Last Year:
Most thought that the Cardinals had all the pieces to run away with the NL Central, but somehow it never came together. Their offense dipped by 4 points from their 2009 rate to a .321 wOBA, good for 7th in the NL. Their pitchers posted an excellent 3.57 ERA (4th) and a 3.85 FIP (7th), and their defensive numbers were all over the place (+61 by DRS (1st), +18 by FSR (4th), and -14.2 by UZR (11th)).
The Cardinals started off strong out of the gate, winning their first game and remaining in first place until mid-May. They traded the top spot with the Reds for the next three months before the Reds finally pulled away in mid-August. They were desparate to fill the hole caused by Brad Penny’s injury in mid-May, which resulted in his missing the rest of the season. SP Kyle Lohse went down a week later and missed about three months. At the trade deadline, they moved RF Ryan Ludwick and picked up SP Jake Westbrook, who posted a 3.48 ERA / 3.52 FIP down the stretch for the Cards. They also picked up the finally-released Jeff Suppan from the Brewers and somehow managed to get him to post a 3.86 ERA (despite a FIP near 5) in 70 or so innings.
Offseason Moves:
The Cardinals re-signed Westbrook to a 2/16.5 deal in December. Given that he’s a sinkerballer, he should fit in just fine with Dave Duncan. Just after Thanksgiving, they traded for Dance Fever (dying laughing) in exchange for Blake Hawksworth. A few days later they sent their incumbent defensive-specialist SS Brendan Ryan to Seattle. They signed Lance Berkman to a 1/8 contract to be their primary RF, despite the fact that he hasn’t played there since 2007. We’ll get plenty of enjoyment out of his misadventures in RF, as well as the added opportunities for Mercurial Outfielder to bust out his embarassing Berkman pic collection. The most important offseason development wasn’t a front office move — top pitcher Adam Wainwright required Tommy John surgery on his elbow after an injury in early spring training.
Players To Watch:
All eyes will be on Pujols as well they should, but with Wainwright out the Cards need their young starters McClellan and Garcia to step up. Garcia was incredible last year, posting a 2.70 ERA in 163 innings. He had some luck with respect to HRs, but the projection systems agree that he’ll be pretty good. We’ve seen a lot of McClellan in the Cardinals pen for the last three years, where he’s been fairly effective, but it’s a big question mark whether his stuff will translate to the rotation or how many innings he’ll be able to pitch.
Projections:
Here’s a rough look at their team headed into the 2011 season. Since we don’t know a ton about not the Cubs, we used Baseball Prospectus’s depth charts to estimate playing time. The players OBP/SLG are a simple average of their PECOTA and Oliver projections. The defensive numbers are from the players’ 2010 Fan Scouting Report, and baserunning was ignored unless a player was especially good or awful on the basepaths.
| Hitter | Pos | PA | OBP | SLG | Fld | WAR |
| Yadier Molina | CA | 500 | 0.335 | 0.352 | 1.9 | 2.71 |
| Gerald Laird | CA | 120 | 0.288 | 0.318 | 0.5 | 0.01 |
| Albert Pujols | 1B | 650 | 0.425 | 0.601 | 0.8 | 7.84 |
| Lance Berkman | 1B | 74 | 0.382 | 0.458 | 0 | 0.34 |
| Skip Schumaker | 2B | 450 | 0.338 | 0.358 | -0.9 | 0.14 |
| Nick Punto | 2B | 209 | 0.317 | 0.300 | 0.5 | -0.09 |
| Ryan Theriot (LOL) | SS | 600 | 0.332 | 0.326 | -0.6 | 0.14 |
| Nick Punto | SS | 90 | 0.317 | 0.300 | 0 | -0.04 |
| David Freese | 3B | 550 | 0.325 | 0.424 | 0.1 | 1.65 |
| Nick Punto | 3B | 106 | 0.317 | 0.300 | 0.5 | -0.05 |
| Matt Holliday | LF | 650 | 0.384 | 0.503 | 0.1 | 4.46 |
| Allen Craig | LF | 58 | 0.329 | 0.439 | -0.1 | 0.11 |
| Colby Rasmus | CF | 600 | 0.330 | 0.425 | 0 | 1.89 |
| Jon Jay | CF | 74 | 0.324 | 0.375 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Lance Berkman | RF | 495 | 0.382 | 0.458 | -0.5 | 2.27 |
| Jon Jay | RF | 126 | 0.324 | 0.375 | 0.5 | 0.08 |
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | WAR |
| Chris Carpenter | S | 180 | 3.30 | 4.58 |
| Kyle McClellan | S | 120 | 3.76 | 2.28 |
| Jaime Garcia | S | 176 | 3.87 | 3.09 |
| Jake Westbrook | S | 186 | 4.31 | 2.25 |
| Kyle Lohse | S | 157 | 4.79 | 1.06 |
| Miguel Batista | S | 120 | 5.26 | 0.25 |
| Ryan Franklin | R | 65 | 3.97 | 0.73 |
