148 thoughts on “Cubs clinch the wild card”

  10. WaLi:
    Rice Cube,

    So based on this picture and google maps distance calculator, Castro was around 70-80 ft away from home plate and Mercer was about 30-40 feet away from home plate when Castro had the ball in his hand about to throw it.

    Assuming Castro throws 85 mph, the ball will get to Ross between 0.56 s (70 ft) to 0.64 s (80 ft).

    Mercer is already at full speed. Assuming he runs about 15 mph, he will get to home plate (without sliding which will slow him down) between 1.8 s (@ 40 ft away) to 1.3 s (@30 ft away).

    So if it was a force play, I’d say Castro has a good shot of getting him. However, it wasn’t a force play. Castro’s throw has to be accurate and then Ross has to catch it and tag the runner in less than 1s (between 0.7 s and 1.2s based on min/max distances). I’d say he has >0% chance to make the play, but less than 5% chance.

    WaLi that was one of the best comments ever I recently enjoyed.

    One thing I don’t see addressed in the comment or in the discussion by JD or dm is the time it will take for Castro to get off the throw. Actually, JD did wonder if maybe he didn’t get the handle on it so that’s why he went to first, but that’s not what I mean. See where he’s holding the ball now? By the time he winds up and gets the throw off, even if he got the handle immediately, the runner is another 10 feet closer to the plate.

    I do agree there was a shot if it was a force play.

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  12. Suburban kid,

    They do. The code just wasn’t right. Noticed it in another one by you that didn’t work out right, but you had a weird end quotation mark at the end. Also, you didn’t have http:// at the beginning of the url.

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  14. Suburban kid: WaLi that was one of the best comments ever I recently enjoyed.

    One thing I don’t see addressed in the comment or in the discussion by JD or dm is the time it will take for Castro to get off the throw. Actually, JD did wonder if maybe he didn’t get the handle on it so that’s why he went to first, but that’s not what I mean. See where he’s holding the ball now? By the time he winds up and gets the throw off, even if he got the handle immediately, the runner is another 10 feet closer to the plate.

    I do agree there was a shot if it was a force play.

    Thanks for all the work here, Wali.

    For the record, I think Castro should have gone to 1st. He made the right play in my mind. My main point was that even JD knew it was a low probability play, but he wondered if the gain made it worth it. I doubt it did.

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  22. Career earnings ~$3.0 million. That’s damn near impossible for someone with an 11-year career over that time span. Maybe he’ll get a few million in flier money this offseason.

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  25. I think the Cubs have a better chance of reaching the NLCS with St. Louis winning the division. The Cubs probably have a better chance of beating the Cardinals in 5 than they do the Pirates.

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  28. Rizzo the Rat:
    Test

    Edit: It works!

    Unfortunately, I’m not sure this is going to work. Noticed that I was able to edit an older comment, which isn’t a big deal in itself, but the timer function isn’t working correctly and that’s going to fill up the database quite quickly. There’s another option I was trying out too and I don’t think we’ll have that problem.

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  38. So they said during an MLB at Bat ad on TV that the number one app for live baseball is MLB At Bat. What other app has live baseball?

    Obstructed View is the number one Cubs blog names Obstructed View.

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  46. Hammel can’t not have one shitty inning. Joe should have cut bait after he let two guys on because that was a clear sign it had arrived.

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  51. Suburban kid:
    Vasgersian says Arrieta isn’t necessarily the Cubs number one SP.

    I heard that and then I muted the TV. If you don’t know who the number one is on the cubs at this point, you shouldn’t be speaking about baseball.

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  53. Wouldn’t mind seeing an open audition for the last SP slot now that the die is pretty much cast for the postseason, see what Wood and Cahill might be able to do.

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  56. I think it’s way too late for open auditions. I just think that when Hammel and Hendricks start, be ready for a bullpen game. If they pitch good for four innings, great, but if they suck in the first, put in Richard/Cahill/Wood.

