It is not a common occurrence that a player re-signs with the team that just traded him (*cough* Jon Lester *cough*), but Jason Hammel is proof positive that it can happen. The Cubs signed Hammel to a 2-year, $18 million deal with an option that could bring the final tally to $28 million.
As far as middle-tier pitching options go, Hammel is right around the middle. Jason was a great addition for the Cubs in 2014, and if you think Shark was worth Addison Russell (for all intents and purposes, you’d probably need a little more to make that trade fair from the A’s perspective), Hammel netted the Cubs 108.2 innings of 3.00 ERA baseball, Dan Straily (who cares, he’s the 5th man up in the rotation in 2015) and Billy McKinney (an all-hit RF prospect with middling pop, but a good chance to play every day in the majors). For $3 million dollars (we only paid the first half of his contract), that’s a steal.
Hammel more-or-less got shelled after the trade to Oakland, brought on by a rash of home runs (the FIP climbed from 3.19 to 5.10) and walks and a diminution of strikeouts (so, everything, then). Hammel was quickly the impetus for the Athletics to trade Yoenis Cespedes for the shiny new toy (Jon Lester, who also may sign with the Cubs).
What can the Cubs expect from Hammel going forward? It’s hard to say, given just how erratic Hammel has been. On the whole, Hammel had a 3.92 ERA last season, but we saw just how disparate his pitching performances could be. He was terrible in 2013, but very good in 2012. If you’re looking for a reason he was so bad so suddenly in 2014, I could maybe point you in the direction of his horizontal release point (which got further and further from his body as 2014 progressed, before snapping back to early-season levels in September), but really, the only stat you need to know is groundball rate. Hammel is a worm-burner, but he traded 4 percent of GB% for FB%. That can be a good thing (groundballs have a higher BABIP than flyballs), and a really bad thing (flyballs have a higher rate of HR%, obviously). In Hammel’s case, it was about the worst tradeoff possible, and it’s one he’ll need to get back to be a successful pitcher in the future.
Does this perhaps mean that Chris Bosio is coming back? I sure hope so, and the Groundball Whisperer is exactly what a pitcher like Hammel needs. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but I think it might be at least a weak indicator.
In any case, $9 million a year is 1.5 WAR, or a #4 or #5 starter. Hammel has a good chance to be that (projected FIP of 3.94, for 1.6 fWAR at 163 IP), with some definite upside (and downside). Given his previous history with this FO, I’m even more confident (albeit slightly so). Regardless of whether or not the Cubs land Lester, they needed 2 or 3 major-league caliber pitchers this offseason. Hammel checks off one of those boxes.
Projected rotation as of now: Arrieta, Hendricks, Hammel, ? (Wood?), ? (Wada/Doubront/Turner/Straily/Jokisch/Beeler?)