Time: 12:05 PM CT
TV: CSN, MLB Network
Gameday
LINEUPS
Cubs
Dexter Fowler, CF
Jason Heyward, RF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Albert Almora, LF
Miguel Montero, C
Javier Baez, SS
John Lackey, P
Phillies
Odubel Herrera, CF
Cesar Hernandez, 2B
Freddy Galvis, SS
Maikel Franco, 3B
Ryan Howard, 1B
Cameron Rupp, C
Cody Asche, LF
Tyler Goeddel, RF
Vince Velasquez, P
Will the Cubs win? No.
538 Forecast: 66% chance of winning
Comments
The host tried another potential fix on the login issue. Please let me know how it goes.
dmick89Quote Reply
Will I be logged in after posting?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Worked this time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
And didn’t work this time.
When the logout occurs, I typically no longer see the comment I just posted. Right now, I don’t see anything but the first comment.
ceruleanQuote Reply
And it’s back to normal.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Thanks. i had the problem occur too. I let them know.
dmick89Quote Reply
Len said they’re starting about 15 minutes late
dmick89Quote Reply
Uh oh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow. That doesn’t look good for Velasquez.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I thought it was weird that his first pitch was only 86 mph.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Did Heyward ground out? I’m asking seriously. I was away for a few minutes, but I assume he grounded out.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He bounced out top the pitcher.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
*to
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Well this sucks
dmick89Quote Reply
Almora!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Almora!!!!!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, this is frustrating.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
The only moderated comments I get are from you. I wonder why that is. Every single time I get an email with the heading having to do with a comment pending, I know it’s you. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
What happened to Velasquez/Almora?
mylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
I am the only one who quotes multiple comments?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I think that’s it. My first thought was you had a fishy IP address, but that’s not the case. Has to be the multiple quotes. Let me see if I can fix that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Velasquez threw a couple pitches and both were around 86 mph. Apparently they were fastballs and he was taken out immediately. Almora gunned down Herrera at home. It wasn’t a difficult play. The Phillies were just testing Almora since they didn’t know what he could do, but he can apparently gun runners down with ease. Herrera didn’t even bother sliding.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The play is in the at-bat feed. It wasn’t even close. The runner just sheepishly walked into Montero’s tag.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Also, I think multiple links sometimes trip it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Miggy is slow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
testing
dmick891Quote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lots of missed scoring opportunities this series.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That really sucked.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, it’s going to suck to lose 2 of 3 to this team if they end up losing it. This is a team they should beat up on.
dmick89Quote Reply
DMick—I just got your login info. Expect an increase in spam shortly.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Especially on an unplanned bullpen day.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’m hoping the hot chicks around here get in touch with me.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-years-cubs-might-be-better-than-the-incredible-27-yankees/
Any game we win by less than 2.6 runs will now disappoint me.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
I’m pretty sure Kris Bryant is better than Joe Dugan.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I found a plugin that should resolve any registered users having comments sent to moderation, but I’d like to find the natural solution within WordPress instead. There’s got to be a way so give me a few days to look into it. If I can’t find anything, I’ll install that plugin.
dmick89Quote Reply
umbra,
You should probably not watch this game.
dmick89Quote Reply
This series sucks
dmick89Quote Reply
I like that the Cubs got to the starter so quickly.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
I hate it when they forget to bring their bats.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
First comment I made it logged me out until I reloaded.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
First game was okay until that last inning.
joshQuote Reply
josh,
And the Soler injury.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hit and run would be nice.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Maybe Almora will compensate?
joshQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I don’t get too worked up about them unless they are Schwarber level. He’ll be back eventually, and it didn’t feel to me like he was a key offensive member of the team. Obviously his offense is better than anything else he does, but the team still feels stacked.
joshQuote Reply
Baez needs to stop swinging at everything.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
josh,
I think it’s the depth that takes a big hit. With Russell and Montero struggling at the plate, the Cubs 6-9 hitters kind of suck right now.
