If you read Baseball Prospectus, you probably know who Jason "Professor" Parks is. Parks had a chat yesterday that was very interesting for Cubs fans, and the most interesting question would be this one:
BTH524 (Pennsylvania): Where do you project the top 2013 draft picks (Kris Bryant, Mark Appel, etc.) to be slotted in your top prospect list? With the understanding that you may change your mind, of course!
Jason Parks: Bryant could/should be in the top ten in the game. He's a polished offensive monster that should be at the highest level at some point in 2014. Appel is also a polished collegiate talent that will move quickly, but I'm not as high on his ceiling as some and I don't see him as a future #1 type. He will be in the top 25, but not the top 10.
Say what you will about Parks (and he has his share of haters, just ask Kyle on the Bleacher Nation boards), but that's an intriguing sign about Bryant. Baez is right around the Top 10 of most boards.
For the purposes of this article, I'm going to assume the relative position of the Cubs' top prospects. If any of them seem outlandish, they might well be. I'm using a rough guide backed up by at least a cursory glance at the prospect wonks' lists.
Baez 10
Bryant 10
Almora 20
Soler 30
Edwards 50
Alcantara 80
Johnson 100
That's an impressive list, and in fact would be impressive if you took any two names off the list! Seriously, remove Baez and Bryant and you still have an organization that is overrepresented in the Top 100, that is weighted towards the top (though not the very top), and is deeper than the average organization too (our 30th best prospect actually has a meaningful chance to make the majors for at least a half of a season, which isn't normally true).
Cubs fans, unfortunately, have seen this sort of top prospect list before. The year was 2002, and it looks awfully similar to 2013.
Mark Prior 2 (BA, which I'll use for all of these)
Juan Cruz 6
Hee Seop Choi 40
David Kelton 45
Bobby Hill 48
Nic Jackson 68
Carlos Zambrano 80
Let's run through each of the 7 briefly:
Mark Prior: was the best pitcher the Cubs had in the past 20 years not named Maddux. Freak Injuries and a tough throwing motion both took turns derailing his career, which isn't 100% over (but for all intents and purposes, it is).
Juan Cruz: Injuries and ineffectiveness de-railed his Cubs career, though he eventually caught on as a high-impact reliever for a few other teams.
Hee Seop Choi: traded for Derrek Lee, who has awesome as a Cub. He floundered after a concussion in 2006, though was relatively effective in spurts with the Marlins and Dodgers. Probably led to DePodesta's firing in LA, though Jim Tracy did him no favors.
David Kelton: Kelton literally only had one great season (2001 in AA), and was forgetable the rest of his career (including a repeat of AA in 2002 for no reason). He only has 251 PA the year he broke out, so next time someone tries to use a small sample size to rationalize something, think of David Kelton, please.
Bobby Hill: Part of the trade that landed Aramis Ramirez. Like Kelton, rode a small sample size to prospecthood, and it weared off as soon as he was traded.
Nic Jackson: Never made it to the bigs, one of 12 on the list not to do so. Had a nice year in A+, was injured the next year, and injuries and strikeouts ended his career (though he still soldiers on in the Indy Leagues).
Carlos Zambrano: Ended up being pretty great.
So, we look at the 2002 list and are sad at first; actually, the Cubs made out like BANDITS. They turned 2 assets into Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and another one of the 7 was one of the best pitchers on the best Cubs team of my lifetime. Another one was incredible until a pair of injuries (Dusty Baker, Brad Hawpe), sunk his career. That stuff happens.
