Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (66-41) at Oakland A’s (48-60)

In Series Previews by berselius66 Comments

What are these strange things called off….days? Several Cubs spent the day relaxing on their west coast travel day, and they even get one on the way back too. It certainly beats 3+ weeks with no breaks other than the Reds. West coast series suck all around, but at least only one game is a night game.

Team Leaders

Cubs

A’s

*Former Cub and now former A Rich Hill was the leader in all of these categories until the trade deadline. It was pretty tough picking off these leaders when several of them ended up being either traded or sent to the minors.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.

Freya’s day: Jon Lester, LHP (8.77, 2.66, 2.95, 3.89, 3.33) vs Dillon Overton, LHP (5.40, 2.95, 9.33, 9.30, 5.31), 9:05 PM CT

Lester’s peripherals aren’t as good as I would have guessed, but that ERA number is still doing just fine. It’s not just that more fly balls are leaving the yard, he’s also walking a few more batters than he did last year. Still, it’s kind of funny to see him having a 83.5% strand rate. Not that holding runners on really has anything to do with it, but somehow they’re connected in my head anyway.

Based on his projection line, Overton is cannon fodder that the A’s are hoping to soak up whatever innings he can for their shambles of a pitching staff. I can’t wait for him to no-hit the Cubs through seven innings. He was wrecked by the Giants and Cleveland for 13 runs in 6.1 innings in his two bad starts, his two ‘good’ ones were six runs over 12 innings against the Astros and the Los Angeles Mike Trout of Anaheim.

Saturn’s day: Jake Arrieta, RHP (9.31, 3.28, 2.75, 3.00, 2.69) vs Sonny Gray, RHP (7.38, 3.41, 5.84, 4.79, 3.64), 3:05 PM CT

Arrieta’s walk rate is the highest it’s been since he became a Cub, which brings him back down to earth and ‘really good’ from the dizzying heights of ‘destroyer of worlds’ that we saw in last year’s stretch run. That whole weak contact thing still is working out just fine.

Gray, meanwhile, has been an utter disaster this year. Scouting the statline the main culprits seem to be a spike in HR/FB, sequencing (63.8% strand rate), and maybe some bad defense too (.321 BABIP despite a mere 18% LD rate). His strikeout and walk rates regressed a bit but not nearly enough to explain this lost season. Teams that coveted him last year (the Cubs among them) must be heaving a sigh of relief that Beane didn’t want to deal him.

SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY: Kyle Hendricks, ACE (7.73, 2.51, 2.22, 3.33, 3.59) vs Sean Manaea, LHP (7.70, 2.24, 4.68, 4.21, 4.33), 3:05 PM CT

Last week’s shutout aside, Hendricks still isn’t a goes deep into games kind of pitcher, but at least he’s removed any uncertainty over the Cubs playoff rotation.

Manaea is the best pitcher on the A’s kind of by default. He’s been pretty streaky all year, but he really settled down in July, going four straight starts without issuing a walk. The wheels came off a bit in his last start against LAMToA, so it would be nice if the Cubs catch him in a cold streak.

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Comments

  3. SK

    dmick89,

    Good times. My wife and I spent a week walking the Camino de Santiago de Compostela in Spain. We only did a short version — 75 miles — but it was still a challenge because I’m not used to walking 7 hours a day. Glad to say I was able to finish it without any major embarrassment or injury other than a sore ankle and a couple blisters.

    I see the Cubs had a good week too.

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  9. Edwin

    I’d love love for Hendricks to start going deeper. Right now I feel like he’s just acheiving the tip of his potential, and I for one want more than just the tip.

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  12. dmick89

    Edwin,

    I don’t know. I’m fine with it, but I kind of feel like none of the Cubs starters should be pitching in the 7th inning or later if the score is tied or they have a modest lead (say 2 or 3 runs).

    If they’re behind they’d probably be out by that time anyway.

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  14. Edwin

    dmick89,

    I was just trying to make a crass (and very very very very funny) sex word play joke. By the number of upvotes I’ve received, it totally worked.

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  15. Rizzo the Rat

    Edwin,

    Pitchers get worse each time through the order. Part of the reason Hendricks’ rate numbers are so good is that hitters aren’t getting so many looks at him.

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  17. cerulean

    Edwin:
    dmick89,

    I was just trying to make a crass (and very very very very funny) sex word play joke.By the number of upvotes I’ve received, it totally worked.

    I’d say you hit that one off the end of the bat, poking it just short of making the shortstop work to stop the ball before it could drop like the prepubescent euphemism it was.

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  18. cerulean

    Overton is an interesting arm that should absolutely not be part of a rotation yet. That said, I will enjoy the no-hitter into the seventh before the grandslam after three consecutive walks to end it.

    #pitchersDuelToLaugher

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  19. Edwin

    dmick89,

    I agree. I think pulling a pitcher before they let up the big inning is a big part of being a good manager. Times Through the Order is sort of a new concept for a lot of managers, so good on the Cubs for being forward thinking and finding ways to get the most out of their pitchers.

