The Marlins have a winning record? Fuck the heck? Despite the Wei-Yin Chen signing most people were expecting them to be one of the many NL teams rebuilding this year, but once again they seem to have built a competitive team. Most importantly, a cheap competitive team. At the team level, they’re right around the league average at the plate and on the mound. The only big thing that jumps out is their defensive numbers, which rank third by UZR but seventh by DRS, and third overall by whatever fangraphs uses to give an overall defensive number.
Team Leaders
Cubs
- OBP: Ben Zobrist (.413)
- ISO: Anthony Rizzo (.281)
- HR: Rizzo/Kris Bryant (17)
- R+RBI: Kris Bryant (100)
- wRC+: Rizzo (155)
- BSR: Bryant (3.0)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (9.83)
- SP BB/9: Jon Lester (1.96)
- SP FIP: Arrieta (2.50)
- RP K/9: Pedro Strop (13.34)
- RP BB/9: Hector Rondon (1.11)
- RP FIP: Rondon (1.85)
- WAR: Bryant (3.3)
Marlins
- OBP: Ichiro Suzuki (.422)
- ISO: Marcell Ozuna (.248)
- HR: Ozuna (15)
- R+RBI: Ozuna (88)
- wRC+: Ozuna (152)
- BSR: Christian Yelich (0.9)
- SP K/9: Jose Fernandez (12.83)
- SP BB/9: Wei-Yin Chen (2.16)
- SP FIP: Fernandez (2.04)
- RP K/9: Kyle Barraclough (16.01)
- RP BB/9: Nick Wittgren (2.08)
- RP FIP: David Phelps (2.37)
- WAR: Fernandez/Ozuna (3.3)
It is not surprising to see a single name dominating the Marlins batting leaderboards. It is pretty surprising that the name is not Giancarlo Stanton, who has a .211/.311/.427 line on the year and is barely above replacement level. He’s still getting walks (11.9% BB rate) but he just can’t seem to put the ball in play (33.7% K rate).
Pitching matchups
K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.
Thursday: Jon Lester, LHP (9.03, 1.96, 2.06, 2.97, 3.04) vs Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (7.37, 2.16, 5.22, 4.74, 4.33), 6:10 PM CT
Chen’s strikeout and walk rates look reasonable to pretty good, but when batters actually make contact with the ball he’s getting crushed. He has given up 15 home runs in fourteen starts, though a relatively reasonable .303 BABIP. He hopes for his own sake that his HR/FB and LOB% numbers normalize, as he has an opt out following the second year of the surprising 5/80 contract he received from the Marlins this offseason. Given their past history, the Marlins are probably hoping he opts out too. He was pulled in the third inning of his last start after giving up six runs on seven hits and two walks with just one strikeout.
Friday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (8.25, 2.15, 2.94, 3.13, 3.56) vs Tom Koehler, RHP (7.50, 5.08, 3.92, 3.93, 4.13), 6:10 PM CT
Hendricks is coming off a very un-Hendricks-like performance, striking out twelve batters in six innings. The lack of walks was still very Hendricks-like at least. He’s come down to earth a little bit from his hot start, but not by much.
Koehler might have a future as a Wandy Rodriguez HOFer, but so far he’s failed to break past being a below average pitcher. It makes it no less frustrating when he pitches well against the Cubs. I keep thinking he’s a rookie, but he’s been starting regularly for the Marlins since 2013. He has seen an enormous spike in his walk rate this year, but a matching drop in his HR rate seems to have canceled it out. He shutout the Rockies for six innings in his last start, despite giving up six walks.
Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (9.29, 2.30, 2.78, 3.26, 3.30) vs Paul Clemens, RHP (3.60, 5.40, 5.40, 11.92, 5.34), 3:10 PM CT
The first impression you get from opening Clemens’s fangraphs page is row after row of minor league teams that he’s played for. It’s hard to believe that he has only been in five systems. When he debuted with the Astros in 2013 he was a decent enough prospect (#5 in the system that was rapidly rebuilding), but was pretty bad even by the standards of the 2013 Astros and spent all of last year getting knocked around in AAA, mostly as a reliever. That he’s starting at all speaks to the Marlins rotation depth. He gave up three homers, somehow all of them solo shots, in his Marlins debut earlier this week.
