Cubs running out of options in the bullpen?

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius169 Comments

One of the recent Effectively Wild team previews (the Braves*?) mentioned a subtle issue that one team was dealing with last year. Namely, that all but one player in their bullpen was out of options and it severely limited their flexibility over the course of the season to ship in fresh arms when they occasionally needed them. Meanwhile, the pool of pitching that the Cubs have put together to compete for roster spots this year might have a similar issue, either due to the direct lack of options or due to service time requirements that allow players to refuse an assignment to the minors. 

Excluding the first four rotation members, here is the list of players competing for the fifth spot and the pen, along with their effective option status. Some guys on the first list do in fact have options, but can refuse assignments to AAA due to accumulated service time. (H/t to TCR for the useful options status table)

Not/Not Easily Optionable

  • Hector Rondon
  • Justin Grimm
  • Pedro Strop
  • Travis Wood
  • Trevor Cahill
  • Adam Warren
  • Rex Brothers
  • Clayton Richard
  • Neil Ramirez

Has Options that can be exercised easily

  • Kyle Hendricks
  • CJ Riefenhauser
  • Carl Edwards Jr
  • Spencer Patton
  • Aaron Brooks

Looking this over, this makes the bullpen debate much less of a debate. I still think Hendricks ends up with the fifth starter spot, and I think the first six guys in the non-optionable list are going to make the team anyway. It's also much easier to imagine that Aaron Brooks is going to be starting in AAA, since none of the rest of the Cubs converted starters can go anywhere.

Joe seems to like an eight man pen, so Richard is probably in, but if another lefty looks good he might be the next to get the axe. The Cubs seem to like having him around, but they also liked him so much that they DFA'd him last summer. 

My best guess is that Ramirez and Richard grab the last two pen spots, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a minor trade or two before the season starts. There have already been rumors of Travis Wood being a trade target this offseason.

*It's tough to remember which team this was, I was plowing through those previews last week pretty quickly. Apologies to the Braves if it wasn't them, I wouldn't want to accuse a franchise of white-flight taxpayer-swindlers of poor roster management. 

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Comments

  1. JonKneeV

    Seems odd to me that Neil Ramirez has accumulated enough service time to refuse assignment. He’s only been on the active roster for most of 2014 and some of 2015 (unless he was on a DL rehab assignment for that long period).

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  2. Myles

    I wonder if we could get a competitive balance pick for Travis Wood. I think I’d be pretty happy with that, especially since our pool is so incredibly low.

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  3. Author
    berselius

    Reading the fine print, I oversimplified things a little bit on the “not optionable” guys. Adam Warren, Rex Brothers, and Justin Grimm wouldn’t be able to become FAs if optioned, but they would have to pass through waivers. Technically this is also true of Jake Arrieta.

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  4. dmick89

    8 relievers was unfortunately a necessity last season when you had the revolving door for the 5th spot and Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks in the 3rd and 4th spots. Arrieta, Lester and Lackey should average 6.5+ innings per start over the course of the season. The Cubs addressed the primary reason they needed 8 relievers last year so I’d expect by May they’ll carry 7 in the bullpen assuming good health.

    I said awhile back that I didn’t think any spots were up for grabs after they signed Fowler. I still think that’s true.

    Arrieta
    Lester
    Lackey
    Hendricks
    Hammel

    Rondon
    Strop
    Grimm
    Wood
    Cahill
    Richard
    Warren
    Ramirez (wouldn’t surprise me if it’s Edwards though)

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  5. cerulean

    Trevor Cahil

    I expect more errors of omission from this blog.

    CJ Riefenhauser

    Pretty sure it’s Carl. Carl Scheissenhauser, Jr.

    Aaaron Brooks

    Is this because he will start in AAA?

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  6. Author
    berselius

    cerulean,

    This is because I banged the post out while waiting for my car to defrost/coffee to brew. Clearly I would not havee made a speling error otherwist. Who needs spelling at 6:30 am anyway?

