Kenny Williams built his baseball team the wrong way. Baseball writers over the generations have settled upon the “right way” to play baseball. While the criteria have been known to fluctuate depending on whether the player in question gives a good interview, generally speaking the “right way” involves hustling, hitting for average, playing hurt, and ending up with a dirty uniform more often than not.
Like or not, the sabermetric movement seems to have settled on it’s own “right way” orthodoxy, though its focus is on front offices rather than on the players themselves. Broadly speaking, the “right way” to build a team involves investing in the farm system, avoiding big free agent contracts, prioritizing skills and production over more dubious conceptions of talent, and generally doing whatever Billy Beane seems to be up to at the moment. In addition, it means hiring a coaching staff that will at least make an attempt to understand what the front office is up to, has a vague notion of the importance of outs, and communicates well with the media.
Kenny Williams did not do these things. The White Sox under Williams used first round picks on toolsy outfielders and relievers. They liberally traded away prospects (Chris Young, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Hudson, Brandon McCarthy, four former first round picks for an injured Jake Peavy… off the top of my head) for short-term gains to the major league club. They hired a manager with tenuous connections to sanity. They shelled out for immobile sluggers on the downslope of their careers (Jim Thome, Adam Dunn). They picked up Alex Rios’s albatross contract. Not that all (or any) of these moves were bad, just that they fell into a pattern that precluded Williams from consideration as one of Fangraphs’ favorite GMs, and prioritized the present over the future.
When Williams was fired promoted after the 2012 season, it seemed the team was in for a long rebuilding process. The team's winning percentage had oscillated around .500 since the team’s World Series victory in 2005, and the farm system was perpetually abysmal.
| Chicago White Sox | ||
| Year | Wins | Baseball America Org. Talent Ranking |
| 2013 | 63 | 29 |
| 2012 | 85 | 30 |
| 2011 | 79 | 27 |
| 2010 | 88 | 23 |
| 2009 | 79 | 16 |
| 2008 | 89 | 30 |
| 2007 | 72 | 25 |
| 2006 | 90 | 14 |
| 2005 | 99 | 12 |
I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to compare the White Sox post-2012 to the Cubs post-2009. It was a decent, aging club without much in the pipeline. The Cubs under new owner Tom Ricketts opted to let the things degenerate for a few years before tearing the team down to a tankerific dumpster fire. The Sox, on the other hand, have aggressively acquired young, major league-ready talent in the year-plus since Rick Hahn was promoted as Williams’ replacement.
They signed Jose Abreu, whose upside is in the neighborhood of “best hitter in the world” to a contract that pays him as an average-ish player. They acquired Adam Eaton, a young center fielder with good speed and on-base skills to go along with some pop for a back-end of the rotation type in Hector Santiago. They turned Proven Closer Addison Reed into major league-ready third base prospect Matt Davidson. Jake Peavy was shipped off for Avisail Garcia, a corner outfielder whose numbers have been unimpressive, but whom many scouts think could be a solid regular. Meanwhile, the much-maligned farm system has produced a legitimate ace in Chris Sale, as well as a mid-rotation type in Jose Quintana, and potentially another in Erik Johnson.
That’s not to say that the White Sox are contenders as presently constructed. Shorstop Alexei Ramirez is on the downside of his career. Second Baseman Gordon Beckham will probably never be very good. Adam Dunn is careening towards uselessness, and Paul Konerko may already be there. A year from now, this article may look very silly. If Abreu can’t hit major league pitching, Eaton’s talent level proves closer to his 2013 performance than 2012, and Davidson busts, it likely will. At the moment, though, the 2014 White Sox look to be infinitely more watchable than their North Side counterparts (at least if you keep the volume down). Given that the Cubs have been at this rebuilding thing for longer for quite a bit longer (at least, they should have been), that’s a pretty impressive achievement.