| Jason Motte | R | 60 | 3.78 | 0.68 |
| Trever Miller | R | 60 | 3.80 | 0.51 |
Win talent: 85.5
I was quite surprised to see this – I thought the Wainwright injury would easily send them down the ladder in the division. There are a few things I would quibble with – Berkman is probably going to be pretty awful in RF, “Big Puma” or not. I also suspect that McClellan’s projection is based more on relieving than starting, so that ERA should probably be higher. On the other hand, I have no idea how Colby Rasmus ended up with a zero in the FSR. Given how lousy they are likely to be in the middle infield, their groundball-tilted pitching staff might see a lot more problems this season. Overall though I think my prediction above is what the season hinges on – if McClellan can pitch well in the rotation and Garica avoids a sophomore slump, they’ll be in good shape.
Comments
[quote name=mb21]I really liked mlb.tv on PS3, but it just wasn’t as good as MLB EI. I can’t wait to get it again this year, but won’t have it until tomorrow.[/quote]
What’s so different about EI, MB? Just that your bandwidth is so big?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]
[/quote]
Yes.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Yeah I enjoy the options for TV Booth and DVR. It’s a really nice setup with the PS3, I just hope my connection drops less this year (though my PS3 is not in the best shape). Quality is really good on the iPad, hope I can utilize that for the Rays so I can keep my TV on my TV input.
MishQuote Reply
I think this is the first year MLB.tv will be on Android phones. I was super stoked about the prospect of watching baseball on my hour commute home this summer, until I realized I only have 5 GB of data a month before I get charged up the ass.
GBTSQuote Reply
I have no remembrance of who took him or when, but Mish, what round did you draft Hellickson?
GBTSQuote Reply
When we got Uverse we got 18 Megs per second download speed for the internet. The connection is fine, but the ridiculous problem with Uverse is that connection is shared throughout the house.
As for EI, you can watch it on any TV without having to move the PS3 around, which is kind of a pain in the ass. The picture is without a doubt better. You don’t have to worry about your internet feed dropping for some reason.
The package itself is basically the same. EI is more expensive, but it’s worth it in my opinion. I have the PS3 hooked up downstairs in my office, but it’s much more comfortable to sit in the living room or the upstairs family room. Also, I won’t have to buy another PS3 or some other gaming system because I figure it’s more important the kids are having fun doing something than it is me watching a baseball game.
The other thing is that although the tv in my office is HD, it’s relatively old now.
One last thing, I just like being able to turn the tv on and watch a game. I like to use one remote. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I think this is the first year MLB.tv will be on Android phones. I was super stoked about the prospect of watching baseball on my hour commute home this summer, until I realized I only have 5 GB of data a month before I get charged up the ass.[/quote]Gone Back to Schaumburg?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Yeah, EI as a regular TV service probably has four or five nines reliability (99.99(9)%).
Internet shit has no such thing.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Bubbles apologizes for his gif gone wrong
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
The PS3 kicks ass compared to watching the game on a computer though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I have no remembrance of who took him or when, but Mish, what round did you draft Hellickson?[/quote]
Eleven.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The PS3 kicks ass compared to watching the game on a computer though.[/quote]That’s true. As long as your connection is good enough.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Yeah, EI as a regular TV service probably has four or five nines reliability (99.99(9)%).
Internet shit has no such thing.[/quote]Exactly. It’s even worse with Uverse. Doesn’t matter what download speed I get. There’s just too much going on in the house and that doesn’t leave much to watch a game.
