Jake Arrieta’s Innings Increase

Jake Arrieta has had a fantastic season this year. Actually, he's been fantastic since he joined the Cubs, but I find myself being a little bit scared about his workload right now. He's thrown 191 innings so far and has about 5 starts left this regular season. He's averaged roughly 6.8 innings per start.

That puts him on pace to throw 225 innings in the regular season and he's sure to be starting the game against the Pirates on October 7th. Hopefully he'll make more than just that start. At the very least, he's probably going to finish the 2015 season with close to 220 to 230 innings pitched.

We'd all like the Cubs to go deep into the playoffs at which point we could be looking at 240 to 250 innings. That's nearly 100 more than he threw in 2014. He threw 232 innings in 2013 and 2014 combined.

Those who know me know that I'm not as worried about high pitch counts as a lot of people are and I'm not as worried about pitcher workloads as a lot of people. However, I can't help but be a little concerned about the huge innings increase that we've seen from Arrieta.

To be clear, I'd not have managed him any differently. He'll be 30 in March so he's not the kind of pitcher you baby out there.

Arrieta will see a huge increase in his salary next year and there will probably be a lot of extension talk this offseason. I wouldn't mind the Cubs taking a wait and see approach. I don't think a big innings increase is a huge concern, but it's a big enough concern for me that I'd hold off signing him to any high dollar, long-term extension.

However, the Cubs can probably still retain Arrieta for multiple years at a really good rate. He has two more years of club control and his salary is more than likely going to jump up to around $8 million or more next year. It would probably be nearly $12-15 million the following year if things go as well as the Cubs hope.

I'm guessing any extension talk is going to have to begin with 9 figures. I don't think the Cubs are going to cost themselves a whole lot by waiting another year to make sure the innings increase doesn't have a negative result. I'm not expecting it will, but I am a little worried.

That said, here's to hoping Jake Arrieta throws 240-250 innings during the 2015 regular and post-season. Good things will have happened.

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