Comments
Fired? I thought KW was promoted…
TonyQuote Reply
@ Tony:
you’re right. thanks.
i remember being under the impression that it was a significant change in management/philosophy, but apparently not.
GWQuote Reply
@ Tony:
I was thinking it was announced early on that he would not return and later got the promotion. I’ve always thought of him as having been fired from the GM job. Sometimes promotions are essentially being fired.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, they haven’t done a whole lot different than before. I’m guessing my recollection of how that unfolded is incorrect as it seems Williams still might be pulling some of the strings.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
I don’t think I’m jealous of the White Sox other than that they’re a better team. I know I’m not as optimistic about the Cubs these days and part of that is because there are so many forward-thinking front offices these days (as GM mentioned in the last thread). The advantage in that area is gone and it remains to be seen how effective Theo can be without that advantage.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
I think we need to be careful about extrapolating TOO Much based on the fact that Sox and Astros were in on Tanaka. He was kind of a no-brainer, really. Anyone would have thought to be in on him. Just because everybody wants a hot commodity doesn’t mean the market is getting smarter. See: every bubble the stock market ever had.
We really (sadly) need to continue to evaluate the front office based on their ability to make profit on the margins. All of this prospect flipping, and the kinds of traderape we’ve seen.
I’m not saying I agree with the system, because boy does it piss me off. But I think it’s a stretch to say this team doesn’t have an advantage on talent evaluation and speculation based on the fact a lot of people wanted something that nobody would shut up about.
Because blah blah blah Theo doesn’t write the checks…etc.
AkabariQuote Reply
I’d say much sooner than that.
Lots of better teams to envy out there. Here’s last year’s standings as a guide.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2013.shtml
I suggest starting by picking the teams listed at the top in boldface and numbers that begin with 9 underneath the “W” column. Good luck.
🙂
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Akabari wrote:
It’s not based on this in any way. It’s based on the fact that sabermetric front offices were rare several years ago. There were only a handful of teams. Some of them were in small markets. Now there are a lot more. One advantage Theo and Hoyer had several years ago was that they were usually smarter than other front offices. If they are smarter now, it’s not by much. Most organizations have adopted these practices. That’s all I’m saying.
I couldn’t begin to talk about the contract the Yankees gave out today. I know next to nothing of Tanaka and have literally no idea how he’ll perform or even what we should expect of him. I have no idea what he’s worth. He may be worth $300 million over 7 years and he may be worth $0. I have no problem with how the Cubs handled themselves with regards to these negotiations. They put themselves in a position to acquire him and just didn’t. Tanaka wanted to play elsewhere. There isn’t a damn thing you can do about that except offer more money and at some point you’ve got to walk away. The Cubs chose that and that’s fine.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Yeah….I’m really not.
GBTSQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning wrote:
based on what? when do you suppose the Cubs will be interesting to watch?
the comparison i was making was between two teams that approached their rebuilds quite differently. one sold off as much talent as possible for major-league ready prospects and signed a mid-20s slugger who posts Miguel Cabrera-like MLEs. the other sat on their hands for two years until they had more or less nothing to sell and is waiting until their prospects are ready to acquire any major league talent.
GWQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
exactly. the fact that the astros and sox were finalists on Tanaka is just an illustration of the state of the league. next time it might be red sox, cardinals, and rangers.
it amazes me that people think there are still big inefficiencies to be discovered. what the cubs have going for them is a larger market, and they can’t leverage that to the extent that they might have in the past because their tv deal is so far behind the curve. hopefully the front office gives them a marginal advantage, but it’s not going to be much.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
G-dub, I was messing with you. Don’t pay it any mind.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ GW:
Though I will add I expect very little out of most of what the White Sox have done. I will grant it is more interesting than what the Cubs have done this offseason, no argument there, but if I had to say which franchise is going to be the better one in 3-5 years, despite all the ways this rebuild has stretched my patience and all the other stuff that hasn’t gone right, I still think it’s going to be the Cubs.
