NLCS Game 5: Dodgers 11, Cubs 1

In Playoffs, Postgame by berselius77 Comments

OSS: Well, it wasn't a sweep.

Two up:

  1. At least this one was over quickly.
  2. Um…the pitching staff only issued two walks?
  3. Time to deal with my DVR/streaming backlog! Hannibal and Halt and Catch Fire, I'm looking at you.

Three down:

  1. Quintana just didn't have it tonight, and the Dodgers made him pay. I look forward to his next few years in a Cubs uniform, and odds are decent that he'll be pitching in a NLCS again soon. I still think that's the best move the Cubs have made since the Russell trade.
  2. Bryant finally homered, in about as meaningless a situation as you could find in the entire playoffs. The whole offense laid an egg once again, though at least there's relatively less shame in doing so against Kershaw.
  3. Expectations were high going into the season, so this feels like a big disappointment. Lots of sophomore slumps, but hopefully some bouncebacks next year.

Next up: Time to root for Starlin Castro or Cubs Legend Marwin Gonzalez to get a ring, depending on your level of #NeverYankees

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  5. Perkins

    I hope Starlin gets a ring and a bunch of the Dodgers suffer serious career-threatening injuries. Especially that bearded dipshit Justin Turner.

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  7. Perkins

    The only thing about this year that legitimately angers me is that they threw away the whole first half and made things a lot more interesting than they had to be.

    Weird shit happens in the postseason, and I don’t think anyone disputes that the Dodgers are a better team. It’s kind of impressive that they beat the Nats.

    Three consecutive NLCS appearances is pretty impressive, especially since they already have a World Series in the bag. Here’s hoping next year makes that four and two.

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  12. Ryno

    Perkins:
    Weird shit happens in the postseason, and I don’t think anyone disputes that the Dodgers are a better team. It’s kind of impressive that they beat the Nats.

    Three consecutive NLCS appearances is pretty impressive, especially since they already have a World Series in the bag.

    This.

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  17. Ryno

    When Kris Bryant finally homered, it meant absolutely nothing other than avoiding an embarrassing shutout. (Thought exercise: Would it have been worse to lose an elimination game 11-0, or was 11-1 bad enough?)
    — Alvin

    I was going to comment on his use of the word exercise, but then I remembered what he looks like.

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  19. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    It’s awfully easy to say you’re going to address the issue, but actually doing it is another story. I think you can remake your bullpen in one offseason, but in the end I think it’s going to take a lot of luck for the Cubs to have a good bullpen next year. They have enough other holes that I don’t see them picking up a closer through free agency. I hope the Cubs have some money to spend this offseason. They’re going to need it.

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  21. Ryno

    The Cubs lost, and someone else won…
    — Alvin

    If I were Alvin’s editor, this is what I would’ve cut his post down to.

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  25. Perkins

    dmick89:
    How much would Jake Arrieta cost?

    I bet he gets $150MM over 5-6 years. He’s not as good as he looked in 2014-early 2016, but someone will probably pay him. I just don’t think it will be the Cubs, unless his market is less robust than anticipated.

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  27. dmick89

    Perkins,

    Yeah, I was thinking close to that and that the Cubs would probably lose interest above 5/125. I don’t think it’s a lock that he gets 5/150. I guess I could see 6/150. Didn’t the Cubs try to extend him for about $175 million or something awhile back? Glad that didn’t happen.

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  28. Ryno

    So apparently Kyle Shanahan said watching CJ Beathard, Iowa lose 30-3 vs. Florida in Outback Bowl is where he learned a lot about the QB. Seeing his toughness.

    Beathard went 7/23 for 55 yards and 3 INT in that game. But hey, toughness.

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  29. Author
    berselius

    I got a question on the EW podcast today about awful team-wide WPA performances, inspired by the Cubs game 1 performance in this series.

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  30. Author
    berselius

    Also on EW, they talked about possible Jake Arrieta contract numbers, and one person suggested 3/39. Ouch. It may end up being closer to his actual value than what he might actually get.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: They have enough other holes that I don’t see them picking up a closer through free agency. I hope the Cubs have some money to spend this offseason. They’re going to need it.

    I’d be surprised if the Cubs dumped money on a closer even if there wasn’t much else to address. If they were going to do that they would have done it with Chapman or Jansen. They’re sure as shit not going to do it with Wade Davis, who really wasn’t all that great this year. And then, I dunno, is there anyone worth discussing after him?

