I like this matchup much more in the regular season than as a possible World Series matchup going into last postseason. I underrated the Indians by a lot, but I still think that Boston was the best team in the AL last year.
Team Leaders
Cubs
- OBP: Anthony Rizzo (.400)
- ISO: Rizzo (.241)
- HR: Rizzo (5)
- R+RBI: Addison Russell (29)
- wRC+: Rizzo (145)
- BSR: Jay (1.6)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (10.58)
- SP BB/9: Arrieta (1.82)
- SP FIP: Jon Lester (3.55)
- RP K/9: Pedro Strop (12.15)
- RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (0.00)
- RP FIP: Wade Davis (1.69)
- WAR: Bryant (1.0)
Sox
- OBP: Andrew Benintendi (.419)
- ISO: Mitch Moreland (.227)
- HR: Pablo Sandoval (3)
- R+RBI: Benintendi (22)
- wRC+: Moreland (151)
- BSR: Jackie Bradley Jr (0.7)
- SP K/9: Chris Sale (12.74)
- SP BB/9: Sale (1.82)
- SP FIP: Sale (1.19)
- RP K/9: Craig Kimbrel (16.39)
- RP BB/9: Kimbrel (1.93)
- RP FIP: Kimbrel (1.69)
- WAR: Sale (1.5)
Thank the maker that the Cubs dodge Sale in this series.
Injuries, news, blood feuds, etc.
The Red Sox have had a few notable players go down in the early going, including big signing David Price who is out with elbow/forearm soreness. Those specific injuries always set off alarm bells. Panda got off to a good start on the year but is on the shelf with a groin strain, And Brock Holt (o/) is on the DL with vertigo. I thought there might be a suspension or two stemming from their beanball war with Baltimore last weekend, but I can't find anything on a quick search.
Nothing much breweing for the Cubs, though seventh starter Eddie Butler hit the DL this week with a minor ankle injury.
Probable Pitchers
Current K/9, BB/9, ERA, xFIP and projected ERA listed for each pitcher.
Friday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (10.58, 1.82, 3.65, 2.99, 3.16) vs Drew Pomeranz, LHP (11.49, 2.87, 4.60, 3.13, 3.80), 6:10 PM CT
Despite the much discussed velocity strangeness this year, Arrieta has gotten great results. He's had bad luck with balls leaving the yard, and the rest of his peripherals are solid. If it's working, then it's working I guess.
I keep mixing up Pomeranz with Porcello. He had a rocky start to his career thanks to playing his first three seasons in Denver, but then was okay after moving to lower altitudes. The Padres flipped him to the Red Sox in the middle of last season and his numbers fell off drastically (aided by a spike in HR/FB), which may or may not have been due to an injury that the Padres failed to fully disclose. He's had two good and one not so good start so far on the year, and strikes me as a guy who will not go too deep into games.
Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (9.75, 3.00, 4.88, 3.43, 3.68) vs Steven Wright, KBP (4.58, 2.04, 8.66, 5.17, 4.43), 3:05 PM CT
I love watching knuckleballers pitch, just not against the Cubs. Wright has been crushed by opposing batters so far this year, including a four homer, eight run game against the Os where he failed to get out of the second.
Sunday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (6.55, 3.68, 4.50, 4.44, 3.45) vs Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (11.42, 6.23, 3.12, 4.38, 4.28), 7:05 PM CT
Kyle looked inexplicably cooked to start the year, but seemed to settle into his mechanics and look more like the Cyle of old in his last start. The Cubs shook up the rotation to make sure that he pitches on regular rest, hoping that the rhythm of it helps keep his tenuous hold on whatever he found.
The best way to describe Rodriguez's stuff is that he tried to bean Machado three times in his last start, and somehow missed on all of them. He had much better control in the minors/the last two years in Boston, but not so far in the bigs this year.
Comments
Just one suspension…wasn’t that much of a penalty IMO
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/04/26/matt-barnes-drops-appeal-suspension-machado
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Bears are just sofa king terrible.
EdwinQuote Reply
This assumes a zero-sum game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Schwarber (DH)
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist (LF)
Russell
Contreras
Heyward
Baez
Almora
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/
dmick89Quote Reply
OK, Cubs, try to play less stupid today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
KBoom!
