The Winter Meetings start today. This year, the Winter Meetings are in Nashville. Nashville is on Central time so expect any news to drop during more normal hours of the day than last year. The hot stove is already cooking and quite a few rumors have already begun in regards to your Chicago Cubs.
What happened since the last update?
Zack Grienke signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6 years $206 million.
David Price signed with the Boston Red Sox for 7 years $217 million with a opt out clause.
The Cubs signed John Lackey for 2 years $32 million (and lost their first round draft pick).
Jeff Samardzija signed with the San Francisco Giants for 5 years $90 million.
The Cubs claimed another reliever off waivers by the name of Edgar Olmos.
Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda was posted by his team and will be available to sign with an MLB team for the 2016 season.
Hot Stove
The Cubs are apparently shopping Javier Baez and trying him out in Center Field at the same time.
The Cubs are apparently looking to acquire a "top closer" because, apparently, the bullpen is the biggest weakness on this team.
With just Johnny Cueto left of the top free agent arms, the Cubs free agent talk seems to have died down with the exception of being linked to Wei-Yin Chen.
What to expect this week
Here's a link to all the transactions made during the Winter Meetings 2014. Expect tons of rumors featuring Mystery Team and a few significant trades (Cubs or otherwise). The Rule 5 draft will be on Thursday 12/10. I believe the Cubs will lose at least 2 players to the draft this year, including pitcher Corey Black.
Once the Cubs stop claiming every reliever, I'd look for some player profiles on the newly acquired in the form of Better Know a Cub. Remember those? That was a good time.
Other shyt
The Leftovers just concluded their second season on HBO. The show apparently is in danger of not getting renewed. If you are bored in the coming weeks, you can binge watch both seasons on HBO GO. While the first season was decent, this season was one of the great seasons in television drama. The show is written and directed by Lost creator Damon Lindelof. I'm not a Lost fan, but apparently that was a popular show people recently enjoyed. I'll say that The Leftovers is my favorite drama since Breaking Bad.
Go watch it. Or don't. I can't tell you what to do.
Comments
First domino to fall:
Aroldis Chapman —————> Dodgers
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Better Know a Cub? Those were pretty good.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Yeah berselius did an awesome job on those.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Uh
berseliusQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
My bad, I guess it was GW. Or dmick?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ryno,
I am happier ever since I decided to boycott football. CTE, Roger GoToHell, and Phil Emery made it an easy decision. (When you look fondly back on the Angelo era…) So fuck football.
And God fuck America ????????
(What’s that? We’re doing that just fine without God’s help? Nevermind, then. Carry on.)
PREEMPTIVE EDIT: It’s a joke. Lighten up.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
That’s how I felt about baseball. I still enjoy football, but the 49ers ownership is starting to make me feel that way about the team.
Sports in general pretty much suck.
RynoQuote Reply
Pretty sure it was Aisley
berseliusQuote Reply
Sounds like the military was late in its payments for you to sing GBA, cerulean.
berseliusQuote Reply
I thought it was myles?
Let’s just keep guessing.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
(dying laughing), that’s true. I think I was remembering that Aisley did some way back in the original OV Destructicon days.
berseliusQuote Reply
True story:
I thought of the joining the military as a last resort kind of thing—my west should life after graduation go the wrong way. It did.
So I went to the recruiters, took the ASVAB, scored in 99th percentile, gave them my various documentation and medical records, was instructed to lie about having taken antidepressants two years prior, thought it would be better to just wait a year, and they lost everything, including what turned out to be the only copy of the medical records to age 18. I decided that that was not the place for me. YMMV.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It was Myles. 424 also did something similar, but Myles most recently.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Leftovers
The second season was the best season of tv I’ve ever seen. I know people can quibble about this or that, but there wasn’t a single moment in the entire season that I didn’t enjoy. It was absolutely perfect and I’ll be so disappointed if there isn’t more to this story. Unlike a lot of people, I really enjoyed season 1 too. It wasn’t nearly as good as this year, but I still thought it was a great season. I didn’t have a problem with the elements that angered a lot of people like Greenwald and Maureen Ryan, and probably JKV too.
People keep talking about too much tv. Or Peak TV. It’s crazy. There is so much quality television that it’s impossible to even watch it all. That’s not a bad thing. That’s a great thing. The Americans, Rectify, Fargo and The Leftovers are comparable, but not quite as strong as The Sopranos, The Wire, Deadwood and Six Feet Under. Still, the fact that there’s even something that can be compared to block of television is amazing.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno, I know you were a huge Lost fan. Do you watch The Leftovers? I never got into Lost, but fell in love with The Leftovers early on. I didn’t think I’d like it, but I figured I’d give it a chance.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs re-sign Trevor Cahill
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Relief pitchers are the new market inefficiency.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I guess. Just fill the roster with relief pitchers and worry about everything else later on. This is starting to remind me of Jim Hendry’s absurd fascination with 2nd basemen that he had for awhile.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I haven’t seen it, but it sounds pretty good.
