Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (39-16) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-29)

In Series Previews by dmick89109 Comments

The Phillies got off to a really hot start this season and then went to Chicago. Since then they've been pretty bad. 

Team Leaders

Cubs

Arrieta's last start put him at the top of the FIP leaderboard for the Cubs starters and Hector Rondon has far and away been the best reliever on the Cubs (maybe in all of baseball). 

Phillies

The Phillies have a couple of relievers who strike a lot of batters out. 

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, Projected ERA listed for each pitcher

Monday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.79, 2.17, 2.29, 3.22, 3.09) vs Adam Morgan, LHP (6.06, 2.52, 7.07, 5.34, 5.21), 6:05 PM CT

Morgan has a subpar strikeout rate and it's even better than it was in his rookie season in 2015. His walk rate is good, though not as good as last season. He's given up 7 home runs in 35.2 innings this year and 21 total in his career in 120 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher too. The Cubs could have a lot of fun tonight. He started against the Cubs on May 27th and lasted only 4 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 6 runs. He surrendered 3 home runs. Jorge Soler, David Ross and Kris Bryant went deep. 

Lester has been really good this year. He started against the Phillies in that same game Morgan did and went 6.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 7. 

Tuesday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.25, 1.85, 2.84, 2.93, 3.51) vs Jared Eickhoff, RHP (7.33, 1.76, 3.93, 3.94, 4.25), 6:05 PM CT

Eickhoff's strikeout and walk numbers are similar to Hendricks, but Hendricks hasn't given up many home runs this season. Eickhoff's HR/FB ratio is 13.4%. Hendricks keeps the ball on the ground a lot. 57.6% of his balls in play this year are groundballs. Eickhoff's is 44.3%. Eickhoff was much better last year at keeping the ball in the park, but his strikeout numbers are down a bit and his walks are up just a bit. Eickhoff last 6 innings against the Cubs on May 28th and gave up 8 hits and 4 runs. He walked 1 and struckout 7. Hendricks pitched a complete game with 0 walks and 7 strikeouts. It should have been a shutout, but some outfield miscommunication screwed that up. 

Wednesday: Jason Hammel, RHP (8.00, 3.43, 2.14, 3.41, 3.80) vs Vince Velasquez, RHP (10.71, 3.23, 3.67, 3.56, 3.69), 12:05 PM CT

Velasquez gets a lot of strikeouts and has above average command. He induces a lot of infield flies and is mostly a fly ball pitcher. He's prone to give up the long ball, but at his home park, that's not too surprising. He did not do too well in his start against the Cubs on May 29th. He lasted only 4.2 innings and gave up 9 hits and 7 runs. Miguel Montero and Ben Zobrist hit home runs that day. 

Prediction: The Cubs take the first two, but lose the final game of the series. 

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Comments

  36. cerulean

    I heard the long single and thought I had time to watch the Bryant replay. Apparently I actually missed something.

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  37. Author
    dmick89

    I’d much rather Bryant play 3rd simply because he’s the long term 3rd baseman. Javy in LF, but they’ll probably do the opposite. Too bad Almora would walk in half a percent of his PA. He’d be a good call up if he had any patience.

    The Cubs are on pace to have about 5 or 6 injured left fielders this season.

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  52. Rizzo the Rat

    It figures that just as Soler is starting to play better he would go down with a hamstring injury.

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  53. cerulean

    dmick89,

    It’s not like he can’t run. He’s a pretty rangy dude at first. I think it was probably Dempster at the convention with a depth chart of every position and he razzed Rizzo for being the only one who played only one position. He got roasted pretty good for that.

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  57. Author
    dmick89

    cerulean,

    Guess it depends on how you think he is at 1st then. I think he’s better than average, but not much. He’d be one of the worst left fielders defensively. Has he ever played it? Is this just to get Vogelbach up here who is probably a horrible defensive 1st baseman? I’d rather they go with Matt Szczur. It would have to be better than Rizzo in LF and Vogebach at 1st.

    I’m guessing they try to get lucky with Crawford until the deadline.

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  72. Rizzo the Rat

    I think it’s kind of silly that the sixth run is what prompted Maddon top call the bullpen. The change in win expectancy is tiny.

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  85. Rizzo the Rat

    In all honesty, I think it makes more sense to remove the starter who’s signed to a long-term deal in situations like this. Complete games are more fun, though.

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  86. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat:
    I think it’s kind of silly that the sixth run is what prompted Maddon top call the bullpen. The change in win expectancy is tiny.

    For the record, I think he should make that decision after an even tinier change to WE. Like, maybe after the sixteenth run scores.

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  89. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I agree, but he was less than 100 pitches. It’s negligible. And he was throwing free and easy. Next time, let him do it. He’s not going to wear down for that.

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  90. Rizzo the Rat

    dmick89,

    It was 95, which isn’t too high. Still, there’ s little reason to use him in the ninth with a well-rested bullpen other than “complete games are neat.”

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  91. Rizzo the Rat

    I mean, I was rooting for a CG shutout myself, but I see the logic in not using such a valuable asset in a low-leverage situation.

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  95. Rice Cube

    Lester had pitched a complete game in his last start, I believe. Back to back CGs might be a bit much these days, but I’m not a macho man.

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  100. Rizzo the Rat

    cerulean,

    Oh, his hitting numbers are still bad overall, but they’re no longer the worst on the Cubs staff. In fact, he’s pulled just ahead of Lackey for third place among the starting staff.

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  101. Rizzo the Rat

    I honestly think Lester is a better hitter than Hendricks at this point. Kyle has only one career extra base hit.

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  102. Author
    dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Hendricks has usually looked more comfortable at the plate to me except lately. Lester has looked a lot more comfortable. He sits fastball and if it’s anything else he just takes it. Last year he was backing out of the box and it was just ugly.

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  104. Author
    dmick89

    The 24-year-old catcher may be playing his best baseball after extending his hitting streak to 14 games with a first inning single Monday. But fans held their breath when Contreras was looked at by a trainer in the top of the eighth inning before coming out of the game.

    “It’s an instep,” Iowa manager Marty Pevey said. “It’s like the arch (in the foot). He said he had the same thing last year at the All-Star Game and it was better the next day. So hopefully it’s nothing serious.”

    Pevey said the Cubs would wait and see.

    “Hopefully it’s nothing serious,” he said. “Hopefully it’s just a cramp. We’re not sure. He’ll go see a doctor in the morning.”

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