Time: 1:20 PM CT
TV: WGN
Gameday
LINEUPS
Diamondbacks
Jean Segura, 2B
Brandon Drury, RF
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Jake Lamb, 3B
Welington Castillo, C
Chris Owings, CF
Yasmany Tomas, LF
Nick Ahmed, SS
Edwin Escobar, P
Cubs
Dexter Fowler, CF
Jason Heyward, RF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Jorge Soler, LF
Addison Russell, SS
David Ross, C
Jason Hammel, P
Click on the images below to visit Baseball Savant page and view larger image.
The Cubs have had only 2 plate appearances against Escobar. Ben Zobrist is 1-1 with a double and Tim Fedorowicz is 0-1.
Paul Goldschmidt has hit Hammel well, but he's hit most pitchers well with the exception of this season.
Will the Cubs win? Yes, but it could go either way.
538 Forecast: 69% chance of winning
Comments
I love how a .263/.416/.469 slash line for Goldschmidt counts as disappointing.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
.246/.385/.508 for Rizzo and people have been talking about how he’s not been hitting as well this season. People are generally idiots. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Seems nice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s funny because I hadn’t even looked at what Goldschmidt had done. I just said what I did in the post bases on something Len said yesterday. I should have looked. He’s not hit as well as in the past, but he’s still hit really well.
dmick89Quote Reply
I can’t believe they’re starting this game.
dmick89Quote Reply
Scary play at first there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Votto has legitimately sucked, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Shields to be traded in the next 24 hours. Hopefully we don’t see anyone hugging a bag of balls in the cubs dugout.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Everything is worse this year for Votto.
dmick89Quote Reply
Stupid walks.
dmick89Quote Reply
We just got the three true outcomes in order.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Dammit, Goldy (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I should say, “in a row.”
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
Wonder if the Cardinals are in on the trade talks.
dmick89Quote Reply
2 runs should not be enough to win this game.
dmick89Quote Reply
Especially against this Dbacks starter
*watches CG shutout*
berseliusQuote Reply
I just hope no one gets hurt in this shitty weather.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dex!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Dexter! 2-1
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing), case in point
berseliusQuote Reply
Puig to the DL. I wonder if the Cubs might be able to pry him away with the likes of Baez or Soler. He has not shown the promise of his early seasons, but I feel like he could really succeed at Wrigley. Imagine the outfield defense with him in left.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Yankees have also placed Teixeira on the DL. Vogelbach to the Yankees. Make it happen.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’m up for that. I was thinking the same thing when he was at Wrigley earlier this week.
dmick89Quote Reply
It would be great exercise for the Chicago media to haul out the rail they use to run players out of town, record setting win total or not (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That’s true. The Chicago media has been somewhat tolerable. Puig would change that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Quick inning for the Cubs. Don’t know that I like all that first pitch swinging.
dmick89Quote Reply
I had tickets to this game before my travel plans changed. I found selling them on Stubhub to be very convenient, but it would appear the whole operation is so slick and mainstream now that the market for second-hand tickets is too competitive for sellers to profit (or even break even, it would seem) at all. Ten days ago, there were 3,000 tickets available. As the week progressed, that number actually went up, not down, even as tickets were sold each day more were put on sale. So I had to discount by 25% in order to sell them by yesterday.
I wish I had known this before I bought tickets on Stubhub for the 17th. I could have waited until a day before and had my pick of value-priced seats.
SKQuote Reply
With Puig in the outfield, the Cubs would have a legitimate shot at 5 WAR at every position save the battery.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Quick fix: call up Contreras. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
So you sold them for less than you paid? That sucks and it’s kind of surprising.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yep, and I bought them from the Cubs the day they went on sale. I was surprised too.
SKQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
But seriously, that would be incredible in every meaning of the word.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Only 39 pitches for Escobar through 3.
dmick89Quote Reply
That really sucks. Wonder why tickets aren’t going for more. Is that common?
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
We’ve got this this spreadsheet of resale values on bleacher season tickets and the majority of tickets are going for less than face, but a sizable minority are going for much more than face bringing the mean up above break even.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Also, a strange thing happened for last year’s playoffs—the presold tickets went for significantly more than those kept as the date grew closer. It was very surprising.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s probably people booking well advance who are traveling and want to make sure they have tickets paying above face. Like I did for my new itinerary?
Do you have season tickets in the bleachers?
SKQuote Reply
I don’t know. I remember in 2007-08 tickets definitely went up on the resale/broker/scalper market. I think the difference today is the ease of use for season tickets holders and buyers, and a much greater acceptance of digital tickets. Back when people were paranoid about e-tickets, the whole physical aspect of buying second-hand made it much harder and therefore more expensive, I guess.
