Three Four Up
1. Miguel Montero had a very nice day, with a basket homer and two other singles. Nice to see him heat up after a relatively cold start to the season. I'm not opposed to him getting 55 starts or so this year, just to help preserve Contreras.
2. Jason Heyward is still routinely crushing the ball. Last year, there were times where you'd say that but follow it up with (0-4, strikeout). This time, he still went 2-4; it's not "consolation power." Heyward looks very good this year, though…
3… Kyle Schwarber is the best hitter on the team. It's sort of incredible how good Schwarber is already. He sees SO MANY PITCHES that everyone after him gets almost the whole book on the opposing pitcher. I don't think he'll keep up the 36.1% K rate, either – he's very choosy with his swing selection, and as he swings earlier in counts, he'll put more balls in play. Even if he has a 30% strikeout rate, that's livable if Schwarber gets on base 35% of the time and slugs .500 or better – the former is almost certain and I'd bet on the latter as well. Today, Schwarber eviscerated a ball and had another single and walk. He also saw 22 pitches in his 5 plate appearances.
4. Jon Jay had the high WPA play of the day, ripping a triple to tie the game. Jay is faster than he seems, and he flew down the basepaths.
Three Down
1. Brian Duensing is a horrible pitcher. Who woul d have thought that a league average reliever who was injured in 2016 and struck out 4.44 per 9 the year before that wouldn't have worked out? I'd just as soon see what Rob Zastryzny can do than trot this guy out. Cut the bait, already.
2. Looks like Brett Anderson is cooked again. Again, not a huge surprised. He was getting smoked early and often, and Almora wasn't precisely located to save him this time. If anything keeps this team from the playoffs, it's going to be the pitching, which is much, much shakier than it was last year. If Anderson isn't injured, he'd better rebound quickly. The cavalry at the moment is Mike Montgomery (who I'm high on, but has a great chance of being a AAAA starter), Eddie Butler (who isn't going to strike anyone out and will be something akin to Chris Rusin, and Alec Mills (an actual intriguing option at the back of the rotation, but a huge open question mark who is himself nursing a sore ankle).
3. Ben Zobrist had a rough day, going 0-5 for 2 strikeouts. I'm also extremely sick of his walkup music and am not looking forward to hearing it 6 times tomorrow (the Cubs are scoring 11 runs).
This game in LOL
The Brewers struck out 12 times and walked once.
Next Game
Wednesday, 1:20 PM CST start
Tommy "Organizational Filler" Milone (4.36 career FIP, 699.1 innings) vs. Cyle Hendricks (3.31 career FIP, 461.1 career innings)
Comments
What? That’s not true at all. They added some good bullpen arms (Uehara and Davis), Duensing is no worse than Richard and the roation is 4/5 the same (and, let’s face it, Hammel was not very reliable).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Do you trust Brian Duensing, Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, Brett Anderson, or John Lackey right now?
The rotation is sort of the same, except Lackey is 38 instead of 37, and the 5th starter isn’t reliably mediocre like Hammel, he’s reliably injured. Clayton Richard pitched 14 innings for the Cubs last year, so having Duensing be him is not exactly a positive. Perhaps “very, very shaky” was stretching it, but I think the pitching is demonstrably worse.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
I don’t trust that they’ll always shut the opponent down, but they’ll hopefully keep the Cubs in games. I guess that’s all we can hope for right now without wholesale changes and a lot of good fortune.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
myles,
It would be irrational to change my opinion any of them based on what I’ve seen so far this young season.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
IOW, I don’t “trust” Strop, Grimm and Lackey less than last year, other than the fact that they’re each a year older.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The pitching is worse because Lester isn’t nearly as good as he was last year and neither is Hendricks. Anderson is worse than Hammel and Arrieta and Lackey are each a year older. So yeah, the pitching is quite a bit worse than how they performed last year. It’s not a whole lot worse than their true talent.
dmick89Quote Reply
Also, the Cubs aren’t likely to make it three years in a row without a serious injury in the rotation.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs are still way better than the next best team in the division though.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hope Hendricks can throw a shutout today because that’s the only way he can win with today’s lineup.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
The only real difference is no Schwarber. Zobrist is slumping, and Almora has swung the bat pretty well so far. I don’t mind this lineup. Maybe I’d swap Almora and Szczur in the 1 & 6 spots. But that’s probably why I’m an accountant and not a baseball manager.
TheVanQuote Reply
Today’s Squad
Szczur RF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Russell SS
Contreras C
Almora Jr. CF
Baez 2B
Hendricks P
Jay LF
mylesQuote Reply
Rejoice, no Zo today.
ceruleanQuote Reply
myles,
Despite the lack of Heyward, that should be a pretty great outfield defense today
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Hendricks could really use a couple more ticks of velocity.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Almora seems to be hitting well these days. Color me surprised.
EdwinQuote Reply
This strike zone is not ideal.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I wonder which team will be the first to have a pitcher throw a pitch >90 mph.
EdwinQuote Reply
Brewers, probably. Joe’s got to get Hendricks at least one more plate appearance.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This home stand sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hendricks line: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 SO.
EdwinQuote Reply
This team is straight trash right now.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Milone seems to be getting quite the zone right now.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
The walks are concerning, but all the home runs is what stands out.
dmick89Quote Reply
This strike zone is crap. As is the Cubs offense.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I miss last year when the Cubs scored approximately 8 runs per game in the early part of the season. That was a lot more fun. This is just the typical shit I’m used to watching.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s hard to score 8 runs per game with Szczur leading off.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Milone was pitching.
dmick89Quote Reply
I see the Cubs are doing that thing where they get my hopes up before letting me down.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Addy!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
anything interesting happening
SKQuote Reply
come on Willson
SKQuote Reply
Quite the AB for Al Morrow
SKQuote Reply
Javy just can’t not swing
SKQuote Reply
I don’t know why anyone would ever throw Javy a strike.
dmick89Quote Reply
Woof.
uncle daveQuote Reply
That Javy strikeout was as predictable as it was infuriating.
PerkinsQuote Reply
You could probably signal 4 balls as if to intentionally walk Javy and he’d have to swing and miss 3 times before he could take first.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
I would have pinch hit for him in that spot with literally anyone else on the roster.
dmick89Quote Reply
It probably wouldn’t be such a bad thing if Contreras and Almora (great at bat) didn’t take obvious strike 3 pitches.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bryant!
PerkinsQuote Reply
If Carl’s Jr is gonna pinch run he should at least take a two stride lead.
SKQuote Reply
KB!
SKQuote Reply
Walk it off, Ant.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Addy!!!!!
PerkinsQuote Reply
CRUSHELL
SKQuote Reply
WHO LOVES YA, BABY?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Yep (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
ADDISON MUSCLE
BerzeliusQuote Reply
I never doubted them for a second.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Those bums only scored seven, smh.
BerzeliusQuote Reply
That was fun.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is seven runs OK?
Edit: damn, beaten to the punch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was a walk off home run I recently enjoyed.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-going-on-with-the-cubs/
PerkinsQuote Reply
I love how Carl Edwards, Jr. scored the decisive run.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Left during the bottom of the 8th, anything interesting happen?
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
I think a proven closer blew a save.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-7-brewers-4-4-19-17/
berseliusQuote Reply