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
TV is so great now, I just wish I had time to watch everything. I had 5 weeks of travel over the past few months and my DVR backlog is so big it’s intimidating, even aside from the stack of dvds of shows I’ve been meaning to watch.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
At least I’m somewhere around s4 in shameless now, maybe I’ll finish before the next season begins (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
berseliusQuote Reply
All the Cubs need to do now is trade for Paplebon, and maybe 8-10 more other RP, and their bullpen should be close to being done.
MillertimeQuote Reply
On the bright side, the Cubs got Cahill back for just $4.25 million.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
One wonders if Cahill gets to start any games in ST.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
ALL UR RELIEF PITCHERS ARE BELONG TO ME
—Thoyer
ceruleanQuote Reply
I hear Rich Garces is available.
berseliusQuote Reply
I figured it out: The Cubs will turn their starting pitchers into relievers and their relievers into starting pitchers, thereby spending less money on starters by signing relievers and devaluing their current starters so that they can be extended for less. It’s brilliant!
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Is the Leftovers about the Biblical final days—as in The Stand (pretty awesome) or the Left Behind series (pretty awful)? (Some take the latter to be a future non-fiction account. And then use such an account as a fait accompli, thereby justifying destroying the earth further because it will soon be destroyed. Ugh. Got to love evangelical christians justifying the closest approximation of evil in the now because a greater apparent evil *must needs come* in the future.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
It’s the logical extension of the Bullpen Test Strategem.
berseliusQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s based on Tom Perrotta’s book, which I have not read. Apparently the first season used the entire book, which partly explains why the second season was superior. A sudden departure occurred a few years earlier in which 2% of the population just vanished. One woman’s wife and two children all vanished while eating breakfast. The pain and sorrow from some of these people goes without saying, but a small group of idiots form what’s called the Guilty Remnant and for some reason they chain smoke, don’t speak and dress in all white. They serve to remind others what happened and that the world ended that day. it’s the weakest part of the series, or at least it was in season 1.
It sounds like something I’d have zero interest in, but it’s done so very well. Check it out when you have time. It’s a polarizing show as things aren’t always explained as much as people would like, but whatever.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(novel)
dmick89Quote Reply
I do miss it when it seemed like all the rumors in baseball involved the Cubs. Those were fun times.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pure speculation: Rays seeing how much it will take to lock up Odorizzi in response to teams like the Cubes inquiring about him? In the lingo of all the dumbasses in Keith Law’s chats: “Baez for Odorizzi, who hangs up first?”
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Solar, Baez, Hendricks, Dunston Jr, Vogelbach, Underwood for Chris Archer. Who hangs up first?
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Jerome Walton,
Take out Hendricks and replace him with Pierce Johnson and add in a prospect from the Rays.
dmick89Quote Reply
Kris Bryant files service time grievance
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Jesse Rogers for Ruben Amaro Jr. Who hangs up first?
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Jerome Walton,
Surprised that didn’t happen sooner. He’s got a strong case.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sweet. I hope Bryant wins.
MillertimeQuote Reply
+1
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
I will literally go insane if I keep this stupid fucking arguement going on BN. My head is hurts.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
About KB service time?
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m really surprised there hasn’t been more Heyward rumors floating around today.
dmick89Quote Reply
FWIW, I think the Cubs will win if the onus on the Bryant side is to prove it. I think the Marlins 3b will have an easier case.
berseliusQuote Reply
Given this FO’s ability to dodge the media, I hope that’s a good sign.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
At least the Cubs can point to the paper-thin excuse/narrative that they wanted to see what they had in Olt and La Stella, and they both got hurt around the optimal call-up time. If arbitrators start penalizing teams for dumb statements (we don’t think he’s ready, e.g.) that’s not – precedent MLB would be happy with.
berseliusQuote Reply
I think the Cubs probably end up winning. I think these were only filed so that in the future other players may be able to bolster their case by pointing to a team’s history to delay the player’s starting time. Without a documented history of it, it would be super easy for the Cubs to just say they did it for this reason or another. I also think these filings are a strong indication that the MLBPA is going to address this in the next CBA.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ve read that before, but is it really true? There wasn’t really anything that they did in Boston that didn’t go unreported beforehand. MLBTR was filled with rumors about the Red Sox. Some things have come out of the blue, but that was also true with the Cubs before Thoyer. I think part of it is that they’ve tried to do a better job at keeping things quiet for whatever reason.
The Cubs have had basically one signing that anyone outside the Cubs organization could give a shit about since they got here.
I think lazy reporting by the beat guys in Chicago is a big part of it too.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, I totally think the Cubs will win. I just get very frustrated with how the discussions typically go. It just feels like some fans deliberately choose to not understand how employer/employee relationships work, or how good faith works, because in this case they want the Employer to win.