I also think it won’t even be close.
What do I have to back that up? Not much. I just think Theo will eventually pull this off (though not soon enough for my tastes). Call it a shithead’s intuition.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I know the FO said part of their plan was to not hand out NTCs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was in the Tanaka offer. This FO doesn’t seem like they’re going to stick with ironclad rules no matter what, and I don’t think anyone would have complained if they bent them in this case.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
fair enough. it’s just that even if the sox are horrible for the next 2-3 years, they will still have more assets to deal off than the Cubs did during their strip-down years. Abreu doesn’t cost much, and if he turns into a 3 WAR player, there will be plenty of takers. Sale is a bargain. There’s a decent chance that one of Viciedo/Eaton/Garcia/Davidson turns out to have value, as well. As far as Quintana goes, well, that creep can roll.
The Cubs are certainly well ahead in accumulating prospects, but the comparison that i’m shamelessly pushing is the pre-2011 Cubs with the current Sox. And I don’t think there’s much doubt that the Sox are “ahead of schedule” based on that frame of reference.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-tanaka-dodgers-20140123,0,3688412.story#axzz2rB5hyWN0
According to this, seems the Cubs were right there. Just didn’t have to sell what the Yankees did.
I recall a few days ago a few of us saying as long as the Cubs bid big they’d be okay with the outcome regardless. Seems that happened.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ GW:
Perhaps. I’m just not that sold on any of those names, other than Sale, being worth a damn at the end of the day, and I feel pretty confident that the Sox will slog through as a middling team for the foreseeable future and will likely still be slogging through when the Cubs rocket past them.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think Samardzija best expresses why I was really hoping we would have signed Tanaka:
But here we are, getting ready to start 2014 with no notable adds to the Cubs. And I don’t think Samardzija wants to sign a long term contract until the Cubs show they are going to start contending, and there’s no indication of that starting anytime soon. It’s depressing being a Cubs fan.
WaLiQuote Reply
Eh, I think the Cubs have actually made a couple of good moves this offseason. Veras is a great value; he has a team option for 2015 at 5.5M. He’ll be traded at the deadline for something good, or be back next year as a good pen arm. Ruggiano is easy to make fun of, but so was Schierholtz.
Don’t get me wrong, it sucks watching the Cubs scrap shit together on the cheap. But i think they’re making good decisions overall and i think they’ll pay off. Other than perhaps an outfielder, there were no FA;s that really made sense besides Tanaka. Gotta see what they have w Olt and leave spaces for Baez, Bryant and Alcantara. This team will be good in 2015 I think.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
To be fair, Quintana wasn’t a product of the Sox system but rather a waiver wire/minor league free agent pickup.
Overall I see some stuff to be excited about on the Sox and a lot that will just piss me off if i was a fan of them. The sox have a lot of their “success” (by success I mean being like .500) reliant on a few players, i.e. Sale and Abreu. The Cubs may be shitty, but the reason they are shitty is a lack of real impact guys. I wouldnt be surprised if they got 2 WAR from literally any position, but if they got 5 war from any position, I’d be shocked. The sox are built around a few players being worth 5 or more WAR and a whole bunch of nothing. I think that puts the Cubs in a better position, since they are more resistant to injury. The cubs massively underperformed last year in a lot of ways and the Sox were still worse than them. The Sox may have added max 5 wins. The cubs did improve their bullpen and still have time to make a minor pickup or two in the rotation. I’d really be surprised if the Sox were better than the cubs next year. they have a lot of players on the wrong side of the aging curve.
AndrewQuote Reply
Shit from the Future
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/bps-top-10-cubs-prospects-consensus-top-14-prospects.html
MylesQuote Reply
Andrew wrote:
they really don’t. in their projected starting lineup, it’s just Dunn and Ramirez. (assuming Konerko assumes a bench role, which i think is accurate. he’ll probably take a few at-bats from Dunn at DH).
GWQuote Reply