More important is the fact that these lists have gotten much better as time has gone on. In 2002, I'd say 7 of the top 20 players had (or are having) average or better-than-average careers (Beckett, Pena, Mauer, Teixiera, Nick Johnson, Hamilton, Phillips). You could debate Prior and Cruz either way. In 2008, I count 10 (Bruce, Longoria, Buchholz, Rasmus, Kershaw, Price, Wieters, Ellsbury, McCutchen, Andrus). Even the worst of the Top 20 are still actual MLB players (well, maybe not Brandon Wood). In 2009, you have Wieters, Price, Rasmus, Heyward, Bumgarner, Feliz, Alvarez, Posey, Stanton, all in the top 16. Comparisons from 2002 to now just don't make that much sense, because the way team's (and scouts) evaluate talent is demonstrably better. Also worth noting: the 2008 Top 100 list only had 6 players that never made it to the bigs (and one, Deolis Guerra, could still make it and was almost a Rule V last year). The 2007 list had 5. The 2006 list had 6.
Am I saying that the top prospects on the Cubs are all likely to hit? No, I don't believe that. I think I'm probably more pessimistic than the average fan about their chances. I do think they'll turn out in greater numbers than those who just point to 2002 think (and also, 2002 wasn't as bad as you might think at first blush).
Comments
Good little article. I was bored at work the other day and also was counting how many top 100 guys on BA’s list never make it and the number is staggeringly low.
Maybe not all those guys are superstars but if Baez and Bryant are and Soler and Almora are either solid players that can play or be used as currency well that works too.
I would argue Choi and Hill were great prospects. They brought back high impact talent.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
also i would start almora, soler, and bryant at AA
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I think the Cubs have two in the top 10, two in the 40-50 range and two in the 75-100 range (Alcantara and Johnson). I think that’s what we’ll see with Baseball America anyway. No way is Edwards a top 100 IMO. I doubt I’d even have in the top 50 among pitchers.
dmick89Quote Reply
I would be shocked if edwards misses any top 100 list. I think he will be in a lot of top 50’s
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Agreed. I enjoy bringing up the early 2000s Cubs prospect lists not to show that we’ll get nothing for this current amazing farm system, just to remind people that this isn’t the first time we’ve had this (although I’m close to saying the current farm is a bit better) and that it isn’t an easy path from this to the sort of dominant run that we all envision.
That farm system led to three division titles in a six year span, and that ain’t bad. The division now is much harder than it was in the mid-2000s and projects to continue to be so, but that sort of run with three or four good seasons out of six is a good floor for what we’re looking at once we’re done being awful every year.
KyleQuote Reply
My favorite part of that chat was the veiled shots at keith law.
sitrickQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Prepare for insta-shock. I think he’s going to miss a lot more lists than you think he will and if he does end up making it he’s back end. (80-100) more than anywhere near 50. Except apparently by Jason Parks who is new to the writing but I didn’t read him this year. Kevin Goldstein is missed at BP.
2883Quote Reply
2883 wrote:
Parks was saying in the chat that opinions on Edwards come down to the people who’ve put eyes on him and the people who haven’t. The people with personal experience with him seem pretty universally convinced he’ll never add the weight he needs, and slot him in accordingly. The guys that haven’t tend to be more optimistic. Take that for whatever you will. The Cubs are apparently trying everything they can to bulk him up this offseason, so I get the feeling spring training will be pretty revealing.
sitrickQuote Reply
I can’t believe it’s already happening (though I shouldn’t be suprised), but the “Clowney is overrated” talk is here. “He takes plays off.” “I like [insert player name] better.” Shut the fuck up. He’s Reggie White. He’s the best prospect not named Luck in the last…decade or so? The only thing that’ll keep him from going No. 1 overall is the abundance of potential franchise QBs.
Speaking of, this is shaping up to definitely be the year to take a QB. I’d spend a 1 on Bridgewater, Mariota, Hundley and Boyd for sure. I’d give up a day-2 pick at least for Mettenberger, Manziel, Tom Savage (Pitt), Aaron Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo (E. Illinois) and Stephen Morris.
By the way, that’s only a list of the QBs I’d be good with starting for my team next season. That’s not even including guys like Carr, Jeff Matthews, Bryn Renner and a few others that are good developmental guys.