It’s like how fans complain non-stop when a player is overpaid, but have no problems when a player puts up 6 WAR while getting paid league minimum. I’m probably too sensitive about these kinds of things, I just tend to side with players over management.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Are there any Mexican beat reporters? And by Mexican, I mean anyone of Latin American descent, obviously.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They’re not lazy, they’re just covering the real stories that fans want to read about, like the time Epstink promised to buy them a shot but they never got one.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
dmick89,
Fwiw, the main vibe I get was that the Boston media leaks etc were blamed mostly on Lucchino and higher up management
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Also fwiw we heard nothing about the Cubs pursuit of Price until today, and the Lackey stuff came out only when it was imminent. I’m probably biased but it sure felt like any Lackey connection before that was just speculation/wishcasting (or reverse wishcasting. Cursecasting?)
berseliusQuote Reply
Millertime,
The employee/employer dichotomy is a pretty archaic model for business that can lead to various misaligned incentives. I would love it if players received non-voting shares/stock options for contributions to the team above their salary, and if salaries in general had a guaranteed base that would cover DL time (think half the current anount per year) with bonuses that could take them up to 150% for league normalized production, with such bonuses paid in part by luxury tax.
A back of the envelope calculation says this would mitigate risk for team, reward small market teams, and encourage players to increase the value of the team as a whole, which can further mitigate their risk from personal injury. With valuations of teams in the billions but no way for players to take part in that explosion except by maximizing their return on the much more limited payroll, which lags the valuation, making it difficult for them to get paid what they are worth.
This will almost certainly never happen. Thoughts beyond that?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
it’s an interesting system to consider. Mostly, I’d just love for players to get a better chance at being able to leverage their skills on the open market.
One thing I’d like to see is the draft re-worked to be more like the IFA signing period. Each team gets a pool based on multiple factors, like revenue, market size, the amount of cartoon birds located on their jerseys, and prior year record. Then players in the draft could actually have some leverage.
MillertimeQuote Reply
…and blood/alcohol level of the players…
????
ceruleanQuote Reply
Gordo says Cubs are close to a deal for Shelby Miller, Baez to Atlanta.
berseliusQuote Reply
I can only assume this is picking up steam now that the twins are making it known that Nolasco is available.
berseliusQuote Reply
Surely the lack of Cubs rumors in the first few years of Thoyer was because the beat guys didn’t have relationships with Thoyer’s people yet. That shit takes time to build up. Which is why the Boston beat guy was breaking Cubs stories.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This is gonna be the year we finally get Brian Roberts.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I just don’t want to get my hopes up, because I can’t handle the dissapointment if they don’t get him.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
It doesn’t hurt, certainly, but look at who is reporting most of the news on the trade talk with the Rays. It’s not like Friedman has been gone a long time, though I’m guessing he was replaced by one of his deputies so I guess I can’t argue with me today (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Gordo shot down his own rumor about 15 minutes later, saying a second source said nothing was close. From what I’ve seen Jesse Rogers is the only one saying that anything is close, Braves or otherwise.
berseliusQuote Reply
John Jay ——————-> Padres
Cardinals <——————- Jederdiah Jerk-O
Figure the Padres got to be picking up some salary there.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Also, Robothal sez Cubes are out on Miller.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/7/71/1162372/card-tricks-nabbing-john-lackey-cubs-chase-jason-heyward
dmick89Quote Reply
Jason Motte ———-> Rockies
dmick89Quote Reply
smh who will clap at Castro’s walk up music now. FIRE EMPSTINK!!
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Could still be Motte if the Cubs decided to go after Carlos Gonzalez. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
So if it’s Baez for Miller, am I wrong to want the Cubs to take that deal?
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
No.
dmick89Quote Reply
Millertime,
No.
It drove me nuts seeing people boiling this down to six years of Baez > three years of Miller. That deal seemed like win-win assuming you believe Miller’s ERA-FIP splits will persist.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m glad the Cubs didn’t take my advice and trade for Chapman at the all-star break. I wanted to use him as a starter, but now he should be used to for women to put their cigarettes out on.
dmick89Quote Reply
A note to baseball, your’e better than the NFL. Act like it.
dmick89Quote Reply
This.
berseliusQuote Reply
People have short memories. They remember the somewhat OK 2015 season and suddenly glowing scouting reports on his defense. They don’t remember the shitfest that was his rookie season and the the scouting reports on his defense prior to last year. Even the Baez from this past season is still probably not enough to get Miller. I think it’s probably Baez plus at least one other highly regarded prospect. If I’m the Braves, there’s no way I trade Miller for Baez alone.
dmick89Quote Reply
I liked that Gordo rumor that the Cubs were going to use their leftover funds from acquiring a relatively cheap starter to go after Heyward. I hope that comes from reliable sources. Yeah, we’d end up giving the Cardinals two draft picks, but they’d basically be fucked in 2016.
dmick89Quote Reply
A mystery team is making a strong bid for Fernandez. If it’s the Cubs, what would they offer that is *strong enough*?