dmick89Quote Reply
This has been said about him every plate appearance since 2011.
dmick89Quote Reply
Baez!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Swinging at everything pays off that time.
dmick89Quote Reply
What’s the deal with the Cubs fielders this year? Is there no communication or something? Those near collisions seem to happen daily.
dmick89Quote Reply
More runs, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Seems like Almora gives more depth, b/c he can play all outfield positions. Seems like he was hitting okay in Iowa. Less power obvs.
joshQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Thank you.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Kris Bryant!
dmick89Quote Reply
I like this game better now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
josh,
Soler is probably the better overall player at this point and what I mean by depth is organizational depth. If the Cubs have another injury in the outfield, which with 4 months left in the season is likely, their outfield went from a strength in the beginning of the season to pure shit. Losing 2 outfielders like the Cubs have is about like losing Lester and Hendricks in the rotation. It would suck and losing Schwarber and Soler sucks. Almora will be a fine defensive player, but he’ll probably be a terrible hitter.
dmick89Quote Reply
Zobrist!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yeah, the Cubs bats finally decided to wake up. About time.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It’s weird how they were handcuffed for several innings by that soft-tossing southpaw reliever, but that’s baseball.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lackey dealing
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
Well, but they’ll get Soler back, at least.
joshQuote Reply
the thing that bothers me the most is that he seemed to finally be finding his groove at the plate and i’m concerned that this injury de-rails the progress that he seemed to be making.
not sure if there’s any logic to that.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Baez. So hot right now. Baez.
umbraQuote Reply
(dying laughing) we were complaining about Baez and he’s 3-3.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe I shouldn’t tell him what to do.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
The pitch he hit a double on was eye-high.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Why bunt with the runner on 2nd?
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Baez likes to swing. We’ll get these 3-3 days and then we’ll get long stretches where he looks horrible. I’m surprised we haven’t seen some kind of improvement on the types of pitches he swings at, but I haven’t noticed a lot.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Because there are no outs and it’s fairly easy to get a run in from third with one out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Looks like Baez is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than ever and he’s swinging at more pitches in general. He has fewer swinging strikes, which is good. Too bad he can’t swing less often. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12979&position=2B/3B/SS#platediscipline
dmick89Quote Reply
If I remember MGL’s research correctly, a runner on second with no outs is the best time for a pitcher to sacrifice.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I’d much rather he be swinging. My guess is that the only reason he was laying down a bunt was to keep him off base just in case. Joe usually doesn’t bunt in those situations.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I can’t remember, but even if it is the best time for the pitcher to lay down a sac bunt, does that mean it’s the optimal strategy? I’m guessing swinging away is still the best strategy.
dmick89Quote Reply
That additional run doesn’t mean a whole lot to the Cubs win expectancy.
dmick89Quote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
That probably is more of a concern.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
I just checked THE BOOK. He found that a below-average pitcher should sacrifice most off the time and an average-hitting pitcher should sacrifice half the time. I’m fine with the bunt there unless there’s some research retiring that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
*refuting. I hate mobile typing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Sure, it’s a concern. I’m not sure whether he was really finding his groove or just on a hot streak. If he comes back slow people will say that the injury was the reason (like they did with Corey Patterson after his injury).
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryan Howard is terrible again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
There probably isn’t and I don’t hate the sac bunt there like I’ve hated some of Joe’s pinch hitting decisions (or lack thereof). It’s just not what I would have done. Joe hasn’t done that a lot either. He’s usually let the pitchers hit.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is what will irritate me the most about his injury in the next several months. If Soler does come back and he struggles at the plate, everyone will try to blame it on the injury and point to two weeks prior to it in which he was hitting well. Maybe those two weeks were the start of something. I hope so, but I’m far from sold. It takes more than two weeks to convince me after more than a year of being average or worse at the plate.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Guessing there hasn’t been a lot of opportunity for it so maybe it’s just some in-game bunt practice for when they do need to bunt.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
WILL THE CUBS EVER SCORE AGAIN!?