SKQuote Reply
Time to walk Escobar out of the ballgame. C’mon now.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Looks like the Cubs plan is to hit so many popups they eventually land and score runs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Much better PA by Zobrist this time.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ditto Soler
dmick89Quote Reply
Soler!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Damn vines prevented yet another run from scoring.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SK,
My dad does. He got them in 2013 and with the exception of late last year and this year, it’s been pretty rough. This year, we were able to scrape together enough for full season tickets, not the nights and weekends package, which also contributes to the oversupply on some dates and not others. The weekday games seem to go for better than expected.
Damn ivy. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
No matter. Addison Clutchell is up
SKQuote Reply
SK,
STFU
SKQuote Reply
C’mon Hammel make ’em pay.
SKQuote Reply
Hammel!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel with 7 RBI. Crazy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hammel has been good with the bat this year. His career numbers aren’t good, but I wonder if he’s improving that aspect of his game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel actually went “Woo!” after that. (dying laughing)
SKQuote Reply
Didn’t Hammel single up the middle earlier in the season and drive in a run when the ball hit 2nd base?
dmick89Quote Reply
Another factor is that the tickets are sold for a higher initial value, closer to the actual demand. And the weather can really deflate resale values as it becomes more clear. Today is a dreary day. More people decide not to go. And digital transactions make the market much more liquid.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Lackey, Hendricks and Lester still suck at hitting, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I guess things go well when they go well. (dying laughing)
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
*suck
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
That’s a really good point.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
Does your dad sit on Al’s bench?
SKQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
*sick* can go either way.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Sounds like we need to make a poll about getting cerulean a haircut
berseliusQuote Reply
Hell if I know. He prefers to get there early in left field to get batting practice homeruns.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hammel’s really settled down since the first
berseliusQuote Reply
There is a joke here I’m missing, but considering that my hair is approaching the middle of my back, I clearly don’t give a fuck about haircuts anymore. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Al (or one of his associates) gets there early and is let in before the masses get let in, then assumes control of the last bench in the far LF corner. Your dad should make a point of doing the same and “calling” it before Al does.
SKQuote Reply
Much like the last Lester start.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Terrible pitch for Heyward to swing at on 3-0.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
I think he has mentioned that he can never get seats over there. He sticks to the aisle near the well. Season tickets are let in early, though when I went opening day, it was a clusterfuck with the new metal detectors.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Those metal detectors are a real bitch for those gun wielding psychopaths trying to watch an afternoon ballgame.
dmick89Quote Reply
If the Cubs win this one, will the 538 forecast go up to 108 wins? Can’t wait until it gets to 110.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo audibly yells FUN! after he hits the pop-up that started the rally. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Actually, it was a total lack of preparation on the Cubs’ part. The ticket checkers literally had zero practice. They told us so.
The gun-wielding psychopaths were fine.
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://www.willthe538forecastgoupto108wins.com
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
If they score several more runs this game, that’s a possibility.
ceruleanQuote Reply
SK,
Yeah people list them early with sky high prices hoping that the suckers bite (no offense). It’s the same as priceline in that you can usually wait til the absolute last second and get a total steal if you don’t mind the non-zero probability that you end up with nothing.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
It’s worth keeping in mind that it is not a forecast, but an average W–L record of the 50,000 simulated seasons. That means there are some seasons with less than 90 wins and some with more than 120. (I wish they showed the high and low wins.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
None taken (dying laughing)
Although I was surprised at how small the markup was on the ones I bought in that fashion (def not sky high).
I’m surprised there are nearly 4,000 tickets available a couple days before each game though (during this kind of epic season, I mean).
SKQuote Reply
cerulean,
I am digging the recent addition of the greater than sign with their 99% playoff probability.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Right, I’ve tried to avoid “projection” in any of the posts I’ve used it in, but I’m sure I’ve screwed it up sometimes.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
Yet another factor on ticket prices is that there are more seats than ever.
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I was thrilled to get tix to the nlds through the lotto until I realized that I could have got them the night before via stubhub for the same price (or less). I was pretty shocked.
Along the same lines, I bought hawks tix for the stanley cup a few years back for face value and then couldn’t make the game. I figured, what the hell, I’ll just sell them on stubhub and make like $300. I ended up selling a pair of $350 tickets for like $225. Couldn’t believe I lost $250 selling the hottest tickets in town.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Lesson being, the Cubs (and Hawks) have really nailed their pricing — at least for winning seasons.
