again for the Cubs. Valbuena can play 2B with Olt at 3B. If that doesn't float your boat, Watkins can play 2B and Barney can be the UTIL. If you don't like that, Alcantara can play 2B in an aggressive promotion. If you don't like that, I can't help you. Castro will either improve or he'll be jettisoned to make room for Baez whenever he gets up (or Alcantara, for that matter. I could see an Olt-Alcantara-Watkins/Valbuena-Rizzo infield pretty easily). If you're willing to spend, there are at least 5 pretty substantial upgrades in the OF to be had (some more risky then others) in Ellsbury, Choo, Beltran, Cruz, and Granderson. If you locked up Choo for something in the realm of 5/90, and you started an infield configuration that didn't include Barney, and Castro was even 2012-esque, it's not hard to imagine the Cubs' offense as league average.

Hey, it's baby steps.

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  1. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ sitrick:
    His son’s? (dying laughing)

    Obliquely. I made a big long rambly thing about how my son was getting his hair cut for the first time and asking for opinions about what style we should go with and so on and so forth (I don’t have any kids).

    I think I have a screenshot of it somewhere from the three seconds it was up before he deleted it.

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  2. mikeakaleroy

    I have not (as of yet) been banned. Of course I have made all of 3 visits to his website. It’s on my 2014 to dos. My 2013 was to get blocked on twitter by the Hobbit. Mission Accomplished. The shitty part is that I have no idea what I said to earn a block…

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  7. sitrick

    Found it:

    [img]http://i426.photobucket.com/albums/pp342/sitrick2/Yellon.jpg[/img]

    Also found this. I’m fucking hilarious.

    [img]http://i426.photobucket.com/albums/pp342/sitrick2/Yellon3.jpg[/img]

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