OSS: Cubs manage not to ruin a great start by Jon Lester.
Three up:
- Lester was great tonight, which is especially nice to see after the play about pieces of feces that was his last start before the break. Lester gave up just three hits with one walk and six strikeouts in seven innings, and was cruising along well enough that he probably could have gone out for another inning. He also had a great day at the plate, just missing a home run in his first PA, drawing a four-pitch walk in his final PA, and even gathering his first career stolen base.
- Rizzo remains hot at the plate – his 23rd home run of the season was a laser beam to CF. He also added a walk and a single on the night.
- The next highest by WPA was Addison Russell, who had a big pinch hit double in the eighth that ended up being the winning run.
Three down:
- It was not a great night for Wade Davis to say the least. He gave up three hits, two walks, a wild pitch, and nearly the game.
- The Cubs had Teheran on the ropes for much of the middle innings but failed to cash in on a lot of the RISP situations. Kyle Schwarber in particular had the lowest WPA on the day for the Cubs players.
- John Lackey pitches tomorrow.
Next up: John Lackey takes on rookie Sean Newcomb, the Braves first round pick in 2014. He’s made six starts this year and has been relatively solid, though the projection systems have him pegged to walk 5-6 batters per nine instead of his current MLB number of 3.98.
Comments
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Only 3 innings?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He pitched five. That tweet was made mid-game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Dodgers Elo rating has been nearly vertical after their middling start. I was surprised to find the 2013 Dodgers had a similar streak of unbeatability in the middle of the season going from 12 games under to 28 games over in the course of two months—a net of 40 games over. They then finished the last few weeks 6 games under.
Those are some crazy swings. In the spirit of crazy swings How many wins in the next thirty games does this team have to get to match preseason expectations—feeling, not win total? How many wins in a row would would do it?
ceruleanQuote Reply
To be fair to Kyle, he crushed a groundliner at 111mph that Freeman picked for the final out. That shit has been happening to him all year. It would have cleared the juiced bases easily.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Good point. Freeman was amazing yesterday.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’d say a 20 game win streak or winning something like 20 of 22 would get them back in that neighborhood.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
I would like to see the expected WPA of PA based on balled ball profiles—add in a shift-adjustment to see how the shift is affecting each player.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That would work. I was thinking 26 of 30.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
dmick89,
I thought about 16-in a row or 25 of 30. If memory serves, they went 25–6 (or maybe ot was 27–8) twice last year, so 25–5 would be a better stretch than they had done all of 2016. So long as they didn’t suffer any extended slump afterward, I think I would like their chances against the Nats and Dodgers and Astros, which if they win the division is the most likely path.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Also, two winning streaks of nine and three of seven and four of six in succession would make me feel like they were back for good.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
25-6 stretch last year. Wasn’t that to open the season?
I think the Cubs would be underdogs against all the teams you mentioned.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
I just want to see them avoid the losing streak. If they can do that they’ll win the division. I’m not confident they can do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs are only two out in the loss column, which I tend to look at more often down the stretch.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
And in July/August, I will think.
ceruleanQuote Reply
how about a stretch where they look good for like 2 or 3 games and then look like a bunch of minor league assholes for the next 2 or 3 games, thus remaining exactly at .500? would that do it for you guys?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
if so, guess what…YOU’RE IN LUCK!!!
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
(dying laughing) it was that type of thinking that got them into this mess.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I remember reading about a Lackey start maybe a month back where he turned it around after the first inning and overall had a pretty good game. After the game, he noted that he succeeded by throwing fewer strikes.
He maybe should keep trying to do that, since anything he puts in the zone is likely to end up in the seats.
PerkinsQuote Reply
WTF did I write?
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Well…as long as they don’t look like major league assholes.
BVSQuote Reply
Perkins,
He’s been much “better” at issuing walks this year.
But hey, never fear! 10 days off to cure olantar fasciitis is plenty. He’ll be A New Man.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I’m genuinely curious whether Hendricks replaces him or Montgomery in the rotation. I’m assuming Montgomery, but it’d be pretty interesting to see how Lackey would take a demotion to the bullpen.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
A horse in the bullpen. Sounds dangerous.
ceruleanQuote Reply
BVS,
i hear he’s in the best shape of his life
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Perkins,
Yeah, agreed. But Lackey hasn’t been good in the first inning, so I don’t see how he fits as a reliever. OTOH, he has had moments of pretty good sportsmanship, like honoring the injury contract clause with StL, so maybe…but OTOOH he’s kinda been calling out Maddon’s use of pitchers.