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  58. Suburban kid,

    I think you need to have a lightning-fast hook regardless of who you put up there, but I’d be inclined to try and figure out who has the hot hand and put them at the front of the line.

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  60. Soler guesses the wrong pitches to swing at. He also seems to think that once he has one strike on him, he has to swing at every pitch after that.

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  62. Maybe they could just do bullpen games for non Jake/Jon affairs. At the very least, I wouldn’t trust Hammel or Hendricks more than twice through the order.

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  63. Carlos Martinez——->Done deal sealed (shoulder strain)

    Now I really hope the Cards hang on and take the division, because that rotation looks awfully thin in a five game series.

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  67. myles:
    If Carp is out for the playoffs, we absolutely should be cheering for a Cardinals division victory.

    No joke. Their voodoo magic seems to be unraveling all at once. They might be the weakest 100 win team I can remember.

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  68. aisle424:
    Perkins,

    Still want the Pirates and Cardinals to tie so they have to play a tie-break game to determine the division winner.

    Assuming the Cardinals win that game and the Pirates burn Cole or Liriano, agreed.

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  70. The last time The Cubs played the Game of the Week, Arrieta threw a no-hitter. I expect no less from Arrieta today.

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  72. I was hoping the Cubs would pass the Pirates. Not for home field advantage, but for the extra money that would have come in from the wild card game (and passed on in part to next year’s budget).

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  74. EnricoPallazzo:
    Suburban kid,

    Wait are the Cubs officially honoring him or something? I haven’t seen anything about that

    Yes, I heard something about that a few weeks ago. Ricketts told a beat writer they’d honor him during this series (or something like that).

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  78. McCutcheon just isn’t seeing Arrieta at all lately. Not that anyone else is, but that’s a great hitter who looks clueless against Arrieta the last two games he’s faced him.

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  112. Damn if the Cubs get this Arrieta in the WC game that is gonna be so fun to watch

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  124. Cubs should have more runs in this game. It feels like they should have 5-6

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  138. 90 is more than I thought they’d get at the beginning of the year, and I was optimistic

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  141. I was thinking 78-84 wins at the beginning of the year. They’ve gotten a lot more offensive production from their rookies than I was expecting. Also, Arrieta has been way better than I thought he was. He’s been way better than anyone thought, but I was thinking he was probably closer to an average starter.

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  142. I was hoping for 87 wins at the beginning, but expecting 82-84. The young players have been great, and obviously Arrieta. I also think they way Maddon has used the roster has really maxed out the talent

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  143. I was pretty optimistic, and The Cubs still outperformed my expectations. Which… hasn’t happened in quite a while.

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  144. In my opinion, there isn’t much of a difference in five games—87 wins is comparable to 82 wins on the low end (an average team got lucky) and 92 wins on the high end (a solid team got unlucky). The Cubs may win 95.

    I thought 90 was within the realm of possibility if everything went right—that is, they got lucky. But 95 by my metric means a lucky 90-win team or an unlucky 100-win one—in other words, they are at least a 90-win team. That exceeds every expectation that I had.

    All this with some key players missing time due to injury and others underperforming and ineffective—particularly Starlin and the revolving door of starters. But youth is amazing—like the Cards, the Cubs have been able to find production from the minors and be *better* when others get hurt.

    That’s the mark of a great organization and a perennial contender. And they have an ace who has legitimate claim to the title *best in all of baseball* who looks like he may be getting better.

    All this to say, we are actually good, *really*. And this seems like a glimpse of things to come.

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  145. Question: How many wins do the Cubs get if Renteria were still the manager?

    I feel like Joe and his coaches have been worth several wins—which is crazy, because managers don’t have that kind of impact. Somebody talk me down from this precarious line of thinking.

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  146. cerulean: That’s the mark of a great organization and a perennial contender. And they have an ace who has legitimate claim to the title *best in all of baseball* who looks like he may be getting better.
    All this to say, we are actually good, *really*. And this seems like a glimpse of things to come.

    I think I wrote this exact same thing on the Cubs.com message board… in 2003.

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