As we start to turn the corner to the final stretch of the baseball regular season, people’s thoughts inevitably turn towards the MVP and Cy Young discussions. We’ve already seen at least one HOT TAEK in that regard, and I’m sure there will be plenty more. In the NL, however, there seems to be a 2-horse race between Kris Bryant and Corey Seager. I’d like to run down the top 10 candidates for NL MVP, and then focus on those 2.
Daniel Murphy leads the NL in slugging by nearly 50 points. Inexplicably, he’s been the best pure hitter in the NL with a 159 wRC+, and only a surprising lack of walks (especially for someone with his power numbers) puts a slight damper on his offensive ability. That said, he’s a butcher in the field.
Nolan Arenado is having a Larry Walker year – that is, Coors is making him look like this offensive juggernaut. 1.042 OPS at Coors, .745 OPS everywhere else. He’s a great defender, probably better than Bryant, but you almost have to hit .360/.440/.620 to get MVP consideration from Colorado. It’s just too easy to hit there.
Freddie Freeman is the best player in the league that over 75% of casual baseball fans have never once heard of. He’s hitting .288/.384/.543 for the worst team in baseball, and he improved his hard hit ball% to near the league high. He’s probably not the best 1B in the league this year, but he deserves a passing mention in hack MVP articles like this one.
Anthony Rizzo has basically been Freddie Freeman this year (.290/.394/.563) but a little better everywhere. That makes Freddie Freeman Pareto-suboptimal. Rizzo gets the standard “he’s a 1B” penalty to his MVP case, but he’s (as usual) one of the 5-10 best players in the league.
How’s Andrew Cashner doing?
Matt Carpenter is as annoyingly good as he usually is. He’s played all over for the Cardinals, and would perhaps be the MVP favorite had he played all season, but an injury has put him firmly in second-tier category.
Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto both have trinity lines this year (.3xx/.4xx/.5xx). They are so freaking good, as they are every year. This might be the first year where I can say I’d rather have Rizzo then Pauly G, but it’s super close. Votto struggled early this year, and then decided he was still the best hitter alive.
I’d be remiss not to include Clayton Kershaw at some point. His injury is the only reason he isn’t the actual favorite to win the MVP this year. It’s a legit argument to never vote for a pitcher for MVP, but he was having the best year since Pedro and it’s a real bummer he’s not healthy right now.
Those 8 are in some fungible order in competition for the 3rd through 10th slots. You could even put some random guys on there (Wil Myers, Buster Posey, Brendan Crawford) if you want to spice it up a bit. In my mind, though, 1st and 2nd are spoken for. It’s either Seager or Bryant.
The two batters have different profiles this year. The case for Bryant is that he’s simply the better player offensively.
Bryant: .289/.386/.544, 28 HR, 8 SB, .393 wOBA
Seager: .309/.362/.530, 21 HR, 1 SB, .376 wOBA
Comments
Hamilton is like the best album of music in the past my whole lifetime.
mylesQuote Reply
What happened to the end of the article? It ends with discussing their different profiles, then showing their offensive stats. Also, those stats are out of date. Finally, unfair shot at Larry Walker. He was an excellent player.
T.J. RohrQuote Reply
Uh, it didnt save my latest version. This is not the finished article, can someone get rid of this?
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
myles,
I must disagree. It is great, but it’s the lyrics that carry it, not the music. Best musical ever, yeah. But its music is compromised by the form.
I could agree with greatest. It certainly has that trajectory.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
Delete this specific article? Do you have the finished version saved on your hard drive?
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
Why give them an out there?