It could go either way…
BVSQuote Reply
cerulean,
+1
BVSQuote Reply
cerulean,
+1
EnricoPallazzo,
To be sure
BVSQuote Reply
Perkins,
He wouldn’t accept a move to the pen. He’d request a trade or go home until he was released. If the Cubs were really good and looking like strong contenders to repeat, he’d probably take the demotion and complain all the time.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sorry to hear that you are selling your house, Ryno.
http://www.avclub.com/article/sale-nightmare-house-filled-dolls-mannequins-and-t-258225
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
That was kind of my assumption. It’s almost like they never let Hammel go. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Too bad the Cardinals will go 66-6 to close out the year
berseliusQuote Reply
Righty loaded lineup today for Cubs
Rice CubeQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
LF Zobrist
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
SS Russell
CF Almora
RF Heyward
2B Baez
P Leoclos
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
LF Zobrist
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
SS Russell
CF Almora
RF Heyward
2B Javy
P Lackey
Or what that guy said ^
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Thanks for your service, Eddie.
Lackey -> Cubs
Butler -> optioned
mylesQuote Reply
Barves vs. Lackey Cubes:
Inciarte
Phillips
Freeman
Kemp
Fat Adams
Markakis
Kurt Suzuki
Camargo
Newcomb
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Well, this sucks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I know it kind of sucks, but I still think the Cubs can win the division. I wasn’t counting on much production from Correa anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
i dunno, i could see the correa injury causing the cubs to go back down to .500.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I like the way you staged it, Ryno—really helps prospective buyers imagine the things they could do in that home while conveying that “lived-in” feel.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Why didn’t Atlanta put a retractable roof on this stadium?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The taxpayers ran out of money.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I hope they have more money when they build their next stadium five years from now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So…Yankees about to get Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Kahnle for prospects. Not sure which prospects. But wow.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I am guessing another Frazier.
For symmetry, obvs.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Any ide what time this will start?
dmick89Quote Reply
Brewers losing…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
9:05 CT was the last update and they haven’t wavered from that…yet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brewers lose.
Cardinals did not lose.
Cubs are starting.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rivero seems like the real deal. A lefty who throws triple digits. Reminds me of somebody else.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I am surprised that there are so many people still in the stands.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Let’s not jinx the extra innings game here, JD.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
cerulean,
Clayton Richard?
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d probably go 2-3 with a home run and a walk against Lackey.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lackey -> sucks
MylesQuote Reply
Clayton certainly uses three digits to throw the ball.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I am shocked—SHOCKED—to see that he gave up a homerun…in the second inning instead of the first.
ceruleanQuote Reply
JAVY11!!!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Willson!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
WIILIE
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
WillCo love you baby!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Is this lead Lackey-proof?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Both of those homers were crushed and got out in a hurry.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
No lead is Lackey-proof.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It would be nice if Lackey would strike a batter out once in a while.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Big Willie Style
MylesQuote Reply
You know, Javy, you could have achieved the same result by laying off any of the last five pitches.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
One-out sac bunt. Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Dodgers are going to win no less than 130 games this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Leadoff walk. Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It should be Schwarber or Happ pinch-hitting.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Joe pinch hitting for a starter when that’s the right move? It’s a bold strategy, Cotton.
PerkinsQuote Reply
See?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Right idea, bad execution.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What happened to Joe? Is he alright? I mean, he pinch-hit for the pitcher.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Lackey had at least another get in trouble and get taken out in the bottom half of the inning in him.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Anyway, Lack had a nice outing if you only look at runs allowed and ignore the peripherals.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Wasn’t he at least striking people out early in the season?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Inverted M
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I don’t know why everyone is acting like I’m selling all my decorations too.
RynoQuote Reply
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-buyers-and-sellers-guide-to-the-mlb-trade-deadline/
dmick89Quote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Jay
Bryant
Rizzo
Happ
Schwarber
Baez
Russell
Caratini
Montgomery
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
dmick89,
The Cubs have now passed the Indians by Elo. A winning streak with some dominant wins will do that.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’m waiting to see how they respond after a loss. This team loves losing streaks so my fear is that after this ends, they’ll lose 3-5 games and be right back where they were.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Hope you wait a long time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs are adjusting the rotation to get Quintana a start against both the Cardinals and Brewers. I like it.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
So is that Arrieta, Lester, Quintana this weekend?
dmick89Quote Reply
I hope so too.
dmick89Quote Reply
How bad does this Byrant thing look?
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Bryant was in pain, but it’s hard to tell with fingers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Addy!
dmick89Quote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yes, it looks that way. In either case, both Lester and Quintana would have faced the Cardinals, but this order lines up Quintana to face the Brewers and miss the White Sox, who probably have a better book on him than most teams.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ugh, Bryant again? Here’s hoping it’s nothing serious.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Montgomery!!!!!!!!!!!
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
(dying laughing), Monty!
berseliusQuote Reply
What’s up with Freeman being pulled from the game?
/Gameday watcher
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Len and JD just noticed he had been taken out. Not sure why.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sprained pinky for Bryant, he is day to day
berseliusQuote Reply
(La) STELLA!!!!!
PerkinsQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
That’s a relief.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Can we release Grimm? Please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Monty gave up zero net runs today.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The organist was playing Aqualung. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
War Bear needs to hit a HR in this game to get the TTO cycle.
berseliusQuote Reply
Is Uehara warming up for the eighth?
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe not anymore (dying laughing)
JAVY
berseliusQuote Reply
Javy!!!
dmick89Quote Reply
Just headin’ out to pick up some JAVYBOMBS.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Russell is 4–4? Is this the alternate reality we thought we were getting at the beginning of the year?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hector Rondon, mop-up guy, just what we were expecting a year a go today (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
So Rondon just strikes everyone out now? I remember him.
ceruleanQuote Reply
$M^{-6}$
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
He’s hitting 98. Looking pretty good, but it’s Barves and low leverage.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berselius,
What’s crazy is they are lacking mop-up guys, save Grimm, maybe.
ceruleanQuote Reply
So the best case scenario remains in tact. Just 68 more wins to go.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Road sweeps are fun. Injuries to star players are not.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Grimm is more liable to shit on the mound than clean it up
mylesQuote Reply
This nonsense has gone on long enough. A hot dog is a sandwich. People might not say the phrase “hot dog sandwich” but it doesn’t change the fact that a hot dog belongs to the sandwich family. A piece of meat, between two slices of bread, = sandwich. Happy national hot dog day.
EdwinQuote Reply
Who puts a hot dog between two slices of bread?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Bun, bread, same thing.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
False. A hot dog on bread sucks. A hot dog on a bun is edible.
dmick89Quote Reply
What do you have against open faced sandwiches?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I feel like my words are being twisted against me.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
When I say “bird”, do you think of a penguin or an ostrich? No? When I say “car”, you probably imagine something that a person drives on a road, not something pulled by a train. The term “sandwich” is similarly fuzzy and dynamic. For some, anything that satisfies the bread-meat-bread form will be a sandwich, but then what about open-face sandwiches? What about breadbowls? What about wraps? Lettuce wraps?
Changing domains, what about the essential nature of a sandwich, the outer-inner-outer-ness of sandwichosity? Like a linebacker-quarterback-linebacker? Or semi-car-semi? Or one’s state in the non-window, non-aisle seat on a plane? See how this quickly gets out of hand?
And no, a hot dog is not a sandwich, it’s a kind of meat product. You are thinking of a hot dog sandwich. (dying laughing)
(I recommend Surfaces and Essences by Hofstadter and Sander if you are into thinking about this kind of thing. There is an audiobook for it, if you’re into that kind of thing.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is the purpose words. It’s called communication. Do you feel you are being communicated improperly? Do you have instructions?
Oh, you do. Well, I don’t read instructions—they violate my sense of communication.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
On the Sandwich Alignment Chart, I’m a True Neutral, possibly straying into a Structural rebel/ingreadietn Neutral.
EdwinQuote Reply
cerulean,
Words, words, words.
EdwinQuote Reply
What about a hot pocket?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Hot Pockets are the Ramsay Bolton of the Sandwich family.
EdwinQuote Reply
Is a gyros a sandwich?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Send me one and I’ll get back to you.
MylesQuote Reply
Even more horrific.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Clayton Richard did a thing.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yoan Moncada’s first PA is not an AB.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Sox then insisted on bunting to move the runners over and bunted into a DP that got the lead runner (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Gave up 11 runs?
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Pirates just tied it up off Knebel. Going into extra innings.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Brewers lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Brewers lose
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
1.5 back
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ten earned. That’s probably about as rare as no-hitters.
ceruleanQuote Reply
As Brett pointed out, Cubs and Brewers are tied in the loss column.
PerkinsQuote Reply
cerulean,
George LeClair allowed 21 runs in 1914. He did throw 8 innings though. (dying laughing)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/IND/IND191408160.shtml
dmick89Quote Reply
Apparently Clarence Woods picked up a save in that 21-6 game. How is that possible?
I wouldn’t even trust Grimm with a 15-run save.
dmick89Quote Reply
When it comes to hot dogs I’m more annoyed by the lame Chicago ketchup ban.
I mean, you can argue that ketchup is a bad condiment in general; a childish one, with nothing to offer but sugary lubrication. That is a defensible position. But if you have time for ketchup in other areas, why be such a nazi when it comes to dogs?
Unless you drown the hot dog in it, you still taste the hot dog. You still taste the onions, the mustard, and whatever else you put on it. Ketchup doesn’t kill it, because ketchup is mild with a submissive flavor (if used in moderation).
Telling people how to enjoy food: sure sign of a truly decadent civilization.
SKQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
He made a great choice for the header photo on that one.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
The Cubs playoff odds on BP have increased by 30% in the past week.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
538 and FG are also giving them very good odds, though FG’s model has been pretty high on them all along.