joshQuote Reply
Lowers run expectancy, but increases the chances of one run. IIRC, sac bunts are optimal strat if:
1. It’s the 7th inning or later
2. You’re tied or down by 1.
3. You are the home team.
4. The player doing the sacrifice really sucks at batting.
Points 1 and 4 apply. This is probably a push.
umbraQuote Reply
#ScrewTheCloser
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Excellent point. I’m sold now. Good decision. Hard to believe that the Cubs pitchers haven’t really had many opportunities to lay down bunts in key spots. 2016 has been fun.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s about the run differential now. The real question to ask is: will the Cubs ever be scored upon again!?!
umbraQuote Reply
Way to go, Almora!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Coom, please don’t call him Al.
SKQuote Reply
What are the hold rules? Maybe they should demote Rondon so he could be the MLB holds leader since they don’t need a closer.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
You come in in a save situation and leave without blowing the lead.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Big day for Baez.
dmick89Quote Reply
Holds are one of my last favorite stats don’t get me started on holds.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
now you fuckers finally have something to be pissed at baez about.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Oh, it has to be a save situation? That wouldn’t work then.
dmick89Quote Reply
6 runs wasn’t enough to take Lackey out, but 8 is. Joe is weird.
dmick89Quote Reply
Coomer can’t stop raving about the bottom of the order (dying laughing)
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, that stat is supposed to like like saves, but for setup men. The big downside of the stat is that you can create a huge mess but still get a hold of you leave the game with a lead. It’s dumb.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Oh, and I think you have to get at least one out to qualify for a hold.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Strop!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Javier Baez Game
Sitrick is doing his best Jed Hoyer impression at the moment
mylesQuote Reply
Last night I cast a second-level ‘Hold Person’ spell and paralyzed two berserkers, so it worked out pretty great for me.
umbraQuote Reply
I MEAN AGAIN AFTER THAT
joshQuote Reply
Clayton Richard walks the first batter on four pitches.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
WILL THE TEAM EVER SCORE AN OUT AGAIN!?
joshQuote Reply
This year v. the last forever years. Yesterday was an anomaly instead of the average game.
joshQuote Reply
8-run lead not coughed up by Clayton Richard
umbraQuote Reply
SK,
Of course I’d say what I did on the day Baez goes 4-4.
dmick89Quote Reply
Doesn’t come close to matching the Sandberg game or last year’s Schwarber game. Still a good game for Baez who needed one at the plate. Would be nice to get Russell going again.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is the kind of game I was expecting from a Cubs-Phillies matchup.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lackey continues to dominate. His K-BB% is over 20% now. He’s one of nine qualified starters to have a K-BB% that high: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d
Lackey’s is only 19.9% in that list, but it doesn’t include today’s game.
The Cubs have 2 in the top 10 and that doesn’t even include Arrieta. Lackey and Zobrist have easily been the two best offseason signings this past winter.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s the kind of game we should see this weekend, but the Braves beat the Cubs once at Wrigley. I’d never expect a sweep on the road, but if there was ever a series that should be a sweep on the road, this one coming up is it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m looking forward to watching Jameson Taillon tonight. Kind of funny that Len and JD spent so much time talking today about how Almora was not behind schedule and Taillon is making his debut tonight. He was drafted 2nd overall in 2010.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t forget Fowler.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Pretty sure Fowler didn’t sign for what is effectively a measly $13M one-year deal. That would have been a ridiculous coup for Thoyer.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Not making a game recap because I’m currently en route to Midway airport for my grandpa’s honor flight. Suffice to say, we dominated them like we should.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
I should be able to get to one tonight. I can take care of the series preview tomorrow if you’d like.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-qa-with-tom-tango-the-new-czar-of-statcast/
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-8-phillies-1/
dmick89Quote Reply