OSS: My original title was "Cubs a fuckload, Reds not nearly as many," but I want to trick people into still coming to this website.
Three Up
1. Kris Bryant absolutely crushed one down the left field line for a HR. He also had 2 walks. He might be heating up.
2. Miguel Montero is good. He had 3 runs scored, 2 walks, and another hit. He also had a decent game behind the plate.
3. Jorge Soler had a really good game (2-2, BB), but Jason Heyward had a sick-nasty catch in RF that made me jump out of my seat. He added a 2-run single and has just generally been extremely pleasant to watch play baseball.
Three Down
1. All of the Alfredo Simon couldn't get out of the first inning, and the Cubs notched their second 40+ pitch inning of the year. There will be a lot more where that came from, methinks.
2. This location. There aren't many times that you are going to get that lucky working in the middle of the zone.
3. Brandon Phillips had the low WPA of the game for hitters, and has looked pretty bad this series in general.
Next Game
7:05 PM CST
Iglesias vs. Hammel
TV: CSN
Radio: 670 the Score
Comments
Maybe some more click-baity titles for these posts. “You’ll never believe how many runs the Cubs scored…”. “This one trick helped the Cubs put up 5+ runs”. “Opposing pitchers hate this one lineup…”.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Obama doesn’t want you to know how good this lineup is
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubs 9, Reds 1 (dying laughing)
(The discredit is strong with this one)
This team.
The Cubs have now scored 56—tied for most runs with LA in one fewer played. They have given up only 20 runs, second to Washington’s 17 in one more game played, so a very close second on a per game basis. This seems very unsustainable, but the way they methodically eat through starting pitchers doesn’t seem like it’s prone to as much statistical regression on the scoring side. The pitching, however, will not be this good. So what does that look like? Even at 4.5 RA a game, the Cubs are still a plus 20 runs—a plus 405 over 162 games.
With the Warriors still on my mind, I think it’s worth imagining what a baseball team analog would be like. The Warriors broke basketball with the 3-point shot, lead by the Messi of the sport. (Steph Curry: also impossible.) It’s a shot invented to counteract the traffic jam around the rim. For decades, it has been used almost exclusively for that purpose, despite a .33 FG% being equal to a .50 FG% of two-point shots. And the Warriors are are turning the adage of living and dying by the three into a feast.
That’s what the Cubs have been doing with their patience thus far. And while the strikeouts are numerous—Heyward for instance K-ed twice in the first but saw 11 pitches—they are also loading up the bases and wearing down pitchers so that the hits that come often drive in runs. And knowing what we know about the statistics of different counts, pitchers are more likely to take a chance at making sure the first pitch is a strike, and the power of even the Addison Russells of the lineup is enough to make them pay—to the tune of 388 feet into a crowd of excitement-drunken fans (though the Old Style swill helped).
Controlling that strike zone is that spacing on the floor, and this team is willing to do what dawned on Almora last year—to take what they are given, even if it means an eventual strikeout, because the reward over the course of the game and the series outweighs it. The goal is not a walk, the goal is to have that option. (Note also that the Cubs’ pitching strategy has been to limit walks more than anything else.)
In that regard, the Cubs are analogous to the Warriors in exploiting a wrinkle of the game that has always been there but is often overlooked for putting the ball in play, the elbow jumper of baseball. Because I am a homer, I said 105 wins for this team. And because I am a homer, I think they have a legitimate chance of winning the most games in the regular season since the 2001 Mariners, though losing Schwarber hurts significantly. But I will temper such speculation until they have gone 19–1 or 26–4. If they start out 73–9…well…get excited because that is, dare I say, impossible.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Maybe next time the Reds should send out Simon Alfredo instead of Alfredo Simon. It couldn’t be much worse.
berseliusQuote Reply
True
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berselius,
You probably think this post is about you.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
Shut me right up
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Jokisch ————> Sea
Cubs 40-man ———–> 39
This feels more like the Cubs doing Jokisch a solid than any sort of precursor to something else. No way he cracks the rotation any time soon unless things are a complete disaster.
berseliusQuote Reply
With the Rams trading for the first pick in the draft (to draft a QB), CLE’s pick at No. 2 just got way more valuable.