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not crazy about the bunt, either, especially with Addy’s strikeout tendencies.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was frustrating. Big RBI opportunity, two hitters watch strike three sail by.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I generally love this team’s patience, but with runners on second and third, you need a more aggressive approach.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I really hope Zobrist was bunting on his own. I also hope he got bitched at by Joe when he got back to the dugout.
dmick89Quote Reply
These FS1 announcers are brutal.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Now Hammel looks at strike 3 with a runner on second. This is getting ridiculous.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
JD seemed to think Zobrist did that on his own.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
That’s happened at least a few times this year. Not all of them were Zobrist, but I don’t get it. If I know that’s a stupid spot to bunt and I’m an idiot, what’s their excuse?
dmick89Quote Reply
Runners on first and second with no outs isn’t a stupid spot to bunt generally, even if I wouldn’t have done it in this case.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s also possible the defense wasn’t well-positioned for a bunt, which may have influenced the decision.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
It is when you’ve got a young pitcher on the mound, no outs and a worn out bullpen. Other than that, great idea.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Dodgers’ bullpen is very good. I’m not in a hurry to get there, even if they’re tired.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel is a flyball machine today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Me neither, but the point is they need innings from a starter and will leave Urias in even if he’s struggling. Last thing you want to do in that situation is help the starter out by giving him outs. Would also help if they swung at an occasional strike three.
dmick89Quote Reply
This sucks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Really good play by Baez.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow. He’s pulling Hammel already?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
least he won’t be hitting in the 6th
SKQuote Reply
I do like the idea of bringing in a southpaw to face the lefty lineup.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SK,
I’d rather Hammel hit than any of the bullpen arms (except Wood).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nobody beats the ‘stryz
SKQuote Reply
Runs, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
How did they double up Soler on that?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is looking like a brilliant bait-and-switch now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was a beauty of a bunt.
dmick89Quote Reply
Heyward!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
great ab there jh
SKQuote Reply
Heyward!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
ump needs to tell this asshole speed up
SKQuote Reply
SK,
The FS1 idiots were going on and on about Heyward’s hitting troubles, making that even more satisfying.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
i get the tootblan was on a hit and run, but I didn’t think this hard thrower was a good guy to try that on.
SKQuote Reply
This game is almost convincing me of the need for pitch clocks. How are we just starting the eighth inning?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
More runs, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have no idea what happened. I wrote a bunch more, published, and then it only saved the first draft. Ill look when i get home.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
Go into the edit post page and see if you see some text that says something like your browser had a more recent version, would you like to…?
dmick89Quote Reply
According to Rogers, Maddon said Zo was trying to catch the defense off-guard with the bunt and get a hit. As such, I’m fine with it. The result (a sac that advanced two runners) was only slightly negative, in any case.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cardinals lose. New magic number:
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The 2016 Cubs…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NOtoeI55ls
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Clayton Richard threw 7 scoreless innings today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
#FireTheo
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If you guys want to set up a new controversy or meme, Hammel is mad at Joe Maddon again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Hammel is an idiot. Wanna stay in longer? Pitch better.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Too logical.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess I can see why Hammel would be upset. These guys pitch every 5 days and want to pitch as much as possible when they do. It’s good that he’s upset, but he should probably be more upset with himself and maybe he is. He has a point that the hits found holes, but at such a high frequency that it probably required Joe to make the move. I’m sure this is something the media is making more of than it really is. Just wait until Hammel moves to the bullpen in October.
dmick89Quote Reply
That Dodgers lineup was practically begging for a lefty reliever.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
He says there were only two hard hit balls, but I recall some loud outs mixed in the the balls that “found holes”.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
The ball was going into the air quite a bit, and not just that screaming liner of a home run. He wasn’t missing bats at all.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Anyway, removing Hammel for Zastryzny made sense strategically, not because Hammel was struggling (that has no predictive value), but because of the composition of the lineup and the fact that all the batters faced him at least once. That said, I wonder if Maddon should have left him in a little longer for morale purposes. The Cubs have a comfortable lead in the division, after all.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s also a bit annoying that Zastryzny got an at-bat in such a close game. It would have been nice if that could have been avoided somehow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That would have meant an early double switch and I don’t think he was ready for that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-dodgers-game-thread-8-28-16/
dmick89Quote Reply