Both are projecting them for around 89 wins, which seemed nigh impossible a week ago. Here’s hoping they go at least another week before losing a game.
PerkinsQuote Reply
538 is projecting the Dodgers to win 110. Unreal.
But the real question is, will it be Dodgers in 5?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Dodgers in 4 against anyone. They could play poorly and win in 5.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I pity the NL Wild Card team that has to play them.
I’m assuming the other NLDS will be the Cubs against the Nationals, and even though they’re really good, I don’t hate the Cubs’ chances in a series against a Dusty Baker-managed team.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I’m holding off on any celebrations about this team being back until they lose a game. I still expect them to lose several in a row.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
I haven’t had a hot dog in a long time and haven’t had one in Chicago since I was about 12 years old. I never liked ketchup growing up, but wouldn’t those places have ketchup with the french fries they serve?
dmick89Quote Reply
Also fair. If they can avoid a losing streak the next time they lose a game, I’ll remain cautiously optimistic.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ketchup is always available at a hot dog stand. Just some hot dog snobs turn their nose up at you if you put ketchup on it. It’s really a mystery while people feel so strongly about it.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Yeah, of all the things that actually matter, that’s not even close to one of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
Why do they call it a ketchup ban? Fuck them.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
This is the kind of outrage that promotes brand awareness—probably encouraged or even prompted by Vienna Beef amd Red Hot Chicago. It’s the any news is good news kind of guerrilla marketing that got Trump elected.
These kinds of conflicts overwhelm our sense of proper scale of fuck-given-ness by their arbitrary absurdity while we turn a blind eye to the innumerable actual terrible or messed-up things that could really make a difference. Unfortunately, knowing that the stakes are so low likely helps make it a more attractive topic of outrage.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Speaking of scale, at our current population growth rate of about 1.1% a year, it will take less than 9000 years to use up all of the particles in the universe just to comprise human bodies.
#WeAreAllTheStardust
ceruleanQuote Reply
That has to be an error. The save didn’t come into being until much later, so my guess is whatever algorithm checked to see whether a save should be applied failed or a human entering data hit the wrong button. Either way, E10, -1 Data Run Saved.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I know you said earned runs, but I decided to look for runs allowed. A starter has given up 10 or more runs 1235 times, but most of them were back when pitchers regularly completed games.
dmick89Quote Reply
Brewers down 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th.
dmick89Quote Reply
Brewers lose again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
1 game back. Now I’d be alright if the Pirates started losing again.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, I don’t mean in all of history. Given the evolution and expansion of the bullpen, a starter left out there to just wear it doesn’t often happen.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I WONDER WHAT FN THING KATO IS GOING TO SAY.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, I might narrow it down later, but I was actually curious. 1235 times is a lot, but considering how many games have been played and how pitchers used to throw the entire game, it’s not as many as I expected.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I remember Jason Marquis being pissed at La Russa for leaving him in the game when his stuff wasn’t there to the tune of 13 earned runs. The team that signed him after such a performance must have been a real winner.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It’s irrational given recent performance, but I have the feeling the Barves will sweep the Doggers.
EDIT: It’s a four-game series in LA with Kershaw in the final game. Completely and utterly irrational.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Dillon Maples has a better BB-rate this year than Dellin Betances. Similar K-rate too. I like living on the edge.
ceruleanQuote Reply
bravo, Ryno. Nailed it.
SKQuote Reply
If you take away the four games the Dodgers will win, I agree. I think it’s about 50/50 that they never lose again this year. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) was on Sam Harris’s podcast. It may be worth a listen just to understand the lengths that some will go to interpret the rhetoric and actions of Donald Trump in a non-malicious way.
But really, this connoisseur of persuasion has persuaded himself that Donny is a master persuader. All I see are the underhanded manipulations of a six-year-old—to which I am immune.
ceruleanQuote Reply
And he’s not even all that successful at manipulating people in my opinion. Outside of winning the GOP primary, which really comes down to there being a million people running for it, I’m not sure he’s succeeded too much along the way. His base is about the same size as it was when he started. He lost the election, but the electoral college saved him. He hasn’t been able to accomplish shit since he’s taken office other than putting pen to paper to push some of his agenda through. The GOP controls the house and senate and they really haven’t come close to passing their own version of healthcare. The wall is never happening. The muslim ban has been partially overturned. It’s been one misstep after another. It really boggles my mind how some analysts pretend as if he’s accomplished much.
dmick89Quote Reply
To wit: He steps in his own mouth.
ceruleanQuote Reply
You’re 25% there.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
What’s worse: ketchup on a hot dog or doing the wave?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Whoa-oh, living on half a prayer.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-st-louis-cardinals-46-49-at-chicago-cubs-49-45/
berseliusQuote Reply