OSS: Cubs win another weird one.
Three up:
- Just looking over the WPA charts for this one is kind of strange. No Cubs position player had more than one hit, yet the Cubs had five different players on offense who posted a .100 WPA or greater, when usually you only see one or two, and two players who had hugely negative days. The two biggest plays of the game were not surprisingly the bases loaded walk to Ben Zobrist that tied the game (.390 WPA) and Matt Szczur scoring on the walk-off wild pitch that ended it (.345 WPA). And it wasn’t even the first run the Cubs scored on a wild pitch in the game! Bullpen meltdowns are fun when they happen to the other team, but calling this a meltdown almost sells it short. If baseball’s rules were changed so that the home team had to finish out the inning I feel like the Cubs would have won this game by five runs.
- John Lackey had a just okay game on the mound, but he had a great time in the batter’s box. He hit two doubles but was stranded each time by the Cubs offense.
- Justin Grimm was a little wild, but managed his eleventh consecutive scoreless outing. Given how Edwards has looked, if Grimm is back to something approximating his own self the pen looks a lot less of a concern going forward.
Three down:
- #Neverbunt. I don’t need to say more here.
- Kris Bryant ended the day with a -.233 WPA, mostly due to a horseshit strike three call in the ninth with runners on second and third. Jason Heyward posted a -.213 WPA but his negative PAs were a little more evenly spaced. One of these days his weak grounders are going to find a hole with RISP, I know it.
- Dee Gordon got on base three times without hitting the ball out of the infield. Dude is fast.
Next up: The Cubs have an off-day, then head to the Oakland Municipal Sewer System Coliseum to face the A’s for a three game set. I hope Addison Russell has a huge series.
Comments
I still find it weird that people are so hung up on that bunt. It wasn’t a big deal. Probably very close to a break-even play, though I admit doing it on a full count is weird. Then again, I hate #neverbunt with a passion.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Berselius isn’t serious when he says #neverbunt but that bunt was stupid. You had a better hitter in Zobrist at the plate, a pitcher having trouble throwing strikes and the platoon advantage.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Zo is better from the right side, so there’s not much of a platoon advantage. In any case, it’s not easy to determine whether bunting is the wrong play or not. It’s probably very close and I don’t think you can just reason it out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I’m not sure where you were getting your numbers from yesterday, but that bunt was a -.023 WPA play.
There’s literally an entire chapter in The Book on this. I’m cool with bunting if it’s any of
a) a pitcher hitting
b) a situation where one run is all that matters (i.e. extras)
c) you’re trying to bunt for a hit
MGL also makes some game-theoretical arguments to say that very occasionally bunting is ok to keep the defense honest, but still, this was not that.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I meant Zobrist (platoon advantage) vs. Contreras (no platoon advantage). If Contreras was left handed, I’d have hated the bunt less.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I don’t think you’re considering the count in which he bunted. He had two strikes and had to put the ball in play against a guy that throws junk. Foul tip, bunt goes foul, he strikes out, or if the 1B can make a play at 3rd to cut the lead runner and you’re wasting the out.
The ends don’t justify the means.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
dmick89,
Both hitters are disadvantaged against righties. Zo’s disadvantage is slightly smaller since he’s a switch-hitter, but I don’t think that makes a huge difference
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
:berselius,
I misread the WPA charts yesterday. Yes, there’s a very small loss of WPA. the average outcome of a bunt attempt is likely higher which is why I said it is probably close to break even. I’m also familiar with that chapter of The Book. MGL wrote that it is often correct for position players to bunt in some situations (far more than you allow). He has said elsewhere that dismissing the sac bunt was one of the biggest mistakes sabermatricians made.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s the same kind of liberal rot that is running our once great country into the ground.
#makeAmericaGreatAgain
ceruleanQuote Reply
Heh.
Added to the list of People and the things they’ve sacrificed that are more than Trump ever has:
Ben Zobrist: bunts
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius, i’ll be in SF next week and i seem to recall you mentioning a really good dim sum place. was it this one?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
correct.gif
berseliusQuote Reply
tinstaapp blah blah blah but i am getting pretty excited to see what trevor clifton can do.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
berselius,
sweet, thanks.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Mark Prior: No Regrets (That makes one of us), and p.s. lay off Dusty.
http://www.si.com/thecauldron/2016/08/03/mark-prior-chicago-cubs-no-regrets
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
More than a K/IP? He clearly has not embraced the Cubs way.
ceruleanQuote Reply
In other news, the Reds are up 7-0 on the Cardinals. That’s halfway to a Reds BP-proof lead.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
7-0 with only 3 more outs for the bullpen. They need to add on.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cardinals lose
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lead is up to 9.5 going into this weekend. Here’s hoping the Barves can take at least one from the Cardinals.
PerkinsQuote Reply
He’s got a long way to go, but he’s the best pitching prospect in the organization in my worthless opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
yeah he’s the only one worth watching so i am pinning all of my hopes and dreams on him. there’s no way this will backfire.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I also really like Dylan Cease, but he’s so far away from the big leagues that it’s difficult to get very excited.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
yup and i think carson sands might have some promise. looks like the wheels kind of fell off of duane underwood but SSS so who knows. everyone else is pretty horrendous.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Underwood has never struckout enough batters for me to fully believe in what the scouts suggest he’s capable of. His strikeout rate is at least modest this season compared to last (horrible), but his walk rate has become horrible in the process. Apparently he has really good stuff and stranger things have happened than a guy like that finally putting it together to become very good, but more often than not they don’t.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sands doesn’t strike anybody out. I’m fairly sure that huge increases to strikeout rates are pretty rare. I’m sure it happens, but not very often.
dmick89Quote Reply
Brad Markey has the strikeout numbers I like to see in a pitcher at 24 in AA.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
yeah i realize i’m scraping the bottom of the barrel with underwood but you gotta take what oyu can get. and holy shit, i for some reason didn’t realize that carson sands had such a shitty K rate. not sure why but i was thinking it was much higher.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Oscar De La Cruz is another to be excited about. 23/4 K/BB rate and 3 ER in 16 innings since starting the season last month. Those are video game numbers, too lofty for him to expect to continue it, but it’s always good to see dominance.
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Maybe you were thinking of Justin Steele. Carson Sands, Justin Steele—they both seem to have gotten their names from the random name generator used by pulp fiction writers.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Jose Paulino has been a surprise. A power lefty that can hit 96mph with 43/7 K/BB rate in 45 innings this year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/cubs-anthony-rizzo-kris-bryant-david-ross-retirement/
dmick89Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-cubs-66-41-oakland-48-60/
berseliusQuote Reply