If I had a different carrier, I’d probably have liked it a lot more. Uverse sucks. Don’t ever get it. It’s a nightmare.
mb21Quote Reply
Internet speeds are unreliable no matter what. You’re always going to lose the feed at some point. At least with EI the only time you’re going to lose the game is if there’s a ridiculously strong storm outside or if your power goes out.
mb21Quote Reply
And if your power went out or if there was a storm, you’d lose the internet too.
mb21Quote Reply
Law saw McNutt yesterday
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]And if your power went out or if there was a storm, you’d lose the internet too.[/quote]
Thanks, Benjamin Franklin.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Law saw McNutt yesterday[/quote]
Bust.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Well, then I’m praying for a strike.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Is he the only rookie allowed to play in the NL this year?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Well, then I’m praying for a strike.[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Bust.[/quote]
Bullpen..
Also did anyone else see Kyler Burke is getting the bullpen test?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Alvin]…maybe Darwin Barney will become a serious Rookie of the Year candidate…[/quote]
Steve Stone applaudes
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Well, then I’m praying for a strike.[/quote]
He could just be saying that baseball breaks up his kidney stones.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/3/31/2082763/life-the-cubs-and-hope-springs-eternal?login=1301584091
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Sweet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah! So stop doing that, Florida Marlins!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Friday song interpreted by a lip reader: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GaKaGwch0U
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/3/31/2082763/life-the-cubs-and-hope-springs-eternal?login=1301584091[/quote]I got nothing.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Yeah! So stop doing that, Florida Marlins![/quote]
Just retarded. Yes, you don’t just give him up for anything, but if there’s a deal where you benefit from it, you do it.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I got nothing.[/quote]
KOWOH posted all that needed to be said.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]you don’t just give him up for anything, but if there’s a deal where you benefit from it, you do it.[/quote]
WRONG. It doesn’t happen.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]KOWOH posted all that needed to be said.[/quote]That was an unpleasant combo of narcissism, gratuitous patriotism, tragedy, and narcissism.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
FanGraphs is finishing up their org ratings. Tampa Bay is #4, Philly #3. Which leaves Boston and the Yankees at the top two spots (probably later today or tomorrow).
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]That was an unpleasant combo of narcissism, gratuitous patriotism, tragedy, and narcissism.[/quote]
I like that there’s twice as much narcissism mixed in.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I like that there’s twice as much narcissism mixed in.[/quote]Correct.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Yeah! So stop doing that, Florida Marlins![/quote]
Who is Al babbling about there?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Who is Al babbling about there?[/quote]
I’m guessing Soto.
The other thing is, if you think 31 is going to be Soto’s age the next time the Cubs contend, and given standard attrition for catchers, it does make sense to trade him, noting that prospects may still be a year, or two, or three away, but will graduate just in time for the next contender.
I blame Al for much of the Cubs fans stupidity.
MishQuote Reply
Threw up (poor word choice) some quick, no-methodology predictions for 2011 – feel free to chime in with yours (semi-patterned after something I read at either FG or BtB)
NL Playoffs: Phillies, Braves*, Brewers, Rockies
AL Playoffs: Red Sox, Yankees*, White Sox, Oakland
* – Wild Card
World Series: Braves over White Sox
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
AL Position Player WAR Leader: Evan Longoria
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee
AL Pitching WAR Leader: Felix Hernandez
NL Pitching WAR Leader: Cliff Lee
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman
AL Rookie WAR Leader: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Brandon Belt
Happy Opening Day to everyone – remember, today, everyone’s in last place!
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]
I blame Al for (insert your own issue).[/quote]
This meme should work for anything.
I blame Al for prostate cancer.
I blame Al for the extinction of the dinosaurs.
I blame Al for bad pierogis.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Darwin Barney
AL Rookie WAR Leader: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Brandon Belt[/quote]
Fixed.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Wade Davis ——-> Rays on a 4-7 year deal. THREE club options. Wow.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Wade Davis ——-> Rays on a 4-7 year deal. THREE club options. Wow.[/quote]
The Rays seem to like doing those gamble-y team-friendly deals. It’s amazing that they actually work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sky Kalkman points out that the first option year would have been an arb year, so it would have been an option anyway. I didn’t realize he was so far from FA
BerseliusQuote Reply
If Colby Rasmus is as good as he was last year and LaRussa doesn’t let him get more than 600 PA, then someone needs to start a freecolbyrasmus webpage.
SamQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Wade Davis ——-> Rays on a 4-7 year deal. THREE club options. Wow.[/quote]
This is almost exactly what they did with Shields. For Davis, only 12.6M is guaranteed or thereabouts, but could be worth $35M over 7 years. Shields got a guaranteed 4 years at $11.25, and then $28 or so spread over his three option years.
I motherfucking nut over how the Rays do business. Just awesome.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]I’m guessing Soto.
The other thing is, if you think 31 is going to be Soto’s age the next time the Cubs contend, and given standard attrition for catchers, it does make sense to trade him, noting that prospects may still be a year, or two, or three away, but will graduate just in time for the next contender.
I blame Al for much of the Cubs fans stupidity.[/quote]
See his rationale is wrong but i think the idea of trading soto is not good to me. I thnik this team is fringe contention this year and then with a good offseason can contend for sure next year. i would think soto would be part of that
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]See his rationale is wrong but i think the idea of trading soto is not good to me. I thnik this team is fringe contention this year and then with a good offseason can contend for sure next year. i would think soto would be part of that[/quote]
You’re much more optimistic than me, but I’d have to think harder because this was a thought I had when the Cubs farm was good. It’s not anymore.
MishQuote Reply
Poz’s 32 top players.
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/03/31/the-32-best-players-in-baseball-for-2011/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]You’re much more optimistic than me, but I’d have to think harder because this was a thought I had when the Cubs farm was good. It’s not anymore.[/quote]
I am for sure much more optimistic. I just think the pitching is good potentail to be very good, our division aint great, and if the offense is better than expected we could contend. But if the offense is as bad as it could be than we are guaranteeily a 4th place (maybe 5th place) team
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
FG added ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- to player pages:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/era-fip-xfip/
MishQuote Reply
Happy Opening Day, patient motherfuckers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xBxZGQ1dJk
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Joe P doesnt have CarGo… Bizarre
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]FG added ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- to player pages:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/era-fip-xfip/%5B/quote%5DI'm sure Cistulli will be along with a 5,000 word tome on how there’s an analogue to this in obscure Victorian pulp-paper novellas.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Joe P doesnt have CarGo… Bizarre[/quote]No way Beltre or Youk should be anywhere near that list, either.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m sure Cistulli will be along with a 5,000 word tome on how there’s an analogue to this in obscure Victorian pulp-paper novellas.[/quote]
LSA +1 faget point NAMBLA
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’d invest in some Cincy hospitals if I were you
BerseliusQuote Reply
Next up on the GAB menu
You take a hot dog top it with some jack cheese wrap it in a pizza…you got cheesy blasters!
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cincy already has 40,000 hot dog places in the city anyway. Besides, some people actually eat their chili dog with spaghetti so something is clearly wrong with them. That Skyline Chili sucks. I mean seriously. It sucks. It’s like they took chili and figured out the one way you could make it suck. Impressive.
mb21Quote Reply
There should be hospitals inside sports stadiums. Those places have to have the most unhealthy food ever consumed.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Cincy already has 40,000 hot dog places in the city anyway. Besides, some people actually eat their chili dog with spaghetti so something is clearly wrong with them. That Skyline Chili sucks. I mean seriously. It sucks. It’s like they took chili and figured out the one way you could make it suck. Impressive.[/quote]
Don’t they do everything but take a dump in the bowl?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There should be hospitals inside sports stadiums. Those places have to have the most unhealthy food ever consumed.[/quote]
State Fairs everywhere disagree
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think you could pick shit up off the street and it would be healthier than some of that stuff. Actual, real shit! (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Don’t they do everything but take a dump in the bowl?[/quote]I’m not sure they don’t even do that. I love Cincy. It’s one of my favorite cities and GAB is at the top of my list for favorite ballparks, but that chili and hot dog business should be made illegal. It’s just plain wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]State Fairs everywhere disagree[/quote]Fair enough. That’s the one thing.
mb21Quote Reply
Have any of you had that Skyline Chili? Do any of you like it?
mb21Quote Reply
Is Skyline chili different from whatever the famous chili there is called? I’ve only been to Cincinnati once a long time ago, but ISTR they are real proud of their local chili.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New post
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/obstructed-view-opening-day-roundtable.html
BerseliusQuote Reply