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  7. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    SS Baez
    LF Schwarber
    3B Bryant
    RF Soler
    DH Victorino
    C Ross
    1B Davis
    CF Perez
    2B Negron
    SP Hendricks

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  8. Ryno

    And it sounds like MIA is going to rescind the transition tag they put on Olivier Vernon. That could be big for CHI, GB and SF, even though GB and SF rarely make FA splashes that big.

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  9. Ryno

    MAAAAN, OAK is working FA. Signing Osemele and Bruce Irvin and they’re rumored to be in on like every other player.

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  10. Ryno

    And Shaq Lawson’s combine performance eases all my worry about his athleticism. It was all scheme. I might like him more than Bosa.

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  11. Mucker

    Ryno, you think Lawson could play 5T? He seems a little light in the pants for 5T. He seems like a perfect 7T. I’m hoping for Buckner for the Bears.

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  12. Ryno

    Mucker,

    I think he could be a 5T in that he could shade outside the OT, but not in the sense that he’d 2-gap.

    I agree with him being a 7T in that role, but he’s SO good when blockers try to engage him that I’d line him up just outside the weakside OT.

    I think a lot of teams are hoping for Buckner. He might be the most disruptive player in the draft.

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  13. Mucker

    Ryno,

    Does Fangio normally 2-gap his DEs? If no, then he might work out. I think Fangio was handcuffed this year with the lack of talent on the Bears D. Outside of McPhee, Goldman and occasionally Young and Houston, there really wasn’t anybody worth a damn, especially at DE.

    If Bears can get Trevathan, who would you pair him with at ILB in this draft? Ragland? Lee? I see Trevathan as more of the Jack. I think Ragland is a perfect Mike.

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  14. Ryno

    Mucker,

    Fangio’s scheme in SF was mostly a 1-gap. Honestly, though, they were in nickel and a 4-3 Under front more than anything, so Aldon Smith and Ray McDonald/Ahmad Brooks were used more as 4-3 DEs than 34 OLBs. I could see a similar front in CHI.

    Fangio was spoiled with two ILBs that could play any role in SF. I’m sure he’d like something similar in CHI. Jack, Ragland and Lee most fit that bill, from what I’ve seen so far.

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  15. Mucker

    Ryno,

    It seems most 3-4 teams are not using the traditional 3-4 front. Teams are getting creative from where they are lining guys up and disguising where the pressure is coming from. Seems like it’s mostly a Hybrid style defensive front more than a 3-4. I think having versatile defensive front 7 players is key in today’s NFL.

    I think Jack is long gone before 11 but if he’s there, he’s my choice. I think I like Lee a little better than Ragland. He seems like he’ll be better in coverage. But I didn’t watch any tape, just speculating.

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  16. Mucker

    Ryno,

    I think the Bears need pass rushers. I would definitely look at Vernon but something tells me the Bears won’t. Bears have about $45 mil in cap space so they have plenty of money to spend. No excuse not to improve this team this year between their cap space and draft position.

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  17. Ryno

    Mucker,

    Vernon makes a lot of sense, as there aren’t many edge rushers in this draft. And none are really elite, imo.

    Mucker,

    I think teams are realizing how versatile they have to be defensively, which is why you’re seeing guys that can play slot CB AND safety or safeties playing LB. That’s why I hate to even really talk scheme because it’s more about finding guys who win in a way you need.

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  18. Mucker

    Ryno,

    Do you think Vernon is elite? PFF seems to love him. He’s only 25 but I read he’s looking for $15mil a year. He’ll be a Jaguar probably. Bears won’t spend that on him.

    Agreed.

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  19. Ryno

    Mucker,

    Put it this way: I’d be fine giving him above-average money for the position if I needed an edge rusher and thought I could be competitive this season.

    Almost forgot to tell you to check out Charles Tapper. He’s raw as shit, but he also might be the best athlete of all draftable edge rushers. I wrote about him yesterday: http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/Scouting-the-NFL-Draft-EDGE-Charles-Tapper-371407261.html

    Just save that link, because I’m trying to add 4-5 profiles per week and I update the list at the bottom.

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  20. Mucker

    Ryno,

    I dig it. If I felt Vernon was a fit, I’d pay the money. It’s not everyday 25 year old pass rushers come along like Vernon.

