Fangraphs spent several days asking their readers what they thought the better free agents would end up signing for. They released the results and there are a couple things that may surprise some people. I was going to include only the top 10, but since the 11th player on the list is someone who was recently attached to the Cubs, I included him. So, to the top 11.
| Player | Pos | Yrs Real | Sal Real | Tot Real |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 7.6 | $24.5 | $186.4 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | 6.0 | $18.7 | $112.0 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | COF | 5.0 | $16.2 | $81.1 |
| Brian McCann | C | 4.4 | $14.8 | $65.4 |
| Matt Garza | SP | 4.4 | $14.7 | $64.5 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 3.5 | $14.0 | $49.0 |
| Ricky Nolasco | SP | 3.7 | $12.6 | $46.1 |
| Ervin Santana | SP | 3.5 | $13.3 | $45.9 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | SP | 3.6 | $12.2 | $43.8 |
| Tim Lincecum | SP | 3.0 | $13.3 | $40.5 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | C | 3.6 | $11.1 | $40.3 |
I know others have said they'd be surpried if Ellsbury signs for anything under $150 million. He may well sign for that much, but the work I did showed him to be worth around $120 million ($124.5 million over 7 years). I estimated $18.9 million annually using Steamer projections and the fans think he'll sign for $18.7 million annually. I think that's interesting. I don't really know why, but it's interesting to me.
I remember when Saltalamacchia was a top prospect and there were huge expectations. He was ranked as high as 18th by Baseball America after the 2005 season. He ended up being traded by the Braves in 2007 in what is probably the silliest trade I ever remember at the time it happened. Look it up. It was nuts to give up that kind of talent.
If Salty costs that much I'd pass. I don't have enough faith in him and honestly, I don't think he'd be much of an improvement, if any.
Comments
Wasn’t that the deal that also sent Wainwright to StL?
EDIT: nevermind, Wainwright’s been around longer than I thought. This was the deal that also sent Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz to the Rangers.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Wow. If the crowd sourced numbers are at all accurate, I’d totally take Choo over Ellsbury. I don’t think Ellsbury is 1 year and $30M more valuable than Choo.
Those are ridiculous numbers for Ubaldo.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Nice call. Didn’t pick up on that difference, but I didn’t look too closely I guess.
dmick89Quote Reply
The only problem with those numbers is that was pre lincecum deal. I assume that choo certainly gets his 100 mil and ellsbury gets his 150. Too many needs and not enough talent in this fa class. There is a pretty clear dropoff in terms of talent form cano to ellsbury and choo and then to everyone else. The top guys are gonna get paid.
lbkcbfnQuote Reply
@ lbkcbfn:
I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think there’s a chance that someone who gets a 2-year deal negotiated only by one team is going to affect contracts of 4, 5+ year contracts. Lincecum didn’t negotiate with all the teams who wanted him. He negotiated with one team and one team chose to pay him that amount. Not to mention, the fans thought Lincecum would get more than he did.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/kris-bryant-is-good-at-sports-cubs-minor-league-recap-10-25-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t think the dollar amount affects the market as much as the thought process. there are only 5-6 impact free agents on the market (cano, choo, ellsbury, Tanaka, maybe ubaldo and kuroda). the rest are more of a gamble due to either age, health, defense, strikeouts etc. I think the top guys get their money while the rest probably come closer to the crowd sourcing numbers.
lbkcbfnQuote Reply