With a 42-61 record, the Cubs are now in last place in the National league, a half game back from their opponent this series. The Rockies actually started off the season fairly well, thanks to an All-World performance by marketing departmental bane Troy Tulowitzki, and were tied with the Giants for first place in the NL west on May 7 with a 22-14 record. Since then they have gone 21-47 with several long losing streaks only broken up by an improbable sweep of the Giants in whatever they’re calling Pac Bell these days.
The Rockies are starting four lefty SPs this series, and the Cubs face another one on Friday. It would be a big week for Justin Ruggiano if he weren’t banged up. Same for Darwin Barney, except he was traded today. I guess the math geniuses in the front office weren’t concerned with the team finishing July strong *shakes head*.
Team Overviews
Rockies
- wRC+: 102 (3rd)
- UBR: 4.2 (3rd)
- UZR: 5.6 (7th)
- DRS: +9 (7th)
- SP FIP-: 110 (14th)
- RP FIP-: 103 (13th)
- Run differential: -50 (12th)
- R+RBI: 971 (1st)
Cubs
- wRC+: 86 (13th)
- UBR: 4.2 (3rd)
- UZR: -4.7 (10th)
- DRS: -5 (13th)
- SP FIP-: 92 (2nd)
- RP FIP-: 92 (4th)
- Run differential: -50 (12th)
- R+RBI: 781 (12th)
I think I misattributed the run differentials on some of the last few previews but no problems this time.
News, notes, vengeance pacts, injuries, etc.
Obviously Tulo (hip injury) is the biggest injury-related hole in the roster. They’re missing a ton of other guys too though, including 1B Justin Morneau (neck), OF Michael Cuddyer (shoulder), SP Jordan Lyles (broken hand, 60-day DL), SP Jhoulys Chacin (shoulder, 60-day DL), SP Tyler Chatwood (second TJS), and SP Christian Bergman (broken hand, 60-day DL). So it’s not that surprising they’re running out two rookies this series.
Carlos Gonzalez and Drew Stubbs are day to day with some ankle problems.
GW hit most of the choice news tidbits in the DFP earlier today.
Darwin Barney was DFA’d last week to make room for Bonifacio’s return, and today he was traded to the Dodgers for a PTBNL. The Cubs also sent along some cash in the deal. My favorite take on the deal was from MO and Adam Brown, who joked that Magic’s conglomerate would lean on the rooftops or outright buy them for Ricketts in return.
Not bothering to link anything this laughable, but someone from the Hobbiton Post-Gazette (not Sullivan himself) was suggesting that Arrieta is trade bait. Obviously no one is untouchable, but (dying laughing), it’s hilarious how little part of the media has been paying attention to the rebuild.
Jon Lester is a likely FA target for the Cubs this offseason, and the Sox are getting plenty of interest in a trade for the back half of his walk year. I can’t seem to find the quote, because laziness, but Lester recently stressed that even if he gets traded he’d really wants to go back to Boston. That sound you hear is his agent scrambling to give him a gag order.
OV-o-sphere twitter topic of the day: Adam Scott and/or Ben Wyatt – overrated, or underrated? Strongly in the former camp myself. Loved him in Party Down, am pretty meh on him on P&R. Though pretty much everyone involved with Party Down needs to be getting more work (especially Ken Marino and Ryan Hansen).
Pitching Probables
(ERA, xFIP, projected FIP)
Monday: Yohan Flande, LHP (7.20, 4.22, 5.22) vs Tsuyoshi Wada, LHP (5.00, 3.25, 4.79), 7:05 PM CT
Flande’s made four starts on the year and they’ve been…not great. FWIW three of the starts were at Coors, but when you have only seven strikeouts in four starts that’s not an especially auspicious debut. He’s bounced around several orgs since signing with the Phillies in 04 and was posting an ERA of 5.00 in AAA when he was called up. Half those games are in Colorado Springs, but still. He has a pretty high ground ball rate, but it looks like SSS as according to Brooks he doesn’t throw a sinker.
Wada did okay in his debut at Cincy but did not look so great against the punchless Padres offense, giving up five runs in four innings, walking and striking out four. His numbers in AAA looked promising enough for him to be a credible, if unremarkable pitcher, so we’ll see how well his junkballing translates to the big leagues.
Tuesday: Jorge De La Rosa, LHP (4.19, 4.11, 4.36) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.76, 3.94, 3.95), 7:05 PM CT
If we’re extremely lucky, someone else could be pitching this game for the Cubs due to a trade. I don’t really see that happening though. I’m done defending Jackson’s numbers and will be happy to see him go, even if I still think that he’s a better pitcher than his back of the baseball card numbers suggest. Good luck moving him though, Thoyer.
De La Rosa had a mini-breakout a few years back with the Rockies, but he’s still a lot closer to the okayish guy I remembered him being from his time with Milwaukee. He gets a decent amount of strikeouts and ground balls, which are rightly prized at Coors field, but he’s always had a tough time finding the plate. He’s managed to stay healthy this year, which is a nice sign for the org after they only got 33 starts out of him from 2010-2012. He made 30 starts last year but only threw 167.2 innings, which seems like one of the lowest IP/start ratios I’ve ever seen. Then again, EJax threw 175 innings in 31 starts last year, so I guess it’s not that surprising.
Wednesday: Brett Anderson, LHP (3.24, 4.21, 3.69) vs Travis Wood, LHP (5.06, 4.64, 4.30), 7:05 PM CT
Anderson is one of the many current/former Oakland SPs that I can never tell apart. He was great in his first two seasons with the A’s, but his numbers have been falling off steadily since his rookie year. The main feature of his stats that jumps out to me early in his career is his low walk rate, which seems to have disappeared over the last season and a half.
Wood’s been about as awful as Jackson this year, but since he was pretty solid the last few years with the team he gets a lot more slack than EJax. He’s striking out and walking more batters this year, but it’s pretty easy to point to his BABIP and related strand rate as his source of problems this year. He posted babips of .244 and .248 the last two seasons, which are quite low even for an extreme fly ball guy like Wood, but it’s at .316 this year, and his FB rate isn’t all that different. Unlike Jackson, he’s actually posted a LD rate below his career numbers so it’s not like he’s being hit hard either.
Thursday: Tyler Matzek, LHP (4.28, 4.19, 5.19) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (2.18, 2.76, 3.89), 1:20 PM CT
For some reason I remember Matzek’s name as a decent prospect, but his minor league numbers are kinda meh. He did put up big strikeout rates, especially in the low minors, but that has yet to manifest at the MLB level this year. Luckily for the Rockies, neither has the lousy walk rate either. He’s mostly a fastball-slider guy, and throws his heater around 93-94.
Arrieta has taken the mantle from Samardzija as the guy with no run support. He’s obviously stepped back a bit from his incredible June but that Scott Feldman deal sure is looking great right now. Near no-hitters and fantastic strikeout rate aside, he’s also given up only two home runs this year.