    I saw him in the combine. Looks very athletic. Interesting to see if someone reaches on him. Like you said, the potential is very intriguing.

    Awesome, I’ve got it saved. Great work on those profiles. You should take Kiper’s job. But that means you have to work for ESPN so it’s probably not worth it.

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  21. Ryno

    Mucker,

    Thanks! I feel like I have a ways to go to get to that point, but I’m at least more confident in my ability to judge talent based only on watching tape.

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  22. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Fowler
    RF Heyward
    2B Zobrist
    1B Rizzo
    C Montero
    SS Russell
    3B Candelario
    DH Vogelbach
    LF Perez
    SP Jay Carrieta

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  23. Author
    berselius

    Suburban kid,

    I think officially official. I know Lackey and I think Lester have thrown simulated games instead of regular ST ones, I wouldn’t be surprised if the same was true for Arrieta.

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  24. Suburban kid

    The Obstructed View Podcast has returned!

    I listened to every word.

    But it would be easier if you could manage your audio levels. I be cranking it up when b talks and then sitrick comes in at a million decibels.

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  25. Mucker

    Somebody help me understand Neil Ramirez not being a lock to be in the bullpen? Is it the injury? He was outstanding in 14 so maybe the Cubs want to see how his arm is?

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  26. Author
    berselius

    Suburban kid,

    I’m just trying to reflect reality in this pod, most people can’t hear half of what I say anyway.

    This has been a problem in the past, I just forgot to crank up my track when mixing. It’s spring training for me too.

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  27. Author
    berselius

    Mucker: He was outstanding in 14 so maybe the Cubs want to see how his arm is?

    If they get 2014 Ramirez he’s definitely a lock, but the jury’s still out.

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  28. Mucker

    berselius,

    Is there concern about his shoulder? I guess his success is predicated off his ability to hit upper 90s on his fastball? I thought he had good breaking pitches too? I don’t know enough about him.

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  29. Author
    berselius

    Mucker,

    He spent the offseason strengthening his shoulder, fwiw. But his fastball velocity was definitely down last year after he came back from his injuries, and it was easily his best pitch in 2014.

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  30. dmick89

    Mucker:
    Somebody help me understand Neil Ramirez not being a lock to be in the bullpen?Is it the injury?He was outstanding in 14 so maybe the Cubs want to see how his arm is?

    I think it’s Ramirez or Edwards for that last spot. If Ramirez is even remotely healthy at the end of spring training, it will be him for that final spot in my opinion.

    I don’t really see any open spots on this roster and I like it. That’s a great problem to have entering spring training.

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  31. Ryno

    Sounds like DEN is making a push to trade for Kaepernick. I hope they do and rescue him from that dysfunctional organization.

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  32. Mucker

    Ryno,

    I’m not a fan of Kaepernick but you have to imagine he needs a change of scenery at this point. What do you think the 49ers can pry from the Broncos?

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  33. dmick89

    Suburban kid,

    I’ve always thought that was something the experts said because they wanted to sound smart. Is there any reason that pitchers should be ahead of hitters that you can think of? I haven’t come up with any that seem reasonable. I remember Steve Stone used to say that all the time. 5 times a game early in spring training.

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  34. Ryno

    Mucker,

    He is what he is. Harbaugh recognized it and tailored a system to fit him. Kaepernick performed poorly when they tried to turn him into a pocket passer. DEN is smart enough to recognize this also.

    Word is SF wants a 2 and DEN wants to give up a 3.

    Word is that two other teams are also trying to trade for him, but I think that’s SF trying to land that 2.

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  35. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Baez
    LF Schwarber
    3B Bryant
    RF Soler
    C Ross
    DH Candelario
    1B Davis
    2B Mendy
    SS Negron
    SP Lester

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  36. Mucker

    Ryno,

    Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. He looked good with Harbaugh early on. 49ers have the leverage I would imagine. Broncos don’t have a QB. I’d stick with that 2nd and tell Broncos to take it or leave it.

