As was done in days of yore, dm and I are rolling out projection posts going into the season. We are not doing anything too complicated – just doing some simple averaging of the systems out there with some tweaks of our own if we see them. There will be inherent flaws in this – each system presumably makes different less than obvious assumptions, whether in terms of playing time, league environments, time spent at various positions, etc. But it is good enough to get an idea of what the systems expect and spark some conversation. The players' 2015 numbers are also included at the top of the table.
We'll kick this off with the easiest position to figure out roster-wise, one of only two that is likely to see the same guy get more 95% of the starts.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Anthony Rizzo | 2015 Stats | 701 | 163 | 38 | 3 | 31 | 78 | 105 | 17 | 6 | .278 | .387 | .512 | .384 | -8.9 | 1.9 | 5.5 |
| Anthony Rizzo | ZiPS | 674 | 156 | 33 | 2 | 32 | 74 | 120 | 10 | 5 | .271 | .369 | .502 | .375 | 5 | *** | 4.8 |
| Anthony Rizzo | PECOTA | 649 | 148 | 32 | 2 | 30 | 66 | 123 | 9 | 4 | .264 | .353 | .489 | .369 | 2.7 | -1.5 | 3.8 |
| Anthony Rizzo | CAIRO | 643 | 151 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 71 | 111 | 10 | 5 | .274 | .373 | .502 | .382 | *** | *** | 3.8 |
| Anthony Rizzo | Steamer | 644 | 154 | 33 | 2 | 32 | 72 | 108 | 10 | 7 | .279 | .374 | .519 | .380 | 9.3 | -0.8 | 5.1 |
| Anthony Rizzo | Average | 653 | 152 | 33 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 115 | 10 | 5 | .272 | .367 | .503 | .376 | 5.7 | -1.2 | 4.4 |
It's nice to see the projection systems rosy on Rizzo's defense, a year after fangraphs seemed to be knocking him for it. Which is strange, because according to FG's own advanced stats panel Rizzo was +10 by DRS and +3.4 by UZR, but ended up with a -8.9 defensive rating. Looks like it is a weird position adjustment thing. But why the hell would that not be baked into defensive numbers for a specific position?
Since we are going to hit all the players in these posts, we might as well kill two birds with one stone and remind ourselves of their contract situations. Rizzo will be paid $5m this year, which I am going to go out on a limb and say is a bargain. If I am counting right, this would have been Rizzo's second arb year. He is guaranteed another $25m total over the next three seasons (2017-2019), and the Cubs have team options that can keep min around in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5m each (or $2m buyouts). It is easy to forget how amazing that extension has worked out.
Baez seems to be Rizzo's unofficial backup right now, though if he got any DL time I think that we would probably see Schwarber or maybe Bryant picking up some starts here, due to playing time logjams elsewhere on the roster, if not a Vogelbach callup. Not that the projection systems have a particularly rosy view of Vogey
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Dan Vogelbach | ZiPS | 445 | 95 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 103 | 2 | 3 | .242 | .324 | .387 | .315 | -3 | *** | 0.1 |
| Dan Vogelbach | PECOTA | 250 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 58 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .317 | .386 | .308 | -2.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Dan Vogelbach | CAIRO | 414 | 83 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 86 | 3 | 3 | .226 | .306 | .352 | .294 | *** | *** | -0.2 |
| Dan Vogelbach | Steamer | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .246 | .319 | .387 | .310 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Vogelbach | Average | 279 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 62 | 1 | 2 | .236 | .317 | .378 | .307 | -1.7 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
After some quick googling, injuries seem to be the main excuse for his relative power outage last year in AA, but his power numbers in general are a lot lower than I thought. He slugged only .450 in 500 PAs in A ball in 2013, .429 in 560 PAs in high A in 2014, and .425 in 313 PAs last year. The walk rates are amazing, but I never would have guessed that his power numbers were so low. It is not just a batting average thing, his ISOs have been in the 150-160 range. Weird.
Comments
yeah i think vogelbach had like a 6-week stretch where he was hitting a homer in almost every game and a lot of people extrapolated way too much from that. i think with minor leaguers it’s pretty easy to only pay attention when someone is particularly good or bad and that snapshot just kind of sticks in your head as your overall impression of that player.
anyone know what specifically PECOTA is looking at that accounts for the more negative outlook on rizzo? is PECOTA just more conservative in general?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
who is the other one? i am assuming heyward and bryant will both qualify for this…
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I don’t know about anyone else, but if #trynottosuck isn’t the official slogan this year, then this org will never win a WS.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Bryant. Heyward should get as many PAs, but not all at the same position. (We’re planning to break these down by position instead of player).
berseliusQuote Reply
New podcast is complete, should be up tomorrow assuming I don’t take forever to hack it together. Only 7-8 dropped connections due to my continuing shitty internet.
berseliusQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
From what I remember, Pecota has historically been the most conservative system. Something has to balance out Bill James after all
berseliusQuote Reply
Nice to get these started. I’ll get the LF one out sometime in the next few days.
For wOBA on PECOTA, I calculated it using last year’s weights according to Fangraphs. It’s not exact, but it’s the best I could do since they don’t project wOBA.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I’ve been dealing with shitty internet lately too. Tech guys have come out about 4 times. I had tried 3 different routers with no success so I hooked up a router that’s about 5 or 6 years old and we haven’t had a drop in 24 hours. Best it’s been in awhile. I’m not convinced that’s the issue though.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
My issues are due to living out in the boonies and a telecom that’s over a year past their promised broad-ish-band delivery date. 1-2 foot thick adobe walls don’t help either (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
Austin Jackson ———-> CHW, 1/5
berseliusQuote Reply
I have vague recollections that I may have dreamt (I have been delirious lately) of a FanGraphs post about the defensive rating being position independent when calculating player value. So yes, Rizzo is an excellent first baseman, but after positional adjustment, is still worse defensively than most other players.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Podcasts are so ten years ago.
I will listen on my internet that is somehow shittier than it was then.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is the post I was thinking of.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Ok, I see where it is coming from, just strange semantics I guess. It’s just a matter of where you put the positional adjustment. I’d rather it was lumped into the offenseive side (i.e. this player’s offensive value relative to others at the position) or even better separately in the final WAR calculation. I get why they did it, but it’s too easy to look at it and say “Rizzo is a shitty defender at 1b”
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I’m fine with them breaking it out, just don’t call the stat Defense, because like you said, it makes some good defenders at their position look like shitty ones.
Apparently naming things isn’t hard only in computer science.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This I don’t understand at all. Why are Reuters news stories being “funded in part” by corporations? It wasn’t tech news, it was about the Dem debate.
(I realize this is a Cubs blog, but I don’t know any discredited media blogs)
EDIT: Never mind http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/feb/08/reuters-carries-sponsorship-of-its-us-presidential-coverage
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Fangraphs had Rizzo’s fielding at +3.4 (UZR). His positonal adjustment was -12.9. FG wasn’t “knocking” him for his defense except insofar as he played the least demanding position.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You could also just put the cursor over “def” and it tells you the definition.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Anyway, the reason “def” includes positional adjustment is because some players change positions. It doesn’t make sense to say someone is -1 on defense when he’s -5 at SS and +4 at 2B.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do. but thanks.
I get why they did it, but what you mention is what I would have guessed that they did for someone like Starlin or Zobrist. Guess it’s just an intuition fail on my part (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
New pod arriving later this morning
berseliusQuote Reply
In related news, My Colt ——-> DFA
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
I haven’t heard anything this year about how his eyes are finally fixed.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/ov-podcast-11/
berseliusQuote Reply