My guess is Rizzo would do it. No one has suggested it, but would that be a bad deal? For starters, it frees up first for Schwarber. However, Rizzo has one of the best contracts—up to 6 more years of club control and is an MVP contender. Fernandez, meanwhile, even with his low arb, isn’t tied up nearly as long (though could be extended).
The more I think about it, I’d say Rizzo for Fernandez straight up is lopsided in favor of the Marlins, and about the same as trading Bryant.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
People still smoke?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think the Cubs probably have enough to get a deal done, but they aren’t going to give up what it would take. They’d have to practically empty the farm system to acquire him. I just don’t see these past few years being thrown away on one guy who has had some injury issues.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Mostly I just want them to land Heyward because they’ll have snagged the Red Sox and Cards top FA priority in consecutive years, and I’m a fucking troll.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Same, but I’d chalk that up more to Fernandez’s injury history.
berseliusQuote Reply
Got to be at least a handful of Tanaka nickels still lying around as well…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
What is the ratio of Tanaka nickels to Schrute Bucks?
berseliusQuote Reply
i’m not entirely sure what the tanaka nickel-to-schrute bucks exchange rate is, but iirc, one tanaka nicklel is worth roughly 3 franklin CDs.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Just sign Heyward and be done with it. Maybe pursue some starting pitching at the deadline. This team has the potential to be really great as it is.
Imagine the deadline value of a healthy Soler, an allstar Castro, a superutility Baez, even a productive Hammel.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Same as the ratio of unicorns to leprechauns.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berselius,
And the years of control—those extra three years, the last two of which are team options, are huge.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This. It really is that easy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, as easy as $200M.
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
What about Baez for Cobb?
MillertimeQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s not my money. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d do it.
dmick89Quote Reply
assuming you’re talking about randall “tex” cobb, yes.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
One step closer to JD’s dream double-play combo of Idiot Face and Jerko.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ugh…I just remembered Jackson’s $13M. If that is what keeps them from Heyward…
They would have to trade Montero, or Castro and Wood, or Hammel and Strop/Soler to free up that amount. This is why I think the hard payroll line is awful. It severely limits optionality.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They should have about $30M more in revenues from tickets alone this year—10% hike plus a full season of bleachers. They stand at about $140M at the moment, right? $160M seems pretty reasonable. Backloading a Heyward deal can bring that to $155M.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Apparently the Cubs are front loading the Lackey deal.
MillertimeQuote Reply
cerulean,
They’re also doing this expensive “Let’s rebuild our crumbling stadium thing”, and I’m guessing that’s priced in to that ticket increase. But we might as well cast runes, it would give us just as much insight on the Cubs budgetary situation.
berseliusQuote Reply
Yeah, we just don’t have any idea what it is. Hoyer said they still have plenty to spend, whatever that means. If the price for Heyward is right, he’ll be a Cub. I’m certain of that. I don’t think they end up getting him, but they’ll be involved.
Speaking of, I remain surprised that we’re now almost halfway through the Winter Meetings and there have been so few rumors about Heyward.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not sure I understand going after Zobrist other than the newly claimed title of being a “winner”. I don’t think much of Baez, but I also don’t think he’d be much worse than Zobrist and would be a hell of a lot cheaper.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, his fWAR more than halved itself from 2014 to 2015. At his age, that doesn’t bode well.
Apparently Cubes are discussing Castro for Gardner as well, to create the spot for BZ.
I think I liked the earlier rumors better… Heyward signing + Baez for young pitching. These current ones are not as good a vintage.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
And apparently, Cubes not wanting Gardner for Castro, according to Joel Shermie.
Kinda heartens me if true. 1. Maybe get something better for Castro. 2. HEYWARD
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Or, this could be about freeing up cash to go after Zobrist and Heyward. Fuck if I know. This is beginning to feel like ye olde shuffling deck chairs.
Except, ya know, the boat’s not sinking.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Zobrist, really? SIGN ALL THE MID TO LATE THIRTIES FREE AGENTS
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
If at the end of this flurry of activity is one Jason Heyward in bluestripes, I’ll be fine with whatever shit they’re doing now to get us there.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I don’t get it.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s like rearranging deckchairs, but paying money for the privilege to do so.
berseliusQuote Reply
This.
berseliusQuote Reply
Only way I can make sense of it is if the return on Castro is enough to make it totally worth replacing him with Zobrist.