If the first six picks go like I think they will…
1. LAR – Carson Wentz
2. ? – Jared Goff
3. SD – Laremy Tunsil
4. DAL – Jalen Ramsey
5. JAX – Myles Jack
6. BAL – DeForest Buckner
…I predict SF will pick Shaq Lawson over Joey Bosa.
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
To clarify, Jokisch was claimed on waivers by the Mariners, not dumped in the ocean.
berseliusQuote Reply
And good move bringing back the faget points.
RynoQuote Reply
Do you think Wentz was worth the haul the Rams just gave up to (presumably) get him?
berseliusQuote Reply
Just glad SD gets Tunsil, looks like.
mylesQuote Reply
berselius,
I was hoping the Cubs front office was so good they created a new transaction.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
He has the potential to be, but I wouldn’t have made that trade for him. Goff is a safer bet and more likely to be the better QB, imo.
Paxton Lynch is a Round 2 guy for me, but I’d rather spend a late 1 on him than take Wentz. Lynch is 2 years younger than Wentz and has just as much upside.
RynoQuote Reply
myles,
I’d guess they get whichever non-qb they want. I’d bet on Tunsil or Buckner.
RynoQuote Reply
I’m ready to see Javy start playing two innings a game at all 9 positions.
andcountingQuote Reply
I watched most of the top QBs in this draft and I have them:
1
Goff
Wentz
2
Vernon Adams
Paxton Lynch
4
Cardale Jones
5
Cody Kessler
Dak Prescott
7
Jake Rudock
RynoQuote Reply
I have a feeling the umpire behind the plate would not allow this.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ryno,
Don’t the Rams already have Goff on their roster under the alias Nick Foles?
MuckerQuote Reply
fist bump and middle finger icons now up for like/dislike comments. Cerulean’s idea so if you hate it, blame him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mike Leake through two starts
10.1 IP
6.1 K/9
3.48 BB/9
6.97 ERA
4.30 xFIP
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
*whistles past John Lackey’s line*
berseliusQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Mucker,
They want Wentz, imo.
RynoQuote Reply
DFA = Dumped in the Fucking Atlantic
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Can you guys smite this post? I wanna see if it actually turns red.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Marlins claimed Jokisch, BTW, so Atlantic indeed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fist bump, middle finger approved. But can’t understand why I can’t dislike my own posts. This place is not schizo-inclusive.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Ryno,
They spent that much to get Wentz? How does Fisher still have a job?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
That’s a good question. He seems like a piece of shit to me.
RynoQuote Reply
Won’t happen. It hides the comment if it gets a lot of down votes. Might try to edit some if the code to add the coloring for low rates comments.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
If a comment is that bad you probably want it to hide anyway.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
On the fist bump/fuck you—I actually think the idea of a dislike (basically for just handling trolls) is a poor use of a button. A fuck you shouldn’t be “I dislike this post”—it should be a less personal and more hilarious “Fuck you…”. So when Rice Cube asks to be smited, I can say “Fuck you, don’t tell me what to do”. And everybody wins.
So maybe instead of “Like or Dislike”, how about “Bump or Bird”, “Fist or Finger”, or something less clever and dirty. (“Fist bump or Fuck you” seems too on the nose.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
This makes it harder to read every word. I do not approve.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Did you create a new account just so you could smite yourself? That’s dedication (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I didn’t, I just didn’t log in all the way haha
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hey it’s turning pink!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
There are some jokes that could be made here
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Nice, but I think that’s the color for hotly contested. I’ll see what I can do with this.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Fist bump looks great but the disembodied middle finger emoji looks kinda like a thumbs up (or a pile of poop with thumb on top).
It needs a longer finger.
I can’t believe I’m actually posting this feedback.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The fuck you also sort of looks like a tiny silhouette of Chief Wahoo.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
And means about the same thing (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying (fucking) laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Hey now…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
A pile of poo might me nice if the fuck you is too, uh, fuck you.
(Note, at the rate that this word is changing, I wouldn’t be surprised if a polite but familiar greeting had some variation on “fuck you”. I mean, if ”God be with ye” could become “bye”, I see no reason “Good fucks to you” could become “fux” or “fukya”.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
The fucking Irish in Ireland swear like breathing and use fuck in many different ways. “Fair fucks (to you)” already exists and means “fair play” which means “nice” or “well done”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Language is strange. You missed the best example, how “Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer” became “thanks”.
berseliusQuote Reply
In other news—both PECOTA and FG have the Cubs at 86–65 the rest of the way. That’s 96 wins—even from PECOTA. And the Cubs have still been unlucky by their 2nd and 3rd order Pythag.