Sunday: Jason Hammel, RHP (7.41, 2.77, 2.55, 3.82, 3.95) vs Jose Fernandez, RHP (12.83, 2.77, 2.36, 2.04, 2.64), 12:10 PM CT
Jose Fernandez is good. Maybe the only reason the Marlins have a winning record is to make him feel less bad whenever his commercial that talks about how much he loves winning comes on.
Comments
I wouldn’t mind Vogelbach getting called up to spell Rizzo for a time during this stretch. His Ruthian-light bat at this level may really open up some eyes and inflate his value to prospective trade partners despite his Ruthian physique.
I want them to be a little cautious with Rizzo’s back. Invent an injury for Grimm or something—an 8-man bullpen is excessive.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Reading into Montero’s comments—one’s frustration with one’s own body can seem like frustration toward everything. He is clearly not the same player he was last year and he knows it. I wouldn’t read much more into it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Don’t tell me what you wouldn’t do.
SKQuote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t see Montero asking for a trade midseason, but it’s only natural for him to want to be the primary starter and that probably won’t the case for him again in Chicago. I think he will ask for a trade this offseason since I think he’s still one of the 30 best catchers in baseball and some team will want to use him as a starter. Also, I don’t think he’s of much use as a backup since his defense is below average to bad.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I just don’t see how they can carry three catchers for much longer. Castillo got traded around this time last year, didn’t he? Contreras still probably needs a couple weeks to make sure he’s definitely up for good, but after that, it makes no sense to have both Montero and Ross start 20% of games.
Unless they really want Montero to fulfill the Ross role next year.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I could easily see that. If Contreras shows he can handle the job defensively, and so far
I’ve not seen anything that says he can’t, there’s not much reason to carry three catchers. It really limits the bench and with eight relievers it’s already limited enough.
I think Castillo was traded earlier in the season, but your point still stands.
dmick89Quote Reply
That was a very efficient inning. I hope Jake is taking notes.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Joe considering Willson in the OF. –Len
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
Forgot about Schwarber. So there were usually three catchers on the roster.
SKQuote Reply
Dammit, I thought this game was supposed to start a half hour from now (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
True, but it’s not like Schwarber was going to be wearing a groove into the bench on days where he wasn’t catching
berseliusQuote Reply
See Comment #8
SKQuote Reply
Lester dealing tonight
berseliusQuote Reply
SK,
I wouldn’t want to point out that I didn’t.
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
SK,
I think the difference this time is that the Cubs actually think Contreras behind the plate on a regular basis is their best option. They’ve already said he’ll catch a couple times a week and that’s way more than they were willing to commit to with Schwarber last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
So nobody wants to see Vogelbach called up? I want him to have the opportunity to do what Schwarber did last year just so Olney will stop with this Schwarber for Miller nonsense.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t think Vogelbach has anywhere near the home run potential that Schwarber has, but if Rizzo is the latest victim to these injuries I wouldn’t mind seeing him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Now I feel silly for putting Ozuna on my All-Star ballot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Amazed that Baez shot didn’t make it to the wall on the fly, that was hit HARD
berseliusQuote Reply
That was unfortunate.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Come on, Albert.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Not 40 homeruns, but 20+ is a good bet with really good plate discipline.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That was a missed opportunity.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs’ sequencing has been unfortunate of late. At least they got Heyward in.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I would also like to see the Cubs be very aggressive in extending some of these youngs guys the way Castro and Rizzo were—Russell, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, Rondon, and Hendricks. I assume Bryant won’t take one at such a good value.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, why couldn’t that warning-track fly come with one out?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Runners don’t seem to have a good record running on Lester this year.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Damn it.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Willson saves an error.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
All Willson. All the time.
umbraQuote Reply
Anyone know why Ian Happ isn’t playing tonight?
dmick89Quote Reply
Fuck this noise.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Lester is getting screwed by this ump.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Didn’t he just get promoted?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs lose
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
https://mobile.twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/746097369549246465
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
They’ll never win another game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Damn. At least the bases weren’t clogged.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yeah. I didn’t see that. Thanks.
dmick89Quote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Baez!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
no fucking way, Baez
berseliusQuote Reply
He was probably safe, though. Oh well.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Don’t be silly. They’ll win a couple.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fixed for clarity.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I like this Willson character. He is so versatile, I bet he could star opposite Tom Hanks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Grandpa!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m glad Lester won’t lose this one.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rossy!
dmick89Quote Reply
As a bald man with a beard who sucks at throwing to first base, I really identify with Jon Lester.
umbraQuote Reply
Bear claw time.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
umbra,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I was really hoping Rizzo could pinch-hit here.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I said, “You got any Barracloughs?”