I think there will be an early run on the top-tier guys, but then I think you’ll see a few teams like SF (Garoppolo), CHI (Murray), NE (Savage) use an earlier pick than you’d think on a QB.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Omar LittleQuote Reply
Kyle wrote:
Omar LittleQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
Omar LittleQuote Reply
Re Edwards-
All I can point to is the fact that John Manuel had Edwards as one the top 2 or 3 pitching prospects in baseball last season (with a hard floor of the 5-7 range). Keith Law was similarly effusive thrilled with his work. Yes, Parks has his issues with Edwards (and yes, Parks know the Rangers’ system very well). I still think he hits many, many lists and BA might have him quite a bit HIGHER than 50 fwiw. I don’t think he’ll ever add the weight and is therefore probably a reliever, but you go forward with Edwards as a starter until you can’t anymore, and they aren’t close to that point yet.
MylesQuote Reply
As the resident clowney expert here i can assure you he isnt taking plays off. He is being doubled and chipped every play. They are running opposite way etc.
Anyone else annoyed with the buzzwords going on in scouting community. All this “want” “rig” “guy” shit is incredibly lazy to me.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Serious question does he need to add weight? If his arm is fine isnt that all that matters?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
The GUY shit has bugged me from day one. The Rig/Want/Slack stuff was funny to me at first, mostly because I think Parks is a pretty funny and likable guy. But now they’re making T-Shirts and it feels like less of a joke and more like branding, which I don’t care for and makes me kinda sad.
sitrickQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
There’s exceptions to every rule, but more often than not successful, 200 IP rubber-armed workhorses don’t tend to be built like hipsters.
The hope with Edwards at this point is either that he can add the weight or he’s a lincecum type that can be successful and healthy despite the physical disadvantages.
sitrickQuote Reply
Yeah, I really liked Parks at first, but his act wears very thin very quick. I liked Goldstein more on Up and In, and I like Ferrin more on Fringe Average. I’m not saying he isn’t knowledgeable, but it does seem like he’s more interested in his brand than actually giving information to the public.
MylesQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
For every Tim Lincecum, there’s 10 not-Tim Lincecums.
That analogy isnt’ that great.
MylesQuote Reply
Just for fun (for me), I’m doing a quick 4-round mock for SF. Let me know if you want me to do your team. btw, it’s still too early to do a big board, so I’m using nfldraftscout’s rankings:
1. Stephon Tuitt, DE, ND: Bigger needs, but this guy was made to be a 5-technique in the NFL.
2a. Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida: Purifoy was the guy everyone talked about, but Roberson is the guy that stands out on Saturdays.
2b. Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers: Ideal fit at a position of need.
3a. Hronis Grasu, C, Oregon: OL depth. No other true centers on the roster.
3b. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE/OLB, Texas: Aldon Smith’s uncertainty leads to this pick.
4a. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois: No way he lasts this long, but he’s available on nfldraftscout. Another perfect fit, imo.
4b. Mike Davis, WR, Texas: The deep threat this offense needs to get going.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ Myles:
(dying laughing), went back and edited to specifically mention Lincecum. Can’t think of anyone else that slight that hasn’t been fragile as hell.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Omar Little:
How ’bout the Vikings?
sitrickQuote Reply
I know the odds are against him But he has maintained his velocity in games doesnt miss starts etc. The only thing that concerns me is the lack of IP. But i have to believe there is a reason they are doing that with him.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Absolutely. Every opposing offensive game plan I’ve seen has been 100 percent geared toward neutralizing him. He can play in any scheme, cover any gap(s) and handle any assignment along the DL.
It will be an interesting year, because there are about seven guys with No. 1-overall ability. The only players that should go ahead of Clowney, though, are QBs.
As of right now, it looks like the top 5 will consist of JAX, NYG, MIN, WAS and TB. I’d say the top 5 right now would be:
1. JAX – Bridgewater
2. NYG – Clowney: How perfect for them. It’s like IND failing and getting Luck when they needed him)
3. TB – Mariota
4. MIN – Hundley
5. STL (from WAS) – Matthews
Manziel to Houston could be interesting.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
To be honest i am scared to see what happens when Manziel ends up with Philly. It will 100% happen and it will be amazing to watch. He committed to play QB for Chip at orgon before decommiting and he is perfect for chip.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
I haven’t seen much of them, so I’m basing this mostly on what I saw last season.
1. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA: I think this team is basically a QB away from being competitive. With Peterson in the backfield, it won’t take much. Hundley is a legit prospect having a great season at the right time. I personally prefer Boyd, but Hundely’s size will likely move him up a notch.
2. Jordan Matthews, WR, Vandy: Give Hundley a big, physical WR to go with Patterson and Rudolph. Lache Seastrunk could be an option here (Harvin light).
3a. Travis Swanson, C, Arkansas: I think the interior OL needs an upgrade.
3b. Ahmad Dixon, S, Baylor: I like the CBs on your roster. They’re young and should improve over this season. I’d upgrade the S spot, though. Dixon is a hell of an athletic player.
Omar LittleQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I don’t necessarily think it’s that they couldn’t force him into a starter role if they really wanted to, but which is a better use of his abilities? Making anywhere from 15-25 starts a year and an innings ceiling of 150 IP or so in his best season with an annual trip to the DL and likely a couple of elbow (or worse, shoulder) surgeries mixed in, or making him a shutdown closer that’ll hopefully be reliably on the field when you need him?
Not that his fate is sealed one way or the other; they’ll keep him a starter as long as they can or as long as they feel like it’s prudent, but most pitchers need a sturdy frame to hold up to the rigors of making 30-35 starts a season and he just doesn’t have it right now. Heck, pitchers that DO have the weight and frame have trouble holding up. It’ll be a big challenge for him to prove he can do it.
sitrickQuote Reply
I think you can get BMI’s from the data here: http://seanlahman.com/baseball-archive/statistics/
If you really want to see who might compare to CJ. As for me, time for a 5-hr drive…ugh.
SVBQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Trust me i agree with you he would be an outlier. But i dont think that means we should jsut throw him in the pen.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
FWIW: Juan Cruz (the one mentioned above) 6’2″ 170# (B-ref. Not sure if that is current weight or debut weight, not that it matters too much)
CJ Edwards: 6’2″ 155#
SVBQuote Reply
Juan cruz was dope. He had control issues thought that CJ doesnt seem to have
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I agree, but I also think it means we should lower our expectations.
As for shutdown closer, that’s something that a gazillion prospects each year get labeled. Take two prospects. One is thought to be a future superstar and the other is shutdown closer. The superstar prospect is far more likely to become the superstar than the other guy is of becoming an elite closer.
I kind of wish we’d stop referring to pitching prospects as being possible elite closers if the whole starting gig doesn’t work out.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
FWIW, that’s not me pulling something out of my ass, the last BP eyewitness scouting report I saw gave him an OFP of a 70 bullpen guy. I think that reflects that people love the stuff, makeup, command….everything except the body.
sitrickQuote Reply
Omar Little wrote:
Would love it if you’re right. Josh Freeman isn’t an answer. I kinda hope they draft another Ponder just for comedy’s sake.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I know. I see those guys say that stuff all the time and I just shake my head. There are just so few elite closers that it shouldn’t even be thrown around. They miss on that more than anything else. It’s like a fall back option for a really good starter who either has injury problems or durability issues. Every time. And every time they’re wrong.
dmick89Quote Reply
To be clear, I wasn’t picking on Sitrick who said that. It’s just become one of those things those scouting guys throw around to make themselves sound smart, but it really makes them look as though they have little understanding of how many elite closers the game has ever had. It’s something we hear so often that it cannot be true. I would bet there are probably about 30 to 50 pitchers who those guys think will become, at worst, shutdown closers. Any given year. They’re wrong more about that than anything else.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think the assumption is generally that if a guy is a good enough starter to even come close to the majors, that he can probably be a successful bullpen guy just because it’s easier to toss an inning than it is to toss 6-8.
