Series Preview: Colorado Rockies (5-4) vs Chicago Cubs (8-1)

The Cubs mowed down one team that's effectively punting 2016, just in time for another such team to head to Wrigley. The Rockies got off to a decent start, taking two of three from both Arizona and the Giants, and losing two of three while giving up 32 runs in three games to a team that began its season with an epically long scoreless streak. 

The big reason for this is Trevor Story, a shortstop who was only pressed into mlb service due to Jose Reyes's ongoing domestic violence suspension. Story came out of no where to homer in his first four games. And not just four homers – two of those game were multi-homer games. Story has failed to homer in two straight games now though so BUST. 

Team Leaders

Rockies

• OBP: LeMahieu (.516)
• ISO: Story (.714)
• HR: Story (7)
• R+RBI: Story (23)
• wRC+: Story (234)
• BSR: Parra (0.2)
• DRS: Arenado (3)
• SP K/9: de la Rosa (11.42)
• SP BB/9: Chatwood (0.73)
• SP ERA: Bettis (4.38)
• SP FIP: Bettis (4.63)
• RP K/9: Logan (13.5)
• RP BB/9: Gurko (0.00)
• RP ERA: Castro (1.80)
• RP FIP: Rusin (1.81)
• WAR: Storey (0.8)

Cubs

• OBP: Fowler (.559)
• ISO: Szczur (.444)
• HR: Rizzo (2)
• R+RBI: Rizzo (17)
• wRC+: Szczur (256)
• BSR: Fowler (0.2)
• DRS: Russell (3)
• SP K/9: Hammel (9.00)
• SP BB/9: Arrieta (0.64)
• SP ERA: Hammel (1.50)
• SP FIP: Hendricks (2.12)
• RP K/9: Rondon (21.00)
• RP BB/9: Strop (0.00)
• RP ERA: Rondon (0.00)
• RP FIP: Rondon (-1.49)
• WAR: Fowler (0.7)

*Note: I stat-gathered up before Thu's game stats posted

Pitching Matchups

Current ERA, Current FIP, projected ERA listed for all pitchers

Friday: Chad Bettis, RHP (4.38, 4.63, 4.66) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (2.70, 2.12, 3.65), 1:20 PM CT

Bettis made 20 starts for the Rockies last year, and was pretty good*, posting a 1.8 fWAR. He throws a wide variety of pitches and gets a decent amount of ground balls, generally hovering around 92 with his fastball. He struck out six Padres with zero walks and two runs over seven innings in his last outing.

* relative to Rockies pitcher expecations

Saturday: Christian Bergmann, RHP (12.00, 2.84, 5.43) vs Jay Carrieta, RHP (1.93, 3.53, 2.67), 1:20 PM CT

This is Bergmann's first start of the year – the Rockies schedule was such that they could skip their fifth starter up until now. And with a projection like that for Bergmann, I'm sure they are very happy about this scheduling quirk. He made fourteen forgettable starts over the past two years for the Rockies, and the most you could say was that at least he didn't walk many batters (career 1.86 BB/9). His numbers skew more towards fly balls and line drives, just what you want to see for a guy pitching at Coors. Of course, he won't be pitching at Coors this weekend, so I guess he's got that going for him.   

Sunday Sunday Sunday: Tyler Chatwood, RHP (4.38, 4.96, 4.71) vs Jon Lester, LHP (2.77, 3.25, 3.07), 1:20 PM CT

Chatwood is another one of the heavy ground ball guys that Colorado likes to target. He had a decent 20 starts in 2013, posting a 3.15 ERA and striking out less than six batters per nine while massacring plenty of worms. He missed most of the previous two seasons recovering from Tommy John, so there's a lot of volatility likely in his projection.