Also, because Heyward. Because I will mention him in every post I make until the Cardinals re-sign him.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
berselius,
Breaking up a logjam by removing one log and replacing it with a older, more expensive one.
berseliusQuote Reply
Perhaps it’s been a while since you partook in the activity. It can be quite invigorating. Can’t help but feel like you’ve accomplished something once you’re done.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
From what Julie is hearing, the Cubs probably wouldn’t get anything blockbuster-y for Castro. The only way this makes sense to me is if they’re also looking to move Baez (maybe) and/or Russell (uh, no).
berseliusQuote Reply
Are you also a government employee (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning, Same here, but don't see how that's possible. Not if they actually get Zobrist.
dmick89Quote Reply
Exactly. Will be the first move by this front office that makes me want to puke.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sherman is floating the possibility (or I’m interpreting it that way) the Cubs are going to blink on this and it’s more a ploy to get a non-division rival to pony up more than they would have otherwise.
If so, quite the dangerous game you’re playing, Mr. Epstein. Very dangerous, indeed.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
That’s quite the streak you had going then. Not quite Seinfeld-ian but still pretty good.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Rogers is claiming that if Zobrist and Castro out the door, Cubs’ pursuit of Heyward unaffected.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Then the Cubs have a lot more money to spend that anyone expected and the Cubs beat guys thought they had but a few dollars and change to spend when the offseason began. If they’re that wrong about what the payroll is, their jobs should cease to exist.
dmick89Quote Reply
Even if it’s unaffected, acquiring Zobrist and paying him more than Castro is still dumb. I’d argue that even bothering to open a spot on this team for Zobrist is stupid. I’m the least biggest fan of Baez around these parts and I’m confident over a 3-4 year span that he’d not be a whole lot worse in that same role.
Also, the Cubs won’t get a whole lot for Castro. I’d bet they get a decent reliever in return, which makes sense given how this team is trying to acquire all the relievers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe the first time I’ve ever rooted for the Mets.
dmick89Quote Reply
You should have done that in the NLCS—now the Cubs are almost certain to win.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I just threw up.
dmick89Quote Reply
I call bullshit on that argument. The Cubs org has almost certainly doubled in value since the Ricketts bought it at the nadir of the great recession. I bet the Cubs as they exist right now—debt, stadium, all that—would go for $2.5B minimum.
ceruleanQuote Reply
4 years, $56 million. Ugh.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The bright side: It’s not 4 for $80M.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This has been the most confusing offseason I can remember. The Cubs have spent the past 4 years building through the draft, intl market and trades to get younger. Then in one offseason they blow their load and a 1st round pick on Lackey and Zobrist? If Heyward isn’t the next Cub signing, then I don’t really know WTF the Cubs are doing. Can anyone justify these moves? Make an argument for them? Seems like a very expensive lateral move.
MuckerQuote Reply
It’s the 4 years. I would have rather the Cubs ponied up a few extra million per to get out of the extra year.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Lackey…a little vomit. Zobrist…a little more. Say is Pierzynski available? I want to know what my lunch tastes like now.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Sherman says Castro to Yankees is done pending medicals.
Like I said, if Heyward, it’s all worth it.
Heyward, Zobrist and the rest of our baseball batters is a pretty good lineup, methinks.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I don’t mind that amount in a vacuum, but it’s hard to think of a worse fit for this specific team. (Papelbon excepted)
berseliusQuote Reply
Castro —————————> Yankees
Cubes <————————– Adam Warren and PTBNL
At the rate the Cubs are aging, I'm gonna guess the PTBNL is A-Rod.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I actually don’t hate the Zobrist move. Put him at 2B/3B. He had a 120 or so wRC+ last season, so the bat is very much still there, unless he goes Utley on us.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go find my Sarah McLachlan CD. #CastroForever
MillertimeQuote Reply
and a no trade. What happened to no no-trades? Let’s just give one out to a guy at a position we don’t need to fill. Stop wasting time. We’ve got relievers to sign.
dmick89Quote Reply
At least the Cubs finally started to address their bullpen.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Adam Warren <— Glorified relief pitcher?
KevinQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
But what if it’s Zobrist instead of Heyward?
For the record, I don’t think Zobrist is a bad deal—even with some decline, he will probably be worth his contract—it’s just exceedingly strange.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Millertime,
I like his bat, I’m more worried about defense and base running being a big part of value. We’ve seen first hand what happens with guys on their 30s with knee injuries.
I love that OBP on top of the lineup, but I’d love seeing it next to Heyward’s even more.
berseliusQuote Reply
cerulean,
the contract in itself isn’t so bad if you’re a team that actually needs a 2nd baseman or 3rd baseman or left fielder or even right fielder. A middle infielder coming off his worst season who will be 35 and he gets that contract when you don’t need that position filled? And he gets a no-trade clause. Not to mention that they used funds that could have gone to Heyward.
dmick89Quote Reply
But Zobrist plays all positions. I expect the Cubs to be able to get both Fernandez and Gray with all these now superfluous players, like Rizzo and Bryant and Russell and Soler and Schwarber. Could even get a centerfielder too.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Your opening day lineup
Zobrist, 2B
Schwarber, LF
Bryant, 3B
Rizzo, 1B
Soler, RF
Montero, C
Baez, CF
Russell, SS
Not bad, but regression and a pretty big drop in CF. Improvement at 2nd. I’ll take it. Would have preferred Heyward though.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Agreed. But let’s assume I don’t. I could use a good rant.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs also get Brendan Ryan for Castro
dmick89Quote Reply
Fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I don’t mind Castro being traded. He sucked for much of the season last year, but I’m going to miss the guy. Hope he tears it up in NY.
dmick89Quote Reply
Brendan Ryan?