She said, “NO, WE’RE OUTTA BARRACLOUGHS!”
I said, “You got any apple fritters?”
She said, “Wait a minute, I’ll go check.”
umbraQuote Reply
First Cubs walk in the 8th inning.
Weird.
umbraQuote Reply
Make ’em pay, Willson!
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
All I got right now is this box of one dozen starving, crazed weasels
berseliusQuote Reply
Don’t tell’m what to do.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dammit
berseliusQuote Reply
The Plan is working perfectly. We lumbersexuals are a very important demographic. (dying laughing)
And…Cubs lose.
ceruleanQuote Reply
?
berseliusQuote Reply
Bad Strop.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
All right, I’ll take that.
In other news, FUCK.
umbraQuote Reply
This losing sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fuck this shit. We’re gonna sneak into the playoffs, lose in the first round, then have to watch some dogshit team like the Giants shit rainbows, go 99-6 in one-run games, and win another fucking world series they don’t deserve. Fuck it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Who the fuck gets a doctorate in film studies, specializing in blacksploitation and niche market films?
Women I date, gang. Thanks, Internet!
umbraQuote Reply
o9r
uncle daveQuote Reply
Come on, Grampy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ewww, nice camo Cubs hat, brah.
umbraQuote Reply
Balk!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
“Whoopi Goldberg, depending on your generation.”
What?
umbraQuote Reply
Come on, Chris.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Now we know Rizzo is unavailable.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bases jammed full of blue stuff.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m so excited! I’m so excited! I’m so excited! I’m so…SCARED!
umbraQuote Reply
Stick it to your former team Cogs!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Come on, Ben.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Dammit.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Fuck this bullshit. That’s three of four games where they’ve left it on the table.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I hate baseball.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Get Vogelbach up here so he can rake and the Cubs can trade him for Miller.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
+1
joshQuote Reply
I wasn’t expecting this kind of performance until the NLCS. Peaking early, methinks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I can’t wait for Maddon to tell the press what an exciting game this was.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
(dying laughing)
I need to get off the ledge. But watching the Giants do so well right now even though they have fuck all to offer the world while we’re losing games with bullshit, penny-ante breaks is giving me bad flashbacks to 2014. The A’s were twice the team the Giants were, but we know how that ended up. Fuck it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
It is an even-numbered year in the 2010s. The Giants are inevitable.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Buster Posey is going to retire with as many rings as Yogi Berra.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The 1927 Yankees lost four straight games just once. Of course, they never lost their first baseman with a bad back.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ drew a walk in his first appearance (PH) for the Smokies. I expect he will start tomorrow instead of Gilderoy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bonus sadface—the Cubs have now lost more than half of their wins.
UNACCEPTABLE!
ceruleanQuote Reply
SB Cubs put up a 10 spot in the eighth. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Dylan Cease is live on Emerald’s radio. Three strikeouts of the first five batters.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Promote them. We need some late-inning offense on the Big League club.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
You’re goddamn right.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They’ll be up in August. Give the big league players time to get injured first.
dmick89Quote Reply
In one sequence, Cease located a 74mph curve and then hit 98mph with his fastball. The announcer said that the gun there was notoriously slow—take that with a grain of salt, 98 is good enough.
7 strikeouts, 0 walks, 3 hits, 1 hit-by-pitch, 1 run allowed, earned, in 4 innings. He also had a pickoff erased by balking.
Also, 5–0 GO–FO.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Love those strikeout, walk And groundout to fly out numbers. And the fastball velocity.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-2-marlins-4-6-23-16/
berseliusQuote Reply