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  24. GW

    It was pretty tough picking off these leaders when several of them ended up being either traded or sent to the minors.

    Reddick and Burns are both gone

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  26. cerulean

    dmick89:
    cerulean,

    Exactly. With Strop, Rondon, Chapman and if one needs a breather then you’ve got Edwards and Grimm.

    And Montgomery.
    And Wood.
    And Smith.
    And Nathan.
    And Cahill.
    And Patton.
    And all your relief pitchers are belong to Theo.

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  34. cerulean

    Thinking about extensions for the (pre-)arbitration Cubs:

    It occurs to me that for the same price of $450M for six more years of Arrieta and Bryant, they could probably lock up Contreras ($50M), Baez ($60M), Almora ($40M), Russell ($60M), La Stella ($40M), Edwards ($10M), Rondon ($50M), Schwarber ($60M), and Hendricks ($80M).

    I am spitballing the numbers that I feel the players might find enticing enough to delay a payday for a bit of security, but it is just spitballing. I think Hendricks drives the hardest bargain, and at least one simply refuses to sign, but it seems about true. It makes a lot more sense for the team in both payroll impact and trade value, even if one ends up busting, because imagine if any of them have a Rizzo-like break out.

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  37. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I probably would trim that list down. No way would I even consider extending Almora or Edwards at this point. Or La Stella. I’d like to see Contreras every day behind the plate before I’d consider locking him up too.

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  44. Rizzo the Rat

    Good god, Lincecum is a mess. I’m disappointed the Cubs will miss him (if indeed he ever pitches again).

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  45. cerulean

    dmick89:
    cerulean,

    I probably would trim that list down. No way would I even consider extending Almora or Edwards at this point. Or La Stella. I’d like to see Contreras every day behind the plate before I’d consider locking him up too.

    It was a thought experiment—hard to fill up the $450M that Bryant and Arrieta might reasonably be had for. I do think that Edwards and Almora might be had for bargains given their floors and ceilings.

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  54. cerulean

    umbra:
    This terrible defense just hurt Addison Russell. They are the worst.

    I just saw the replay. The ’Dorf should be fined. That is not okay.

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  56. cerulean

    dmick89:
    cerulean,

    True, but what are the odds would even end up paying Edwards that much were they to go year to year? That’s not all that much of a bargain if at all.

    Chapman will get $15M/year. Edwards has the stuff to close. Let’s say that he has a 50% chance of a sub-3.00 FIP with about 10/4 K/BB/9IP and a 10% chance of a sub-2.50 FIP with 11/3. If he is not very good, maybe he earns $4M through his arb years. If he is good, the 50% chance, he gets $16M. If he is lights out, the 10% chance, he gets $24M (assuming continued inflation of the position). It’s not much of a gamble. However, if he is really good, that is an asset at a fixed cost that has a lot of value.

    Rondon is getting $4.2M which is supposed to be 40% FMV, right? That’s $10.5M/year. Wood has made about $16M in total, though that has to do with his MVP season than anything else. Even so. Relief pitchers can get expensive.

    Speaking of Edwards, maybe he should come relieve Lester.

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  63. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I don’t think there’s a 50% chance he has a sub 3 FIP. It’s very likely we’ll see his walk rate more than double and his strikeout rate will come down. There’s literally no risk on the Cubs side to wait this one out. He won’t be getting any or many save opps so his arbitration value even in 3 years will be low. I would not even entertain signing him for $5 million at this point. He’ll be worth the same in a year or two as he would be now unless he becomes dominating at which point you’d be glad to pay a little extra. I see signing him, Almora and La Stella as unnecessary at this point. You’ve got time and in my opinion, they need to take the time on the guys to figure out how good they are. Same thing with Contreras.

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  65. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Edwards got wild in 2014. Something was off. He now looks like the highly touted prospect he was after 2013. I am not saying they should, but I am saying that it would be a shrewd move that I wouldn’t be able to talk myself out of.

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  66. dmick89

    Let’s guess at what the possible long term value of Edwards could be in terms of dollars.

    2016: $500,000
    2017: $500,000
    2018: $500,000
    2019: $750,000 – $3,000,000
    2020: $900,000 – $6,000,000
    2021: $1,200,000 – $12,000,000

    This assumes he’s healthy and good enough to stick around. If not, it’s even lower than above. Max value in my opinion is $22.5 million. There’s as good a chance he’s worth that in the end as there is that he’s worth under a million bucks.

    Carlos Marmol made $23 million in his career and he was fairly dominant for a rather long period. Not just a couple weeks.

    Odds are overwhelming at this point that he never makes a total of $10 million in Major League Baseball. Unless there’s something I’m missing, Almora looks like a 4th outfielder to me and Contreras has some sketchy defense behind the plate, but does have a canon for an arm.

    I’m not sure the Cubs have any young players at the moment other than Bryant that I’d want to lock up. I’d try really hard to lock him up. I’d like to see some more improvement at the plate for Russell before locking him up.

    I’d do as much as possible to get Kris to sign a long term deal.

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