Can he work out of the bullpen? Because I am confused.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The deal doesn’t really turn me on, but I don’t hate it. I think that Zobrist is a good bet to give you 8 WAR over the life of the deal and that pencils out. I’m not sure why the defensive metrics bottomed out on him last year, but it’s not entirely uncommon to see big shifts happen when a player switches teams. Even if he is declining defensively, the bat is worth two or three wins, if not more (at least at the front end of the deal).
I keep coming back to cost certainty as an issue for the team now that the window is open. You could have stuck with Castro and Baez at 2B coming into this upcoming year, but the former is coming off of four months of looking like the hottest of garbage that was mitigated by a hot streak, and the latter has all of one productive month in the bigs under his belt. Zobrist may be in decline, but you have a good idea of what he’s going to give you in 2016. That’s a couple of wins, and assuming some sort of further help is on the way in the outfield (even if it’s not the help that we all want to see), you put Baez in a position where anything he produces is frosting.
As for Castro, I’ll always root for the guy. But he was pretty much treated like toxic waste on the trade market this last summer and assuming no cash went with him, they just pared $6MM or so off of their payroll and still got a guy who is a young, effective reliever at worst and a mid-rotation starter at best with three years of cheap control left. I have no problem with that deal at all.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Where has it been said that the Cubs are now out on Heyward? What I’ve seen indicates the Castro trade was done to make room for a serious Heyward push.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
This I don’t understand.
uncle daveQuote Reply
The Castro trade looks pretty good for the most part.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
Probably the Only way they could get Warren was if the Cubs took Ryan.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I hope so. I’ll be a bit bummed if they give the guy any burn this year.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Cubs seem to have quite a few swing men in the pen already.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Zobrist is worth two clubhouse leadership wins above replacement
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Can Hammel or Wood be traded? It’s gotten crowded.
Also, I expect the D’bags will take the west.
ceruleanQuote Reply
A 6th starter and a defensive replacement? I guess. Never would have believed it a few years ago.
GWQuote Reply
Shelby Miller ——————-> DBags
Barves <—————————All of the DBags' valuable farm things
Pretty good work by Atlanta. Turned the last year of Jason Heyward and a pitcher whose peripherals suggest he's not very good into a pretty excellent haul of young talent.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
GW,
With the amount owed to Castro and his performance last year and over the last three, they weren’t getting much for him. 7th inning guy is about the best they could do in my opinion and that’s probably how he’ll be used for the Cubs. But yeah, sucks when you think back a few years. That extension also really hurt any trade value he may have had at this point.
dmick89Quote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
The ‘bags aren’t fucking around.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Not sure what the point of that is. They have lots of back-end types, and Miller isn’t very good.
GWQuote Reply
So, turns out Miller actually was worth quite a bit more than Baez. Go figure.
MillertimeQuote Reply
GW,
I’d say he’s a solid #3, with #2 upside, if we’re going by the number system. 2-3 WAR pitcher is solid, and he’s only 25 with a couple years of team control.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
You and larussa are welcome to him.
GWQuote Reply
How does trading Castro and signing Zobrist for 4/56 free up cash? What am I missing?
TheVanQuote Reply
TheVan,
The Castro move frees up the cash to bring in Zobrist without hampering the Cubs’ pursuit of other players. Or so I’ve been told.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
It feels like Zobrist could have done better than 4/56. I wonder if he gave the Cubs a Joe Maddon discount. I feel like I saw something when I stopped for gas saying he had some personal/family reasons for picking Chicago.
berseliusQuote Reply
As an accountant I don’t see how trading Castro’s remaining $38M for Zobrist’s $54M is freeing up cash, but I don’t know enough about baseball contracts to dispute your claim. Well played.
TheVanQuote Reply
TheVan,
I don’t think anyone credible is saying it saves money, just that the extra amount isn’t enough to scuttle a megadeal.
berseliusQuote Reply
Discredited. Or something. Sorry, I was gone for awhile and I forget how the one liners work. I’m just saying if my boss wanted to trade one of our newer assets to another company and they would pay the remaining $38M and we would acquire a much older asset, with maybe slightly better performance, but we’d take on $54M for the older asset…I’d tell him he was an idiot. Especially if he justified it as “freeing up money”. (Which I realize is probably not the case)
TheVanQuote Reply
I think I like the trade and the signing. Would you trade Castro and $19 million for Zobrist, Warren, and Ryan? I tend to think I would. Zobrist only has a year less on his contract than Castro (though Castro is almost certainly going to be better in year 4 of the Zobrist contract than Zobrist is himself).
