You all remember Phil Rogers and his beautiful plus/minus system he developed? Well, it’s time to to put it to use.
The other day I was reading the news and I read that the US had announced a successful airstrike against IS in which 15 militants, 4 tanks and 4 civilians were killed. That sounds like disastrous results to me, but who I am to question the wisdom of the United States Government. I realized that most of these hacks probably learned from the greats like Phil Rogers. That airstrike was successful only because its plus/minus was 15. It also probably cost a billion dollars, but the US has infinite wealth and no debt.
Javier Baez‘s +/- for strikeouts and walks: 80 (176 if you include AAA). I’ve been meaning to write more about him and this seems like as good a time as any.
I went over to Baseball Reference to get some data. I looked only at rookies, age 24 and under, since 1950 with a minimum of 150 plate appearances. The results were even less encouraging than I expected.
Below are the rookies with the highest strikeout rate.
| Player | Age | Year | PA | BB% | K% | OPS+ |
| Javier Baez | 21 | 2014 | 229 | 7.0% | 41.5% | 51 |
| Trayvon Robinson | 23 | 2011 | 155 | 5.2% | 39.4% | 67 |
| Gorman Thomas | 22 | 1973 | 172 | 7.6% | 35.7% | 54 |
| Josh Bell | 23 | 2010 | 161 | 1.2% | 32.9% | 43 |
| Jordan Schafer | 22 | 2009 | 195 | 12.3% | 32.8% | 61 |
| Darrel Chaney | 21 | 1969 | 237 | 8.9% | 32.2% | 42 |
| Brett Wallace | 23 | 2010 | 159 | 7.5% | 32.1% | 69 |
| Anthony Gose | 21 | 2012 | 189 | 10.1% | 31.2% | 70 |
| Phil Hiatt | 24 | 1993 | 263 | 8.7% | 31.2% | 70 |
| Kimera Bartee | 23 | 1996 | 247 | 6.9% | 31.2% | 56 |
| Arismendy Alcantara | 22 | 2014 | 300 | 6.3% | 31.0% | 70 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 21 | 2011 | 153 | 15.7% | 30.3% | 51 |
| Gabe Alvarez | 24 | 1998 | 221 | 8.6% | 29.5% | 71 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 23 | 2008 | 187 | 9.1% | 29.4% | 56 |
| Jeff Hamilton | 22 | 1986 | 151 | 0.7% | 28.7% | 66 |
| Shane Andrews | 23 | 1995 | 241 | 6.6% | 28.5% | 67 |
| Troy Glaus | 21 | 1998 | 182 | 8.2% | 28.0% | 48 |
| Lee Stevens | 22 | 1990 | 275 | 6.9% | 27.6% | 73 |
| Darrell Whitmore | 24 | 1993 | 267 | 5.6% | 27.0% | 44 |
| Aaron Hicks | 23 | 2013 | 313 | 8.3% | 26.8% | 63 |
| Jason Repko | 24 | 2005 | 301 | 7.3% | 26.7% | 74 |
| Craig Paquette | 24 | 1993 | 409 | 2.9% | 26.5% | 71 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 20 | 1998 | 275 | 8.0% | 26.2% | 68 |
| Franklin Stubbs | 23 | 1984 | 245 | 8.6% | 26.0% | 74 |
| Matt Williams | 21 | 1987 | 266 | 4.9% | 26.0% | 54 |
| Bud Zipfel | 22 | 1961 | 190 | 7.9% | 25.8% | 72 |
| Felix Escalona | 23 | 2002 | 171 | 5.8% | 25.7% | 50 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 22 | 2008 | 316 | 3.8% | 25.7% | 71 |
| Luis Castillo | 20 | 1996 | 180 | 7.8% | 25.6% | 69 |
| Roberto Mejia | 21 | 1993 | 248 | 5.2% | 25.5% | 68 |
| Jeff Duncan | 24 | 2003 | 166 | 9.6% | 25.2% | 44 |
| Hank Blalock | 21 | 2002 | 172 | 11.6% | 25.1% | 65 |
| Justin Upton | 19 | 2007 | 152 | 5.3% | 25.0% | 62 |
| Larry Burright | 24 | 1962 | 276 | 5.8% | 24.7% | 60 |
| Gorkys Hernandez | 24 | 2012 | 173 | 9.2% | 24.3% | 54 |
| Amado Samuel | 23 | 1962 | 224 | 4.9% | 24.2% | 48 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 21 | 2003 | 270 | 8.9% | 24.1% | 67 |
| Chase d’Arnaud | 24 | 2011 | 151 | 3.3% | 23.8% | 48 |
| John Bateman | 22 | 1963 | 434 | 4.8% | 23.8% | 71 |
| Shane Monahan | 23 | 1998 | 223 | 3.6% | 23.8% | 60 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 23 | 2007 | 158 | 3.8% | 23.6% | 50 |
| Rich Murray | 22 | 1980 | 206 | 4.9% | 23.4% | 69 |
| Jeff Kunkel | 22 | 1984 | 150 | 2.0% | 23.3% | 46 |
| Denis Menke | 21 | 1962 | 166 | 10.8% | 22.9% | 49 |
| A.J. Hinch | 24 | 1998 | 391 | 8.7% | 22.8% | 69 |
| Gene Oliver | 24 | 1959 | 181 | 3.9% | 22.7% | 72 |
| Sandy Martinez | 24 | 1995 | 200 | 4.0% | 22.5% | 58 |
| Jose Castillo | 23 | 2004 | 414 | 4.6% | 22.5% | 72 |
| Phil Nevin | 24 | 1995 | 179 | 11.7% | 22.5% | 44 |
| Rene Tosoni | 24 | 2011 | 189 | 9.0% | 22.2% | 70 |
| Felix Pie | 22 | 2007 | 194 | 7.2% | 22.2% | 52 |
Most of the players on the list are older and there’s a big difference between 24 and 21, but probably not all that much difference between 21 and 22.
It would be foolish to draw too many conclusions from this. 229 plate appearances is still a pretty small size, but at the same time it’s not so small. Baez’s walk rate is encouraging, but without significantly reducing his strikeouts, he doesn’t stand a chance. That said, the percentage above is almost certainly not his true strikeout rate.
Someone asked whether there was any reason to send Baez to AAA to start the season. Quite clearly, yes. Do I think they should? I’m not sure that’s an easy answer.
Baez was, without doubt, overwhelmed at the MLB level. Baez has also turned things around before. Anthony Rizzo is on that list and the Cubs own general manager said he was called up too soon and was sent to AAA Iowa after the Cubs acquired him. I think it’s a definitely possibility, but I also think it will depend on more than the numbers above. I also don’t think the Cubs will let him be as bad as long next year. The leash will only get shorter and shorter with him, and any player that plays as poorly early on.
I still think Baez has a shot to be a good player. I’ve never thought he was going to be a superstar. Too many strikeouts. The player I’m more concerned about is also on this list, Arismendy Alcantara. I thought he could be a solid, perhaps average or better player in the big leagues. I’m not so sure now even though his ISO was higher than Baez’s.