There’s also the issue of what you consider “shutdown”. Was 2010 Marmol a shutdown closer? I don’t know. Borderline. And I think that’s the thought process with a lot of guys. If you have a power arm and command issues, you can probably be an elite closer for a couple of years because it’ll take that much longer for the league to figure out you’re throwing junk.
Or you can be cynical about it, and say that prospect rankers are in the business of selling optimism (who wants to read a publication that says their favorite team has the worst farm in the league, or whose number one prospect is a likely bench bat?) and they put closer futures on failed starters because it softens the blow of a guy going from heralded prospect to Rich Hill.
sitrickQuote Reply
Really though, who has ever been a truly “elite” closer other than Rivera? Seems like even the best of the rest are good for four or five years tops and then flame out. Hoffman, Huston Street…you could make an argument that there have been less than ten really elite guys ever.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
This is one of the reasons I have a problem with calling a pitcher a potential shutdown or elite closer. There are just so few of them that it’s not realistic. It’s especially unrealistic when you consider that it’s said so often.
This gets to a larger problem that I have with these guys who do the rankings.
Here’s something else I think is mindboggingly stupid that these guys say (in this case, Parks, quoted earlier by Myles):
I’m sorry, but if you can’t see Appel as a future number 1, but are high on Edwards, something is fucking wrong. Seriously, seriously wrong.
Of course Appel is a potential number 1. Every player drafted in the first round has star potential. it’s as simple as that. For that matter, nearly every player drafted does. If you can say, and I’m exaggerating here, “if Edwards can put on 40 pounds, continue to post awesome numbers, refine his pitches, and if this, that and this, he can be really good” something is wrong if you then say that you don’t see Appel as a future number 1. Where did the “if this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this and this” suddenly go?
I’m one of those cynical people. They are without doubt in the business of selling optimism. They do this as much as baseball teams themselves do. Maybe more.
dmick89Quote Reply
Even Mariano wasn’t predicted to be an elite closer. His cutter came after he hit the bigs. The Yanks even considered trading him early on.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I seem to remember Mo wasn’t thought all that highly of back then, which is why he got moved to the bullpen. My roommate at that time was as big a Yankkes fan as I am a Cubs fan and he wasn’t a fan. We could only watch Yankkes games that were on national tv, but nobody talked about him as if he’d be awesome.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Exactly.
I think closers tend to be discovered by luck or lack of other options.
Eck. Demp. Smoltz. Whatever. Easier to list accidents than bred closers.
SVBQuote Reply
By the way, I’d be happy if CJ was as good as Juan Cruz at his peak.
SVBQuote Reply
Al Oliver was a very good line drive hitter.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Yep. I also think scouts and fans are terrible at looking at current closers and estimating what they’ll be in 5 years. Back when Marmol was good a lot of fans thought he’d be an elite closer for a long time.
dmick89Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
TRIVIA
sitrickQuote Reply
Anyone see the lineup that Leyland threw out there?
Hunter, To, RF
Cabrera, M, 3B
Fielder, 1B
Martinez, V, DH
Peralta, Jh, LF
Avila, C
Infante, 2B
Jackson, A, CF
Iglesias, SS
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Can you send this as a question in to fringe average (fringeaverage@gmail.com)? I would love to hear Parks respond to this.
sitrickQuote Reply
There’s a fatal flaw in that theory that teams with former Cubs on their roster are doomed in the post-season: Ryan Theriot and the 2011 Cardinals. In fact, that should be a fatal flaw to the argument that there is a God in the universe.
joshQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Yeah, love Cabrera in the second spot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
And he stole a base today! He’s taking this top-of-the order thing seriously.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/10/16/4846928/miguel-cabrera-stolen-base-gif
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Was that before or after he moved from Catcher to PItcher ?
2883Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Good thing he didn’t do that to the Cardinals. There would be a beanball war like you wouldn’t believe over the rest of the series. Morans.
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
south korea for the time being.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/stars-of-tomorrow-cubs-minor-league-recap-101613.html
MylesQuote Reply