Warren is a good swingman, and makes the ass end of the bullpen pretty strong (especially with the other acquisitions – something will stick there). I actually think I’d DFA and eat Ryan’s contract; I’d rather have Herrera if he’s better defensively. They are both sub-replacement level with the stick.
I’d rather have Warren start over Wood or Cahill, probably. Not sure about Pierce Johnson (who I’d take a long look at if the situation calls for it).
It’s important to note that Zobrist can lead off. No one else on this team really could (if you squint, maybe Soler).
mylesQuote Reply
TheVan,
I think that the savings refer to trading Castro for Warren and Ryan. That should free up about $4MM for this year (assuming Warren gets $2MM in arbitration, which is just a WAG on my part) as well as $31MM remaining on Castro’s deal. Warren might eat $10MM of that away, but on the whole you’re looking at about $25MM saved.
That doesn’t mean you’re at a lower payroll when you factor in Zobrist, but I’m not sure anyone is making that claim.
uncle daveQuote Reply
All the smart kids in all the smart places seem to think the Cubs did smart things today. Since I have a soft spot for arguments that try to persuade me the Cubs did smart things, I’m just about won over to that side.
Thinking the Cubs are doing dumb things is just not as much fun as it used to be. So: Yay, Zobrist. Yay, Adam Worrell. Cubs are great. Prove me wrong.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
The moves by themselves aren’t bad, but if you believe, like I do, that signing Zobrist more than likely puts Heyward out of reach, then it’s not so great. It Heyward was out of reach anyway, then it’s just a bunch of deck chairs being rearranged.
dmick89Quote Reply
aisle424Quote Reply
Good lord. Someone on BN thinks that Baez, if ranked with the current top 100 prospects, would easily be in the top 20, and would be a top 10.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Nice.
Must admit sticking it to the Mets with Zobrist (and in some roundabout way, Castro) feels good. Getting swept by them in the NLCS makes me want to see them lose a lot, in all aspects of their future endeavors, for the time being.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Millertime,
You don’t think he’d be top 20? MLB Pipeline has Gleyber Torres at 29. I’d much rather have Baez than Torres by a large margin.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
It’d be close for me. I’d be put Baez somewhere in the 40-60 range. His contact issues are still a serious issue, and I’m pretty “meh” on Baez’s defense.
MillertimeQuote Reply
So, the 40 man is at 39 now.
Your courtesy relief pitcher update is up to 14 relief pitchers on the 40-man (not including Pierce Johnson, Dallas Beeler, or Eric Jokisch). DFA candidates include Andury Acevado, Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Yoervis Medina, Edgar Olmos, and Spencer Patton.
Since the last update, Ryan Cook & Jack Leathersich were waiver claims and then DFA’d. Both players elected free agency.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Millertime,
I would disagree with that. Maybe it’s just semantics, but I don’t think he literally has bat-to-ball issues like there’s a whole in his swing. Lingering strikeout issues can be attributed to offering at pitches outside the strike zone at a 40% clip.
Baez has an average contact rate at pitches in the zone. For comparison, Dexter Fowler offered at just 21.3% of pitches outside the zone last year.
I mean, he’s barely 23 years old already in the MLB with an average to slightly below average bat using last year’s performance.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I would much, much rather have Baez than Torres.
MylesQuote Reply
Heyman sez Cubs in on Span and, yes, Heyward. Sounds like Span is the Plan B to Heyward until further notice.
Of course, could be md is right and Cubs can’t do Heyward no matter what and they’re staying in the conversation just to make sure the Cardinals can’t close it for whatever discounted rate they have in mind.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think the exercise of figuring out where Baez would rank if eligible is pointless in two ways: he’s not eligible and more importantly, he’s shown briefly that he can actually play at the MLB level which makes him a “higher” ranked asset than most players who have yet to reach the big leagues. Also, it entirely depend on what the top 20 is. Potential? Then sure, why not? Baez still has tremendous potential and it surpasses most of the top ranked prospects. Then again, the same is true for Bryant, Schwarber and dozens of other players already on MLB rosters. Does the list factor in likelihood of reaching that potential? Then no.
As for Baez’s one decent month in the big leagues, it must also be weighed with his previous shitty months. Even in that one good month, Baez still sucked ass against right handed pitching. He did all his damage against lefties. He sucked against righties despite a BABIP of over .350. His BABIP against lefties was .571.
Baez got lucky last season. He was a bit unlucky the year before.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hmmm. Maybe I really am off on my valuation of Baez, then.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Adam Lind ——————> M’s
Brewers <———————- No first baseman (but other low level minor league stuff)
Nice to see the Reds and Brewers turning themselves into 100-loss teams. Would be good to have some gimmes on the schedule, even if this Cubs team can beat anybody.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I would like to say how happy I am that Dusty Baker is not the manager of the Cubs based on the stupid stuff he said at his press conference. The Nats are out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Does anyone else remember last year when the Nationals were the team full of young superstars who would compete for NL dominance for years to come? Gosh, I hope the Cubs aren’t doomed to repeat the Nats’ mistakes.