Interestingly, both sites are projecting exactly plus 107 for RS-RA the rest of the way. I will take the over.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Fair fucks! I’ve gotta move to Ireland.
ceruleanQuote Reply
holy shit, the twins are averaging 1.63 runs/game. that is absolutely brutal.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Seeing the performance of Buxton helps me appreciate just how lucky the Cubs have been with their prospects. He seems completely lost—almost as bad as Alcantara looked in his 30-odd PAs last year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
My back of the napkin calculation last night (actually, Calcbot on my iPhone) came up with 96-97 wins too.
dmick89Quote Reply
Between the Twins and the Braves, the race for the top draft pick looks to be very competitive.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/720638101056593920
Update: it happened in 1988, as well (Orioles and Braves).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
By Grabthar’s Hammer, the O’s started 0-21 that year.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Wow. I thought 0-14 was a bad start for the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Heyward
Zobrist
Rizzo
Bryant (LF)
La Stella (3b)
Montero
Russell
Hammel
berseliusQuote Reply
Ross not catching Hammel today
berseliusQuote Reply
CSN’s audio is out of sync for me. This could get annoying.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jaime Garcia had a 97 game score for the Cards against the Brewers—he faced 29 batters: 1H, 1BB, 13K, 9 IP. Devil magic.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Strangely efficient first for Hammel. BB, pop out, pickoff, single, fly out—14 pitches—and Billy Hamilton (the BB) took 8 of them.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I didn’t think walking Hamilton to lead off the game was going to end well. Thanks for getting picked off.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dexter Fowler is [every clichéd baseball saying when a player is doing well].
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ball 5
dmick89Quote Reply
This umpire hates Zobrist
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lots of ugly baserunning so far.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Being forced to swing at Ball 6 and Ball 7 really pisses me off.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant!
dmick89Quote Reply
If the at-bats were exactly the same, save for ball 4 being called, there would have been two men on.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It’s amazing the Cubs lead the league in runs when you consider how almost half their lineup has underperformed. Soler has been terrible. Russell isn’t hitting too well and neither is Heyward or Bryant (starting to heat up). Imagine this lineup when Bryant and Heyward start hitting and if Baez can even be league average.
dmick89Quote Reply
Stop walking people, Jason.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Fist bump or terrorist fist jab?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_vmQrTi3aM
meQuote Reply
dmick89,
I think that’s the secret. You have so many guys who can the others when streaks happen. I don’t think it’s any secret why the Cubs were so good in the second half last year—they had that depth.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Seriously.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Had to have been a missed hit and run
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’d want Bryant to get a better jump than that, even on a hit and run.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Stop falling behind Hamilton.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Addison Russell is tooooooo gooooood.
MylesQuote Reply
Phillips isn’t looking like a gold glover today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Well, they almost chased Iglesias. It’s nice to score some runs before hitting Cincy’s lockdown bullpen. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
I really wish Bruce connected on that bunt attempt.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice play by Fowler. Thought that was an easy double.
dmick89Quote Reply
I say it every day, but I love this offense.
dmick89Quote Reply
I love it when the Cubs do the Conga around the bases.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Walking Szczur on four straight with the bases loaded. This is not your day Cotham.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Fowler is having fun this year.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jumbo Diaz in to stop the bleeding.
I guess I can go to bed now. They’ll still be batting in the morning.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Bruce
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
That was half a nice play.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Gameday had that totally wrong.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
the Cubs broke the Reds AND Gameday
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Time, Death, and the Chicago Cubs.
In a word: relentless.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The combined records of Cubs opponents excluding Cubs games: 12–6
Angels: 5–2
DBags: 2–3
Reds: 5–1
ceruleanQuote Reply
In non-related news, I gleefully chortle at the hubris and stupidity behind the Arizona Diamondbacks’ foolish attempt to turn themselves into contenders overnight. Not quite as gleefully as I chortled at last year’s San Diego Padres and the long-term mess they made of themselves, but close.
I will savor every single one of their 90 losses.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-8-reds-dumpster-fire-41416/
berseliusQuote Reply