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  32. Smokestack Lightning

    Have to say I’m a little irked at everyone in media, even smart kids baseball media, jumping in to declare the Cubs all but a bad team going forward. While after last year the dynasty was inevitable. Recency bias is a motherfucker.

    Given the organizational offseason decisions last year, this type of year, a semi-down year, was in some respects by design. 2017 was in many ways paying the bill for going all-in on 2016. And they still made it within 3 wins of the World Series.

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  34. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Have to say I’m a little irked at everyone in media, even smart kids baseball media, jumping in to declare the Cubs all but a bad team going forward. While after last year the dynasty was inevitable. Recency bias is a motherfucker.

    Who has done this?

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  38. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Fangraphs already had an article up about pumping the brakes on calling the Cubs a dynasty. It wasn’t anything any of us is unaware of (need more good starting pitchers, need more reliable relievers, outfield has several people with great upside, but relatively low floors, so it’s hard to depend on production from there).

    I’m sure there are more meatball versions of that take out there, but I wouldn’t say the Cubs are in anything like dire straits. They have a talented core, a lot of money, and a very good front office.

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  39. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Given the organizational offseason decisions last year, this type of year, a semi-down year, was in some respects by design. 2017 was in many ways paying the bill for going all-in on 2016. And they still made it within 3 wins of the World Series.

    My primary complaint about this season is how poorly they played for the majority of the season. I have no problems with them losing to the Dodgers and wouldn’t have cared much if they lost to the Nationals. The Cubs got beat by a team that is a lot better than they are. It happens.

    If anyone wants to complain, they should complain about the first three and a half months in my opinion. That’s not to say there aren’t things that need addressed. Of course there is. That’s true of any team, but as for how they performed this season, they did pretty damn well when you consider how much they sucked in the first few months. Teams lose in the postseason. Do people think the Indians are fucked too?

    I guess this is why I don’t read much about baseball anymore.

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  40. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I never quite understood the whole dynasty talk. That’s incredibly difficult in today’s game and we may never see another one. The Cubs have made three consecutive league championship series. That’s probably about as good as teams can hope to do.

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  41. Rizzo the Rat

    The Dodgers win the division title seemingly every year, but somehow haven’t won the pennant since the Kirk Gibson homer.

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  42. Perkins

    Smokestack Lightning:
    Given the organizational offseason decisions last year, this type of year, a semi-down year, was in some respects by design. 2017 was in many ways paying the bill for going all-in on 2016. And they still made it within 3 wins of the World Series.

    This right here. Even with terrible years from Zobrist, Heyward, and Schwarber, injuries to Russell, Contreras, and most of the rotation, and a largely unreliable bullpen, they won 92 games and the division and bounced a likely more talented Nationals team from the postseason.

    I assume a lot of the injuries and fatigue were at least somewhat correlated with the deep postseason runs of the prior two seasons and intense focus on getting through the World Series. This year, they had so much shit not break their way and they still made it really far.

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  43. Rizzo the Rat

    The whole rotation losing 1-2 mph (and going to the DL) was the biggest thing that went wrong this year. That was weird.

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  45. Rizzo the Rat

    Kluber doesn’t lose any velo, and he pitched in the WS three times. I doubt the post-season run can be blamed entirely.

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  46. Rizzo the Rat

    Perkins,

    Defense was good, by any measure. Obviously, they took a hit with Schwarber, and regression toward the mean was inevitable. But I don’t think it was a big problem.

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  47. Author
    berselius

    Perkins: This right here. Even with terrible years from Zobrist, Heyward, and Schwarber, injuries to Russell, Contreras, and most of the rotation, and a largely unreliable bullpen, they won 92 games and the division and bounced a likely more talented Nationals team from the postseason.

    I assume a lot of the injuries and fatigue were at least somewhat correlated with the deep postseason runs of the prior two seasons and intense focus on getting through the World Series. This year, they had so much shit not break their way and they still made it really far.

    It’s like 2009 to the nth degree – zillions of things went wrong and that team still had a winning record. Hopefully next year isn’t a repeat of 2010 (dying laughing).

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  48. Author
    berselius

    berselius: It’s like 2009 to the nth degree – zillions of things went wrong and that team still had a winning record. Hopefully next year isn’t a repeat of 2010 (dying laughing).

    Holy crap, I completely forgot that Lee and Ramirez combined for a negative bWAR in 2010. Hopefully that doesn’t extend to next year’s team as well (dying laughing).