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  37. Suburban kid

    dmick89,

    I thought it was because pitchers report to ST a week ahead of hitters that aren’t catchers. But that tradition seems to be waning, at least with this team, so I got nothin

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  38. Mucker

    Ryno,

    It’s amazing how incompetent some of these teams are. Mind boggling. I say this in jest all the time but with some teams, I actually think I could do a better job.

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  39. dmick89

    Suburban kid,

    I always figured pitchers reported a week earlier because it was thought they needed a week longer to prepare. I’m not sure that’s true. Greg Maddux once said it only took a few weeks to get ready for the season so most of spring training is pointless in terms of player preparation.

    It would be easy enough to figure out whether or not pitchers have an early advantage over hitters. Well, easy enough for someone who actually wanted to analyze it. Are fewer runs scored early in spring training when you factor in weather? My guess is no, but all I really know is that right now the Cubs offense is at least a week behind all the pitchers. (dying laughing)

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  40. dmick89

    Another way to look at that would be to look at rehab assignments. It seems to me that pitchers do tend to have longer rehab assignments so maybe they do need more time to get in playing shape. Or maybe the rehab assignments for pitchers are treated more cautiously due to many of them being arm injuries.

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  41. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    I don’t know if that is true for every pitcher…it’s probably safe to say Maddux is a bit of an outlier. I have always felt 95% of the reason spring training is so long is the need to stretch out pitchers.

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  42. dmick89

    Myles,

    I’m not concerned in a way that it has in any way changed my expectations. That would be silly. Victorino has batted DH and cleanup. I’d just rather they win. More importantly, I’d like to see some offense because watching or following Arizona games without offense kind of sucks.

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  43. dmick89

    berselius:
    dmick89,

    I don’t know if that is true for every pitcher…it’s probably safe to say Maddux is a bit of an outlier. I have always felt 95% of the reason spring training is so long is the need to stretch out pitchers.

    You’re right, but I remember other players (as announcers) also saying spring training was too long. Maddux probably got up to full potential much more quickly than the average player did, but 7 or so weeks is probably too long. I’d think that teams would be better off saving their pitchers a few weeks of work.

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  44. Millertime

    Rich Hill is pitching for Oakland right now (against the Dodgers). Gets the first two out easily, then walks the next 3, falls behind 3-0, then gives up a 3-1 bases clearing double. Some things never change.

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  45. Suburban kid

    dmick89: I’d like to see some offense because watching or following Arizona games without offense kind of sucks.

    There is one solution to this issue you might consider.

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  46. Suburban kid

    I think it was Santo who pointed out today’s players don’t really need it the way his generation did, because of year-round conditioning and personal trainers and all.

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  47. Millertime

    dmick89,

    I always wish things would have turned out better for him. It was cool to seem him have 1 month last season where he pitched like the best in baseball. I never figured it would stick, but still.

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  48. Millertime

    I wasn’t going to say anything when the Cubs were 1-7, but now that they’re 1-8, I think we need to start having a serious conversation about whether or not the 2nd season of Better Caul Saul is doing well.

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  49. JonKneeV

    Not/Not Easily Optionable

    Hector Rondon
    Justin Grimm
    Pedro Strop
    Travis Wood
    Trevor Cahill
    Adam Warren
    Rex Brothers
    Clayton Richard
    Neil Ramirez

    False.

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  50. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Fowler
    RF Heyward
    2B Zobrist
    1B Rizzo
    SS Russell
    C Montero
    LF Victorino
    DH Vogelbach
    3B Candelario
    SP Lackey

    No tv today

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  51. Rizzo the Rat

    So, the three big position-player siginings (conveniently batting in the top three lineup positions) are all batting under .100.

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  52. EnricoPallazzo

    berselius,

    Is that for real? Also, is that any different than any other cardinals game? Also, could there ever be a more sanctimonious group of people ever gathered in one place?

    If I had unlimited time and money, I think I would go to that game. The people-watching value would be off the charts.

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  53. cerulean

    dmick89:
    berselius,

    (dying laughing). When is Caucasian Day?

    It’s been rechristened Trump Day.

    Side note—apparently typing “move” into Google autocompletes “to Canada”. Last night’s The Daily Show was particularly enjoyable.