Say it with me: there is the theory of the Möbius- a twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop.
umbraQuote Reply
I don’t know that you’re way off. Trying to value him against players who have yet to reach the big leagues isn’t an apples to apples comparison. It’s not even really that important. What is important is calculating his odds of succeeding at the big league level to some modest degree. There’s no formula for it that I’m aware of. Last season Maddon gave him more PT against lefties to help increase his overall production. He took advantage of it and with some BABIP luck he crushed lefties and it offset his shittiness against righties. I expect that Maddon will try to do the same thing with Baez this coming season unless he’s thrown into an every day role in CF. Until Baez starts hitting righties, he belongs nowhere near the starting lineup and considering that righties start close to 70% of the time, expect him to be on the bench quite a bit. And it’s worth stating, he has to continue to hit lefties well, which is no guarantee. His excellent 2015 against lefties improved his wRC+ lefties in his career to 97. If he can do that and the Cubs can limit his PA against righties, he could be valuable to this team.
dmick89Quote Reply
and…
RynoQuote Reply
So apparently co-OC at TCU > OC at Texas
*FU, website. Here’s the gif I tried to post: https://pghgurl.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/pinkman-gtfoh.gif
RynoQuote Reply
Remember that 275-pound defensive end prospect who ran like a 21-second 200m I told you about? Now he’s stunting like a muh-fucker in DET:
https://t.co/L03WHqtaa3
RynoQuote Reply
UT hired a new AD? I thought they just took the interim tag off the current guy. That or I can’t read good. (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Nah, Perrin’s still the AD (as far as I know), but we wiffed when we tried to make the TCU Co-OC our OC.
*Alice in Chains’ Down in a Hole plays*
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Site was update the other day and I forgot to edit that code. I’ll try to get to that later today so you guys can post images.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
You should forget things even more. It really adds to the discreditation of site.
What I am saying is: You win by failing.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Mets ——————> Neil Walker
Pirates —————> Jon Neise
Me ———————> meh
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I was looking to update the roster/payroll for a post sometime this evening and noticed that Cubs.com doesn’t even have Brendan Ryan listed on the roster. Did they release him already?
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
I don’t get that trade for the Pirates. Niese is not that nice and Walker has been near a 3 WAR player every year for the last six. Niese only had one season above league average and one at league average (including his decent batting stats for a pitcher).
ceruleanQuote Reply
THE ONLY WINNING MOVE IS NOT TO PLAY
HOW ABOUT A NICE GAME OF CHESS?
umbraQuote Reply
dmick89,
I don’t think he’s officially in the deal yet. It’s either him or a PTBNL. It might have something to do with the Rule 5 draft? The Cubs might have targeted a player eligble for the rule 5 draft, and Brendan Ryan is the backup plan in case that player gets selected.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Correct because Ryan would take up the last spot on the 40 man which would prevent them from taking someone in the Rule 5 tomorrow (unless they DFA someone).
JonKneeVQuote Reply
That makes sense.
dmick89Quote Reply
He’s the PTBNL. Yankees are doing the Cubs a solid and waiting until after Rule 5 to send him over.Sorry. Didn’t see all the other responses.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
At least we know the chances of Cueto going to the Cardinals are slim to none.
berseliusQuote Reply
umbra,
nothin’ to see here.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
hmm i should have known that adding an image wasn’t going to work since the very comment i was responding to was discussing exactly that issue.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Darwin Barney ————> Blue Jays
dmick89Quote Reply
thanks Obama for letting America’s strategic reserve of grit be pilfered by foreigners
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Looks like the Jays are building a real murderer’s row up there.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Then they’re going to let all those murderers and rapists from Canada enter the country illegally.
dmick89Quote Reply
They haven’t added Cahill yet either. At least two people are getting dropped of the new acquisitions are to be added assuming a Rule 5 pick.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So Chris Davis has had two above average seasons in his last 4 and the Orioles offer 7 years $168 million.
Thanks Orioles, for ruining the possibility of getting Heyward at a good price.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
The longer Heyward is unsigned, is that a good thing or bad thing for the Cubs? I feel like there’s been a lot of speculation that the Cubs are still in on Heyward but has there been any confirmation from Thoyer that they are?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I’m not sure it means much. It doesn’t seem the outfield market has heated up yet. I think the Cubs have a legitimate shot to sign him, but the Cardinals have more incentive to do so.
If the Cubs sign Heyward, are they the best team in baseball entering next season? I’d say yes.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit since this one’s comments are almost full: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-and-cardinals-among-finalists-for-jason-heyward-rumor/
dmick89Quote Reply