I figure it makes sense to perform the same calculations I did for Jon Lester for Max Scherzer. I think the chance he signs with the Cubs is a lot lower than Jon Lester, but it’s theoretically possible. Basically, we only need to calculate a starting WAR, and I’ll be using a depreciation schedule of Year(N+1) = Year(N) * .85.
Scherzer is projected by Steamer to reach 3.7 WAR next year. He’s slightly less of a horse than Lester, averaging 191.1 innings in his past 5 years. That’s still really, really good, but maybe 10 innings off of Lester’s annual total. Scherzer has been worth 4.5, 6.4, and 5.6 WAR in his past 3 years, and was a good pitcher the 3 years before that as well. Scherzer strikes out 25.7% of his batters and walks 7.6% (compared to 21.8% and 8.2%), so Scherzer clearly is the more talented pitcher of the two. Scherzer is one of the 6-8 best pitchers of the last 3 years.
Scherzer is only 7 months younger than Lester, so the age difference is minimal. Scherzer has 300 less MLB innings on his arm, so he might be effectively a year younger than Lester. I think a 7-year contract is a certainty for Max, and an 8th year might even be possible.
After consulting an actuarial friend of mine, he pointed out that my formula for force of mortality is such that the probability Lester would end up pitching at 50 is 6%. That’s clearly not correct, so I’ve changed the force of mortality to be 0.04+0.02x.
I had Lester at 4.5 WAR next year. I’m going to be really optimistic for Max and stick him with 4.8.
| n+1=n*.85 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 year total | 8 year total |
| 4.8 WAR | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2021 | Force of Mortality is the instaneous rate of failure for a pitcher in that age group. | |
| fWAR | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | ||
| Force of Mortality | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% | ||
| AWAR | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | ||
| At $6, 5% | $27.4 | $23.9 | $20.9 | $18.2 | $15.9 | $13.9 | $12.1 | $10.5 | $132.2 | $142.7 |
| At $6.5, 5% | $29.6 | $25.9 | $22.6 | $19.7 | $17.2 | $15.0 | $13.1 | $11.4 | $143.2 | $154.6 |
| At $7, 5% | $31.9 | $27.9 | $24.4 | $21.3 | $18.5 | $16.2 | $14.1 | $12.3 | $154.2 | $166.5 |
As you can see, the baseline for a Scherzer contract is already a considerable over pay. Max might be worth 7/$140, but the reports are that it might take 7/$175 to get it done. Still, if you do the same take what he’s worth AAV wise for a n-1 year deal, and add a year to it, you get 7/$154 as a reasonably sane jumping off point (for those curious, using the new force of mortality equation gives Jon Lester 7/$142 or 6/$122.)
An 8-year deal for Scherzer would take him from 7/$143.2 (no FA penalty applied) to 8/$163.7. If you put the 7/$175 he might get (according to reports) against the 8/$164 he’s “worth,” it seems evident that he’ll receive a 7-year deal. If Scherzer eventually gets 8, I’ll take that as a sign that the competition for his services was so great that all rationality went out the window (or some assumption I’ve made here is very wrong – quite possible).
Would you rather have Lester at 6/$125 or Scherzer at 7/$143? How about Lester at 7/$157.5 or Scherzer at 7/$175?