Time: 12:40 CT
TV: CSN, MLB Network
Series Preview
Gameday
LINEUPS
Cubs
Dexter Fowler, CF
Jason Heyward, RF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Jorge Soler, LF
Addison Russell, SS
Miguel Montero, C
Jason Hammel, P
Brewers
Jonathan Villar, SS
Alex Presley, LF
Scooter Gennett, 2B
Chris Carter, 1B
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
Domingo Santana, RF
Hernan Perez, 3B
Martin Maldonado, C
Junior Guerra, P
Will the Cubs win? No, but it could go either way.
538 Forecast: 57% chance of winning
Comments
Freaky. I just experienced the other person’s name and email in the robot form glitch. I refreshed it to normal before remembering to make note of Myles’s email in case I ever need a fake one to dodge spammers.
SKQuote Reply
I believe The Book talked about using a pitcher-OF defensive platoon where you have a LOOGY on the mound against LHB and the ROOGY in the OF on the non-pull side of the field. They swap when RHB is at bat. I thought it was a good idea given that pitchers shag fly balls in BP anyway, but in practice I’m not sure how good pitchers are at defense. However I have seen pitchers make plays in the OF in actual game situations…Roy Oswalt comes to mind.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
That’s basically what Lou tried to do in 2008. Almost.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Presumably he was mentally prepared that day.
(holy crap, I got RC’s name and email in the form below)
SKQuote Reply
Please remain calm and stay where you are for deletion. Erm, I mean…yeah, deletion.
mylesQuote Reply
SK,
If we can’t get this fixed within a day or two, we’ll switch to Disqus for a few days until we get it resolved. Sorry about this.
dmick89Quote Reply
I really don’t want to see the Cubs lose the series to the Brewers, so come on and score some runs.
dmick89Quote Reply
There were go. Nice start.
dmick89Quote Reply
Promising start.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
DEX
berseliusQuote Reply
I don’t have to worry about waiting for the ninth inning for the bats to warm up now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
all you had to do was ask
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
You guys, I seriously just woke up like an hour ago.
joshQuote Reply
Whoa, Soler alert!
joshQuote Reply
Attaboy Soler!
MylesQuote Reply
SK,
Please don’t tell the wife what was in my mailbox…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Apparently the last time two Cubs changed position during an inning was as far back as 14 hours ago. Pat and Ron thought it was hilarious when Bryant and Baez swapped gloves.
SKQuote Reply
One run every inning works for me.
SKQuote Reply
Montero is a terrible defensive catcher.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He’s not real good. Why did they sign him again?
joshQuote Reply
SK,
You had to say something, didn’t you?
joshQuote Reply
josh,
He was signed through this season when the Cubs traded for him. He’s alright if he’s hitting, and I expect he’ll hit fine by the end of the season, but when he’s not hitting he sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Although he was worth 2 fWAR last year, primarily for defense, so I don’t know wtf
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Defensive adjustment for catcher is pretty big. It’s the most difficult position to play.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Ah okay.
It’s bad when you’re like “David Ross should be playing more.”
Will Montero be next year’s cross when they call up Contreras?
joshQuote Reply
josh,
*Ross
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Probably not. Montero will be able to get a starting job somewhere. They’ll probably just sign a strong defensive catcher to backup Contreras.
dmick89Quote Reply
Whoever said that the Brewers have a terrible starting staff forgot to tell the Cubs.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Nationals are objectively the furriest team in baseball: http://apps.washingtonpost.com/f/beards/
joshQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Doesn’t it seem like the Cubs win percentage against the Brewers is inversely proportional to their overall record?
joshQuote Reply
Well that sucks
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Indeed!
joshQuote Reply
11 strikeouts and not even through 7
dmick89Quote Reply
Break
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Sowwy!
SKQuote Reply
Late runs, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
And you were worried we wouldn’t need a 9th inning rally!
joshQuote Reply
This has been a shitty series.
dmick89Quote Reply
IIRC Montero’s supposed to be a pretty good framer, but I’m still skeptical of framing stats because aside from Castillo it sounds like all MLB catchers are from Lake Woebegon.
berseliusQuote Reply
Ok Georgie. Fuck this guy up.
joshQuote Reply
berselius,
In that they are full of shit?
joshQuote Reply
Fuck!
MylesQuote Reply
It’s hard to believe that just 5 days ago I was thinking this team would win 110. We’re still really good, but man has it been a rough week.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
yarp
joshQuote Reply
$&@!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Everyone is above average!
berseliusQuote Reply
Last year’s team got swept by the Phillies. Shit happens *shrug*
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, I’m not sure how much I trust catcher defensive stats.
The more I see of Soler, the more I miss Schwarber. I know Theo and others in the organization are still high on Soler, but if they’re right, surely another organization is equally high on him. Find that organization and trade him if they’re that certain he deserves to be starting. He just shouldn’t be starting for this team as much as he has been. I’m not a huge Baez fan, but I’ll take him over Soler any time.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I don’t listen to enough Garrison Keiler, I guess.
joshQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, not only have they played like shit in what is just one series. They’re leaving with at least one win in a road series. Pretty good actually.