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  51. dmick89

    Ryno,

    I think this is a big part of it. The velocity loss was strange and because of that it wasn’t all that surprising that the pitchers spent time on the DL. It was also strange late in the season to see the Cubs having trouble striking out the Rays and Brewers.

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  52. Ryno

    dmick89,

    That and all the walks. I didn’t watch enough regular season to offer any kind of explanation, but the Cubs pitchers were seriously out of control…if you will.

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  53. dmick89

    Ryno,

    I think part of the walks in the postseason is who they were playing. Rendon, Harper and Werth are difficult guys to get out outside of the zone. Almost every player on the Dodgers is. That was certainly part of it and I have no idea what caused the rest of the control issues.

    I also think if we’re talking postseason, the Cubs put very little pressure on their opponents. They did some against the Nationals, but nothing against the Dodgers. Even if the bullpen had pitched well in the postseason, the results would have been the exact same. The offense was so bad that it just didn’t matter what the pitching did.

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  54. Ryno

    dmick89,

    Their approach at the plate was pretty bad all postseason. And they apparently struggled with off-speed pitches just like last year (except for the last couple of WS games).

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  57. Berselius is too lazy to login

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Willson’s not great, but there’s not much he could have done with some of those Arrieta pitches. He was missing spots by feet (dying laughing).

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  59. Myles

    berselius:
    Also on EW, they talked about possible Jake Arrieta contract numbers, and one person suggested 3/39. Ouch. It may end up being closer to his actual value than what he might actually get.

    Remember on our podcast when I said that he wouldn’t get 100MM+? That seemed wrong basically as soon as I said it, but according to that, I might as well said he’s getting 10% of a franchise.

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  60. Myles

    The Cubs have won 292 regular season games over the past 3 years, and 16 postseason games over the past 3 years. That’s a lot of games, in my opinion.

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  62. dmick89

    Berselius is too lazy to login,

    (dying laughing) his pitches were moving all over. I thought Willson really improved at blocking pitches this year so I’m hoping he improves some at framing, though I’ll be honest and admit I don’t particularly care about it one way or the other. Better framing would have helped, but it’s not like it would have turned these pitching performances into good outings or anything. I think there’s a better chance Willson improves a few more runs offensively than there is that he improves much at framing so that’s probably what I’d focus on.

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  64. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I do too. In this light, his press conference after the NLDS seemed to be the words of a man resigned to never winning a World Series as a manager.

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  65. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I wasn’t a big fan of Dusty’s managerial style, but I always thought he seemed like a really good guy. He was a manager the players loved playing for and that’s worth something. It’s one of the things that Joe gets the highest marks for in my opinion.

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  66. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Rizzo the Rat,

    I never quite understood the whole dynasty talk. That’s incredibly difficult in today’s game and we may never see another one. The Cubs have made three consecutive league championship series. That’s probably about as good as teams can hope to do.

    I never quite got it either. And I imagine we’ll be rolling our eyes when the Astros/Yankees/Dodgers win and the dynasty talk shifts to them. The difference in quality in the front offices across baseball is just not as much as it used to be. A lot of smart organizations out there. And the playoff format will continue bouncing out really good teams.

    And the Cubs’ future is brightest where it matters most: within the division. Barring some really weird, unforeseen stuff, they should still own the NL Central for the next couple of years. Maybe a dynasty isn’t in the offing, and it probably never really was, but another World Series seems eminently doable before this core breaks up. And if along the way they can keep winning division titles and getting into the postseason, the hell else we looking for?

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  67. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Perkins,

    I actually feel a little sorry for Dusty.

    I actually feel a lot sorry for him. He’s been at the helm of some very good teams throughout his career. Won at every stop, IIRC. The Nats didn’t lose because of anything he did wrong, I didn’t think. They just got varianced. It happens.

    Yeah, the Nats are fucking stupid. They won 95 and 97 games under Dusty. He wasn’t the problem. They didn’t have a problem, actually. Postseason baseball is just a bitch.

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  68. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: And if along the way they can keep winning division titles and getting into the postseason, the hell else we looking for?

    Yeah, if they keep winning the division I’ll be happy and sooner or later they’ll win another world series.

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  69. dmick89

    I know Kris Bryant hasn’t wanted to sign an extension, but I think it’s time the Cubs get a little more serious about trying to lock him up. They’re not going to be able to do it on as team friendly a deal as they’d like, but they could probably do it for less than they’d end up paying a few years from now. I assume if he gets to free agency that he’s gone and that would kind of suck. I think the Cubs need to start talking 8 to 10 years and a lot of money.

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