Since leaving for my summer travels*, the Cubs have gone 2-10, pushing their run differential from around even to today’s -38. Oh well, at least the Cubs minor league bats have been hitting. I chatted with a Padres fan at a SFO bar who was glum about his team and seemed to think the Cubs beat up in them recently (not really, they split a series in SD back in May). We both agreed that at least we weren’t Astros fans.
*I usually try to plan my summer work travel to escape Texas heat, but I went to Spain and central China this year. Fail.
Team Overviews
Padres
- wRC+: 73 (15th) (next closest is the Phillies at 84)
- BSR: -0.5 (11th)
- UZR: 10.4 (4th)
- DRS: 27 (3rd)
- SP FIP-: 101 (7th)
- RP FIP-: 92 (5th)
- Run differential: -38 (11th)
Cubs
- wRC+: 85 (13th)
- BSR: 0.0 (10th)
- UZR: -4.7 (10th)
- DRS: -4 (13th)
- SP FIP-: 91 (2nd)
- RP FIP-: 92 (4th)
- Run differential: -44 (12th)
The Padres offense has been historically bad, scoring just 291 runs in 98 games. That puts them on pace for about 481 runs. I’m too lazy to query BRef to find out the last time a team scored less than 500 runs, but the putrid 2013 Marlins offense managed to scrape together 513 runs.
Despite their terrible offense and current black hole in the FO, the Padres are still in third place in their division. Great work, Arizona and Colorado!
News, notes, transactions, blood feuds, etc.
Both teams made nontrivial roster moves today. The Friars traded disappointing 3b Chase Headley to the Yankees for not much of consequence. Headley looked like a star on the rise a few years back, and posted 7.2 fWAR in 2012 with the Padres. He got hurt heading into 2013 and has been merely average-ish since then. He plays good defense and has a great eye at the plate but has had contact issues. I’ve always been curious to see what he can do outside of Petco though.
The Cubs activated Emilio Bonifacio from the DL today and designated Darwin Barney for assignment. Barney had been a nice guy to have around on the bench or batting eighth for a good team (not that the Cubs were), but given his big offensive dropoff from the merely mediocre-to-bad 2011-2012 numbers and what’s coming up through the system, the writing’s been on the wall for a while. That said, he’s being dumped to keep Bonifacio around? It’s hard to believe that their trade values are that different, though I guess Bonifacio’s ability to play CF gives him a little more value. This is also great news for Arismendy Alcantara’s hopes of sticking with the big league club for the rest of the season, though I guess he could be sent down when they bring Hendricks or Wada back up.
Klaw updated his top 5 farm systems list, and the Cubs are not surprisingly now at the top.
Some good discussion from GW on the Cubs near-future rotation/bullpen situation in the DFP earlier today. There’s not going to be a lot of FA pitching out there…
GBTS wrote some legal stuff about the current bonus pool situation. I like how his “summarized” version of the legal paper was still 14 paragraphs long. I’m hoping that the deal the Astros set up with their fifth rounder is upheld, and they lose all those picks.
Probable pitchers
(ERA, xFIP, projected FIP)
Tuesday: Eric Stults, LHP (4.98, 4.37, 4.23) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (6.00, 3.87, 4.45), 7:05 PM CT
Put the radar guns away for this one, both guys don’t really hit 90 that often. One look at his numbers and it was clear that Stults is a soft-tossing lefty. He was relatively undistinguished in parts of five seasons with the Dodgers and Rockies, but has put up some solid numbers since joining the Padres. He puts lots of balls in play and doesn’t walk many, not a bad strategy when you play so many games in Petco Caverns.
Hendricks was shaky in his first inning of work during his MLB debut last time out, but managed to settle down and go six innings, striking out seven. He’s not really a strikeout guy, but he’s also not going to walk so many batters either. The Padres offense is a much better get-your-feet-wet matchup for him.
Wednesday: Ian Kennedy, RHP (3.62, 3.24, 3.51) vs Tsuyoshi Wada, LHP (0.00, 3.81, 4.81), 7:05 PM CT
Now that its namesake is out of baseball, Ian Kennedy is probably the standard bearer for the Wandy Rodriguez HOF. I remember him being utterly awful with the Yankees, and never believed his numbers with the DBacks even as he kept posting great numbers. Blowback from a 21-4 season certainly didn’t help with the overrated perception either. He’s got one more arb year, then hits the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs take a run at him alongside Shark that offseason.
Wada’s an interesting pitcher, though not a prospect at 33. He’s been tearing it up in Iowa this year, his first full season following TJ surgery back in 2012. He had a good record in NPB, and given the options out there the Cubs could do a lot worse for the back of the rotation if he pans out.
Thursday: Tyson Ross, RHP (2.70, 3.07, 3.63) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.61, 3.95, 3.95), 7:05 PM CT
Ross was fairly middling during his time with the A’s, but once he moved to the Padres his K/9 jumped up by nearly 2.5. He’s mostly a groundball pitcher, but a seemingly atypical one. He gets lots of strikeouts and walks, which is unusual for someone you expect to want to put the ball in play a lot.
I’ve got nothing left to say about Jackson. Too bad the Cubs didn’t sign Anibal.