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  54. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    He was never preferable to me. It would have been a win either way. Friedman was more realistic because I didn’t think it was really possible to get Theo, but once that became possible, I thought he was the obvious choice considering he’d already had great success with a franchise that is in many ways similar to the Cubs.

    I think GW wrote something here or at ACB about this. The gist of it is in my head, but would take too long to explain. Maybe I’ll look for the article, but it pretty much summed up my opinion perfectly.

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  55. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    The comment wasn’t pointed at anyone here, just what I recall the general mood of interweb Cubdom being when Friedman’s name popped up. Me, I was just happy to see ownership looking at top names for once rather than retreads or meathead traditionalists.

    It is odd to see someone as intelligent as Friedman and that Dodger FO adopt a Kershaw + every-broken-pitcher-we-can-find strategy for their 2016 rotation.

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  56. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    FWIW, I think most Cubs fans assumed Theo was off the table, but once rumors started, I think most Cubs fans were behind that. If you’d have asked me mid 2011, I’d have said that Theo would obviously be at the top of their list, but isn’t a reasonable option since it was unlikely he’d leave Boston. Then Boston went to shit and the possibility of him leaving became more and more likely.

    Regardless, the Cubs are in great hands and it’s fucking awesome to be a fan of this team right now.

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  57. myles

    I guess I’ll be the minority opinion and say that I would have definitely preferred Friedman to Epstein. I think I’ve always went Friedman -> Epstein -> Daniels -> everyone else.

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  58. Smokestack Lightning

    myles:
    I guess I’ll be the minority opinion and say that I would have definitely preferred Friedman to Epstein. I think I’ve always went Friedman -> Epstein -> Daniels -> everyone else.

    Theo chortles at your foolishness. And so do I.

    (IIRC, I slightly preferred AF too).

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  59. cerulean

    myles,

    I definitely thought that Theo was competent, more competent than most, but Jim Hendry put together arguably the best teams in our lifetimes—proof that so much of baseball is variance. I was mildly excited about having Theo run the operations, but I should have been more excited because he was given free reign over all of the operations—which were a clusterfuck that I don’t think Hendry had the green light to do anything about. (I actually think that Hendry had disincentives to invest in the future operations of the club.) That is what has made the biggest difference, in my opinion.

    So really, Theo, Friedman, Daniels, even some young guy no one has heard of willing to try something new, we couldn’t go wrong because Ricketts got the hell out of the way. It has also helped that pretty much every trade and draft has gone the right direction, especially Rizzo, Bryant, Arrieta, and Russell.

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  60. dmick89

    cerulean: I should have been more excited because he was given free reign over all of the operations—which were a clusterfuck that I don’t think Hendry had the green light to do anything about.

    yeah, I think the jobs these two have had are in many ways completely different. I’m glad that’s so.

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  61. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    I think any team would have priced the draft pick situation in with Fowler or any other player who forces a team to give up a draft pick. Sounds like the O’s just went about it the wrong way in terms of talking to the player about it.

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  62. Author
    berselius

    myles,

    I can’t remember what I felt at the time re: Epstein vs Friedman, but I do remember that the bigger concern was whether the new owners would actually give the new management free rein, or if there would be some executive meddling to help prop up their purchase. Things have certainly turned out well, the only stuff that felt forced on the team were the Kerry Wood signing (meh) and the clumsily rolled out Clark stuff, which didn’t have anything to do with the actual baseball ops dept.

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  63. Author
    berselius

    Suburban kid:
    Rice Cube,

    I’m trying to think of a point of view in which the Orioles aren’t being complete assholes but I can’t.

    I still sometimes get Angelos and Dan Snyder mixed up, due to the constant bitching about both when I lived in the DC area.

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  64. Smokestack Lightning

    berselius,

    I was more inclined to Friedman at the time because I assumed the Cubs would be pinching pennies indefinitely, and AF seemed more capable of thriving under that sort of restriction, as he had done so his entire career in TB thus far.

    But when Theo signed on, I realized that assumption was faulty. No way Theo signs on if the Cubs were planning to skimp for another decade or two.