But yeah, it’s weeks like this why 110 wins is so damn difficult. Every team is going to play like shit for an extended period of time.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Surely they’d be selling low right now. I just don’t know what can be done about him.
joshQuote Reply
The selfsame catching stats say Willson Contreras is the worst framing catcher there is.
MylesQuote Reply
I’m not sure why I thought this team was immune from the laws of variance, but alas, I did.
MylesQuote Reply
If the Cubs lose today, they will have a .718 win‰—good for 116 wins. Their current .737 win‰ is good for 119 wins.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
AND LOST IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES DIRECT CORRELATION
joshQuote Reply
josh,
They would. There’s also not a lot of point in optioning him to the minors unless you just want him to play every day. FedEx is still on the roster so you’re stuck just trying to get him some playing time.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s more like what type of team they are going forward. I have the Cubs’ true talent at around 102 wins. That means they are “on pace” for 106 wins this season. For them to win 111 games, they have to have a true talent level of around 107 wins now.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
You’ll be eating your words after they sweep the cards with 98-2 runs for the series.
joshQuote Reply
Myles,
538 has them at 105 prior to today’s game and BP had them at about 100 last I checked (a few days ago). I still think 100 is closer to what I expect. If I had to pick how many games I think they win right now, I’d probably say 100. We’ve seen them at their best, but we’re going to get stretches like this (and probably worse). If they play like this against the Giants and Cardinals it could be an ugly road trip.
dmick89Quote Reply
Just realized the Cubs have already lost more games than the Warriors did in the regular season. That’s hard to believe since the Cubs have been so awesome so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ya, I miss Schwarber. Do you really need an ACL to swing a bat? Debatable.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
He might need it to jog around the bases 30+ times.
dmick89Quote Reply
Come on, Javy
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Is that a sports team?
joshQuote Reply
The Brewers are terrible I feel like even with 3 outs the Cubs might still come back.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Over the last 4 weeks, Dexter Fowler is down to .266/.385/.392/.778.
Still great production from a CF, but it would appear the hot streak has ended.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
ugh
joshQuote Reply
Wow. Thought it was gone.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, I’ll take that for a whole season please.
MylesQuote Reply
Fack, I thought that was out
berseliusQuote Reply
I’ll be honest, it looked like it would be in play (out) off the bat on Gameday.
MillertimeQuote Reply
We’re here at Miller Park, where we’ve secretly replaced the Cubs’ bats with Folgers Crystals. Let’s see if anyone notices!
uncle daveQuote Reply
i thought for sure that some other team (besides the yankees) had a no-beards policy that i read about a month or two back. marlins maybe?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Fu-uh-uh-uh-uh-uuuuuh-uck everything.
joshQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14817598/marlins-adopt-policy-no-facial-hair-mattingly
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I thought maybe it meant an abnormal amount of Nationals players were interested in fictional anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics.
MillertimeQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
That’s just dumb.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh,
oh wait your link is from 2014. ok now i get it.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Turn it green
MylesQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
That will definitely win them the world series
joshQuote Reply
Projection, not possibility. I don’t know what their true talent is, but I would assume that a projection of true talent would be right at the 50/50 chance of exceeding the projection. While this 3–5 stretch where little has gone right offensively decreases their chances of reaching such heights, if they go 28–11 nearly 3 more times, they will tie the all-time wins record. They are severely underperforming their expected wins, so I don’t think that implausible, even if it would happen less than half the time. That’s all.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think it’s plausible, which is awfully impressive. It’s kind of crazy to think about it really. 110 is plausible. 90 is plausible. Anything less than 90 seems far-fetched. 90 wins is a pretty good season and it’s almost impossible for this team to not win 90 or more. Fun season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do
berseliusQuote Reply
I was thinking I’d paint it black. That would really give me some satisfaction.
MillertimeQuote Reply
There’s no shame in getting beaten by the best.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So hey guys, is the internet on fire?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
No, but it’s probable the DC Metro is.
http://www.ismetroonfire.com
umbraQuote Reply
I’m starting to worry that the Cubs might not be the 1927 Yankees.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
While the recent games have sucked, this should put a smile on any Cubfan’s face:
The Cubs’ record including the playoffs since:
• the Maddon ear began: 129–81 (100 wins over 162)
• the start of June: 103–59 (the last 162 games)
• the All-Star break: 82–41 (108 wins over 162)
• the start of August: 74–34 (111 wins over 162)
The Cubs’ record excluding the playoffs since:
• the Maddon ear began: 125–76 (101 wins over 162)
• May 21st: 103–59 (the last 162 regular season games)
• the All-Star break: 78–36 (111 wins over 162)
• the start of August: 70–29 (114 wins over 162)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, but what have they done for me this week?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
Since the start of this week: 1-2 (54 over 162 games)
It’s all over.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
1-3, actually. They are literally the 1962 Mets.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Another complete game for Sale.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What’s the asking Price?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Let’s wait for the White Sox second half meltdown first.
joshQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-cubs-28-11-at-san-francisco-giants-24-18/
berseliusQuote Reply