SKQuote Reply
Shields -» white sox
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Bad Strop
dmick89Quote Reply
he’s just doing Rondon a solid, trying to make sure he can get a save (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Strop gets a hold. I hate holds.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cahill vs. Goldy? I’m not liking the odds of this one.
dmick89Quote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Jesus.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I’d take Rondon vs. Goldy. Not sure why Joe didn’t just go for the 4 out save there.
dmick89Quote Reply
Just bring in Rondon.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Exactly.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Not sure he wants to stretch him out if he’s not 100%
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That might be, but has Joe ever used him for a save longer than 1 inning?
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s not necessarily a criticism of Joe since there are few or no managers that take advantage of the 1+ inning save.
dmick89Quote Reply
Does anyone do four-out saves anymore?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat, Unfortunately not. We get 8 man bullpens instead.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The Blue Jays did it last night
berseliusQuote Reply
Don’t walk him, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow.
dmick89Quote Reply
Whew.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*phew*
ceruleanQuote Reply
Let’s see if the Cubs hitters are up for a game of Screw the Closer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
pew pew
berseliusQuote Reply
Did Rickie Weeks only recently discover his father’s first name?
(I don’t remember the “Jr.” being a thing before now)
SKQuote Reply
Good job by Travis inducing that hard-hit line drive.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
SK,
I think they mentioned that he was always a Jr, he just wasn’t using it as part of his name.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It wasn’t. More players seem to be using Jr. now than they did a few years ago. I remember it used to be pretty common when I was a kid, but then stopped. Now it’s back. I remember a few minor league games I attended when I was about 10 or 12 and there were 4 or 5 guys who had Jr. in their name (kids of former MLB players).
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t listen to every word.
SKQuote Reply
It’s a skill he’s been working hard at.
dmick89Quote Reply
For a minute though I was wondering if Weeks was old enough to have a son playing (dying laughing)
SKQuote Reply
And you get the occasional Sr. too
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
RIZZO!!!!!!!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Apparently rondon just sat down in the bulllpen? Hopefully I received some bad info.
Aaaaaand RIZZO!!!!
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Rizzobomb!
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo is working on it. He needs help.
dmick89Quote Reply
Probably because he’s ready for the bottom half of the inning.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK, didn’t you say the whiny Pirates said the Cubs weren’t the best team in baseball during their last series? With some luck they could fall more than 10 games behind the team that isn’t the best team in baseball.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yep. Even Ahmed helping out. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It’s only partially luck. Some of it bad for the Cubs. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
It was gerrit Cole that said that.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yep, it was Cole I think
SKQuote Reply
*TLR directs his pitchers to throw at their defenders heads*
berseliusQuote Reply
You know, if Rondon came in in the eight for the last out and then they broke it open, he could get a save.
It’s a big damn conspiracy!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Tough day for Addy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Russell has looked pretty horrible lately. Worst ive seen him look in a long time.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Dmick:
Sometimes when I refresh, recent comments disappear. I wonder if there is a caching issue wedging itself with the login issue.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Dmick:
Sometimes when I refresh, recent comments disappear. I wonder if there is a caching issue wedging itself with the login issue.
—
The comments aren’t loading or submitting properly now.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What a weird game, but we’ll take it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Same
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Comments are working fine now. This blackbox pipes and tubes sure is confusing.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Berselius out fuckfaces!
berseliusQuote Reply
Blackbox *of*…
ceruleanQuote Reply
Not gonna bitch but kinda seems like cubs shoulda lost that one
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Heyward and Hammel have the same OPS.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
I think it’s a cache issue, but the host insists it is not. I’d assume they know since it’s the same cache they use on all their other servers and the problem seems to be unique. They are working on it, which I know after this amount of time sounds crazy. Might have to use Disqus for awhile. I don’t want to, but I thought this would be resolved by now.
dmick89Quote Reply
I can actually recreate the login issue every time if I want, which leads me to believe it's related the site cache. We have no control over the cache settings.
dmick89Quote Reply
I didn’t like Rondon’s getting all his outs on balls on the air, but at least his control was sharp.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Here I am nitpicking a 1-2-3 inning. Rondon has spoiled me so.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
3-3 in the Angels/Pirates game
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It’s usually not this bad for me. So whatever. I do like the fact that it’s an old-school database run by a discredited blog rather than an online identity with a dubious monetization scheme.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The 2015 Cubs swept a doubleheader in Philadelphia last year on September 11th. The second win put them 24 games over .500 for the first time all season. The 2016 Cubs achieved that on June 4th.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
It doesn’t bother me because I know that the comment is there and will reappear eventually. I also know that I can go ahead and post a comment even if the comment form is showing me as not logged in. The only thing that bothers me is that it makes some email addresses public from time to time.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Pirates took an 8-3 lead in the 7th and now the Angels have come almost all the way back. 8-7.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-5-diamondbacks-3-6-4-16/
dmick89Quote Reply