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  65. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89,

    According to BN, it sounds like fowler and the O’s basically agreed on a deal and then the o’s said “ok now subtract out the cost of a draft pick.” which if true, is complete bullshit and just a ridiculous way to negotiate.

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  66. Smokestack Lightning

    EnricoPallazzo:
    dmick89,

    According to BN, it sounds like fowler and the O’s basically agreed on a deal and then the o’s said “ok now subtract out the cost of a draft pick.” which if true, is complete bullshit and just a ridiculous way to negotiate.

    Sounds like Baltimore figured they were Fowler’s only option at that point and unfortunately treated him like it.

    If this take is true, just a dumbfuck way to handle business. Even if you’ve got the upper hand in FA negotiations, it’s rarely ever wise to act like it. People get pissed enough, they’ll sometimes risk fucking themselves so long as it means they get to fuck you too.

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  67. Millertime

    “they’ll sometimes risk fucking themselves so long as it means they get to fuck you too.”

    What is every frat guy’s strategy at the bars on a Saturday night.

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  68. dmick89

    EnricoPallazzo:
    dmick89,

    According to BN, it sounds like fowler and the O’s basically agreed on a deal and then the o’s said “ok now subtract out the cost of a draft pick.” which if true, is complete bullshit and just a ridiculous way to negotiate.

    I find it hard to believe that the O’s did that. The O’s probably just slipped up and confirmed that they’d already subtracted out the cost of the draft pick and Fowler then asked for the opt-out knowing there was no way they’d do that after one season. Essentially, he was wanting to be let off the hook so he could sign with the Cubs. Who knows though? The O’s are a fucked up organization

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  69. dmick89

    berselius,

    I would have been disappointed if the Cubs broke camp with Hendricks not in the rotation. He was far from great, but he was pretty good in his first full season. Not to mention, he limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground, which are things this organization has looked for in pitchers.

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  70. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89:
    Pierce Johnson is not having a good spring. I actually thought he looked pretty good in that first game, but he’s looked terrible since.

    to what extent should i give a shit about ST performances from guys that are guaranteed to be in iowa (at best) once the regular season starts? i’m not being a smartass; i’m just wondering if it’s logical to give a lot of leeway to arrieta/lester et al by saying that they’re just working stuff out, trying new pitches, etc, and then making judgements on the younger guys for the same shit. i would assume that the younger guys are also not really trying to put their best stuff out there but i maybe i’m wrong. i guess i just see ST performance in general as completely arbitrary but maybe the vets and the young guys should be held to different standards?

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  71. myles

    The only shit I give at all about ST performance is if something is obviously injury-related. The games mean so little, and the goals of the individual players are so varied (“just throw fastballs today,” “throw from the stretch all game,” “work behind in counts”), that results are misleading.

    That said, it’s better to be good than bad, so Pierce Johnson being bad COULD be him working on specific things with Chris Bosio, or it COULD be that he sucks. We won’t really know until we get more data.

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  72. Author
    berselius

    myles,

    For veterans, I don’t really give a fuck. For guys who are in actual position battles I care a little bit – it’s like the NFL combine, your number itself doesn’t matter that much, but as long as you show up and are credible that’s fine. Which is completely the wrong way to think about it, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, that’s what my brain defaults to.

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  73. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Fowler
    RF Heyward
    1B Rizzo
    LF Schwarber
    3B Jeimer
    2B Baez
    C Federowicz
    DH Mendy
    SS Kawasaki
    SP #ClayDick

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  74. dmick89

    myles: The only shit I give at all about ST performance is if something is obviously injury-related.

    Same here, but it’s discouraging watching a guy who has been a starter getting lit up in short stints. Definitely need more data as you say. Should probably consider it to be nothing at this point. I was just remarking on it and was surprised because he looked a lot better than I was expecting in that first appearance of his. I still think he’s a middle to back of the rotation starter.

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  75. dmick89

    berselius,

    From the comments.

    No Sammy detractor doesn’t acknowledge that he was important to the Cubs and gave a lot to them. But he was paid extremely well and also crippled the reputation of the team nationally.

    So crippled the team was sold for more than it was worth. (dying laughing)

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