PerkinsQuote Reply
That’s a good start.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Maybe not. The Cubs are 0-for-1 in games in which Bryant hit at least one homer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
They haven’t lost a game in which he hits just one home run.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn, thought Heyward had that one.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That was quick. Arrieta is Mr. Home Run Allowed this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pretty sure he’s now allowed more home runs this year than in all of 2015 and he threw 230 innings that year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jesus.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The hell was that?
PerkinsQuote Reply
See ya guys later.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
He’s over halfway there. 10 in all of 2015, and six so far in 2017.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Home run rates have risen drastically in all MLB since then.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
God damn it.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta looks like shit so far.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Hey Jake, you know this is your walk year, right?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Not sure four runs will win this one. Also not sure Jake won’t allow any more runs.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Goddamnit, Javy.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
It’s pretty amazing that he’s been able to hit at all. He has no idea of what pitch is coming to him, or where it is.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
He’s looked like 2014 Javy, minus the power. I’m not sure his defense is enough of an upgrade over Zobrist to justify putting him in there every day at this point. He needs to work some stuff out with his swing and plate discipline.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Arrieta is looking better. Where was this in the first inning?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Unassisted DP by Bryant!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Not sad at all to be missing this one.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
This has been a really good game save for the bottom half of the first inning.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Terrible AB by Javy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
One of us would have almost as good a chance of reaching base as Javy does, even if we just stood there and didn’t swing at anything.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ugly night for Heyward.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Heyward’s been chasing a lot of pitches, too.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant got screwed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Szczur is such a bad hitter.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’d have probably stuck with Montero over Szczur there. Even against a LHP. Also Schwarber is really slumping.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I love watching CJ pitch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow, Bryant gets screwed again. That’s a horseshit call.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This home plate ump really hates Bryant.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Addy was completely overpowered there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Making that call twice is the kind of thing that gets soccer referees beaten or murdered in other parts of the world. At least appeal to first base.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This ended up a lot closer than I would have guessed, when I saw the Cubs down 5-1 with the sox having the bases juiced
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Once again, the Cubs left a ton of RISP. I’d say they should have won it easily, but the pitching got them out of a bunch of jams, so the Red Sox could have easily scored a few more runs as well.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
They have too many guys in their lineup who aren’t hitting. Schwarber, Zobrist and Javy haven’t done a whole lot (or really really sucked in Javy’s case). Add in Jay and the pitcher and you’ve got a pretty shitty lineup so far this year though Jay has done pretty well so far. When two of your top four can’t hit too well, you’re not going to score too many runs. I expect both will hit, but they’re struggling in the early part of this season. I’m less convinced Javy will because he literally has no fucking clue if the pitch is a strike or a ball. All he sees is a pitch. They’re all the same to him. A slider that ends up three feet outside looks the same to him as a four-seamer up and in.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m also not especially worried about Schwarber or Zobrist. Schwarber’s K% is higher than you’d like, but he’s still got a great eye and a ton of power. I expect him to adjust.
I’m not sure what’s going on with Javy, but it seems like whatever changes he made to his approach in 2016 have completely disappeared. I haven’t taken a look at his swing itself, but since the World Series he’s swung with reckless abandon.
PerkinsQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Schwarber (dh)
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Heyward
Russell
Montero
Almora
Jay (lf)
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Probably good that Javy isn’t in to face a knuckleballer. Though it would be the rare matchup where neither the pitcher nor the batter knows where the ball is going.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Schwarber should stop striking out so much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Zobrist got screwed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Might be a bit too early to call this one.
EDIT:
Cubs lose. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs got through the first inning on less than 30 pitches, so this game feels like a success no matter what else happens.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Goddamnit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Not a good throw by Jay.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Too bad this pitching staff went to shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not well-played by Heyward.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ughhhhh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This team isn’t much fun to watch.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bryzzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good throw by Jay.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Miggy!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
We are good!
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Schwarber!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lo(dying laughing)ol
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Erd Sox
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Throw strikes, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
False.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Inverted M
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
That was a recent game I enjoyed viewing on my television set.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Why anybody stops watching this team when they fall behind early is a mystery to me.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
In other news, I just noticed that the Reds are in last place now. Wow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Adam Eaton has a torn ACL. Out for year. Yuk.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
They are dropping like Schwarber bloop singles.
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-7-red-sox-4-4-29-17/
berseliusQuote Reply